I have heard some say the Timberwolves coaching job was the best out there. I have heard some say that with Thibs going there it is going to be great and quick. I dunno... Today the potential of it failing relative to expectations seemed pretty high to me. In terms of winning a playoff series anytime soon or going further.
They need outside shooting so badly. Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins... Some say they are set, I am guessing one or two will go eventually. Towns looks very good and headed to great but have centers ever mattered less, especially as the #1 guy? Lots of changes to come. Maybe they make it work. But I don't think they are as well off or close as the optimistic voices say. Will free agents come to Minny with the winters, the grind of Thibs and the young guys lined up to get the shots, praise and the big money? Will Thibs find the right balance between a young core and vet support? Seems easier to miss than hit the right balance.
Playoffs next season? I doubt it. Playoff series win? 2 years anyway or 3-4? At the moment, I'd lean to the latter. Can Thibs improve the offense? Towns will have to match or outdo what a healthy Rose did early and Pau Gasol did later in terms of helping the offense of others. Championship? Can't see any signs of that possibility yet. Maybe there will be enough to consider that future possibility in 3-5 years. Consider the future possibility then. Hope is fine, but it is very early and big success is far from sure.
TWolves' prospects
Re: TWolves' prospects
Is there a long term negative trend in league average center productivity / impact? It felt like it, without deep reflection. But I haven't seen the RPM or other numbers. Maybe perception based on reporting is different than the answer from the metrics.
Re: TWolves' prospects
It is not averages but this season on RPM estimates 15 of the top 40 were listed centers. That is about double representation compared to even proportions. In 2013-14 there were only 9. Fluke or are we actually in an era of greater center importance? In 2013-14 the PFs ruled. In this span PGs declined amongst the RPM leaders by almost half. Some in the media make it sound like this a golden era for good to great PGs though. Wings are underrepresented too. Basically big men (PFs & Cs) held about 2/3rds of the top 40 in each season.
Maybe I was wrong to be somewhat pessimistic about a center lead team. Towns at less than plus one and in 32nd place for centers did well for a rookie but has a climb ahead to be a major difference maker.
Maybe I was wrong to be somewhat pessimistic about a center lead team. Towns at less than plus one and in 32nd place for centers did well for a rookie but has a climb ahead to be a major difference maker.
Re: TWolves' prospects
Thibs' best season was his first with MVP version Derrick Rose. They had the best record against the West. Afterwards, after Rose went out and then wasn't the same, they went slightly under .500 against the west over the next 4 seasons. Is that mostly about the Bulls squads or does it make a troubling case about the Thibs style and system? Can Thibs' defense first win in the west? How will a Thibs-Rubio offense run in the run n gun west? Quite the contrast on PG offensive threat with the first season with Rose.
The only team to make playoffs in west in each of last 3 season without a top 12 offensive efficiency rating was the Griz. Will the Thibs be in the main group, the exception or the also-rans? With Chicago, he finished in top 12 on offense 3 times, with MVP Rose and 2 half seasons of diminished Rose and near the very bottom when he had less. Even with Rose in the better seasons they just barely made the top 12 twice. As much as it is important whether Thibs can make TWolves defense top 15, 10 or 5, he probably needs to keep the offense top 12 too. As President and Coach will he tilt the roster, playing time and coaching emphasis so much to prove his defensive expertise that the Wolves fall back from the 12th ranking they achieved this season?
The only team to make playoffs in west in each of last 3 season without a top 12 offensive efficiency rating was the Griz. Will the Thibs be in the main group, the exception or the also-rans? With Chicago, he finished in top 12 on offense 3 times, with MVP Rose and 2 half seasons of diminished Rose and near the very bottom when he had less. Even with Rose in the better seasons they just barely made the top 12 twice. As much as it is important whether Thibs can make TWolves defense top 15, 10 or 5, he probably needs to keep the offense top 12 too. As President and Coach will he tilt the roster, playing time and coaching emphasis so much to prove his defensive expertise that the Wolves fall back from the 12th ranking they achieved this season?
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Dr Positivity
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Re: TWolves' prospects
KAT is a superstar in the making and Rubio an excellent RPM player so the Wolves are off to a good start, the worrying part is Wiggins and LaVine are showing more signs of being the next Gay and Monta respectively more than real productive players. A trade of Wiggins for former Thibs star Jimmy Butler could be an excellent chess move if they were fading Wiggins, but I doubt MIN takes any offers for him
Re: TWolves' prospects
BPM estimates Rubio has been neutral impact on defense for 2 years. RPM disagrees. It can be hard to "trust" any metric a lot but I don't really trust or use BPM much, especially on defense and with how assist making at the extremes (and maybe in general) affects estimates. We don't have Rubio in the NBA playoffs but we have him in euro league and Olympics. How is he overall in big games? Eventually what will his playoff Ron estimate be? We aren't going to get that for awhile, if ever but we need that.
