Improved players 2015-16

[Mike G]

At .254 of the season, last year's best team also seems to have the most individual improvers this season.

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eW+   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.87   Draymond Green GSW  .563   15.2   9.1   8.9   1.94     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37
.87   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .598   28.5   8.3   2.9   2.47     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0  1.85
.86   Kyle Lowry     Tor  .584   25.2   5.2   6.6   2.13     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2  1.60
.80   Jerami Grant   Phl  .495   13.1   5.9   1.4    .91     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
.80   Andre Drummond Det  .497   20.4  17.6    .9   2.31     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80

.80   Nicolas Batum  Cha  .559   19.2   6.7   4.4   1.33 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78
.78   C.J. McCollum  Por  .510   20.6   3.6   3.6   1.19     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
.75   Zach LaVine    Min  .537   20.9   5.0   5.1   1.31     .508   14.1   4.1   4.7   .59
.67   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .526   12.1   9.8   2.4   1.29     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56
.67   Paul George    Ind  .587   30.6   7.8   4.5   2.33     .545   26.5   7.2   3.6  1.86

eW+   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.65   Gary Harris    Den  .590   13.8   3.5   2.5    .59     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
.63   Evan Fournier  Orl  .561   19.5   3.9   2.5   1.05     .538   15.7   3.4   2.2   .59
.61   Rajon Rondo    Sac  .470   11.8   6.9  10.9   1.46 Dal .444   10.4   6.5   9.9  1.08
.61   Dwight Powell  Dal  .560   15.3  10.1   1.9   1.39     .539   13.2   6.9   1.3   .67
.59   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .580   16.4   5.2   2.8   1.08     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47

.59   Avery Bradley  Bos  .578   20.9   2.9   2.6   1.18     .504   16.2   3.6   2.0   .68
.59   Will Barton    Den  .577   18.0   6.9   2.3   1.28     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
.57   Thaddeus Young Brk  .526   18.4  10.1   1.4   1.41     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4   .98
.57   Andrew Wiggins Min  .499   22.2   4.1   1.7   1.15     .506   16.3   4.7   1.9   .74
.56 Matt Dellavedova Cle  .544   11.1   3.0   6.8    .77     .489    8.4   3.3   5.3   .25

eW+   per36 rates     tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
.56   Stephen Curry  GSW  .695   38.8   5.2   6.8   3.06     .629   30.4   4.6   9.0  2.70
.56   Aaron Gordon   Orl  .526   14.2   8.2   2.1   1.20     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
.56   Festus Ezeli   GSW  .558   15.3  11.2   2.1   1.66     .565   14.7  10.1    .7  1.03
.55  Marvin Williams Cha  .567   12.7   8.1   1.6    .99     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
.53   Isaiah Thomas  Bos  .547   26.4   2.5   7.5   1.96     .567   24.2   3.1   5.4  1.56

.52   Eric Bledsoe   Phx  .550   22.8   4.3   6.7   1.70     .544   18.6   5.4   6.1  1.36
.52   Reggie Jackson Det  .525   24.5   4.7   7.0   1.76     .505   18.2   5.1   7.2  1.39
.51   Victor Oladipo Orl  .476   17.9   7.0   4.4   1.51     .518   18.7   4.3   3.6  1.06
.50   Andre Iguodala GSW  .615   10.9   5.8   5.3   1.01     .546   11.1   4.3   4.2   .61
.48   Shane Larkin   Brk  .552   13.5   3.8   5.1    .91 NYK .499    9.1   3.5   3.9   .30

Rush, Barnes, and Bogut are also in the top 50 most improved. Ridiculous.
Draymond was all-defensive 1st team last year, but he's yet to make an AllStar team. Likely that changes this year, as he leads the Dubs in Reb and Ast, #3 in Stl and Blk, #2 in WS and VORP ..
Remember when he was a .327 shooter?

Kawhi is similarly undecorated, but for that Finals MVP. He's a total superstar now, leading a Spurs team which is to date their best ever and the 2nd best (SRS) team of the current century.

Downers:

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.19  Ty Lawson      Hou  .441    8.7   2.8   5.2   .23 Den .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
-1.14  George Hill    Ind  .530   14.1   3.9   4.1   .84     .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82
-.88   James Harden   Hou  .553   27.3   5.8   5.5  1.97     .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-.84   Danny Green    SAS  .429   10.3   5.3   2.7   .47     .590   17.0   5.5   2.5   1.13
-.83   Kobe Bryant    LAL  .405   17.3   4.4   3.4   .85     .469   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.56

-.79   Paul Pierce    LAC  .430    7.6   4.5   1.7   .04 Was .570   18.4   5.7   2.5   1.09
-.77   Klay Thompson  GSW  .575   21.2   3.9   3.1  1.27     .584   27.1   3.5   3.5   1.83
-.68   Lou Williams   LAL  .529   16.7   2.4   2.4   .69 Tor .552   23.2   2.7   2.9   1.36
-.66   Anthony Davis  NOP  .546   23.6  10.6   1.3  2.08     .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58
-.66   Marc Gasol     Mem  .542   18.1   8.1   3.8  1.46     .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.65   Joe Johnson    Brk  .443   11.2   4.8   3.4   .43     .518   15.6   5.0   3.6    .89
-.63 Shabazz Muhammad Min  .530   15.2   4.8    .6   .44     .545   20.8   6.5   1.6   1.31
-.63   Corey Brewer   Hou  .410    9.7   3.6   2.0   .20     .499   15.6   5.1   3.0    .88
-.60   Ersan Ilyasova Det  .553   16.4   5.9   1.4   .83 Mil .548   19.8   7.7   1.4   1.35
-.59   Chris Paul     LAC  .553   20.2   3.6   9.1  1.72     .588   22.1   4.8  11.1   2.30

-.59  Tayshaun Prince Min  .433    4.7   3.9   1.4  -.18 Det .499   11.5   5.4   2.3    .55
-.59   Derrick Rose   Chi  .403   15.2   3.5   6.5   .92     .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
-.58   Jamal Crawford LAC  .507   17.8   2.3   3.2   .73     .523   21.9   2.6   3.4   1.25
-.57   Zach Randolph  Mem  .482   17.0  10.3   1.8  1.19     .529   20.1  12.1   2.5   1.75
-.56   Kevin Martin   Min  .482   15.9   3.5   1.5   .56     .540   21.5   4.1   2.2   1.14

West with 80% of the biggest declines.

[Mike G]

Klay Thompson reduces his season deficit to -.60 with last night's game: 39 pts on .874 shooting, 7 reb, 6 ast ...
Now just 15th on the 'under' list.

[Mike G]

Here again are cross references, summarized, for improvements across eWins, PER, Win Shares, and BPM -- averaged, then multiplied by Minutes/484 to roughly scale to wins added in this year's minutes, over last year's rates.
For Paul George, last year is 20013-14.

