Improved players 2015-16

[Mike G]

This is at .117 of the season and doesn't include last night's games.
Ranked by eWins ahead of last year's rates in this year's minutes.
This season on the left, last year on the right.

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eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.55   Paul George     Ind  .555   27.4   8.7   4.6   2.04     .486   21.1   8.4   2.3  1.30
.47   Dwight Powell   Dal  .568   18.2  11.5   2.6   1.73     .539   13.2   6.9   1.3   .67
.45   Eric Bledsoe    Phx  .584   27.1   4.6   7.1   2.07     .544   18.6   5.4   6.1  1.36
.40   Evan Fournier   Orl  .556   19.7   3.9   2.7   1.06     .538   15.7   3.4   2.2   .59
.35  Matt Dellavedova Cle  .514   10.8   3.9   7.7    .90     .489    8.4   3.3   5.3   .25

.35   Andre Drummond  Det  .500   20.1  19.8    .9   2.30     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80
.35   Stephen Curry   GSW  .676   40.7   5.2   6.3   3.14     .629   30.4   4.6   9.0  2.70
.34   Kent Bazemore   Atl  .571   15.9   5.4   3.2    .98     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47
.33   Will Barton     Den  .584   19.9   6.3   2.0   1.39     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
.33   Doug McDermott  Chi  .678   21.3   3.1   1.2    .94     .476   11.6   4.4    .7   .10

eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.32   Aaron Gordon    Orl  .519   15.8   8.1   1.9   1.19     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
.32   Chris Bosh      Mia  .561   25.8  11.0   1.9   2.23     .539   23.6   7.7   2.2  1.70
.32   Andre Iguodala  GSW  .564   12.3   5.4   5.4   1.09     .546   11.1   4.3   4.2   .61
.31   Gary Harris     Den  .532   11.6   4.0   3.0    .46     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
.31   C.J. McCollum   Por  .560   23.2   4.2   2.6   1.12     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70

.30   Kyle Lowry      Tor  .556   23.2   5.6   7.7   2.03     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2  1.60
.30   Nicolas Batum   Cha  .578   18.9   7.2   3.6   1.26 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78
.29   Jerami Grant    Phl  .485   13.2   6.4   1.2    .78     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
.28   Ricky Rubio     Min  .510   15.8   5.3  10.7   1.84     .444   10.7   6.7   9.1  1.10
.28   Draymond Green  GSW  .542   14.6   8.3   8.6   1.73     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37

eW+    per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.28   Marvin Williams Cha  .584   13.3   8.8   1.8   1.03     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
.27   Festus Ezeli    GSW  .568   18.1  10.4   2.5   1.64     .565   14.7  10.1    .7  1.03
.26 Jonas Valanciunas Tor  .654   23.1  14.0    .6   1.98     .609   18.4  12.3    .7  1.53
.26   Harrison Barnes GSW  .556   17.9   5.7   3.1   1.19     .566   13.8   6.8   1.9   .82
.24   Johnny O'Bryant Mil  .505   10.3   7.1   1.6    .66     .375    8.5   6.1   1.5   .02

.24   Zach LaVine     Min  .521   19.0   5.0   6.4   1.14     .508   14.1   4.1   4.7   .59
.24   Mo Williams     Cle  .591   21.3   3.9   6.6   1.50 Cha .506   17.8   3.2   7.0  1.13
.23   Zaza Pachulia   Dal  .549   15.6  12.5   2.4   1.55 Mil .498   13.3  10.6   3.5  1.13
.23   Ian Mahinmi     Ind  .522   13.3   8.5   1.5   1.08     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56
.23   Alec Burks      Uta  .545   23.4   4.5   3.0   1.32     .513   16.5   4.9   3.4   .88

The Warriors are well represented. Earlier, it was all Curry.

From the bottom of the deck:

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eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.76   Ty Lawson      Hou  .414    8.2   3.3   5.2   .29 Den .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
-.74   James Harden   Hou  .521   25.6   5.6   4.8  1.58     .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-.72   George Hill    Ind  .571   15.6   3.6   3.8   .88     .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82
-.48   Klay Thompson  GSW  .547   20.0   4.9   3.2  1.07     .584   27.1   3.5   3.5   1.83
-.44   Chris Paul     LAC  .519   17.8   3.7   8.6  1.36     .588   22.1   4.8  11.1   2.30

