2015 off season thread

[ampersand5]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been a thread on this. Please feel free to share your thoughts on the best/worst signings in FA in addition to how your favourite team fared.

If nobody cares about player acquisition, we can talk about how the Spurs have materially diminished the integrity of the NBA.

[bondom343]

Personally, I like:

Milwaukee getting an actual free agent, I'm excited to see them.
I love PHX and Chandler, I think he's a great mentor to Len and even w/o LMA he's a great player who could have some solid results.
NY didn't get stupid after striking out. The only questionable move was Derrick Williams.
Washington with a few small moves (Grunfeld surprisingly does well to me) with the draft trade for Oubre, getting Dudley, and signing Neal.

I don't like:
Reggie Jackson's contract, at least til he proves it more than 20 games.
Boston just confused me, taking more guards and still having no bigs of any note.
The Carroll contract for Toronto.

At least among the non major/obviously good moves (LMA, Gasol, Leonard, Davis, Butler).

[BasketDork]

David West gave up over $11million for the opportunity to win a ring. I complain all the time about guys caring more about money than winning, for instance Kobe, 2 yrs ago taking the max, and thus financially hogtying the Lakers up from being able to sign anybody else. Grant it, he knew it'd be his last contract and opportunity to take as much money as he could, but it meant 2 years of crappy Lakers teams playing around him. SELFISH. I applaud David West for him taking the veteran minimum, for the opportunity to win a ring. Its a rare occurrence.

[Crow]

By RPM estimate, Celts had 4 interior players in positive territory, 2 guards (both PGs). They need better wings and maybe another "swing" (beyond Jerebko). Many love Crowder but RPM gave him a ho-hum -0.4 estimate.

[ampersand5]

David West gave up over $11million for the opportunity to win a ring. I complain all the time about guys caring more about money than winning, for instance Kobe, 2 yrs ago taking the max, and thus financially hogtying the Lakers up from being able to sign anybody else. Grant it, he knew it'd be his last contract and opportunity to take as much money as he could, but it meant 2 years of crappy Lakers teams playing around him. SELFISH. I applaud David West for him taking the veteran minimum, for the opportunity to win a ring. Its a rare occurrence.

Out of curiosity, are you a fan of any particular NBA teams or just the league as a whole?

David West (and to a lesser extent, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan) have helped turn 25 NBA teams into the Washington Generals.

The existence of a maximum contract leads to elite players congregating on certain teams at an extremely undervalued rate. The teams with this advantage then benefit even more by having veterans take substantial pay cuts to play with them.

It's July 7th, 2015 and I can already tell you that 25 teams in the NBA do not have a material opportunity of winning a a championship.

[ampersand5]

By RPM estimate, Celts had 4 interior players in positive territory, 2 guards (both PGs). They need better wings and maybe another "swing" (beyond Jerebko). Many love Crowder but RPM gave him a ho-hum -0.4 estimate.

While I think that adjusted +/ is a truly amazing (and beautiful) statistic, I have problems evaluating free agents through this lens. All NBA teams know about the stat. Sure you might have a couple dumb franchises, but the majority of teams make their player acquisitions based on far more in depth and comprehensive analysis.

[Crow]

It is not just the salary cap and sacrifice of players to win that makes many teams uncompetitive for the top. Not so good to bad decisions based on less than great analysis is surely a major factor. Maybe the biggest.

If the Kings new acquisitions don't help, maybe Rondo's RPM of estimate of -3.2 and Belinelli's -3.1 this past season will look more relevant to others than whatever the Kings analysis comprised that presumably contributed to their targeting. Kuofos' plus 0.7 was ok but doesn't project to balance out more than a sliver of the other two.

The narrative in Portland using RPM estimate is lose 3 starters who are RPM positive, 2 strongly, and add 5 free agents (3 RPM negative, 1 slightly positive, 1 nicely positive) and the Blazers are likely to be much worse and probably somewhat short of what their hopes were using whatever they used.

Knicks' 4 major signings are 3 RPM negative (one bad, one horrendous) and one slightly positive. How is it goink to go? Bad and inline with RPM or well in defiance of RPM estimate guidance? I know which way I lean.

I know it is not this simple but I don't give the benefit of the doubt automatically or easily to the middle or lower tier insiders, based on their results, especially when their decisions go strongly against the grain of RPM or multi-seasons of RPM and RAPM. RPM isn't the only tool to consult, but many times it seems to be given little or no weight. Single season RPM might be more context specific than ideal but it still seems to do a pretty good job of predicting next season. Most of the acquired negatives have several consecutive negative estimates to reinforce that guess.

[ampersand5]

extremely relevant

EDIT: not sure why the link didn't appear before, but here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the- ... iors-good/

[bondom343]

DJ lost his mind, that was classless to me.

[DSMok1]

It seems to me that Dan Fegan pressured DeAndre Jordan into leaving and going to the Mavericks, but then when Jordan had longer to think about it he had second thoughts and finally just wanted to go to the safer place, the place that he already knew. I think his only mistake was allowing his agent to convince him to agree quickly. He should have taken time like LaMarcus Aldridge did.

[BasketDork]

I'm a fan of basketball and analytics, if I had to pick a favorite team ,I used to follow the Magic, still do, to an extent, but, now I watch basketball for the players, rather than teams..I agree that the CBA makes it difficult for there to be parity in the NBA, but the PA agreed to it, so it is what it is for now. San Antonio has just become the New England of the NBA, where guys will take a pay cut for a shot at the chip.

[Crow]

Bucks dumping Zaza seems pretty bad / insane to me, given his rpm estimate. 16th best in NBA.

[bondom343]

Zaza seems to be on a decline though, and the Bucks have a ton of young guys they'd rather give minutes to. The Vasquez trade though.....

[rebkell]

I've come to the conclusion, that Kidd will get what he needs out the players he has. I was a little surprised they let Dudley go, might have been doubt about his health. As a Grizzlies fan, I wanted Jordan to go to Dallas. LOL and now we've got Barnes, oh my It's gonna be tough to pull for his physical bully ball.

[Crow]

Zaza last season: 2nd best PER of career, 2nd best OR%, best steal%, best assist%, tied for best BPM.

But after seeing his RAPM history steady around neutral, ok.

Last season's RPM could be fluke or could indeed be endorsement of Kidd as coach. Would have to look into it further. Can Kidd do it again with another center? Were there extreme colinearity issues?

Update: Both his subs were negative. Lead team in win% on court, net 48. 16 of top 20 lineups used were positive. If you think you can do better than that, then do it. I still have some doubts though.