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xyz    W+    yr1 to yr2      tm   Min    eW1   eW2    PER1   PER2    WS1   WS2   BPM1  BPM2
.76  1.30   Kyle Lowry      Tor   823   1.60   2.13   19.3   25.8   .141  .252    3.6   9.7
.54   .88   Stephen Curry   GSW   791   2.70   3.06   28.0   34.7   .288  .372    9.9  12.8
.74   .80   Zach LaVine     Min   523    .59   1.31   11.3   16.9  -.018  .091   -4.5    .7
.52   .77   Paul George     Ind   726   1.86   2.33   20.1   26.4   .178  .243    4.7   7.6
.50   .73   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   709   1.85   2.47   22.0   26.2   .204  .287    6.1   8.3

.80   .70   Gary Harris     Den   425   -.16    .59    4.9   13.1  -.046  .082   -4.3   -.2
.85   .69   Aaron Gordon    Orl   392    .48   1.20   11.4   18.4   .060  .177   -2.8   3.7
.53   .67   Will Barton     Den   612    .78   1.28   13.6   19.3   .063  .147    -.6   2.1
.53   .65   Jerami Grant    Phl   596    .26    .91    8.7   14.1   .019  .076   -3.3   -.2
.38   .65   Rajon Rondo     Sac   813   1.08   1.46   13.5   17.5   .037  .083    -.5   2.0

xyz    W+    yr1 to yr2      tm   Min    eW1   eW2    PER1   PER2    WS1   WS2   BPM1  BPM2
.43   .63   Reggie Jackson  Det   712   1.39   1.76   17.2   21.3   .104  .158     .8   3.9
.51   .61   Avery Bradley   Bos   578    .68   1.18   11.5   15.8   .049  .129   -1.7   1.5
.63   .60   Ian Mahinmi     Ind   464    .56   1.29   10.8   16.1   .090  .155   -1.2   3.4
.46   .60   Andre Iguodala  GSW   633    .61   1.01   12.3   16.0   .117  .187    1.6   4.8
.39   .58   Evan Fournier   Orl   724    .59   1.05   12.4   14.1   .059  .119   -2.1    .7

.55   .56   Kent Bazemore   Atl   490    .47   1.08    9.7   16.0   .057  .121   -1.8   1.2
.41   .56   Marvin Williams Cha   653    .57    .99   11.8   15.9   .102  .164    1.0   3.2
.46   .54  Matt Dellavedova Cle   569    .25    .77    8.5   13.6   .067  .136   -2.6   -.6
.31   .51   Andre Drummond  Det   792   1.80   2.31   21.4   24.5   .147  .177    -.2   1.2
.55   .50   Dwight Powell   Dal   438    .67   1.39   13.8   19.8   .122  .190    -.9   1.7

Disclaimer: The eW/484 rates shown are a couple days old. Most teams played 1 game in the meantime, some none; Orl played 2.
These are the top 20 in W+, starting from my top 30 in eW+. Dropouts include my #1 guy, Draymond Green. BPM says he's down from last year, despite improvements in almost every stat.
He did have one bad game that I didn't count.

[Mike G]

At .343 of the season, here are players with at least 0.25 eWins above or below last year's rates, in this year's minutes.

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eW+       Atl          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.03  Kent Bazemore   .581   17.0   5.3   2.7   1.15      .512   10.9   5.9   2.1    .47
.38   Paul Millsap    .563   20.7   9.2   3.6   1.88      .554   20.5   8.8   3.5   1.74
...
-.28   Justin Holiday .457    7.9   2.7   1.3   -.03  GSW .493   13.3   3.7   2.7    .64
-.44   Mike Muscala   .534    9.9   5.0   1.4    .39      .602   15.5   8.2   1.8   1.11
-.51   Al Horford     .540   18.3   7.6   3.6   1.53      .558   20.1   8.6   4.2   1.83
-.52   Jeff Teague    .522   19.5   3.0   7.0   1.36      .555   21.1   3.0   8.6   1.71
-.53   Tiago Splitter .556   10.9   5.9   1.6    .59  SAS .590   17.1   8.9   2.8   1.35
-.63   Kyle Korver    .607   12.5   4.1   2.5    .60      .691   16.8   4.6   3.0    .95
                                    
eW+       Bos          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.64   Isaiah Thomas   .548   25.1   3.0   7.6   1.86      .567   24.2   3.1   5.4   1.56
.53   Jae Crowder     .569   16.2   5.5   2.1   1.08      .510   13.6   6.2   1.9    .81
.45   Avery Bradley   .550   18.5   2.6   2.4    .93      .504   16.2   3.6   2.0    .68
.25   Amir Johnson    .562   12.1   8.3   2.5   1.09  Tor .595   13.9   8.6   2.2    .92
-.46   Jonas Jerebko  .471    7.6   6.3   2.0    .26      .544   13.4   7.9   1.9    .87
                                    
eW+       Brk          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.84   Thaddeus Young  .520   17.8  10.5   1.5   1.40      .501   15.6   6.2   2.4    .98
.50   Shane Larkin    .542   12.4   3.7   5.1    .82  NYK .499    9.1   3.5   3.9    .30
.41   Jarrett Jack    .506   15.3   5.1   6.7   1.12      .514   15.9   3.9   5.5    .92
...
-.25 Bojan Bogdanovic .522   11.8   4.3   1.0    .28      .556   14.3   4.1   1.2    .45
-.28  Wayne Ellington .466   10.4   3.2   1.0    .21  LAL .501   13.4   4.5   2.0    .54
-.45  Andrea Bargnani .493   15.9   5.2    .5    .58  NYK .519   20.2   6.0   1.9   1.20
-.77   Joe Johnson    .444   11.4   4.3   3.5    .49      .518   15.6   5.0   3.6    .89
                                    
eW+       Cha          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.24  Nicolas Batum   .550   18.6   6.8   5.1   1.43  Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3    .78
.87   Marvin Williams .543   12.4   8.3   1.6   1.05      .536   11.0   6.8   1.6    .57
.43   Kemba Walker    .533   20.3   4.3   5.3   1.54      .479   19.1   3.8   5.0   1.35
.29   Jeremy Lamb     .551   18.1   6.4   2.2   1.19  Okl .532   16.6   5.7   2.4    .98
.25   Jeremy Lin      .537   16.6   3.8   4.3   1.07  LAL .528   15.7   3.7   5.5    .91
                                    
eW+       Chi          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.38   Doug McDermott  .553   14.6   3.1   1.1    .42      .476   11.6   4.4    .7    .10
-.36   Nikola Mirotic .510   16.8   8.0   2.0   1.11      .544   19.3   8.4   2.1   1.43
-.92   Derrick Rose   .415   15.5   3.3   5.9    .88      .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
                                    
eW+       Cle          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.00 Matt Dellavedova .573   12.4   2.9   6.8    .94      .489    8.4   3.3   5.3    .25
.63   Kevin Love      .559   21.5  12.5   2.9   1.96      .552   19.1  10.9   2.4   1.63
.37  Tristan Thompson .535    9.8  13.1   1.1   1.14      .566   12.3  11.1    .7    .89
.27   LeBron James    .558   29.9   8.2   6.8   2.52      .565   28.2   6.3   7.6   2.43
...
-.26   R Jefferson    .542   11.5   2.4   1.6    .25  Dal .567   12.8   5.0   1.8    .48
-.30   Andy Varejao   .447    7.3   8.8   1.5    .47      .573   15.9  10.0   2.1   1.24
                                    
eW+       Dal          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.54   Dwight Powell   .557   14.3   9.3   1.5   1.16      .539   13.2   6.9   1.3    .67
.48   Zaza Pachulia   .552   13.5  12.6   2.3   1.39  Mil .498   13.3  10.6   3.5   1.13
.31   Deron Williams  .532   17.2   3.4   6.5   1.24  Brk .496   15.4   4.1   7.0   1.08
.27   Dirk Nowitzki   .576   22.2   8.0   2.3   1.70      .552   22.1   7.0   2.3   1.57
...
-.25   J.J. Barea     .472   13.6   3.0   6.4    .74      .497   14.9   3.3   7.0   1.03
-.26   Jeremy Evans   .750    8.4   5.7    .2    .31  Uta .621   13.4   9.4   1.7   1.14
-.27   C Villanueva   .508   16.4   6.3   1.4    .87      .531   20.5   7.2   1.0   1.33
-.47 Chandler Parsons .501   14.0   4.3   2.5    .60      .560   18.2   5.2   2.8   1.11
-.61  Wesley Matthews .509   15.1   3.3   2.1    .69  Por .580   19.1   3.9   2.5   1.07
                                    
