Looking into possibility of Warriors repeat

[Crow]

I am not ready to do a 2016 title contention analysis. This thread can be used for that, if / when any are inclined. But I wanted a place to put the following data, fwiw.

Golden State's net off. - def. efficiency ratings in playoffs was 4th best of last ten titlists, but the change in net rtg from regular season to playoffs was 3rd worst (2008 Celtics and 2007 Spurs had worse) at about -4. The last two repeat champs had about a -1 and 0 rs to playoff falloff in first title season. That net change improved in one case and slip in other but was still small. The 2000 Lakers had a -6 slippage though. In 2001 the slippage was a massive 10 pts. In 2002 it was a more modest -3.5. Regular season to playoff net rtg change may not mean that much. Obviously it can be affected by strength of opponents faced and injuries in either period. But I thought I'd check to see if the data has a strong lean or not. It is a potentially worrisome sign but it is apparently survivable for first titles or additional ones, especially if the regular season performance base is real strong. GSW comes out looking conflicted and middling for recent champs by these data points.

[DSMok1]

I am not ready to do a 2016 title contention analysis. This thread can be used for that, if / when any are inclined. But I wanted a place to put the following data, fwiw.

Golden State's net off. - def. efficiency ratings in playoffs was 4th best of last ten titlists, but the change in net rtg from regular season to playoffs was 3rd worst (2008 Celtics and 2007 Spurs had worse) at about -4. The last two repeat champs had about a -1 and 0 rs to playoff falloff in first title season. That net change improved in one case and slip in other but was still small. The 2000 Lakers had a -6 slippage though. In 2001 the slippage was a massive 10 pts. In 2002 it was a more modest -3.5. Regular season to playoff net rtg change may not mean that much. Obvioudly it can be affected by strength of opponents faced and injuries in either period. But I thought I'd check to see if the data has a strong lean or not. It is a potentially worrisome sign but it is apparently survivable for first titles or additional ones, especially if the regular season performance base is real strong. GSW comes out looking conflicted and middling for recent champs by these data points.

Golden State had an adjusted efficiency differential of +13.7, one of the better playoff runs recently. See my post at http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2015/n ... m-ratings/

That's several points above their regular season number, which was one of the best of all time.

Got to account for strength of schedule!

[Crow]

Ok, thanks.

Your article had not been shared here previously (to my recollection) and I hadn't seen it.

There are a number of good deeper analytic articles out there that don't get posted here or discussed. Many get found outside here, but some don't. Always author choice, but the decline in article posting is one part of the current situation. I used to post more of them. I am less inclined to do that, for others. It is not that hard but it is not that hard for others either.

[Mike G]

I don't read anything other than what appears here.

[DSMok1]

I don't read anything other than what appears here.

I basically read here and Twitter, that's it--if something seems good I'll follow the links off of Twitter (often to Nylon Calculus, ESPN Insider, or FiveThirtyEight).

[Mike G]

I understated it, but my point was that nobody should assume "everyone has seen" something that's out there. I follow a lot of stuff, and especially in the off season, I don't follow NBA except sporadically.

[Crow]

Stumbled on this. Update: Warriors net efficiency 2016 playoffs - regular season was -6.3. Saw it coming, sort of.

In 2017 the differential was +1.9.