http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/enes ... 538twitter
I followed up on the list in Neil's article, looking for bigs with 15pt / 8 reb averages (of any age) and like Enes below 7% assist rate and worse than 105 defensive rating in last 25 years.
corrected link http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=Y
Of this short list of similar players, only Amare got out of the first round that season. The context? Steve Nash, D'Antoni, run and use a strong 3pt attack.
With so little positive example can't say there is only one way to succeed with such a player but does the lack of playoff success suggest that this is at least a risky if not bad decision by Presti? How similar or different will Donovan and next season's Thunder with Russ, KD, Kanter be to 2009-2010 Suns or the best past Thunder teams?
What is Presti's counter-argument to Neil's article and my extension to it? Does he believe Thunder with Kanter can somehow by like Thunder with Perkins on defense? Is this plausible with Donovan? Is he somehow expecting Thunder to be like the Spurs (current or past)? Who does he compare Kanter to and what level of success did the team have? Is he guilty of buying Kanter as a set of individual boxscore stats and ignoring team data and RPM?
If not, what is this data that must trump the team and holistic impact data that others see? There are some positive raw on/off team Factors but the overall on/off net points is slightly negative and Kanter's larger negative RPM suggests that his average context is probably favorable and that he is pulling it down not up.
Does he believe so heavily in culture and coach that he believes it can significantly change Kanter and his impact? We'll see what happens. And whether Kanter gets traded before deal is done and whether it is at or near his valuation of Kanter or significantly less.
Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team results
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
Just looking up those numbers (the bbr link doesn't work for me) and a few others had those numbers in the past w/ some success, including Moses Malone w/ Philly. I wasn't a fan of the price but the argument for it is overall simplistic:
1. Kanter still likely splits minutes with Adams, I don't think the price tag guarantees anything.
2. Presti's choice wasn't Kanter or the next best available, it was Kanter or finding whoever's left and willing to sign for the minimum, OKC is so far capped out they had no choice. There wasn't a possible second option.
3. And completely off the topic, but it still amazes me how many writers somehow try to relate this to James Harden like its in some way the same, when there's been an infusion of money to the ownership group, a clear shift in how the team is being run (the plan always seemed to be to peak at this time), and the fact that a third perimeter player who's ball dominant makes less sense fit wise.
4. To Donovan, his coaching style in college, which may or may not translate, did often have a big who wasn't a very good defender/rim protector.
5. And to Kanter, though as a fan I don't count on it, it isn't entirely out of the question he improves to a passable level. Heck, Harden just did that this past season, and he's been in the league longer. Kanter didn't play in college at all and missed some time injured early in his career.
Having said all this, I'm still worried as a fan and hated the price tag, but the other option was much worse. And I'm more amazed because I know that had Presti not matched the contract, the criticism would be just as harsh, if not worse, by most pundits.
1. Kanter still likely splits minutes with Adams, I don't think the price tag guarantees anything.
2. Presti's choice wasn't Kanter or the next best available, it was Kanter or finding whoever's left and willing to sign for the minimum, OKC is so far capped out they had no choice. There wasn't a possible second option.
3. And completely off the topic, but it still amazes me how many writers somehow try to relate this to James Harden like its in some way the same, when there's been an infusion of money to the ownership group, a clear shift in how the team is being run (the plan always seemed to be to peak at this time), and the fact that a third perimeter player who's ball dominant makes less sense fit wise.
4. To Donovan, his coaching style in college, which may or may not translate, did often have a big who wasn't a very good defender/rim protector.
5. And to Kanter, though as a fan I don't count on it, it isn't entirely out of the question he improves to a passable level. Heck, Harden just did that this past season, and he's been in the league longer. Kanter didn't play in college at all and missed some time injured early in his career.
Having said all this, I'm still worried as a fan and hated the price tag, but the other option was much worse. And I'm more amazed because I know that had Presti not matched the contract, the criticism would be just as harsh, if not worse, by most pundits.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
Thanks for the reply.
Here is a replacement link http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=Y
As for Presti having little choice but match, he put himself in that box with the trade.
Here is a replacement link http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=Y
As for Presti having little choice but match, he put himself in that box with the trade.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
Sort of. I mean the trade was the best available option at the time, and certainly great value for a guy who didn't want to be there, an expiring terrible contract, and a future pick. The pick alone likely would have to have been included just to rid the team of Perk's contract. Also gives slight hope after looking at the link as Kanter is still easily youngest on the list, and the list is pretty much a group of guys who I'd say were/are solid NBA big men. It ultimately still is likely a big upgrade on who they had before Kanter in Perkins.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
The pick alone probably would have been necessary to move Perk before or near beginning of season but in February his remaining salary was less of a burden.
