Improved players 2015-16

[Mike G]

Yahoo Sports' (3) Ball Don't Lie bloggers have 3 different midseason picks for MIP:

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. improved      tm   mpg1  mpg2   PER1  PER2    WS1   WS2  BPM1 BPM2    eW1   eW2
Reggie Jackson Det   29.5  31.0   17.2  21.3   .104  .172    .8  4.1   1.39  1.82
Zaza Pachulia  Dal   23.7  29.0   15.6  18.3   .116  .174   1.4  2.7   1.13  1.43
CJ McCollum    Por   15.7  35.3   13.1  17.6   .089  .099   -.7   .5    .70  1.35

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 38067.html

[Mike G]

At 52% of the season, wins added by improvement over last year.

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.87   C.J. McCollum  Por  .525   21.5   3.8   4.4   1.29     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3    .70
1.78   Draymond Green GSW  .557   15.9   9.6   8.9   1.97     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5   1.37
1.52   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .598   13.9  10.4   2.1   1.35     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0    .56
1.49   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .585   17.5   5.3   3.2   1.14     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1    .47
1.44   Gary Harris    Den  .546   13.4   3.4   2.1    .47     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3   -.16

1.37   Will Barton    Den  .546   18.6   7.5   2.8   1.32     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8    .78
1.29   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .606   26.6   8.3   3.1   2.32     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0   1.85
1.19   Allen Crabbe   Por  .569   15.2   3.6   1.6    .64     .522    8.9   3.6   2.0    .14
1.18   Brandon Rush   GSW  .584   11.9   5.8   2.0    .63     .252    2.7   4.9   1.6   -.38
1.15 Matt Dellavedova Cle  .550   11.9   3.3   6.5    .78     .489    8.4   3.3   5.3    .25

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.15   Andre Drummond Det  .486   19.5  17.2    .9   2.19     .494   16.6  15.8    .8   1.80
1.11   Thaddeus Young Brk  .525   17.5  10.3   1.5   1.36     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4    .98
1.08   Otto Porter    Was  .537   14.1   6.3   2.4    .96     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5    .47
1.08   Nicolas Batum  Cha  .538   16.5   6.5   5.7   1.18 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3    .78
1.07   Reggie Jackson Det  .524   24.1   4.7   7.8   1.79     .505   18.2   5.1   7.2   1.39

1.06   Andrew Wiggins Min  .511   21.9   4.1   1.8   1.08     .506   16.3   4.7   1.9    .74
1.02   Jae Crowder    Bos  .572   17.3   5.6   2.2   1.16     .510   13.6   6.2   1.9    .81
1.02   Rajon Rondo    Sac  .490   11.5   6.4  12.2   1.44 Dal .444   10.4   6.5   9.9   1.08
1.00   Jerami Grant   Phl  .497   12.2   6.1   1.5    .71     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7    .26
.98   Marvin Williams Cha  .554   12.5   7.9   1.8    .95     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6    .57

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.93   DeMar DeRozan   Tor  .531   24.7   4.7   4.4   1.66     .499   21.2   5.0   3.7   1.37
.91   Tony Parker     SAS  .570   20.5   3.8   7.8   1.67     .533   20.0   2.5   6.6   1.26
.90   Aaron Gordon    Orl  .553   13.3   8.7   1.9   1.04     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3    .48
.89   Mario Chalmers  Mem  .564   17.9   3.9   5.3   1.16 Mia .511   13.1   3.3   4.6    .60
.85  Derrick Williams NYK  .542   19.3   6.5   1.6   1.19 Sac .529   14.6   5.0   1.2    .59
.85   Kyle Lowry      Tor  .562   22.7   5.3   6.8   1.87     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2   1.60

Leader hasn't changed, but it's gotten closer; a lot more players are within 50% of the top.