I also distrust the non-using roll up metric critic set a lot. Lets not aggregate discrete stats quantitatively and consistently. Let's not do it at all or do it freestyle? Nah, that ain't better. Neither may be solid or as solid as desired but dissing one metrics and then freelancing is not a very strong position. Too much latitude. And too much on the one hand, on the other hand and on the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th hand and I don't have to decide hand. If you are great at subjective rollup, do it for everybody and publish it instead of selective and in passing and changing ratings or even just comments short of any attempt at overall and clearly graduated ratings while dissing metric ratings in specific cases and in general. Fair fight or it isn't.
How good are Rubio and Wiggins? Now and in future? What say the one metric deniers? Are / will they be more right or wrong than specific metrics or metric-blenders? Never had a one metric denier win the team win projection contest, I don't believe. I am thinking of a one metric denier and I don't think I have ever seen any win projections from him or any clear-cut and complete player ratings either. Just partial data this and partial data that and critique the flaws or absurdity of the one metrics. I am not at the moment sure where I'd rate Rubio and Wiggins now and future but I'd use RPM as a main building block. Perhaps PT-PM or that & more. On that subject, is there full-season PT-PM published? For this season and last? I don't see it. Early Feb. rtgs found but nothing since. PT-PM liked Rubio then but less than RPM on its own. Can't see Wiggins at the moment. Google docs don't like to show their full selves on my phone.
I also distrust the non-using roll up metric critic set a lot. Lets not aggregate discrete stats quantitatively and consistently. Let's not do it at all or do it freestyle? Nah, that ain't better. Neither may be solid or as solid as desired but dissing one metrics and then freelancing is not a very strong position. Too much latitude. And too much on the one hand, on the other hand and on the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th hand and I don't have to decide hand. If you are great at subjective rollup, do it for everybody and publish it instead of selective and in passing and changing ratings or even just comments short of any attempt at overall and clearly graduated ratings while dissing metric ratings in specific cases and in general. Fair fight or it isn't.
How good are Rubio and Wiggins? Now and in future? What say the one metric deniers? Are / will they be more right or wrong than specific metrics or metric-blenders? Never had a one metric denier win the team win projection contest, I don't believe. I am thinking of a one metric denier and I don't think I have ever seen any win projections from him or any clear-cut and complete player ratings either. Just partial data this and partial data that and critique the flaws or absurdity of the one metrics. I am not at the moment sure where I'd rate Rubio and Wiggins now and future but I'd use RPM as a main building block. Perhaps PT-PM or that & more. On that subject, is there full-season PT-PM published? For this season and last? I don't see it. Early Feb. rtgs found but nothing since. PT-PM liked Rubio then but less than RPM on its own. Can't see Wiggins at the moment. Google docs don't like to show their full selves on my phone.
Re: TWolves' prospects
Does RPM overrate Rubio in comparison to LaVine and others there previously? A reasonable doubt, requiring further consideration to judge. The final answer may go beyond the one metrics but I think using one metrics is part of the path to that final call.
Re: TWolves' prospects
Thanks. I rarely check twitter any more, including last night when this posted. Maybe I should still occasionally.
Re: TWolves' prospects
Rubio's box score efficiency appears to be about 15% less against above .500 tams vs. those below. That is probably more than average. Shooting percentages and assists both down. Would be nice to know RPM splits for this (and other criteria). Given 6th weakest record against top 16 and general logic, Rubio's RPM is probably lower against good teams. I would be leary of him being the #2 on RPM
because of the still weak efg%. Wiggins is #2 on scoring but not on RPM. His -1.4 estimate is slightly above average and as such decent for a 2nd round player. But more will be needed in year 3 and beyond.
because of the still weak efg%. Wiggins is #2 on scoring but not on RPM. His -1.4 estimate is slightly above average and as such decent for a 2nd round player. But more will be needed in year 3 and beyond.
Re: TWolves' prospects
Rubio-Wiggins-Towns combined on RPM are a very modest positive couple. Either they and / or their supporting cast only need to add 6-12 pts, net to contend. Thibs equals ? 2, 3, 5? How much from more / better analytics? The rest of task... plausible but work...