Actual vs. "Expected" Lineup Rotation Results
Actual vs. "Expected" Lineup Rotation Results
Actual vs. Expected comparisons have been done for shooting, for wins and probably for point differential and perhaps other things. I don't recall if it has been for the sum of the lineups in a game's rotation. Maybe it has once recently? but it is certainly not common. This might be interesting to do for certain playoff teams. I might do something like this later but if you are interested and want to matchup the data, go ahead. "Expected" at its simplest would be at the average for that lineup for the season, all minutes. Fancier would be mean estimate of confidence interval for the sample size and / or adjusted for opponent lineup quality and perhaps binned for lineup "type". This would seem to a route to a coaching evaluation at game level foe the actual, expected and difference. May be not the definitive or exclusive method but perhaps a useful addition to adhoc subjective evaluations or better than no evaluation.