Alan Crabbe (Por) has come from nowhere to #8 in just 2 weeks. Breakdown of his last 9 games, before that, and last year:

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Gms    MPG   TS%   Reb%   Ast%  Stl%  Blk%  TO%  ORtg  DRtg
2015   13.4  .525   5.7   8.1   1.4   1.6   8.6   108   105

1-36   25.7  .565   5.4   7.5   1.4   0.4   8.5   108   111
37-45  27.2  .611   6.3   8.3   2.5   0.7   7.8   119   109

Totals:

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year   TS%   Usg%   ORtg  DRtg   PER  WS/48   BPM
2015  .525   11.5   108   105    8.7  .088   -0.3
2016  .574   17.9   112   110   13.2  .100   -1.0

Again, some stats don't agree much.

[rlee]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... ss-why-not

[Mike G]

Stephen Curry is an unconventional Most Improved Player choice, but there's an argument to be made that he's the right one. The Golden State Warriors superstar is significantly better than last season, and that's the biggest reason why his team is 44-4.

The brief writeup does not attempt to substantiate this.
Several of his teammates are also significantly improved. Ignoring the minutes they've played, the top 5 in several summary stats' improvements (yr2-minus-yr1) from last season:

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PER+            WS/48+          BPM+           RPM+
10.9 Rush     .171  Rush      5.9  Rush      6.06  Rush
4.3  Clark    .124 JThompson  2.6  Ezeli     4.52  Ezeli
3.9  Green    .051  Clark     2.5  Curry     2.19  Green
3.9  Curry    .050  Curry     1.5  Green     1.99 JThompson
3.5 JThompson .049  Green     1.4 JThompson  1.53  Curry

Some of these guys don't play very many minutes, and some have done their improving largely in garbage time, perhaps.
Just multiplying these numbers by their minutes -- not attempting to make equivalent Wins or plus-minus -- the top 5's look like this:

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PER+            WS/48+          BPM+           RPM+
6878  Rush     108  Rush      3878  Curry    3824  Rush
6271  Green     79  Green     3723  Rush     3522  Green
6049  Curry     78  Curry     2412  Green    3209  Ezeli
1750  Clark     41 Iguodala   1846  Ezeli    2373  Curry
1540 Iguodala   37 Livingston 1668 Iguodala  1386 Iguodala

Again, no units are assigned to the numbers; they're just for the purpose of ranking players on this team.
It's certainly arguable that Curry isn't even MIP on his own team.

[rlee]

It is an interesting concept that a player of Steph Curry's stature could be the "most improved". whatever that may mean. He is certainly a better player than he was in his MVP season. None of the NBA players, coaches, execs and reporters I've spoken with disputes this. I probably won't vote for him. I think it is somewhat silly to pretend that fringe players should be considered for this award, though. Draymond, on the other hand, has also added significantly to an already strong game.

[Mike G]

For the record, Brandon Rush has not just played garbage minutes. He's started 23 of his 39 games, and his stats are enormously better when he has started.

Meanwhile, Steph Curry has improved every year of his career, in every known stat.

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year    PER   BPM   WS/48   perW   bpmW    xyz   xyz+
2010   16.3   1.0   .077   .114   .119    .104   
2011   19.4   1.9   .128   .148   .137    .138   .034
2012   21.2   3.4   .144   .167   .166    .159   .022
2013   21.3   5.4   .180   .168   .205    .184   .025
2014   24.1   7.4   .225   .198   .244    .222   .038
2015   28.0   9.9   .288   .241   .293    .274   .051
2016   31.9  12.4   .338   .283   .341    .321   .047

I went ahead and created PER- and BPM-wins/48, from homemade conversions. They're averaged with WS/48 to get xyz. And annual xyz improvement is the last column.
While improving to his current level may be more astonishing, last year was arguably even a bigger improvement over the previous season.

Also found one other MVP who then significantly improved in all 3 metrics. He repeated at MVP, didn't win MIP.

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Bird    PER    BPM   WS/48   perW   bpmW   xyz   xyz+
1984   24.2    7.8   .215   .199   .252   .222   
1985   26.5    8.5   .238   .224   .265   .243   .020
                    

[Mike G]

At 69% of the season, McCollum is pulling away.