eW+       Den          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.96   Will Barton     .562   18.7   7.2   2.5   1.33      .496   14.0   5.6   2.8    .78
.88   Gary Harris     .568   13.5   3.2   2.1    .51      .391    7.7   3.0   1.3   -.16
.50 Joffrey Lauvergne .560   16.4  12.3   2.3   1.55      .451   10.9   9.5   1.6    .59
.47  Danilo Gallinari .549   18.7   6.5   2.7   1.32      .553   18.6   5.3   1.9   1.10
.36   Kenneth Faried  .553   17.1  12.5   1.5   1.57      .538   16.4  11.3   1.5   1.33
-.37   Randy Foye     .447    9.4   3.2   3.0    .21      .506   13.9   2.7   3.6    .54
                                    
eW+       Det          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.02  Andre Drummond  .492   19.9  17.2   1.0   2.23      .494   16.6  15.8    .8   1.80
.99   Reggie Jackson  .530   25.3   4.9   7.2   1.87      .505   18.2   5.1   7.2   1.39
.36   K Caldwell-Pope .502   14.7   3.2   2.0    .70      .496   14.8   3.5   1.4    .56
-.32   Aron Baynes    .491   11.0   8.8   1.6    .70  SAS .608   16.7  10.1   1.1   1.12
-.60   Ersan Ilyasova .539   15.8   6.4   1.5    .96  Mil .548   19.8   7.7   1.4   1.35
                                    
eW+       GSW          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.31  Draymond Green  .552   15.5   9.2   8.6   2.01      .532   14.1   9.1   4.5   1.37
.65   Brandon Rush    .616   12.3   6.4   2.0    .71      .252    2.7   4.9   1.6   -.38
.63   Festus Ezeli    .557   15.4  11.2   1.8   1.56      .565   14.7  10.1    .7   1.03
.55   Andre Iguodala  .574    9.6   5.8   5.0    .95      .546   11.1   4.3   4.2    .61
.40   Harrison Barnes .595   16.9   6.0   2.7   1.17      .566   13.8   6.8   1.9    .82
.40   Andrew Bogut    .628   10.1  11.8   4.6   1.67      .561   10.4  11.9   4.5   1.22
.30   Stephen Curry   .677   35.7   5.6   7.1   2.80      .629   30.4   4.6   9.0   2.70
...
-.26  Leandro Barbosa .505   13.1   2.9   3.7    .61      .552   17.6   3.1   3.7    .99
-.33 Shaun Livingston .520    8.4   3.2   4.5    .45      .522   11.5   4.2   6.7    .76
-.47   M Speights     .407   14.2   8.6   2.0    .76      .538   24.0   9.0   2.2   1.78
-.60   Klay Thompson  .606   23.2   4.0   3.3   1.43      .584   27.1   3.5   3.5   1.83
                                    
eW+       Hou          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.55   Clint Capela    .568   13.4  11.6   1.2   1.46      .395   10.7  13.2    .8   1.02
-.40   Terrence Jones .518   14.5   7.1   1.5    .92      .558   16.6   8.8   1.6   1.28
-.61   Corey Brewer   .443   10.5   3.6   2.6    .39      .499   15.6   5.1   3.0    .88
-.88   James Harden   .564   27.9   5.7   6.3   2.06      .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-1.30   Ty Lawson     .420    7.7   2.5   5.9    .31  Den .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
                                    
eW+       Ind          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.06  Ian Mahinmi     .562   12.7  10.1   2.3   1.35      .504    8.5  10.9   1.0    .56
.35   Paul George     .560   28.1   7.6   4.1   1.99 2014 .545   26.5   7.2   3.6   1.86
...
-.32   Rodney Stuckey .514   15.4   4.2   3.7    .86      .520   18.5   4.8   4.2   1.16
-.37   Lavoy Allen    .445    8.2   8.4   2.0    .56      .488   10.7  10.5   2.4    .91
-.53   Monta Ellis    .472   14.1   3.1   5.5    .91  Dal .502   20.5   2.5   4.7   1.23
-1.75   George Hill   .520   13.4   3.8   3.7    .77      .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82
                                    
eW+       LAC          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.26   Josh Smith     .466   12.4   7.5   3.0    .94  Hou .461   15.8   8.2   4.5   1.27
-.31   Austin Rivers  .465   10.6   2.6   1.9    .21      .474   11.9   3.5   3.5    .46
-.34 Lance Stephenson .515    8.7   4.5   3.2    .26  Cha .414   11.0   6.3   5.1    .62
-.39 Luc Mbah a Moute .419    5.4   5.0    .5   -.09  Phl .460   12.0   6.0   1.7    .53
-.54   Chris Paul     .556   20.6   3.3  10.4   1.92      .588   22.1   4.8  11.1   2.30
-.94   Paul Pierce    .437    7.9   4.0   1.5    .05  Was .570   18.4   5.7   2.5   1.09
-1.05  Jamal Crawford .487   15.2   2.0   3.1    .54      .523   21.9   2.6   3.4   1.25
                                    
eW+       LAL          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.29   Brandon Bass   .591   10.7   7.2   1.4    .66  Bos .548   16.9   7.3   1.9   1.07
-.48   Roy Hibbert    .542    9.8   7.9   2.0    .86  Ind .494   15.7  10.1   1.6   1.20
-.48  Jordan Clarkson .528   16.6   3.8   2.2    .75      .521   17.0   4.6   4.4   1.05
-.55   Nick Young     .540   14.1   2.1    .7    .31      .512   19.4   3.4   1.2    .86
-.74   Kobe Bryant    .443   19.2   4.5   3.6   1.05      .469   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.56
-.75   Lou Williams   .563   17.2   2.9   2.6    .84  Tor .552   23.2   2.7   2.9   1.36
                                    
eW+       Mem          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.48   Matt Barnes     .520   12.4   6.7   2.0    .84  LAC .569   13.1   4.8   1.9    .55
.45   Mario Chalmers  .573   18.1   3.4   4.0   1.10  Mia .511   13.1   3.3   4.6    .60
...
-.28   Tony Allen     .413    9.5   6.1   1.5    .51      .520   13.0   6.3   1.9    .78
-.62   Jeff Green     .491   13.4   5.1   2.0    .63      .526   18.5   4.9   2.0   1.00
-.74   Zach Randolph  .494   16.4  10.3   2.0   1.23      .529   20.1  12.1   2.5   1.75
-.83   Marc Gasol     .536   17.9   8.4   4.0   1.48      .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89
                                    
eW+       Mia          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.27   Tyler Johnson   .621   15.9   3.5   2.6    .83      .499   11.5   5.0   2.4    .53
-.26   Beno Udrih     .567    9.9   3.3   3.4    .26  Mem .544   16.1   3.5   5.3    .98
-.31   Goran Dragic   .495   14.3   3.9   6.1    .96      .570   19.0   3.8   4.8   1.16
-.52   Gerald Green   .538   17.0   3.1   1.0    .67  Phx .527   21.7   4.4   2.1   1.15
                                    
eW+       Mil          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.30 MCarter-Williams .491   14.4   4.6   5.7    .94      .454   16.1   5.9   6.7   1.17
-.33  Greivis Vasquez .449   10.0   3.2   5.6    .39  Tor .511   14.2   4.0   5.6    .84
-.40   O.J. Mayo      .479   12.9   3.6   3.5    .63      .523   18.3   4.0   3.9   1.00
-.56  Khris Middleton .528   15.9   3.3   3.0    .83      .557   17.9   5.4   2.6   1.11
                                    