-.43   Derrick Rose   Chi  .402   14.4   3.1   7.1   .75     .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
-.42   Anthony Davis  NOP  .544   23.5   9.0   2.0  1.76     .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58
-.40  Khris Middleton Mil  .493   14.3   3.5   2.2   .58     .557   17.9   5.4   2.6   1.11
-.37   Marc Gasol     Mem  .528   19.6   7.0   3.5  1.33     .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89
-.36   Corey Brewer   Hou  .354    7.7   3.7   2.3   .10     .499   15.6   5.1   3.0    .88

eW+     per36 rates   tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.35   Jeff Green     Mem  .440   10.8   4.6   2.0   .26     .526   18.5   4.9   2.0   1.00
-.34   Zach Randolph  Mem  .516   18.4  10.2   2.0  1.21     .529   20.1  12.1   2.5   1.75
-.34   Danny Green    SAS  .401    9.2   5.8   2.9   .48     .590   17.0   5.5   2.5   1.13
-.32   Mike Conley    Mem  .453   14.6   3.5   6.8   .96     .550   20.6   3.5   6.2   1.46
-.31   Ersan Ilyasova Det  .569   15.3   5.0   1.6   .68 Mil .548   19.8   7.7   1.4   1.35

-.31   Paul Pierce    LAC  .475    8.6   6.1   2.6   .41 Was .570   18.4   5.7   2.5   1.09
-.30   Gordon Hayward Uta  .492   20.6   4.9   3.4  1.18     .555   23.1   5.5   4.4   1.66
-.29   Lou Williams   LAL  .478   16.6   2.9   3.5   .79 Tor .552   23.2   2.7   2.9   1.36
-.28   Kobe Bryant    LAL  .456   19.8   4.1   3.2   .91     .469   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.56
-.27  DeMarre Carroll Tor  .425   13.0   5.2   1.9   .52 Atl .594   16.6   6.2   2.0   1.06

Rockets and Grizzlies and the West in general.
The worst flops may not appear here, if they aren't getting minutes. These are players expected to be better and still getting playing time.

[Statman]

I was worried about my Paul George projection being too good (note low confidence), I think part of it was memories of Danny Granger falling off the face of the earth after injury.

Here's how I had the projections (Preseason: http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=885 , NOT current WAR rankings), which is also why my Indiana projection was north of most:

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+------+-------------------+------------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| Rank |      Player       | Confidence |  Age  | Team |  WAR  | WAR/48 |
+------+-------------------+------------+-------+------+-------+--------+
|    1 | Kevin Durant      | 56.85%     | 26.84 | okc  | 19.33 | 28.95  |
|    2 | Anthony Davis     | 85.12%     | 22.39 | nop  | 18.57 | 27.44  |
|    3 | James Harden      | 99.45%     | 25.93 | hou  | 18.27 | 25.61  |
|    4 | Russell Westbrook | 69.85%     | 26.72 | okc  | 17.45 | 27.29  |
|    5 | Stephen Curry     | 92.89%     | 27.38 | gsw  | 17.30 | 26.45  |
|    6 | LeBron James      | 87.05%     | 30.58 | cle  | 16.45 | 24.03  |
|    7 | Chris Paul        | 90.60%     | 30.24 | lac  | 15.74 | 23.29  |
|    8 | DeMarcus Cousins  | 73.04%     | 24.97 | sac  | 14.55 | 22.16  |
|    9 | Paul George       | 38.08%     | 25.25 | ind  | 13.23 | 21.27  |
|   10 | Blake Griffin     | 88.60%     | 26.38 | lac  | 12.89 | 18.82  |
|   11 | Hassan Whiteside  | 29.59%     | 26.13 | mia  | 12.66 | 22.81  |
|   12 | Damian Lillard    | 100.00%    | 25.05 | por  | 11.91 | 16.69  |
|   13 | Kawhi Leonard     | 68.39%     | 24.09 | sas  | 11.05 | 18.88  |
+------+-------------------+------------+-------+------+-------+--------+

[Mike G]

Well, I am a Pacers fan, so I am doubly (or triply) happy to see Paul George progressing as if nothing had happened. He's just 25, so it's as it should be; just one lost season.

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year    Min    PER   TS%  3PAr   FTr   Ast%   Usg%   WS/48  BPM
2013   2972   16.8  .531  .399  .233   19.6   23.5   .145   4.7
2014   2898   20.1  .555  .367  .341   17.9   28.3   .178   4.7
2015     91   13.0  .492  .449  .224   11.8   32.8  -.008  -3.3
2016    401   23.1  .567  .322  .396   24.1   30.7   .190   6.3

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... gpa01.html
Note the inverse correlation between 3PAr and FTr/TS%. And he's hitting a career high .415 from the arc!