Kanter may be better than Perk or the worst of Perk in future, but by RPM estimate last season he wasn't. And Presti walked himself into the Perk box, especially with the early extension.
Yes there are some still reasons for hope. I will occasionally talk both sides of an issue but sometimes do just one and leave the other for someone more capable and / or disposed to present that other side.
Kanter may be better than Perk or the worst of Perk in future, but by RPM estimate last season he wasn't. And Presti walked himself into the Perk box, especially with the early extension.
Yes there are some still reasons for hope. I will occasionally talk both sides of an issue but sometimes do just one and leave the other for someone more capable and / or disposed to present that other side.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
Oh I certainly see both sides, but in the end it was a situation without any real choice. Presti either matched and overpayed (which I do think it is) or he didn't and was short a man on the roster. I have to think he had some input here w/ the players, and ultimately keeping KD happy is a good thing. I'd be highly surprised/disappointed if they were healthy and not a top 3 seed.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
A 3 seed (or 4th) is likely but anything less than conference finals appearance will be very disappointing. They and almost everybody expects more. They are going into Presti / Durant era year 9. Realistically I can't give them more than a 20% chance at the next title and it may be closer to 10%. With Kanter their chances are probably no better than previously without and it may actually be less all things considered. All of Presti's trade acquisitions last season (Augustin, Waiters, Novak and Kanter) had bad RPM last season and it may show again and more clearly this season. Back at the beginning of Durant era the debate was whether they'd have 2, 3 or 5 fast titles. Now the debate is more between 1 or none. Other than drafting Mitch McGary, almost all or all of Presti's other moves in last 18 months have been blah to bad, imo. If Kanter works out great and they go beyond conference finals, I'll come back and say I misjudged. If they get knocked out in second round, the debate will have a range of reactions. Earlier than that, it was a failure of a season.
Re: Presti, Kanter, similar players, context and team result
I'm still unsure the fact that guys have poor RPM splits really will contribute that much. In the end its all on coaching and health. The last time they were in the finals both Thabo and Perk had negative RAPMs, and even a year ago key bench guys from GSW weren't amazing in RAPM. I think Kanter was the best available option given Jackson clearly wasn't staying and was a bad presence in the locker room, the Lopez option was at best equally risky, and wouldn't have come w/ Augustin or Singler leaving the team with no backup PG and starting PJ III. Jackson put them in a rough spot there. Though I agree less than WCF would be a bummer for me as well, I don't even know what odds to put on a title.
As well, just to note but it seems from reports there is still a good shot Kanter comes off the bench, which would mean they're still splitting minutes.
This may sound a little crazy and homerish being a fan of the team but I feel like there's a strange pessimism amongst fans about them, when the only reason they've been eliminated in at least 2 of the last 3 years was injury. The season of 12-13 they looked similar to GSW this year, then Westbrook went down and everything changed. I don't see a way Kanter could be that great a negative to essentially make a rotation of Kanter/Adams worse than a rotation of Perkins/Thabeet. But again, I could be wrong there very well.
Edit: Also, FWIW, looking again at GSW, they had basically everyone improve in RPM from last year. RPM will increase if players are put into a role they're better suited for. That's on coaching, which Donovan could help with, similar to Kerr. As fans we can hope though I don't want to jinx it.
As well, just to note but it seems from reports there is still a good shot Kanter comes off the bench, which would mean they're still splitting minutes.
This may sound a little crazy and homerish being a fan of the team but I feel like there's a strange pessimism amongst fans about them, when the only reason they've been eliminated in at least 2 of the last 3 years was injury. The season of 12-13 they looked similar to GSW this year, then Westbrook went down and everything changed. I don't see a way Kanter could be that great a negative to essentially make a rotation of Kanter/Adams worse than a rotation of Perkins/Thabeet. But again, I could be wrong there very well.
Edit: Also, FWIW, looking again at GSW, they had basically everyone improve in RPM from last year. RPM will increase if players are put into a role they're better suited for. That's on coaching, which Donovan could help with, similar to Kerr. As fans we can hope though I don't want to jinx it.