eW+       Min          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.92   Zach LaVine     .523   20.4   4.7   4.7   1.21      .508   14.1   4.1   4.7    .59
.78   Andrew Wiggins  .515   22.7   4.0   1.7   1.12      .506   16.3   4.7   1.9    .74
.73   Ricky Rubio     .463   11.6   6.0  10.4   1.60      .444   10.7   6.7   9.1   1.10
...
-.61   Kevin Martin   .496   16.8   3.1   1.8    .67      .540   21.5   4.1   2.2   1.14
-.82 Shabazz Muhammad .542   14.7   5.3    .5    .49      .545   20.8   6.5   1.6   1.31
-.86  Tayshaun Prince .448    4.5   3.5   1.4   -.20  Det .499   11.5   5.4   2.3    .55
                                    
eW+       NOP          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.28   Ish Smith       .481   12.2   4.7   7.8   1.09  Phl .427   13.6   4.1   7.0    .89
-.36   Alexis Ajinca  .531   12.2   9.3    .8    .79      .585   17.9  11.7   1.6   1.46
-.40   Alonzo Gee     .564    6.2   4.6   1.6    .11  Por .537   12.7   4.7   1.2    .45
-.44   Omer Asik      .500    5.2   9.1    .6    .30      .531   10.7  14.0   1.3   1.04
-1.02  Anthony Davis  .546   22.9  10.6   1.4   1.97      .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58
                                    
eW+       NYK          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.55   Arron Afflalo   .556   17.2   4.5   2.1    .89  Por .526   15.1   3.5   1.8    .50
.39   Lance Thomas    .612   15.1   3.1   1.1    .47      .451   10.2   4.7   1.6    .16
.37   Jose Calderon   .561   10.2   3.8   5.1    .70      .516   11.2   3.6   5.1    .49
.26  Derrick Williams .509   17.0   5.2   1.7    .91  Sac .529   14.6   5.0   1.2    .59
                                    
eW+       OKC          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.33   Serge Ibaka     .529   16.2   8.5   1.1   1.28      .545   16.3   8.4   1.0   1.13
.32   Steven Adams    .572   10.1   9.8   1.0   1.00      .535   11.3  10.4   1.4    .80
-.26   Kyle Singler   .323    4.8   4.0    .3   -.33      .508   10.0   3.9   1.7    .18
-.44   Anthony Morrow .532   11.6   2.4    .9    .22      .599   16.7   3.7   1.2    .75
-.48   D.J. Augustin  .524    9.4   2.4   3.9    .27      .518   14.7   2.9   6.0    .79
                                    
eW+       Orl          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.92   Elfrid Payton   .459   14.8   4.6   7.0   1.23      .448   10.1   5.1   6.8    .74
.73   Evan Fournier   .550   17.9   3.8   2.5    .97      .538   15.7   3.4   2.2    .59
.49   Aaron Gordon    .523   11.9   7.8   2.0    .93      .509   10.7   7.5   1.3    .48
.44   Tobias Harris   .544   17.9   8.3   2.1   1.36      .543   18.6   6.7   1.6   1.15
.36   Victor Oladipo  .474   16.8   6.1   4.4   1.26      .518   18.7   4.3   3.6   1.06
.32   Channing Frye   .630   12.7   5.5   1.7    .73      .544   10.9   5.7   1.5    .37
                                    
eW+       Phl          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.85   Jerami Grant    .479   12.1   5.8   1.3    .76      .458   10.1   4.9   1.7    .26
-.29  Hollis Thompson .517   10.6   4.3   1.4    .24      .533   13.0   3.9   1.5    .42
-.29   Tony Wroten    .401   14.5   4.5   3.8    .15      .484   20.4   3.4   5.4   1.15
-.54   Isaiah Canaan  .512   14.1   2.5   2.2    .44      .529   17.0   3.2   3.4    .78
                                    
eW+       Phx          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.69   Eric Bledsoe    .552   22.3   4.3   6.4   1.65      .544   18.6   5.4   6.1   1.36
.45   Jon Leuer       .552   14.2   9.5   2.1   1.14  Mem .473   12.5   8.9   2.0    .81
.40   Alex Len        .524   12.9  10.4   1.1   1.04      .533   10.3  10.4    .7    .72
.34   T.J. Warren     .553   16.3   4.9   1.1    .80      .548   14.2   4.7   1.4    .56
...
-.26   Brandon Knight .535   20.2   4.1   5.1   1.26      .535   20.9   4.4   5.5   1.40
-.34  Markieff Morris .438   15.4   7.2   2.8    .81      .517   17.8   7.0   2.7   1.15
-.40   P.J. Tucker    .489    7.6   6.9   1.7    .37      .534   11.0   7.5   1.8    .62
-.60   Tyson Chandler .519    7.1  11.6    .6    .73  Dal .678   14.1  13.3   1.4   1.35
                                    
eW+       Por          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.27  C.J. McCollum   .536   21.5   3.5   4.0   1.27      .528   16.1   3.1   2.3    .70
.55   Allen Crabbe    .562   14.1   3.3   1.5    .50      .522    8.9   3.6   2.0    .14
.32   Al-Farouq Aminu .514   13.2   8.3   1.9    .88  Dal .495   10.4   8.5   1.6    .74
.26   Mason Plumlee   .548   13.0  10.9   3.4   1.33  Brk .554   15.6  10.4   1.4   1.20
.26  Maurice Harkless .517    9.0   6.2   1.6    .31  Orl .443    7.6   5.5   1.1    .08
...
-.25 Gerald Henderson .498   13.5   4.4   1.5    .44  Cha .507   16.1   4.3   3.0    .82
-.44   Noah Vonleh    .472    7.0   7.9   1.0    .27  Cha .466   11.0  11.2    .5    .77
-.47   Meyers Leonard .481   11.3   6.8   2.3    .61      .626   15.4   9.9   1.3   1.05
                                    
eW+       Sac          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.06   Rajon Rondo    .493   12.3   6.6  11.1   1.58  Dal .444   10.4   6.5   9.9   1.08
-.44   Rudy Gay       .519   19.3   7.4   1.9   1.25      .546   22.0   6.2   3.8   1.52
-.44 DeMarcus Cousins .503   26.0  11.3   2.9   2.09      .532   25.9  13.9   3.7   2.46
-.51  Darren Collison .551   15.3   2.1   4.8    .75      .565   17.4   3.4   5.8   1.14
-.63  Marco Belinelli .520   13.6   1.9   2.6    .31  SAS .547   16.0   4.1   2.5    .74
                                    
eW+       SAS          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.23  Kawhi Leonard   .606   28.0   8.5   3.2   2.46      .557   21.2   8.4   3.0   1.85
.76   Tony Parker     .599   21.1   3.3   7.4   1.71      .533   20.0   2.5   6.6   1.26
-.27   Tim Duncan     .556   14.8  11.5   4.4   1.77      .549   19.4  11.7   3.9   2.00
-.77   Danny Green    .444   10.9   5.6   2.8    .63      .590   17.0   5.5   2.5   1.13
                                    
