2015-16 Team win projections

[Crow]

Thanks much for offering to track. Scaling makes sense to me. The Vegas line I saw added to 1240 instead of 1230. Maybe intentional? But weird.

[sndesai1]

i think the initial lines added up to ~1240, but by now, they're probably somewhere around 1270. they're clearly taking advantage of people's biases. it won't result in a smaller avg error, but that's not really a book's goal

however, fivethirtyeight's projections adding up to way over 1230 was a little surprising to me. i guess they basically did all of their projections independently, and they ignored schedule too...i'm not sure why they decided to do that with their new CARMELO projections - i don't think they did that last year

[Mike G]

Here's what we have so far:

Code: Select all

tm     avg   MG  bbs  fpli  DrP  DF  Crow  AJ   KF   km  DSM  taco Cal  itca snd
Atl   48.6   50   43   47   54   48   46   50   45   43   50   51   51   50   52
Bos   46.1   38   52   48   41   46   46   49   49   50   47   43   46   45   45
Brk   24.6   29   21   29   20   26   24   25   24   20   24   27   26   28   21
Cha   35.2   35   38   35   35   39   39   38   37   38   37   27   36   25   34
Chi   46.8   42   46   49   47   45   46   48   44   44   47   52   45   52   48

Cle   56.8   51   57   58   57   58   58   58   58   57   56   53   56   57   61
Dal   38.4   38   39   39   39   40   37   40   40   37   41   32   38   37   41
Den   28.0   28   27   29   30   27   29   28   26   25   28   36   27   26   26
Det   38.1   42   39   39   39   37   35   38   38   39   37   34   40   39   37
GSW   60.9   53   64   61   66   62   61   66   59   61   61   59   62   59   59

Hou   53.5   54   55   54   48   54   56   52   54   53   54   54   51   55   55
Ind   40.3   43   38   46   38   40   42   42   40   43   37   30   41   44   40
LAC   53.9   57   53   54   52   54   54   53   54   53   53   54   56   53   54
LAL   24.4   34   21   25   20   24   23   23   24   26   22   28   25   25   22
Mem   48.6   47   48   51   50   51   49   50   45   49   47   51   50   47   45

tm     avg   MG  bbs  fpli  DrP  DF  Crow  AJ   KF   km  DSM  taco Cal  itca snd
Mia   41.7   52   35   44   34   40   41   41   39   40   40   47   48   44   39
Mil   38.9   41   38   39   30   36   41   36   40   39   37   45   38   43   41
Min   27.5   28   28   22   25   28   28   29   28   28   30   27   24   29   31
NOP   44.7   42   43   49   48   47   46   45   45   41   47   41   42   44   46
NYK   27.1   26   28   28   14   27   28   25   28   31   24   36   29   32   23

Okl   55.0   57   54   53   58   54   53   54   55   57   56   56   56   54   53
Orl   30.9   33   33   28   26   31   28   27   35   35   34   28   29   31   34
Phl   23.4   18   23   18   33   22   22   24   25   20   24   28   20   25   25
Phx   37.6   36   38   38   42   38   39   34   38   37   36   37   37   37   40
Por   35.5   36   42   32   43   35   34   33   38   39   37   27   34   30   37

Sac   36.0   43   35   31   36   37   38   35   36   40   31   34   38   34   36
SAS   56.1   57   56   57   56   58   54   59   55   56   56   54   57   56   54
Tor   46.5   45   48   45   54   45   46   48   48   45   49   46   45   42   45
Uta   41.4   39   42   36   52   41   40   37   41   39   41   46   40   44   42
Was   44.0   36   47   46   43   40   47   43   42   45   47   47   43   46   44

tot  1230  1230 1231 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1233 1230

Note that the team abbreviations are alphabetical in the same order as their fully-spelled-out city/names.
If you abbreviate Brk as Bkn, it switches order with Bos. If you call Cha Cho, it jumps ahead of Chi.
Therefore, I advocate abbreviating in a way that does not change the alphabetical order.

Least variation from the avg belongs to Dan Frank (DF/ampersand) who is within 2 of the group avg for every team except Was -- calling for just 40 wins vs the avg of 43. And that "extreme" is only half as radical as my own prediction (37).

I'm a radical in general. Suspecting Mia will attain 52 wins (avg = 41) and the LAL 34 (vs 24).
Even more out-there is Dr Pos, with 3 double-digit outliers: NYK 14 (26 avg), Utah 52 (41), Phl 33 (23)
No other prediction differs by more than 6 from any average.

UPDATED -- A couple of people have wins total more than 1230. Feel free to amend this.
If you don't like the abbreviation for you, I can change it.