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
2.51   C.J. McCollum  Por  .536   22.6   3.7   4.5   1.33     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
2.11   Gary Harris    Den  .545   12.9   3.3   2.1    .48     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
1.94  Marvin Williams Cha  .565   14.0   8.2   1.8   1.15     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
1.92   Draymond Green GSW  .571   15.5   9.9   8.9   1.88     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37
1.91   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .595   13.9  10.1   2.1   1.36     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56

1.90   Will Barton    Den  .545   19.1   7.5   2.9   1.35     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
1.80   Aaron Gordon   Orl  .521   12.7   9.9   2.2   1.21     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
1.61   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .549   16.1   6.0   2.9    .99     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47
1.55   Allen Crabbe   Por  .567   15.2   3.6   1.6    .66     .522    8.9   3.6   2.0   .14
1.49   Otto Porter    Was  .547   13.9   6.0   2.0    .96     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5   .47

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.45   Brandon Rush   GSW  .562   10.7   5.7   2.3    .60     .252    2.7   4.9   1.6  -.38
1.44   Jae Crowder    Bos  .569   16.9   5.5   2.2   1.18     .510   13.6   6.2   1.9   .81
1.39   Jerami Grant   Phl  .511   12.2   6.2   1.9    .74     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
1.34   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .612   26.5   7.8   2.9   2.24     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0  1.85
1.32   Andre Drummond Det  .485   18.7  16.3    .9   2.13     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80

1.28   Thaddeus Young Brk  .521   16.5  10.2   1.7   1.31     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4   .98
1.21   DeMar DeRozan  Tor  .533   25.5   4.6   4.5   1.66     .499   21.2   5.0   3.7  1.37
1.19   Mario Chalmers Mem  .559   17.6   4.2   5.6   1.17 Mia .511   13.1   3.3   4.6   .60
1.19   Andrew Wiggins Min  .516   21.5   3.9   1.9   1.04     .506   16.3   4.7   1.9   .74
1.16   Nicolas Batum  Cha  .534   16.0   6.6   5.9   1.12 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78

Bottom of "improved" list:

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eW+      per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484 '15   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-1.67   Derrick Rose   Chi  .469   18.8   3.8   5.2   .94      .487   22.3   3.8   6.3   1.46
-1.69   Gerald Green   Mia  .487   14.4   3.7   1.3   .51  Phx .527   21.7   4.4   2.1   1.15
-1.71   Roy Hibbert    LAL  .499    9.1   7.2   1.8   .60  Ind .494   15.7  10.1   1.6   1.20
-1.72   Kyle Korver    Atl  .565   11.9   3.8   2.6   .46      .691   16.8   4.6   3.0    .95
-1.72   Anthony Davis  NOP  .554   24.6  10.4   1.8  2.11      .579   27.3  10.7   2.1   2.58

-1.72   Marc Gasol     Mem  .519   18.6   7.6   4.0  1.43      .547   21.8   8.8   4.2   1.89
-1.89  Wesley Matthews Dal  .519   13.9   3.1   2.1   .55  Por .580   19.1   3.9   2.5   1.07
-2.22   James Harden   Hou  .579   27.7   6.1   6.7  1.98      .589   30.1   5.6   7.0   2.49
-2.48   Ty Lawson      Hou  .474    8.7   2.6   5.7   .24  Den .516   15.5   3.1   9.2   1.28
-3.68   George Hill    Ind  .542   13.8   4.1   3.6   .78      .570   22.4   5.1   6.3   1.82

[Mike G]

Season at 76%

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
2.69   C.J. McCollum  Por  .536   21.9   3.6   4.5   1.30     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
2.38   Gary Harris    Den  .552   13.2   3.3   2.0    .47     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
2.26  Marvin Williams Cha  .568   14.1   8.4   1.8   1.18     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
2.21   Aaron Gordon   Orl  .538   13.2   9.9   2.2   1.27     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
2.10   Draymond Green GSW  .561   14.6  10.0   8.8   1.87     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37

