Are there NBA quality players in the D-league?

[ampersand5]

Because of the low salaries offered in the D league, many of the best Americans not in the NBA are playing overseas. While there might be a few young players who might be at an NBA level in the future, do you think there are any current players in the D league who could contribute to a non-tanking NBA team?


Here are the BPM leaders in the D league this year: http://www.basketball-reference.com/dle ... anced.html

[Statman]

Because of the low salaries offered in the D league, many of the best Americans not in the NBA are playing overseas. While there might be a few young players who might be at an NBA level in the future, do you think there are any current players in the D league who could contribute to a non-tanking NBA team?


Here are the BPM leaders in the D league this year: http://www.basketball-reference.com/dle ... anced.html

Probably.

I do have conversions worked out for D league to NBA (normalized, adjusted for pace, blah blah blah) - I think the next few days I'll run conversions on this season's D League stats - maybe run NBA statistical comps as well. I'll obviously post what my results say when done.

[Crow]

I don't put a lot of stock in d league stats but I liked Vince Hunter before and he seems to be doing enough to eventually get a shot and perhaps stick if the situation is favorable. Hadn't heard of Kevin Capers before but now want to learn about him.

[Dr Positivity]

Jeff Ayres/the former Jeff Pendergraph not being picked up surprises me, decent per minute stats at career WS/48 of .133 with quality rebounding and TS%, and had to have learned some things in San Antonio.

[Crow]

I see Capers came out of Division 2. Florida Southern. A page at draftexpress but no written analysis.

[Statman]

OK, I ran the D League player ratings, normalized everything - & ran NBA conversions.

I came up with exactly 30 players, based solely on D League production, who have played 88 or more minutes and translate to be better than NBA replacement level per minute production:

Code: Select all

+-----------------+-----+-----+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+--+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
|     Player      | Tm  | MP  | M/g  | P/g  | Orb/g | Drb/g | R/g  | A/g | S/g | B/g | T/g | PF/g |  TS%  |  | Sco  | 2pt  | 3pt  |  FT  | Reb  |  BH  | Def  | Total |
+-----------------+-----+-----+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+--+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+
| Jarnell Stokes  | SFL | 203 | 29.0 | 18.1 | 3.7   | 5.1   | 8.9  | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3.3  | 0.641 |  | 1.8  | 7.0  | -2.9 | -2.3 | 4.7  | -2.5 | 0.3  | 4.3   |
| Jack Cooley     | IDA | 168 | 28.0 | 14.5 | 5.5   | 6.3   | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.3  | 0.569 |  | -3.3 | 1.9  | -3.9 | -1.4 | 9.1  | -3.2 | 0.2  | 2.7   |
| Terry Rozier    | MAI | 101 | 33.7 | 23.3 | 1.0   | 5.7   | 6.7  | 7.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.7  | 0.565 |  | -1.8 | -1.2 | -1.7 | 1.1  | -1.1 | 5.6  | -0.3 | 2.5   |
| DaJuan Summers  | WES | 117 | 39.0 | 25.3 | 3.3   | 7.0   | 10.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.0  | 0.598 |  | 0.8  | 3.1  | -1.1 | -1.1 | 2.6  | -1.2 | 0.2  | 2.4   |
| Delon Wright    | RAP | 213 | 35.5 | 17.8 | 1.0   | 4.7   | 5.7  | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.2  | 0.633 |  | -1.3 | 1.1  | -1.5 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 4.1  | 0.8  | 2.2   |
| Bryce Cotton    | AUS | 141 | 35.3 | 22.3 | 0.3   | 3.3   | 3.5  | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.8  | 0.774 |  | 4.7  | -3.1 | 7.3  | 0.6  | -3.6 | 1.5  | -0.6 | 2.1   |
| Elliot Williams | SAN | 454 | 41.3 | 29.3 | 0.9   | 6.5   | 7.4  | 6.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2.5  | 0.610 |  | 0.4  | 0.4  | -1.1 | 1.1  | -1.7 | 2.2  | -0.9 | 0.1   |
| Lucas Nogueira  | RAP |  88 | 22.0 | 9.0  | 3.3   | 4.5   | 7.8  | 3.8 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0  | 0.500 |  | -7.8 | -0.3 | -6.6 | -0.9 | 6.2  | 0.4  | 1.2  | 0.0   |
| Michael Dunigan | CAN | 258 | 28.7 | 14.7 | 2.8   | 4.2   | 7.0  | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 3.8  | 0.632 |  | -1.1 | 2.4  | -3.1 | -0.4 | 2.6  | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.2  |
| Lorenzo Brown   | GRR | 397 | 33.1 | 16.6 | 1.5   | 3.9   | 5.4  | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.3  | 0.556 |  | -4.2 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -0.8 | -1.1 | 4.1  | 0.8  | -0.4  |
| Ronald Roberts  | RAP | 203 | 33.8 | 15.3 | 4.8   | 7.8   | 12.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3.3  | 0.579 |  | -3.8 | 1.2  | -2.9 | -2.1 | 6.5  | -2.5 | -0.7 | -0.5  |
| Jimmer Fredette | WES | 257 | 36.7 | 24.4 | 0.3   | 3.9   | 4.1  | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 2.1  | 0.590 |  | 0.7  | -1.9 | 1.4  | 1.2  | -3.0 | 0.4  | 1.4  | -0.5  |
| Malcolm Thomas  | LOS | 242 | 34.6 | 17.7 | 3.7   | 8.3   | 12.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 3.4  | 0.577 |  | -4.1 | -0.3 | -1.8 | -2.1 | 3.2  | 0.2  | 0.1  | -0.6  |
| Walter Tavares  | CAN |  96 | 24.0 | 10.0 | 3.8   | 7.0   | 10.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.3  | 0.714 |  | -2.5 | 0.4  | -2.9 | 0.0  | 7.5  | -6.6 | 0.9  | -0.7  |
| Chris Walker    | RIO | 165 | 23.6 | 15.0 | 3.6   | 4.6   | 8.1  | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.6  | 0.610 |  | -1.5 | 2.7  | -2.9 | -1.3 | 4.2  | -2.8 | -0.5 | -0.7  |
| Micheal Eric    | TEX | 167 | 27.8 | 13.8 | 3.2   | 6.2   | 9.3  | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 4.2  | 0.619 |  | -2.0 | 2.5  | -2.9 | -1.6 | 4.6  | -4.0 | 0.2  | -1.2  |
| Jordan Mickey   | MAI | 389 | 35.4 | 18.7 | 2.1   | 8.9   | 11.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 2.1  | 0.545 |  | -4.5 | -1.2 | -2.3 | -0.9 | 1.9  | -1.9 | 3.2  | -1.3  |
| Allen Durham    | TEX | 199 | 22.1 | 7.4  | 3.6   | 4.2   | 7.8  | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.6  | 0.558 |  | -6.3 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -2.2 | 6.3  | -0.5 | -0.9 | -1.4  |
| Erick Green     | REN | 317 | 39.6 | 30.0 | 0.8   | 4.5   | 5.3  | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0  | 0.670 |  | 2.1  | -0.6 | 2.4  | 0.3  | -3.0 | 0.8  | -1.4 | -1.5  |
| Alex Stepheson  | IOW | 337 | 33.7 | 12.9 | 4.0   | 8.7   | 12.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3.1  | 0.556 |  | -5.3 | 0.4  | -3.1 | -2.6 | 6.5  | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.6  |
| Keith Benson    | SFL | 204 | 20.4 | 11.5 | 2.7   | 4.1   | 6.8  | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.4  | 0.553 |  | -2.9 | 1.4  | -3.2 | -1.1 | 5.4  | -4.1 | -0.3 | -1.9  |
| Henry Sims      | GRR | 304 | 27.6 | 14.6 | 2.9   | 5.8   | 8.7  | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.0  | 0.601 |  | -2.5 | 1.4  | -3.2 | -0.6 | 3.6  | -2.7 | -0.9 | -2.5  |
| Vincent Hunter  | REN | 335 | 33.5 | 20.8 | 5.8   | 6.2   | 12.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.1  | 0.565 |  | -3.7 | 1.0  | -3.1 | -1.7 | 4.4  | -1.8 | -1.4 | -2.6  |
| Tyus Jones      | IDA | 108 | 36.0 | 21.3 | 0.7   | 3.7   | 4.3  | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 2.7  | 0.566 |  | -1.3 | -1.7 | 2.2  | -1.8 | -2.6 | 1.3  | -0.1 | -2.7  |
| Joshua Smith    | RIO | 195 | 19.5 | 9.0  | 2.8   | 2.4   | 5.2  | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.6  | 0.657 |  | -3.4 | 1.3  | -3.1 | -1.6 | 2.6  | -0.6 | -1.3 | -2.7  |
| Sundiata Gaines | REN | 109 | 27.3 | 20.0 | 0.5   | 3.5   | 4.0  | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.5  | 0.588 |  | -0.6 | -3.4 | 3.6  | -0.8 | -2.8 | 0.4  | 0.0  | -3.1  |
| Xavier Munford  | BAK | 374 | 31.2 | 19.2 | 0.4   | 3.2   | 3.6  | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 2.0  | 0.620 |  | 0.2  | -0.3 | 0.7  | -0.3 | -3.0 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -3.5  |
| Dakari Johnson  | OKL | 342 | 31.1 | 11.5 | 3.8   | 5.8   | 9.6  | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.7  | 0.465 |  | -8.6 | -4.0 | -2.9 | -1.7 | 5.1  | 0.1  | -0.1 | -3.5  |
| Sean Kilpatrick | DEL | 402 | 36.5 | 25.9 | 0.9   | 2.7   | 3.6  | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 1.0  | 0.646 |  | 2.4  | -1.8 | 3.9  | 0.3  | -3.1 | -2.1 | -1.0 | -3.8  |
| David Laury     | DEL | 245 | 24.5 | 11.2 | 1.3   | 4.9   | 6.2  | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.9  | 0.580 |  | -4.1 | -3.7 | 1.6  | -1.9 | 0.5  | 0.2  | -0.4 | -3.8  |
+-----------------+-----+-----+------+------+-------+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+-------+--+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+-------+

