Curry and the Warriors' historic season.

[Mike G]

After 10 games, it appears to be shaping up as something special.
So far, 8 of Curry's 10 games -- according to GmSc -- would rank among his 25 best games last year.
Before his 2 weak games, I noticed every other player on the team had shot worse (through 5 or 6 games) than last season.
And in those 2 'bad' outings, the rest of the team stepped up.

Here's how they add up now:

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2014-15   FGA   FTA   Pts   TSA     PPS
Warriors 7137  1709   9016  7889   1.143
Curry    1341   337   1900  1489   1.276
others   5796  1372   7116  6400   1.112
               
2015-16   FGA   FTA   Pts    TSA    PPS
Warriors  882   235   1148   985   1.165
Curry     205    68    333   235   1.418
others    677   167    815   750   1.086

GSW has 21.8 more points this year than they averaged last year on 985 TSA.
Curry has 33.3 additional points from his 235 attempts.
The rest of the team has 19.5 points less.

Right now, only Thompson, Barbosa, and Speights are shooting appreciably worse; and David Lee is gone.
If Curry regresses to his 2015 mere MVP form, the team is still about 1.5 ppg worse than last year, on offense.

[Crow]

For this early partial season, Warriors have an SRS about 30% above the best full season SRS of all-time.
6 of the other 7 above plus 10 on SRS won titles, with the 7th losing the finals to a team 1pt higher on SRS.

They are equal or better than last season on almost every team stat. Exceptions are blocks made and taken and own turnovers. Fouls given could count as negative or positive but with ft rate allowed down and shot defense excellent, I'd count it as a positive in this case.

[Dr Positivity]

VEDS per minute (DBPM variant)

2015-2016 (player, VEDS per minute, total minutes)

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Stephen Curry	1.258	343
Draymond Green	0.77	331
Klay Thompson	0.553	307
Harrison Barnes	0.678	305
Andre Iguodala	0.763	278
Festus Ezeli	0.675	199
Shaun Livingston	0.411	192
Leandro Barbosa	0.479	131
Marreese Speights	0.175	98
Andrew Bogut	0.734	74
James Michael McAdoo	0.276	47
Brandon Rush	0.221	34
Jason Thompson	0.517	32
Ian Clark	1.067	31

2014-2015

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Stephen Curry	0.856	2613
Draymond Green	0.729	2490
Klay Thompson	0.673	2455
Harrison Barnes	0.573	2318
Andre Iguodala	0.567	2069
Andrew Bogut	0.57	1583
Shaun Livingston	0.39	1468
Mareese Speights	0.551	1207
Leandro Barbosa	0.502	982
David Lee	0.559	904
Justin Holiday	0.529	657
Festus Ezeli	0.461	504
Brandon Rush	0.204	271
James Michael McAdoo	0.464	137
Ognjen Kuzmic	0.559	72

.5 is about a league average player, .3 replacement level

Other than Curry going Super Saiyan, compared to last year they rate as getting a lot from Iguodala, Barnes, Ezeli and Bogut in limited minutes is off to a good start. Iguodala and Bogut will likely cool off but Barnes and Ezeli are young so who knows. Klay Thompson's game is off (might be hurt) and Speights somewhat predictably turned into a pumpkin.

Nobody with real minutes had over .90 last year, Anthony Davis was a few hundred thousandths below .9, and Curry was the only other one above .85. Curry is an MVP and a half right now so far this year

[Mike G]

Curry has 8 of the top 84 GameScores of the season (GmSc > 22.4), and 3 of the top 5

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GmSc   player    tm  opp  Min   Pts  Reb  As  St  Bk  TO
49.2  Curry     GSW  NOP   36    53    4   9   4   0   2
40.7  A Davis   NOP  Atl   41    43   10   3   4   3   1
37.6  Harden    Hou  Sac   42    43    6  13   2   0   7
36.6  Curry     GSW  Min   38    46    5   4   2   0   3
34.9  Curry     GSW  NOP   36    40    6   7   2   0   2

33.8  Westbrook Okl  Orl   48    48   11   8   1   1   6
32.9  Drummond  Det  Por   36    29   27   0   2   3   1
32.8  R Jackson Det  Por   34    40    5   5   2   0   2
31.8  Durant    Okl  Orl   54    43   12   2   1   2   2
31.4  Curry     GSW  Den   35    34    7  10   1   2   2

http://bkref.com/tiny/5Vua2
Durant and Drummond have 2 in the top 20.
Durant and LeBron are the only players with half as many (4) GmSc at this level.
[Mere mortals and "MVP candidates" in a normal year.]

Curry has 4 of 10 games with more points than minutes (not counting 34 in 34:39). How would one find the record in that category?
In '87, Jordan did it in 29 of 82 games; a few more times Min = Pts.

[Mike G]

Top Ast/100 poss seasons by players listed at F (F-G, F, F-C)

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forwards   yr   tm   Ast/100  #9+
LeBron    2010   Cle   11.5    7
Bristow   1982   Dal   10.7    2
G Hill    1997   Det   10.7    4
L Walton  2013   Cle   10.1    1
D Green   2016   GSW    9.9    -

Pippen    2002   Por    9.8    2
McGrady   2007   Hou    9.5    1
Bird      1990   Bos    9.3    4
Odom      2002   LAC    9.1    1
R Barry   1979   Hou    9.0    1

Final column is the number of seasons w 9.0 or more Ast/100. F have 23 such seasons since 1978.
Bristow, Walton, Pippen, Bird, and Barry all top out at >30 years old.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ZtUBk

Of players in this group, only Bird and Hill (twice each) and LeBron have had better TReb% than Draymond (13.1). Only Hill was younger at the time.
Only Odom had a higher Blk/100 rate, in a short (29 G) season.