2.08   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .581   13.2  10.1   2.2   1.31     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56
2.01   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .612   27.0   7.9   3.0   2.37     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0  1.85
1.90   Will Barton    Den  .532   18.3   7.5   2.9   1.29     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
1.89   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .554   16.3   6.2   2.9   1.02     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47
1.62   Jae Crowder    Bos  .567   16.9   5.6   2.2   1.19     .510   13.6   6.2   1.9   .81

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.59   Andre Drummond Det  .485   18.4  16.6   1.0   2.16     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80
1.51   DeMar DeRozan  Tor  .536   25.1   4.6   4.4   1.70     .499   21.2   5.0   3.7  1.37
1.48   Brandon Rush   GSW  .553   10.0   5.8   2.2    .54     .252    2.7   4.9   1.6  -.38
1.48   Allen Crabbe   Por  .559   14.2   3.5   1.7    .58     .522    8.9   3.6   2.0   .14
1.47   Otto Porter    Was  .544   13.6   6.2   2.0    .91     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5   .47

1.44   Jerami Grant   Phl  .505   11.5   6.2   1.9    .69     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
1.43   Mario Chalmers Mem  .559   17.4   4.0   5.6   1.19 Mia .511   13.1   3.3   4.6   .60
1.42   Thaddeus Young Brk  .523   16.2  10.1   1.8   1.31     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4   .98
1.39   Kemba Walker   Cha  .540   22.2   4.4   5.5   1.66     .479   19.1   3.8   5.0  1.35
1.38   Kyle Lowry     Tor  .583   23.1   5.1   6.8   1.90     .519   19.5   5.1   7.2  1.60

That's everyone with 50% of the top improver's gains.

[Mike G]

Here's an update on what other stats say about my top 20+. Curry is thrown in, too.
Last year's rates on the left; this year's minutes and numbers on the right.

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xyz   improved?   tm   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM    min   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM
3.71   G Harris  Den    4.9 -.046  -4.3  -7.0   1864   12.0  .070    .1  -1.5
3.18   Lowry     Tor   19.3  .141   3.6   3.8   2264   23.7  .218   7.7   7.4
2.57   K Walker  Cha   17.6  .101   2.2  -1.0   2200   21.3  .168   4.3   3.0
2.38   A Gordon  Orl   11.4  .060  -2.8  -2.5   1431   17.2  .150   2.0   1.5
2.23   Crowder   Bos   13.9  .113    .6   -.4   2060   16.2  .161   3.1   4.1

2.18   DeRozan   Tor   17.4  .090  -1.6   -.2   2236   21.5  .166   1.0    .7
2.18   Mahinmi   Ind   10.8  .090  -1.2   -.7   1375   16.7  .167   2.8   3.8
1.97   Leonard   SAS   22.0  .204   6.1   7.6   1932   25.8  .282   8.1   9.6
1.92   Rush      GSW    0.8 -.056  -6.0  -7.5    801   10.8  .103   -.9  -2.4
1.70   Curry     GSW   28.0  .288   9.9   9.3   2006   32.4  .330  12.9  10.1

xyz   improved?   tm   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM    min   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM
1.70  M Williams Cha   11.8  .102   1.0    .4   1809   16.0  .152   2.5   3.4
1.42   Chalmers  Mem   11.7  .056  -1.0  -1.2   1231   18.1  .145   1.9   -.8
1.41   Bazemore  Atl    9.7  .057  -1.8  -3.4   1675   13.5  .093    .0   -.7
1.20 Dellavedova Cle    8.5  .067  -2.6   -.6   1453   12.2  .113   -.6   1.2
1.15   J Grant   Phl    8.7  .019  -3.3  -1.3   1617   12.8  .060   -.8  -1.1