Players with Usg>30, Ast%>20, TO% <15, and TS%>.550 this year: George, Curry, Griffin, LeBron, and Lillard.
In whole seasons, 1978-2015, it's been done 54 times : about 1.4 such players per year.
http://bkref.com/tiny/lSxEZ
Just 7 have done it more than once.

[bondom343]

Glad PG's doing so well too, the Pacers are the team I root for in the East, grew up a big Reggie Miller fan.

[Mike G]

Using Paul George's 2013-14 as his 'previous season', he drops from the top 25 improvers.

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eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.61   Gary Harris     Den  .587   14.3   3.8   2.6    .64     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
.54   Dwight Powell   Dal  .575   17.6  10.2   2.1   1.55     .539   13.2   6.9   1.3   .67
.47   Will Barton     Den  .596   19.2   6.4   2.4   1.39     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
.47   Evan Fournier   Orl  .556   20.0   3.8   2.7   1.05     .538   15.7   3.4   2.2   .59
.44   Eric Bledsoe    Phx  .577   25.9   4.5   6.7   1.84     .544   18.6   5.4   6.1  1.36

.44   C.J. McCollum   Por  .542   22.0   3.7   2.9   1.10     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
.43   Andre Iguodala  GSW  .619   12.3   5.1   5.6   1.09     .546   11.1   4.3   4.2   .61
.42   Zach LaVine     Min  .550   21.3   4.8   5.5   1.24     .508   14.1   4.1   4.7   .59
.42   Andre Drummond  Det  .523   20.1  18.7    .9   2.22     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80
.41   Kent Bazemore   Atl  .600   16.5   5.2   3.2   1.04     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47

eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.41  Matt Dellavedova Cle  .511   10.3   3.3   7.8    .82     .489    8.4   3.3   5.3   .25
.41   Jerami Grant    Phl  .491   13.3   6.2   1.2    .79     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
.41   Nicolas Batum   Cha  .598   19.4   6.1   3.7   1.22 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78
.40   Thaddeus Young  Brk  .536   18.5  10.4   1.5   1.43     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4   .98
.40   Otto Porter     Was  .597   15.8   5.4   2.9   1.06     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5   .47

.39   Marvin Williams Cha  .567   12.3   8.4   1.7   1.02     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
.39   Aaron Gordon    Orl  .517   15.2   8.1   2.1   1.21     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
.39   Harrison Barnes GSW  .597   18.2   5.9   2.8   1.22     .566   13.8   6.8   1.9   .82
.38   Festus Ezeli    GSW  .553   15.7  10.6   2.4   1.65     .565   14.7  10.1    .7  1.03
.37   Ian Mahinmi     Ind  .479   11.1   9.4   2.0   1.18     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56

eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.36   Draymond Green  GSW  .584   14.6   8.5   8.1   1.72     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37
.35   Doug McDermott  Chi  .636   19.0   3.2   1.1    .78     .476   11.6   4.4    .7   .10
.34   Clint Capela    Hou  .677   15.4  12.1    .9   1.67     .395   10.7  13.2    .8  1.02
.33  Tristan Thompson Cle  .581   11.6  13.7   1.3   1.37     .566   12.3  11.1    .7   .89
.33   Avery Bradley   Bos  .559   20.7   3.8   2.8   1.19     .504   16.2   3.6   2.0   .68

.31   Andrew Wiggins  Min  .500   23.3   3.6   2.0   1.10     .506   16.3   4.7   1.9   .74
.29   Paul George     Ind  .561   29.0   8.5   5.1   2.17     .545   26.5   7.2   3.6  1.86
.27 Langston Galloway NYK  .615   15.6   5.3   2.8   1.07     .485   13.2   4.9   3.4   .71
.27   Zaza Pachulia   Dal  .560   14.6  11.7   3.1   1.46 Mil .498   13.3  10.6   3.5  1.13
.27   Kyle Lowry      Tor  .563   23.1   5.1   6.9   1.85     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2  1.60

Wiggins is the only one seen to have improved in spite of a (slight) drop in shooting%.