Those categories on the right are how many points the player would be expected to add to an average NBA lineup per 100 possessions. Jarnel Stokes would be expected to add 4.3 points to an average lineup - based mainly on his extremely solid projected 2pt per minute production (KA Towns/Greg Monroe level) & rebounding (again, around Greg Monroe level).

Since offensive rebounding translates the best from D to NBA (after normalized for pace & league), then steals, then D rebounding, then blocks - productive big men would, theoretically, be able to step to the NBA & have less of that huge per minute drop off than other types of players.

Elliott Williams has been THE star of the D League (of guys that have actually played all season) - he translates to an average NBA player. There is no reason why he shouldn't be playing in the NBA over MANY lesser options.

My past college to NBA projections loved Jarnel Stokes & Delon Wright. Not sure why they aren't getting more run in the NBA. Jarnel's projected production per minute would put him around 60th in the NBA -a Thaddeus Young type expected per minute production.

Now, these minute totals are really small sample sizes to work with - & can give weird outliers (like Jack Cooley being one of the best rebounders in the world not named Andre Drummond). Ideally, If I were going to project current NBA production - I'd use current NBA & D league results - with weighted & projected forward (based on age progression relative to statistical skillsets) to this season: preseason, summer league, & last year international or college or D &/or NBA (whatever pertains).

[Statman]

I don't put a lot of stock in d league stats but I liked Vince Hunter before and he seems to be doing enough to eventually get a shot and perhaps stick if the situation is favorable. Hadn't heard of Kevin Capers before but now want to learn about him.

Only 66 minutes of data - only plays 7.3 minutes a game in the D legaue - but his per minute stats are pretty incredible. That small amount of data - projects to NBA at +4.5 points added, would be at the top of the list I just presented.

THE guy that stands out w/ the small sample size (53 minutes) - Boban Marjanovic. Those 53 minutes translate to the NBA at an incredible +12.7 points added (would be 7th in the NBA if he "qualified" at 167 minutes). Funny thing is - he has played 60 minutes for the Spurs at a even better +14.9, which would be 6th in the NBA. Let's just say in his 113 total minutes between the leagues he has stood out even more than his 7'3" frame would suggest.