1.09   McCollum  Por   13.1  .089   -.7   1.3   2207   17.7  .106    .4   1.7
1.02   Barton    Den   13.6  .063   -.6  -1.3   1840   17.0  .100    .4   -.6
.98    Dra Green GSW   16.4  .163   5.0   6.8   2101   18.7  .181   5.4   8.9
.69    Porter    Was   11.6  .092   -.4   1.2   1682   14.3  .104   1.4   1.4
.55    Crabbe    Por    8.7  .088   -.3  -3.3   1670   12.3  .098   -.7  -2.1

xyz   improved?   tm   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM    min   PER   WS/48  BPM   RPM
.55    Drummond  Det   21.4  .147   -.2    .7   2107   21.8  .141    .0   3.2
.39    T Young   Brk   15.7  .061   -.1   1.2   2087   17.3  .082    .2    .8
-.13   Batum     Cha   13.1  .105   3.1    .4   1876   14.6  .079   1.7   1.6

Improvements in PER, BPM, and RPM are scaled to WS/48; the 4 are averaged, then multiplied by minutes/48.
McCollum doesn't much impress WS, BPM, or RPM.
Gary Harris has gotten huge minutes of late, now leads the team.

[Mike G]

Season at 91%

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eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
3.19   Gary Harris    Den  .557   13.6   3.4   2.1    .53     .391    7.7   3.0   1.3  -.16
2.93  Marvin Williams Cha  .575   14.9   8.2   1.8   1.24     .536   11.0   6.8   1.6   .57
2.84   Aaron Gordon   Orl  .540   13.5   9.7   2.2   1.28     .509   10.7   7.5   1.3   .48
2.63   C.J. McCollum  Por  .535   21.5   3.4   4.5   1.20     .528   16.1   3.1   2.3   .70
2.51   Ian Mahinmi    Ind  .590   13.7   9.7   2.1   1.30     .504    8.5  10.9   1.0   .56

2.40   Draymond Green GSW  .575   14.6   9.8   8.8   1.83     .532   14.1   9.1   4.5  1.37
2.15   Will Barton    Den  .542   18.1   7.6   2.9   1.26     .496   14.0   5.6   2.8   .78
2.04   Nicolas Batum  Cha  .544   16.2   6.4   6.3   1.21 Por .512   10.7   6.2   5.3   .78
1.97   Otto Porter    Was  .556   13.8   6.2   1.9    .93     .517   11.6   5.5   1.5   .47
1.97  Bismack Biyombo Tor  .579    9.3  13.3    .6   1.32 Cha .556    9.5  11.5    .4   .75

eW+     per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 '15: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
1.95   Kent Bazemore  Atl  .543   15.6   6.0   2.9    .95     .512   10.9   5.9   2.1   .47
1.95   Kawhi Leonard  SAS  .613   26.9   7.9   2.9   2.28     .557   21.2   8.4   3.0  1.85
1.86   Andre Drummond Det  .499   18.4  16.7    .9   2.16     .494   16.6  15.8    .8  1.80
1.84   Brandon Rush   GSW  .553    9.9   5.6   2.2    .52     .252    2.7   4.9   1.6  -.38
1.81   DeAndre Jordan LAC  .613   14.6  14.1   1.3   1.95     .615   13.6  15.9    .8  1.60

1.76   Thaddeus Young Brk  .530   16.1  10.2   1.9   1.33     .501   15.6   6.2   2.4   .98
1.71   Allen Crabbe   Por  .565   14.0   3.6   1.7    .57     .522    8.9   3.6   2.0   .14
1.69 Tristan Thompson Cle  .602   11.1  12.2   1.0   1.29     .566   12.3  11.1    .7   .89
1.61   Jerami Grant   Phl  .494   11.6   6.0   2.0    .68     .458   10.1   4.9   1.7   .26
1.54   DeMar DeRozan  Tor  .542   25.1   4.7   4.4   1.65     .499   21.2   5.0   3.7  1.37
1.50   Jae Crowder    Bos  .567   16.7   5.5   2.2   1.16     .510   13.6   6.2   1.9   .81

19 of 20 have improved their shooting%. 18 have higher scoring rate. 15 have boosted rebounding. 17 with better Ast.
11 have improved in all.