And the losers are:

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eW+     per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.01  Ty Lawson       Hou  .403    8.0   3.1   5.1   .20 Den .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
-.96   James Harden    Hou  .536   25.9   5.4   5.1  1.64     .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-.70   George Hill     Ind  .571   15.8   3.6   3.8   .90     .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82
-.63   Klay Thompson   GSW  .558   20.3   4.2   3.5  1.15     .584   27.1   3.5   3.5   1.83
-.58   Khris Middleton Mil  .493   13.9   3.2   2.1   .50     .557   17.9   5.4   2.6   1.11

-.55   Chris Paul      LAC  .542   19.4   3.7   8.4  1.47     .588   22.1   4.8  11.1   2.30
-.54   Marc Gasol      Mem  .537   18.1   7.3   4.5  1.33     .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89
-.48   Danny Green     SAS  .433   10.2   5.5   3.0   .51     .590   17.0   5.5   2.5   1.13
-.48   Gordon Hayward  Uta  .500   19.4   5.7   3.1  1.10     .555   23.1   5.5   4.4   1.66
-.48   Paul Pierce     LAC  .471    8.1   5.4   2.1   .24 Was .570   18.4   5.7   2.5   1.09

eW+     per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.46   Corey Brewer    Hou  .380    9.3   3.6   1.9   .17     .499   15.6   5.1   3.0    .88
-.45   Anthony Davis   NOP  .537   24.1  10.6   1.9  2.00     .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58
-.42   Kobe Bryant     LAL  .431   18.1   4.3   4.1   .90     .469   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.56
-.42   Lou Williams    LAL  .489   16.6   3.0   3.2   .74 Tor .552   23.2   2.7   2.9   1.36
-.41   Tiago Splitter  Atl  .523   11.4   6.7   1.4   .53 SAS .590   17.1   8.9   2.8   1.35

-.40   Wesley Matthews Dal  .491   14.9   2.8   2.0   .50 Por .580   19.1   3.9   2.5   1.07
-.40   Derrick Rose    Chi  .424   15.7   2.9   6.8   .87     .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
-.39   Jamal Crawford  LAC  .504   18.3   2.2   2.6   .68     .523   21.9   2.6   3.4   1.25
-.39  Shabazz Muhammad Min  .557   15.6   4.9    .7   .49     .545   20.8   6.5   1.6   1.31
-.39   Zach Randolph   Mem  .510   18.2  10.5   2.1  1.23     .529   20.1  12.1   2.5   1.75

15 of 20 in the West.

[Mike G]

Players in the East, who also played last year, have totaled just about 1 eWin better than they got in equal minutes last year.
Those now in the West total 6.5 fewer eWins this year.
They sum to less than zero because of the strong rookie class that is making it harder to get points, rebounds, etc.
Unless there's another possibility.

[Mike G]

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eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.61   Gary Harris     Den  .587   14.3   3.8   2.6    .64     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
.54   Dwight Powell   Dal  .575   17.6  10.2   2.1   1.55     .539   13.2   6.9   1.3   .67
.47   Will Barton     Den  .596   19.2   6.4   2.4   1.39     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
.47   Evan Fournier   Orl  .556   20.0   3.8   2.7   1.05     .538   15.7   3.4   2.2   .59
.44   Eric Bledsoe    Phx  .577   25.9   4.5   6.7   1.84     .544   18.6   5.4   6.1  1.36

.44   C.J. McCollum   Por  .542   22.0   3.7   2.9   1.10     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
.43   Andre Iguodala  GSW  .619   12.3   5.1   5.6   1.09     .546   11.1   4.3   4.2   .61
.42   Zach LaVine     Min  .550   21.3   4.8   5.5   1.24     .508   14.1   4.1   4.7   .59
.42   Andre Drummond  Det  .523   20.1  18.7    .9   2.22     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80
.41   Kent Bazemore   Atl  .600   16.5   5.2   3.2   1.04     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47
...

Last year, among players with 600+ minutes, Gary Harris had the 2nd-worst PER: 4.9, better only than Mike Miller; the league lowest WS/48: -.046; and was 13th from the bottom in BPM: -4.3
This year, he's a bit below avg in PER (13.8) and WS (.079) -- and average in BPM (0.1)

He's started every game for Denver, and while shooting fewer 3's, he's more than doubled his success rate: .204 to .436 from the arc.
2-pt% also up a lot, from .395 to .529
This results in an improvement in TS% (and eff%) of almost .200
Ast% has doubled, from 5.9 to 11.7
ORtg up from 81 to 109. (DRtg steady at 109)

[Mike G]