[DSMok1]

Here is my entry, which is NOT algorithm based. This is based on several of the best statistics-based methods with minor tweaks by hand. This was also my entry for ESPN's Fall Forecast:

Code: Select all

tm	DSM
Atl	50
Bos	47
Brk	24
Cha	37
Chi	47
	
Cle	56
Dal	41
Den	28
Det	37
GSW	61
	
Hou	54
Ind	37
LAC	53
LAL	22
Mem	47
	
Mia	40
Mil	37
Min	30
NOP	47
NYK	24
	
Okl	56
Orl	34
Phl	24
Phx	36
Por	37
	
Sac	31
SAS	56
Tor	49
Uta	41
Was	47

[tacoman206]

Code: Select all

Team	WinProjFinal
------
ATL	51
BOS  43
BKN  27
CHA	27
CHI	52
CLE	53
DAL	32
DEN	36
DET	34
GSW	59
HOU	54
IND	30
LAC	54
LAL	28
MEM	51
MIA	47
MIL	45
MIN	27
NOP	41
NYK	36
OKC	56
ORL	28
PHI	28
PHX	37
POR	27
SAC	34
SAS	54
TOR	46
UTA	46
WAS	47

I did a pretty simple algorithm for these, not really trusting my player projections too much.

[Dr Positivity]

Even more out-there is Dr Pos, with 3 double-digit outliers: NYK 14 (26 avg), Utah 52 (41), Phl 33 (23)
No other prediction differs by more than 6 from any average.

Yeah the NYK one I would be surprised if it actually happens, since it seems like how could go backwards with the legitimate NBA player acquisitions they made? But I will stick with the numbers and see how it goes. Basically what happened with NYK is their 5 best players per minute last year rated as Prigioni, Acy, Shumpert, Melo and Shved in that order. So despite adding some solid acquisitions like Lopez, Afflalo and O'Quinn, the 3,000+ minutes lost of competent play from Prigs/Shumpert/Acy/Shved is a surprising hurt. I projected Melo to slightly decline because of age, so if his dip last year was health related and he bounces back to his 13-14 form instead, that could be one way NYK proves me wrong

[caliban]

First time trying this out. Peltons minutes with minor tweaks and a bunch of numbers

Code: Select all

tm   Cal
Atl   51
Bos   46
Brk   26
Cha   36
Chi   45
   
Cle   56
Dal   38
Den   27
Det   40
GSW   62
   
Hou   51
Ind   41
LAC   56
LAL   25
Mem   50
   
Mia   48
Mil   38
Min   24
NOP   42
NYK   29
   
Okl   56
Orl   29
Phl   20
Phx   37
Por   34
   
Sac   38
SAS   57
Tor   45
Uta   40
Was   43

[italia13calcio]

Team WinProjFinal
------
ATL 50
BOS 45
BKN 28
CHA 25
CHI 52
CLE 57
DAL 37
DEN 26
DET 39
GSW 59
HOU 55
IND 44
LAC 53
LAL 25
MEM 47
MIA 44
MIL 43
MIN 29
NOP 44
NYK 32
OKC 54
ORL 31
PHI 25
PHX 37
POR 30
SAC 34
SAS 56
TOR 42
UTA 44
WAS 46

[sndesai1]

ATL 52
BOS 45
BRK 21
CHA 34
CHI 48
CLE 61
DAL 41
DEN 26
DET 37
GSW 59
HOU 55
IND 40
LAC 54
LAL 22
MEM 45
MIA 39
MIL 41
MIN 31
NOP 46
NYK 23
OKC 53
ORL 34
PHI 25
PHO 40
POR 37
SAC 36
SAS 54
TOR 45
UTA 42
WAS 44

[Statman]

Sorry, bunch of stuff came up - & since I don't get paid for this, I'm still working on the projections. All the theory stuff is done - too much minutiae to finish tonight. I should have fully fleshed out stuff tomorrow - I'll post here & at my site a day late & a dollar short.

The cool thing about using Pelton's minutes projections is that I'll be able to rank every player by projected 2016 WAR & WAR/48. The not cool thing is how some players are named slightly different between my league files & Pelton's list (Pelton, NBA, D League, Preseason, NCAA). Cross checking is a pain & has taken more time than expected.

[tacoman206]

Sorry, bunch of stuff came up - & since I don't get paid for this, I'm still working on the projections. All the theory stuff is done - too much minutiae to finish tonight. I should have fully fleshed out stuff tomorrow - I'll post here & at my site a day late & a dollar short.

The cool thing about using Pelton's minutes projections is that I'll be able to rank every player by projected 2016 WAR & WAR/48. The not cool thing is how some players are named slightly different between my league files & Pelton's list (Pelton, NBA, D League, Preseason, NCAA). Cross checking is a pain & has taken more time than expected.