eW+       Tor          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.84   Kyle Lowry      .556   23.5   5.3   6.4   1.94      .519   19.5   5.1   7.2   1.60
.66   DeMar DeRozan   .532   24.8   4.6   4.2   1.62      .499   21.2   5.0   3.7   1.37
.48   Bismack Biyombo .511    8.3  13.3    .4   1.05  Cha .556    9.5  11.5    .4    .75
...
-.36  DeMarre Carroll .477   14.0   5.6   1.5    .76  Atl .594   16.6   6.2   2.0   1.06
-.37   Luis Scola     .518   16.5   9.0   1.4   1.15  Ind .505   17.2  11.2   2.3   1.42
-.45   Cory Joseph    .530   12.1   3.4   3.9    .68  SAS .554   14.6   4.8   4.7    .96
-.51   Pat Patterson  .486    8.7   6.4   1.6    .41      .563   11.4   7.4   2.6    .78
                                    
eW+       Uta          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.27   Alec Burks      .501   19.2   4.8   2.7   1.04      .513   16.5   4.9   3.4    .88
-.49   Gordon Hayward .561   21.6   5.4   3.3   1.37      .555   23.1   5.5   4.4   1.66
                                    
eW+       Was          Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2015 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.58   Otto Porter     .514   13.0   5.9   2.4    .82      .517   11.6   5.5   1.5    .47
.26   Ramon Sessions  .567   14.8   3.5   3.6    .80      .478   11.9   4.4   5.2    .57
-.33   Kris Humphries .509   11.8   8.1   1.3    .72      .504   14.1  11.2   1.4   1.16

Teams with no major losers: Hornets, Knicks, Magic
And with no big gainers: Clipps, Lakers, Bucks

[Mike G]

Orlando looks like this year's candidate for universal improvement among all returning players. Last year, it was the Bucks; year before that, the Suns.
This season on the left, last yr on the right:

Code: Select all

eW+    per36 rates   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.92   Elfrid Payton  .459   14.8   4.6   7.0  1.23      .448   10.1   5.1   6.8   .74
.73   Evan Fournier  .550   17.9   3.8   2.5   .97      .538   15.7   3.4   2.2   .59
.49   Aaron Gordon   .523   11.9   7.8   2.0   .93      .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
.44   Tobias Harris  .544   17.9   8.3   2.1  1.36      .543   18.6   6.7   1.6  1.15
.36   Victor Oladipo .474   16.8   6.1   4.4  1.26      .518   18.7   4.3   3.6  1.06

.32   Channing Frye  .630   12.7   5.5   1.7   .73      .544   10.9   5.7   1.5   .37
.23 Andrew Nicholson .561   15.1   7.6    .3   .79      .479   13.2   5.8   1.3   .50
.13   Nikola Vucevic .536   21.4  10.5   3.0  1.86      .543   21.4  11.8   1.9  1.82
.11   Dewayne Dedmon .527    9.5   8.9    .2   .86      .557    9.3  12.3    .3   .66
.03   Shabazz Napier .446   10.3   2.1   5.1   .35  Mia .510    9.6   4.2   4.5   .31

-.02   Devyn Marble  .182    3.6   2.0    .0  -.74      .356    5.2   5.2   2.5  -.03
-.11   Jason Smith   .546   11.7   5.2    .9   .51  NYK .491   13.0   6.6   2.5   .67
-.16   C.J. Watson   .458    8.1   3.2   4.9   .49  Ind .569   16.2   4.1   5.1  1.00                           

They lost Willie Green, Kyle O'Quinn, Ben Gordon, Ridnour, and Harkless -- guys who totaled 48 mpg last year.
Meanwhile, their returning players are almost universally better this year by these stats:

Code: Select all

. Magics        Min   PER   WS/48   BPM      PER   WS/48    BPM
Tobias Harris   925   17.9   .155   2.1      16.7   .098    0.0
Evan Fournier   916   14.6   .125   1.2      12.4   .059   -2.1
Elfrid Payton   898   15.2   .084   0.1      13.8   .044   -0.7
Victor Oladipo  797   14.5   .074   0.5      15.9   .065    0.0
Nikola Vucevic  789   22.6   .174   3.7      21.5   .133    0.5
Aaron Gordon    522   16.6   .151   2.3      11.4   .060   -2.8
Channing Frye   429   14.2   .153   2.5       9.5   .053   -0.9
Andr Nicholson  374   13.5   .097  -4.6      10.3   .007   -6.2
Jason Smith     365   11.3   .078  -2.8  NYK 12.0   .032   -3.4
Mario Hezonja   324    9.5   .045  -3.2      rookie      
Shabazz Napier  310   10.0   .022  -5.0  Mia  9.3   .024   -2.6
Dewayne Dedmon  242   13.0   .139  -1.2      13.3   .099   -3.3
C.J. Watson     156   11.8   .096  -1.0  Ind 15.4   .135    1.5

Improvements rank from subtle to profound, through their top 8.
Not counting the rookie, they total 6.9 WS (and 3.5 eWins) ahead of last year's rates * this year's minutes.

[BasketDork]

It feels good to be able to step out of witness protection and admit for the first time in a few years that I'm a Magic fan. I had them at 30 wins this year, and am glad I undershot them, and as they continue to add wings, decent role players, and aren't investing too much all at once in any one player, they're setting themselves up to make a run at a few more really good players in free agency. I knew Oladipo would continue to improve, (seems to leveling off though as of late, numbers seem to reflect this.),and that Vucevic was an all-star caliber player, I knew Elfrid Payton would continue to grow, yet he's still surprised me from year 1 to year 2, but I didnt expect this much improvement in A.Gordon, Tobias or Fournier. Scott Skiles has them hustling, playing harder, and getting better looks. All in all I'm pleasantly surprised.

[Mike G]

Hornets are another drastically improved team. Lots of their lineup is new this year, including one serious rookie.

Code: Select all

eW+    per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '1415 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.24  Nicolas Batum  .550   18.6   6.8   5.1   1.43  Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78
.87  Marvin Williams .543   12.4   8.3   1.6   1.05      .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
.43   Kemba Walker   .533   20.3   4.3   5.3   1.54      .479   19.1   3.8   5.0  1.35
.29   Jeremy Lamb    .551   18.1   6.4   2.2   1.19  Okl .532   16.6   5.7   2.4   .98
.25   Jeremy Lin     .537   16.6   3.8   4.3   1.07  LAL .528   15.7   3.7   5.5   .91

.18   Cody Zeller    .541   13.3   7.3   1.6    .98      .519   12.2   8.7   2.2   .85
.14   Spencer Hawes  .533   11.3   6.7   3.6    .78  LAC .473   11.5   7.1   2.5   .65
.04 Tyler Hansbrough .548   12.1   6.5   1.4    .74  Tor .576    9.5   8.9    .7   .51
-.01   Troy Daniels  .593   14.7   2.1   1.3    .31      .513   15.4   2.8   1.7   .43
-.02   Al Jefferson  .509   19.8   8.5   2.6   1.70      .495   20.6  10.0   2.0  1.76

-.02   P.J. Hairston .472   10.7   4.8   1.4    .38      .443   12.5   4.6   1.0   .42
-.07   Brian Roberts .418    8.0   3.6   3.8    .22      .491   13.2   2.9   3.9   .56

Their #1 guy in minutes, G Henderson, is gone; as are their #5, 6, 9-17
Here's everyone with >100 minutes, in those other stats:

Code: Select all

. Hornets       Min   PER   WS/48   BPM      PER   WS/48   BPM
Kemba Walker    974   19.0   .141   2.9      17.6   .101   2.2
Nicolas Batum   919   17.1   .115   2.7  Por 13.1   .105   3.1
Marvin Williams 848   14.1   .132   2.0      11.8   .102   1.0
Jeremy Lin      704   16.0   .120   0.5  LAL 15.6   .068  -0.8
Jeremy Lamb     601   18.4   .142   0.7  OKC 14.9   .123  -1.6
Cody Zeller     594   14.9   .152   0.5      14.1   .123   0.4
Frank Kaminski  505   13.2   .116  -0.2      rookie      
Spencer Hawes   459   11.8   .088  -1.1  LAC  9.8   .044  -1.9
P.J. Hairston   447    7.2   .043  -3.1       9.0   .022  -3.5
Al Jefferson    446   19.7   .141   0.4      19.7   .113   0.2

No idea what's behind BPM's failure to recognize Batum's leap forward. WS is pretty meh, too.
These 10 total an extra 3.8 WS over last year's rates. At that rate, they'll produce 11 WS more than they would have, had they not improved.
Defying the 'aging curve'?