Here's the top 13 from above, with other summary per-minute stats. xyz is roughly at the scale of eW/484, based on the avg improvements in other stats:
xyz = (e484*10 + PER + ws/48*75 + BPM*2)/40

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xyz  improved  yr   tm   mpg   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM     mpg  e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
.88   G Harris  2   Den   26    .64   13.7   .079    .1       9  -.16    4.9  -.046  -4.3
.78   Powell    2   Dal   22   1.55   21.2   .220   2.9       3   .67   13.8   .122   -.9
.82   Barton    4   Den   27   1.39   22.3   .191   3.5      12   .78   13.6   .063   -.6
.52   Fournier  4   Orl   38   1.05   16.1   .129   1.5      20   .59   12.4   .059  -2.1
.57   Bledsoe   6   Phx   34   1.84   23.9   .206   5.6      34  1.36   18.4   .119   2.6

.26   McCollum  3   Por   35   1.10   17.6   .104   -.3      12   .70   13.1   .089   -.7
.49   Iguodala 12   GSW   29   1.09   16.3   .195   4.0      25   .61   12.3   .117   1.6
.77   LaVine    2   Min   24   1.24   16.9   .087    .9      23   .59   11.3  -.018  -4.5
.33   Drummond  4   Det   37   2.22   24.4   .189   1.2      31  1.80   21.4   .147   -.2
.56   Bazemore  4   Atl   29   1.04   15.8   .116   1.2      16   .47    9.7   .057  -1.8

.56 Dellavedova 3   Cle   27    .82   14.3   .153   -.4      17   .25    8.5   .067  -2.6
.40   J Grant   2   Phl   27    .79   12.6   .051  -1.1      17   .26    8.7   .019  -3.3
.24   Batum     8   Cha   35   1.22   17.7   .129   2.5  Por 29   .78   13.1   .105   3.1

Again, this year is on the left, last season on the right. Last year's mpg is Min/82.
I have Batum up .44, PER is similarly inclined, WS less so -- BPM says he's down; so I stopped here.
Since these are all per minute rates, there's no accounting for increase in total contribution, unless you multiply by mpg.

[Mike G]

Dwight Powell was drafted by Charlotte in the middle of the 2nd round. Traded next day, with Brendan Haywood, to Cle for Alonzo Gee.
Before the season, the Cavs sent him with 3 other nobodies to Boston for one nobody (Keith Bogans) and some late draft picks.
He got 9 minutes in 7 weeks with the Celtics, then went with Rajon Rondo to Dallas (for Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, and Brandan Wright).
He then got 227 minutes in Dal, plus 3 in the playoffs.

He's listed as PF, but 1/3 of his minutes have been at C.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ldw01.html

Last year, 1/6 of his shots were 3's, and this year he hasn't attempted any.
His TS% is up .036, Reb up 50%, Ast up 75%, TO down 30%
He's the next Brandan Wright (?) minus the shotblocking but better rebounder. And BW never went 20 mpg.

[rlee]

After excluding return from injury & those that seem to be mostly a function of increased playing time only, I might very well use my MIP vote (if it were based on season so far) for Steph (as strange as that may be). Obviously, my vote ultimately will be based on whole season.

[Mike G]

None in the above lists are included for simple increase in playing time. All are there because their per-minute productions, shooting%, etc have improved.
It's reasonable that a player whose contributions have doubled should get more playing time, of course.

A fun and perhaps enlightening experiment would be to see the correlations between increased playing time and improvements in PER, WS/48, etc.
While some have conjectured that more minutes produces better stats, I think it works mostly the other way around.

[rlee]

Wasn't referring to the lists - just as a general principle. btw - the criteria on the NBA's official ballot states: “This award is designed to honor an up-and-coming player who has made a dramatic improvement from the previous season or seasons. it is not intended to e given to a player who has made a 'comeback' ”

" Up-and-coming" as well as "dramatic" are not defined.

Anyhow, to clarify, if not limited by whatever the official criteria mean, I think Steph might be the MIP: wild - since he was last year's MVP.

[rlee]

For those with access to ESPN Insider, here is Micah Adams' take, published yesterday: http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/ ... player-nba

[Mike G]

Two years ago, Steph Curry hadn't made any all-NBA team nor an AllStar team. But he was said to be already recognized as too good for MIP consideration:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8393&start=32

[rlee]

As far as the actual league- sponsored MIP award is concerned, it is significantly affected by named but undefined criteria and, since it is decided by a vote, subjective.