If you could post your individual WS predictions, it would be cool to compare our systems does better after the season (and anyone else who has individual projections)

[nrestifo]

Here's mine. Explained briefly here : http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/27/201 ... ojections/

Team Wins
GSW 60
LAC 59
SAS 59
HOU 57
CLE 56
MEM 52
TOR 52
OKC 50
CHI 49
ATL 48
BOS 46
NOP 46
UTA 43
WAS 42
SAC 41
DAL 39
PHO 39
MIA 38
POR 38
IND 36
MIL 34
DEN 31
NYK 31
DET 30
ORL 29
BRK 28
CHO 26
LAL 26
PHI 25
MIN 20

[rsmth]

Code: Select all

RK	Team	ORTG	DRTG	Wins	Win%
W2	GSW	110.9	100.0	65	79.3%
W2	SAS	109.6	100.5	61	74.4%
E1	CLE	113.4	105.6	60	73.2%
W3	LAC	112.1	104.9	57	69.5%
W4	OKC	112.3	105.6	56	68.3%
W5	HOU	110.7	104.6	54	65.9%
W6	MEM	107.4	102.7	52	63.4%
E2	CHI	106.8	103.5	50	61.0%
E3	ATL	106.2	102.9	50	61.0%
E4	BOS	107.4	104.4	50	61.0%
E5	TOR	108.4	106.2	48	58.5%
W7	NOP	108.7	106.8	45	54.9%
E6	WAS	104.5	103.4	45	54.9%
E7	IND	105.1	105.0	42	51.2%
E8	MIA	107.2	108.1	40	48.8%
W8	DAL	107.8	107.9	39	47.6%
E9	MIL	103.8	104.7	39	47.6%
W9	UTA	10.9	106.3	39	47.6%
W10	PHO	102.8	103.7	38	46.3%
W11	SAC	104.9	106.0	37	45.1%
E10	DET	107.0	109.5	35	42.7%
W12	POR	104.1	106.5	34	41.5%
E11	CHA	103.4	107.3	32	39.0%
E12	ORL	103.3	107.8	31	37.8%
W13	DEN	101.4	107.5	26	31.7%
E13	NYK	103.2	110.7	24	29.3%
W14	MIN	102.1	109.7	23	28.0%
E14	BRK	101.9	110.8	21	25.6%
W15	LAL	103.8	112.5	20	24.4%
E15	PHI	99.2	110.0	17	20.7%

[Mike G]

One hour to tipoff

Code: Select all

tm    avg    MG  bbs  fpli  DrP  DF  Crow  AJ   KF   km  DSM  taco  Cal itca  snd  nr  rsm
Atl   48.6   50   43   47   54   48   46   50   45   43   50   51   51   50   52   48   50
Bos   46.3   38   52   48   41   46   46   49   49   50   47   43   46   45   45   46   50
Brk   24.6   29   21   29   20   26   24   25   24   20   24   27   26   28   21   28   21
Cha   34.4   35   38   35   35   39   39   38   37   38   37   27   36   25   34   26   32
Chi   47.1   42   46   49   47   45   46   48   44   44   47   52   45   52   48   49   50

Cle   56.9   51   57   58   57   58   58   58   58   57   56   53   56   57   61   56   60
Dal   38.5   38   39   39   39   40   37   40   40   37   41   32   38   37   41   39   39
Den   28.1   28   27   29   30   27   29   28   26   25   28   36   27   26   26   31   26
Det   37.4   42   39   39   39   37   35   38   38   39   37   34   40   39   37   30   35
GSW   61.1   53   64   61   66   62   61   66   59   61   61   59   62   59   59   60   65

Hou   53.8   54   55   54   48   54   56   52   54   53   54   54   51   55   55   57   54
Ind   40.1   43   38   46   38   40   42   42   40   43   37   30   41   44   40   36   42
LAC   54.4   57   53   54   52   54   54   53   54   53   53   54   56   53   54   59   57
LAL   24.3   34   21   25   20   24   23   23   24   26   22   28   25   25   22   26   20
Mem   49.0   47   48   51   50   51   49   50   45   49   47   51   50   47   45   52   52

Mia   41.4   52   35   44   34   40   41   41   39   40   40   47   48   44   39   38   40
Mil   38.6   41   38   39   30   36   41   36   40   39   37   45   38   43   41   34   39
Min   26.8   28   28   22   25   28   28   29   28   28   30   27   24   29   31   20   23
NOP   44.8   42   43   49   48   47   46   45   45   41   47   41   42   44   46   46   45
NYK   27.1   26   28   28   14   27   28   25   28   31   24   36   29   32   23   31   24

Okl   54.8   57   54   53   58   54   53   54   55   57   56   56   56   54   53   50   56
Orl   30.8   33   33   28   26   31   28   27   35   35   34   28   29   31   34   29   31
Phl   23.1   18   23   18   33   22   22   24   25   20   24   28   20   25   25   25   17
Phx   37.8   36   38   38   42   38   39   34   38   37   36   37   37   37   40   39   38
Por   35.6   36   42   32   43   35   34   33   38   39   37   27   34   30   37   38   34

Sac   36.4   43   35   31   36   37   38   35   36   40   31   34   38   34   36   41   37
SAS   56.6   57   56   57   56   58   54   59   55   56   56   54   57   56   54   59   61
Tor   46.9   45   48   45   54   45   46   48   48   45   49   46   45   42   45   52   48
Uta   41.4   39   42   36   52   41   40   37   41   39   41   46   40   44   42   43   39
Was   43.9   36   47   46   43   40   47   43   42   45   47   47   43   46   44   42   45

tot  1230  1230 1231 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1230 1233 1230 1230 1230

[sndesai1]

n/m