[Statman]

The last two teams talked about, Orlando & Charlotte, are two teams with the right mix of age & player statistical types that my player projection model saw as being in great situations for big improvement. It had the Hornets being a viable contender in the East with a 14 game improvement from '14-15, & Orlando being in position for a playoff seed with a 13 game improvement.

Based on how my player projections played out, those were probably the two teams I was most curious about going into this season.

As for Orlando specifically, they are so young across the board with diverse talents that should continue to improve. Ignoring the fact there isn't a future projected "superstar" on the team - they seem to easily have the most good/very good future potential on their roster in the NBA. Maybe they'll find a superstar the next couple years - or maybe they'll just be such a strong/deep roster they'll seriously contend in the near future anyway, say like the last few Piston champions.

[Statman]

No idea what's behind BPM's failure to recognize Batum's leap forward. WS is pretty meh, too.
These 10 total an extra 3.8 WS over last year's rates. At that rate, they'll produce 11 WS more than they would have, had they not improved.
Defying the 'aging curve'?

Completely with you on Batum - looked at his production closer to see how BPM could have him worse than last season, WS only slightly better - cannot figure out statistically where the slight possibly could be. It'd make sense if he had a fairly big drop in assist rate relative to defensive rebounds, but that isn't even an issue. This Hornet team is a little better defensively than Portland was, albeit with a slightly faster pace. It's kinda a mystery.

My work has Batum as significantly improved. 5.0 WAR, 8.5 WAR/48, 101 HnI in '14-15 (ranked 71st, 130th, 136th respectively)- in essence a slightly better than average NBA player. This season through Tuesday he's on a 7.8 WAR pace, 11.6 WAR/48, 111 HnI, ranking 45th, 64th, 62nd. As far as I'm concerned, he's having a much improved season.

[BasketDork]

Just took a quick look at Batum, it really is a mystery, of all the components of BPM, his ORB%, DRB%, AST%, USG%, TS%, TRB% have all improved, his STL% drop is miniscule (1.7 to 1.6 this year), his TOV% is only 0.3 higher than last year, his BLK% is the same, the only glaring differences are his 3PAr and 3PAr relative to league dropped .515 last year, .461 this year, relative to league he was .247 better last year, this year only .179 better, his TS% is .040 better than last year (.556 from.516), and relative to team, last year it was(-.028) worse than Portland's, this year .017 better than Charlotte's, the only explanations left are his USG% spiked to 23.2 from 14.6 in a more crowded offense last year, but he's coming out on top in the Usage vs. Efficiency matter, and that his reMPG has dropped from 31.73 to 29.64, but that doesn't answer the question either because he's increased his production across the board despite it.

[Mike G]

From his BPM peak in 2013-14, Batum has gone to mostly defensive, and now to mostly offensive.

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year  tm   PER    OWS   DWS   OBPM  DBPM
2014  Por  15.8   4.8   3.1    2.4   1.8
2015  Por  13.1   2.0   3.2    0.6   2.6
2016  Cha  17.1   1.0   1.2    1.9   0.8

Win Shares is another story.

Yes, you (Statman) got Cha and Orl pretty close in your predictions. But the Hornets aren't especially young. At 25.9, they're a year below league avg, 10th youngest. Why does Marvin Williams suddenly become a rebounding force at age 29?

[BasketDork]

Haven't checked yet, does the team adjustment penalize him more severely with Charlotte than it did with Portland ? While playing with Lilliard, Aldridge helps in overall team department, it hurt HIS numbers more, so where is the perceived dropoff?

[Statman]

Yes, you (Statman) got Cha and Orl pretty close in your predictions. But the Hornets aren't especially young.

Looking at my post when the season started http://hoopsnerd.com/?p=885

Here's how the player projections looked (NBA avg. WAR/48 is 8.2, average HN/48 would be 100). Used Kevin Pelton's minute projections:

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+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+
| Rank |      Player      | Confidence |  Age  | Team | G  | Min  | MPG | HN/48 | WAR  | WAR/48 |
+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+
|   24 | Kemba Walker     | 80.14%     | 25.23 | cha  | 77 | 2618 |  34 |   123 | 9.67 | 14.55  |
|   27 | Al Jefferson     | 77.13%     | 30.57 | cha  | 77 | 2310 |  30 |   130 | 9.12 | 15.55  |
|   60 | Nicolas Batum    | 88.87%     | 26.63 | cha  | 77 | 2618 |  34 |    98 | 6.09 | 9.16   |
|   88 | Frank Kaminsky   | 43.72%     | 22.32 | cha  | 78 | 1560 |  20 |   116 | 4.51 | 11.38  |
|  105 | Cody Zeller      | 54.86%     | 22.82 | cha  | 77 | 1694 |  22 |   104 | 4.14 | 9.63   |
|  107 | Jeremy Lin       | 69.05%     | 26.94 | cha  | 77 | 1694 |  22 |   104 | 4.10 | 9.53   |
|  126 | Jeremy Lamb      | 36.11%     | 23.17 | cha  | 78 | 1560 |  20 |   100 | 3.45 | 8.72   |
|  174 | Marvin Williams  | 68.60%     | 29.12 | cha  | 77 | 1648 |  21 |    87 | 2.59 | 6.18   |
|  239 | Spencer Hawes    | 59.93%     | 27.26 | cha  | 78 |  936 |  12 |    91 | 1.39 | 5.85   |
|  261 | Tyler Hansbrough | 38.11%     | 29.74 | cha  | 78 |  936 |  12 |    86 | 1.06 | 4.45   |
|  293 | Brian Roberts    | 53.24%     | 29.66 | cha  | 78 |  780 |  10 |    83 | 0.65 | 3.26   |
|  334 | P.J. Hairston    | 28.99%     | 22.60 | cha  | 78 |  936 |  12 |    74 | 0.22 | 0.91   |
|  389 | Troy Daniels     | 31.30%     | 24.05 | cha  | 78 |  390 |   5 |    69 | 0.00 | 0.00   |
+------+------------------+------------+-------+------+----+------+-----+-------+------+--------+

6 of the top 7 minutes guys in the projection were expected to be at least as good if not better than the average NBA player in terms of impact when on the court.