[Crow]

Warriors "death" small lineup is now best lineup used over 50 minutes on offensive efficiency in 16 yrs of BR's database. A handful of close competitors before tonight.

[Mike G]

Players listed as F or F-C, top Ast/100 seasons:

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As/100   forward        yr   tm
10.2   Draymond Green  2016  GSW
10.1   Luke Walton     2013  Cle
9.3    Larry Bird      1990  Bos
9.1    Lamar Odom      2002  LAC
9.0    Rick Barry      1979  Hou

8.8    Boris Diaw      2006  Phx
8.5    Toni Kukoc      1997  Chi
8.1    Sasha Volkov    1992  Atl
8.0    Kevin Garnett   2005  Min
8.0   Detlef Schrempf  1993  Ind

Who remembers Alexander Volkov? He played 2 seasons, 1990 and 92, listed at C both years.
Looking at Ast%, we see players who also score a lot moving up, relative to non-scorers.
Both lists are showing only top season by each player.

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Ast%   forward         yr   tm
31.8   Toni Kukoc     1999  Chi
28.9   Larry Bird     1990  Bos
28.7   Luke Walton    2013  Cle
28.6   Draymond Green 2016  GSW
28.6   Lamar Odom     2002  LAC

27.1   Kevin Garnett  2005  Min
27.0   Blake Griffin  2016  LAC
26.8  Jamal Mashburn  2001  Cha
26.8  Antoine Walker  2001  Bos
26.7   Kevin Durant   2014  OKC

Toni was the go-to guy for Chicago in '99. Career high Usg% and career low TS%.
Bird owns 8 of the top 22 spots.
http://bkref.com/tiny/wurKi

[Mike G]

The b-r.com Playoff Forecast page shows teams' chances of going to and winning the Finals. It's turning into a close race, thanks to the Bucks' outscoring the Warriors by 25 pts over 7 quarters.

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Fin%   SRS     Go     Win    W/G
GSW   11.90   .504   .426   .845
SAS   11.41   .407   .344   .845

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi
That's .845 W% if they Go: Either team has the same high chance of beating whomever comes from the East.
OKC would beat the eastern team 65% likely; but only .065 chance of getting there.

GS now in a dead heat with the '71 Bucks for highest SRS ever.
SA ranks 5th all-time, behind also the '72 Lakers and '96 Bulls.

The Spurs lost their opener, were 3-2, and since then have won 4 to 6 games between losses.
Here's their cumulative ORtg and DRtg, and the ratio of the 2, just before each loss:

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W   L    ORtg   DRtg    O/D
3   1   102.9   92.8   1.109
9   2   107.6   96.2   1.119
14  3   105.6   95.3   1.108
18  4   106.9   94.3   1.134
23  5   109.2   95.1   1.148

The surge has been in the last 10 games. That last entry, of course, may not be "just before a loss".

On that note, the Pacers come to SA next; so it's one of the more likely Finals scenarios.
At one time, sports-talkers said such a Finals would be a "disaster" for the NBA. Do they still talk like that?

[Mike G]

This may be the last day the Warriors are ranked ahead of the Spurs; or it may be the Spurs' closest approach.
Either way, the b-r.com Forecast page is interesting:

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Fin%   SRS     Go     Win    W/G
GSW   11.75   .475   .403   .848
SAS   11.71   .423   .363   .858

The Spurs are less likely to win the West, but a bit more likely to win the Finals if they go there.
Is this just a home court advantage thing?

[Mike G]

Without playing a game, both these teams' SRS ticked upward. Apparently their previous opponents look a bit better today.

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tm    SRS    Pace    ORtg   DRtg     O-D   *pace
GS   11.78   99.7   115.0   101.7   13.3   13.26
SA   11.73   93.9   108.8    94.7   14.1   13.24

Does GS have the better SRS just because they play at a higher pace?
If they are playing one another, they'll play at the same pace. According to ORtg-DRtg, the Spurs are the better team thus far.
Spurs' SOS is 0.11 stronger than GS'.

[Statman]

Does GS have the better SRS just because they play at a higher pace?

Yes.

The biggest "flaw" of SRS is no pace adjustment. Not hating on it though - it's still a quick/easy reference to for judging team quality that I refer too often during a season.

[Nate]

...

The biggest "flaw" of SRS is no pace adjustment. Not hating on it though - it's still a quick/easy reference to for judging team quality that I refer too often during a season.

Don't things also get a bit non-linear when some teams are resting starters are lot?

[Statman]

Don't things also get a bit non-linear when some teams are resting starters are lot?

Yes, that would be a 2nd, albeit not huge imo, "issue" with SRS compared a more complex methodology.

SRS does what it's supposed to do - give us a better next step look at team quality beyond simple point differential. Plus, it's at b-r, so I glance over it often when doing other things b-r related. It's simple, but now familiar.

[EvanZ]

We should probably be using BPI more.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/Bas ... ower-index

[Statman]

We should probably be using BPI more.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/Bas ... ower-index

Honestly, I think SRS gets used so much because we all pull our stats from b-r for about everything. I don't think anyone is using for any serious analysis.