Here's how the actual WAR pace & WAR/48 for Charlotte guys looked as of Tuesday:

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+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+
| Rank |      Player      | Pos | Age | G  | MP  | M/g  | WARpace | WAR/48 | Rank |
+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+
|   30 | Kemba Walker     | PG  |  25 | 27 | 933 | 34.6 | 10.32   | 14.45  |   40 |
|   45 | Nicolas Batum    | SG  |  27 | 26 | 879 | 33.8 | 7.81    | 11.60  |   64 |
|   78 | Marvin Williams  | PF  |  29 | 27 | 831 | 30.8 | 5.30    | 8.33   |  116 |
|   82 | Jeremy Lamb      | SG  |  23 | 26 | 582 | 22.4 | 5.07    | 11.38  |   68 |
|   93 | Jeremy Lin       | PG  |  27 | 27 | 672 | 24.9 | 4.70    | 9.13   |   98 |
|   94 | Al Jefferson     | C   |  31 | 17 | 446 | 26.2 | 4.55    | 13.31  |   48 |
|  135 | Cody Zeller      | C   |  23 | 25 | 560 | 22.4 | 3.33    | 7.77   |  127 |
|  192 | Spencer Hawes    | PF  |  27 | 26 | 453 | 17.4 | 1.88    | 5.41   |  181 |
|  194 | Frank Kaminsky   | C   |  22 | 26 | 474 | 18.2 | 1.81    | 4.98   |  194 |
|  257 | Tyler Hansbrough | PF  |  30 | 13 |  81 | 6.2  | 0.58    | 9.31   |      |
|  289 | Troy Daniels     | SG  |  24 | 12 |  62 | 5.2  | 0.22    | 4.57   |      |
|  329 | Aaron Harrison   | SG  |  21 |  5 |  23 | 4.6  | 0.00    | 0.00   |      |
|  357 | P.J. Hairston    | SF  |  23 | 24 | 435 | 18.1 | 0.00    | 0.00   |  300 |
|  367 | Brian Roberts    | PG  |  30 | 13 |  99 | 7.6  | 0.00    | 0.00   |      |
+------+------------------+-----+-----+----+-----+------+---------+--------+------+

9 rotation guys, 6 are performing above NBA average. Of those 6, 5 (Walker, Jefferson, Batum, Lamb, Lin) were projected to be above average impact when on the court, Marvin Williams was the one who has gone from below average projection to about average production.

Kaminsky & Zeller (the young guys who aren't performing to projection) w/ Jefferson (mainly missed games) were my over projections, Williams (improved PT & performance) my main under projection, with a small handful of guys playing slightly better than the projections.

[Mike G]

Categorical improvers and downers, top and bottom 10.
Minimum 400 minutes this year and 200 last year -- 250 players.

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Eff%+  =Pts/(2*fga+fta) 2016  Eff%   2015  Eff%
.148   Gary Harris      Den   .538   Den   .391
.140   Lance Thomas     NYK   .590   NYK   .451
.106   Tyler Johnson    Mia   .605   Mia   .499
.097   Thabo Sefolosha  Atl   .597   Atl   .500
.094   Ronnie Price     Phx   .544   LAL   .450
.093   Jon Leuer        Phx   .566   Mem   .473
.090   Jose Calderon    NYK   .607   NYK   .516
.089   Channing Frye    Orl   .633   Orl   .544
.088   Lance Stephenson LAC   .502   Cha   .414
.088   Johnny O'Bryant  Mil   .462   Mil   .375
...               
-.082   Markieff Morris Phx   .435   Phx   .517
-.085 Patrick Patterson Tor   .478   Tor   .563
-.099   Tony Allen      Mem   .422   Mem   .520
-.100   Paul Pierce     LAC   .471   Was   .570
-.100   Meyers Leonard  Por   .526   Por   .626
-.110   Danny Green     SAS   .480   SAS   .590
-.118   DeMarre Carroll Tor   .476   Atl   .594
-.125   Aron Baynes     Det   .484   SAS   .608
-.125   Tyson Chandler  Phx   .553   Dal   .678
-.133   Kyle Korver     Atl   .558   Atl   .691


Sco+  Pts/36 adjusted   2016   Sco   2015   Sco
7.3   Nicolas Batum     Cha   18.0   Por   10.7
6.4   Reggie Jackson    Det   24.6   Det   18.2
6.3   Kawhi Leonard     SAS   27.5   SAS   21.2
6.1   Allen Crabbe      Por   15.0   Por    8.9
6.1   C.J. McCollum     Por   22.2   Por   16.1
5.8   Kent Bazemore     Atl   16.7   Atl   10.9
5.4   Gary Harris       Den   13.1   Den    7.7
5.3   Andrew Wiggins    Min   21.6   Min   16.3
5.3   Will Barton       Den   19.2   Den   14.0
5.0   Zach LaVine       Min   19.1   Min   14.1
...               
-6.0   Trevor Booker    Uta    7.9   Uta   14.0
-6.0   Luc Mbah a Moute LAC    6.0   Phl   12.0
-6.2   Brandon Bass     LAL   10.7   Bos   16.9
-6.4   Alonzo Gee       NOP    6.3   Por   12.7
-6.5   Roy Hibbert      LAL    9.2   Ind   15.7
-6.7   Tayshaun Prince  Min    4.9   Det   11.5
-6.9   Lou Williams     LAL   16.3   Tor   23.2
-7.0   Ty Lawson        Hou    8.5   Den   15.5
-8.5   George Hill      Ind   13.9   Ind   22.4
-8.7   Paul Pierce      LAC    9.7   Was   18.4


Reb+  Reb/36 adjusted   2016   Reb   2015   Reb
4.2   Thaddeus Young    Brk   10.4   Brk    6.2
2.7   Jared Sullinger   Bos   12.7   Bos   10.0
2.4   Zaza Pachulia     Dal   13.0   Mil   10.6
2.2   Bismack Biyombo   Tor   13.7   Cha   11.5
2.2   Dwight Powell     Dal    9.1   Dal    6.9
2.1   Matt Barnes       Mem    6.9   LAC    4.8
1.8   Tristan Thompson  Cle   12.9   Cle   11.1
1.7   Robert Covington  Phl    7.4   Phl    5.6
1.7   Kevin Love        Cle   12.6   Cle   10.9
1.7   Tobias Harris     Orl    8.4   Orl    6.7
...
-2.1   Timofey Mozgov   Cle    8.4   Cle   10.5
-2.1   Marco Belinelli  Sac    2.0   SAS    4.1
-2.3   Mirza Teletovic  Phx    5.4   Brk    7.7
-2.4   Roy Hibbert      LAL    7.8   Ind   10.1
-2.6   DeMarcus Cousins Sac   11.3   Sac   13.9
-2.8  Richard Jefferson Cle    2.2   Dal    5.0
-2.8   Kris Humphries   Was    8.3   Was   11.2
-3.0   Meyers Leonard   Por    7.0   Por    9.9
-3.0   Noah Vonleh      Por    8.2   Cha   11.2
-4.6   Omer Asik        NOP    9.4   NOP   14.0


Ast+    Ast/36 adj.    2016   Ast   2015  Ast
3.9   Draymond Green    GSW   8.5   GSW   4.5
2.1   Isaiah Thomas     Bos   7.5   Bos   5.4
2.0   Mason Plumlee     Por   3.5   Brk   1.4
1.9   C.J. McCollum     Por   4.2   Por   2.3
1.7   Rajon Rondo       Sac  11.6   Dal   9.9
1.4   Shane Larkin      Brk   5.3   NYK   3.9
1.4   Russell Westbrook Okl  10.2   Okl   8.8
1.4   Jarrett Jack      Brk   6.9   Brk   5.5
1.4   Goran Dragic      Mia   6.2   Mia   4.8
1.3   Matt Dellavedova  Cle   6.6   Cle   5.3
....
-1.8   Ronnie Price     Phx   3.5   LAL   5.3
-1.8   Mo Williams      Cle   5.2   Cha   7.0
-1.8   Joe Ingles       Uta   2.2   Uta   4.0
-1.9   Rudy Gay         Sac   1.9   Sac   3.8
-1.9   Shaun Livingston GSW   4.8   GSW   6.7
-2.0   D.J. Augustin    Okl   4.0   Okl   6.0
-2.0   Jordan Clarkson  LAL   2.4   LAL   4.4
-2.0   Devin Harris     Dal   3.0   Dal   5.1
-2.7   George Hill      Ind   3.5   Ind   6.3
-3.4   Ty Lawson        Hou   5.8   Den   9.2


Stl+    Steals/36       2016   Stl   2015   Stl
.83   Andre Drummond    Det   1.88   Det   1.05
.79   Ricky Rubio       Min   2.77   Min   1.97
.70   Derrick Favors    Uta   1.64   Uta    .95
.69   Robert Covington  Phl   2.46   Phl   1.77
.67   Otto Porter       Was   1.74   Was   1.07
.63   Kyle Lowry        Tor   2.26   Tor   1.63
.60   Evan Fournier     Orl   1.46   Orl    .86
.60   Wayne Ellington   Brk   1.30   LAL    .70
.59   Avery Bradley     Bos   1.80   Bos   1.21
.58   Noah Vonleh       Por   1.10   Cha    .52
....
-.61   Khris Middleton  Mil   1.22   Mil   1.84
-.62   Luc Mbah a Moute LAC    .89   Phl   1.51
-.64   Jabari Parker    Mil    .87   Mil   1.51
-.66   Kris Humphries   Was    .23   Was    .88
-.66   Klay Thompson    GSW    .61   GSW   1.27
-.72   Maurice Harkless Por    .91   Orl   1.63
-.73   JaKarr Sampson   Phl    .43   Phl   1.16
-.76   Al-Farouq Aminu  Por   1.02   Dal   1.77
-.86   Jonas Jerebko    Bos    .42   Bos   1.29
-.90   Tyler Johnson    Mia   1.00   Mia   1.90


3s/G    3 ptrs/G       2016    3s    2015   3s
1.64   C.J. McCollum    Por   2.53   Por    .89
1.61   Jerryd Bayless   Mil   2.09   Mil    .48
1.42   Omri Casspi      Sac   1.94   Sac    .52
1.37   Will Barton      Den   1.76   Den    .40
1.14   Doug McDermott   Chi   1.50   Chi    .36
1.05   DeMarcus Cousins Sac   1.08   Sac    .03
1.03   Al-Farouq Aminu  Por   1.49   Dal    .46
.97   Stephen Curry     GSW   4.55   GSW   3.58
.95   Kent Bazemore     Atl   1.59   Atl    .64
.92   Jae Crowder       Bos   1.67   Bos    .74
....
-.71   Paul Pierce      LAC    .91   Was   1.62
-.71   Devin Harris     Dal    .54   Dal   1.25
-.73   Jeff Green       Mem    .51   Mem   1.24
-.80   Ben McLemore     Sac    .91   Sac   1.71
-.85   Kevin Martin     Min   1.08   Min   1.92
-.85   Randy Foye       Den   1.03   Den   1.88
-.90   Derrick Rose     Chi    .59   Chi   1.49
-.93   Danny Green      SAS   1.43   SAS   2.36
-1.04  Chandler Parsons Dal    .96   Dal   2.00
-1.10   Kyle Korver     Atl   1.84   Atl   2.95

[Mike G]

Overall gainers in eW/484 * minutes

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.88   C.J. McCollum  Por  .538   22.2   3.9   4.2   1.44     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3    .70
1.60   Draymond Green GSW  .555   16.3   9.5   8.5   2.02     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5   1.37
1.48   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .613   27.5   8.3   3.3   2.48     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0   1.85
1.34   Nicolas Batum  Cha  .552   18.0   6.7   5.2   1.37 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3    .78
1.34   Will Barton    Den  .559   19.2   7.2   2.8   1.40     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8    .78

1.20   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .584   16.7   5.6   2.9   1.16     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1    .47
1.18   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .578   13.0  10.3   2.2   1.32     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0    .56
1.13   Gary Harris    Den  .538   13.1   3.2   2.2    .49     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3   -.16
1.06   Reggie Jackson Det  .522   24.6   4.9   7.2   1.85     .505   18.2   5.1   7.2   1.39
1.06   Thaddeus Young Brk  .531   17.9  10.4   1.5   1.44     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4    .98

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.04   Andre Drummond Det  .488   19.8  17.1   1.0   2.20     .494   16.6  15.8    .8   1.80
1.03   Rajon Rondo    Sac  .496   11.9   6.5  11.6   1.51 Dal .444   10.4   6.5   9.9   1.08
1.03 Matt Dellavedova Cle  .551   12.0   3.0   6.6    .84     .489    8.4   3.3   5.3    .25
.96   Jerami Grant    Phl  .499   12.2   6.1   1.4    .75     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7    .26
.96   DeMar DeRozan   Tor  .535   24.9   4.5   4.5   1.72     .499   21.2   5.0   3.7   1.37

.92   Otto Porter     Was  .528   14.0   6.5   2.4    .96     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5    .47
.88   Kyle Lowry      Tor  .554   23.0   5.1   6.8   1.93     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2   1.60
.86   Zach LaVine     Min  .504   19.1   4.5   4.3   1.08     .508   14.1   4.1   4.7    .59
.84   Tony Parker     SAS  .574   20.0   3.5   7.8   1.69     .533   20.0   2.5   6.6   1.26
.84   Evan Fournier   Orl  .561   17.6   3.6   2.7    .96     .538   15.7   3.4   2.2    .59

A new leader, and with a sizable lead at that.

Losers:

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-2.10  George Hill    Ind  .541   13.9   4.1   3.5   .84     .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82
-1.50  Ty Lawson      Hou  .457    8.5   2.5   5.8   .36     .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
-1.28  James Harden   Hou  .569   27.1   5.7   6.0  2.00     .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-1.25  Anthony Davis  NOP  .545   23.0  11.0   1.3  2.01     .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58
-1.11  Joe Johnson    Brk  .441   11.1   4.3   3.4   .42     .518   15.6   5.0   3.6    .89

-1.09  Lou Williams   LAL  .544   16.3   2.9   2.6   .77     .552   23.2   2.7   2.9   1.36
-1.09  Jamal Crawford LAC  .506   16.0   2.2   3.1   .64     .523   21.9   2.6   3.4   1.25
-1.08 Tayshaun Prince Min  .469    4.9   3.4   1.4  -.20     .499   11.5   5.4   2.3    .55
-1.01  Marc Gasol     Mem  .530   18.2   8.2   3.9  1.48     .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89
-.96   Kyle Korver    Atl  .558   11.5   4.2   2.5   .48     .691   16.8   4.6   3.0    .95

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.94   Derrick Rose   Chi  .431   16.5   3.4   5.6   .94     .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
-.93   Roy Hibbert    LAL  .509    9.2   7.8   1.9   .68     .494   15.7  10.1   1.6   1.20
-.91 Shabazz Muhammad Min  .557   15.3   5.1    .6   .57     .545   20.8   6.5   1.6   1.31
-.89   Paul Pierce    LAC  .471    9.7   4.7   1.8   .29     .570   18.4   5.7   2.5   1.09
-.88   Klay Thompson  GSW  .583   23.3   4.1   2.8  1.40     .584   27.1   3.5   3.5   1.83

-.86   Kobe Bryant    LAL  .441   19.3   4.7   3.5  1.08     .469   22.3   6.0   5.1   1.56
-.84   Danny Green    SAS  .480   11.7   5.6   2.6   .68     .590   17.0   5.5   2.5   1.13
-.81   Ersan Ilyasova Det  .530   15.3   6.6   1.5   .92     .548   19.8   7.7   1.4   1.35
-.79   Zach Randolph  Mem  .506   17.2  10.2   1.9  1.29     .529   20.1  12.1   2.5   1.75
-.78   Corey Brewer   Hou  .448   10.4   3.8   2.4   .34     .499   15.6   5.1   3.0    .88