Keys for Cleveland

[Kathoro]

1. Kevin Love must restrict his offense to catch-and-shoot threes
In order to prove this point, which I have been making for about an entire year now, determine the points per possession the Cavs score on possessions which end with less than or equal to 16 seconds on the shot clock as a function of the quantity of dribbles Kevin Love performs. The shot clock restriction will eliminate fast break situations and consequently isolate the half court offense of the Cavaliers. The posting up of Love is a horrendous strategy for the Cavaliers. Even in possessions that ended badly for the Cavaliers, contained an attempt to post up Love, and in which traditional statistics would not blame the Love post-up as causing the possession to end badly for the Cavaliers, the attempt to post up Love is the primary reason the possession ended badly for the Cavaliers. The results of my statistical experiment should thoroughly prove this. Due to me having more talent for basketball analytics than any human being in the history of the universe, I do not even need to run the experiment to know that the results would prove my intuition to be correct. Love often struggles to create an easy entry pass to himself in the post, causing the man trying to enter him the basketball to waste precious time off the shot clock. Many times, the entry pass leads to a turnover due to Love struggling to get position and doing a poor job handling the pass. Another experiment that would prove me correct is to examine the turnovers per entry pass to love in the post. Another problem with the Love post-ups is that he often wastes tons of time on the shot clock making zero progress and then makes a worthless pass to someone else in a bad position. Yet another problem is that his post-ups just do not lead to him scoring effectively when he does get a shot up. One additional problem with the post-ups is that it takes away from other offensive options that are better for the Cavaliers. Lastly, Love posting up means he is not spacing the floor and opening up driving lanes for Kyrie and James. I could come up with countless ingenious statistical experiments to run that would prove all of these statements correct. Love is best utilized in the half-court offense of the Cavaliers as a catch-and-shoot three-point shooter. He needs to understand this and embrace this role for the Cavaliers to maximize their potential. Unfortunately, the ego of Love will probably cause him to refuse accepting to embrace this role.

2. The Cavaliers must attempt to transfer every defensive rebound into an immediate full-court drive from Lebron to start the resulting offensive possession.
This is absolute death for the opposing team. One experiment that would prove me correct here is to look at the Cavaliers points per possession on possessions that began with a defensive rebound and a drive attempt by Lebron within the first eight seconds of the shot clock. Even when these do not result in Lebron getting points for himself inside the paint, they often result in drive and kicks to wide open three point shooters. The key for Lebron is for him to build forward momentum behind the half-court line and transfer this forward momentum into the driving attempt. This is the most effective way for Lebron to use his stature and athleticism. His acceleration from a standing dribble in the half-court offense is not extremely deadly to a defense, but when he translates forward momentum that he has built behind the half-court line into a full-speed drive, he is absolute death to the defense. Once Lebron comes to a stop after taking the ball up the court and without attempting a drive, the entire possession is degraded to a lower state for the Cavaliers offense.

3. The Cavaliers must shift from Lebron isolations to Kyrie isolations in the half-court offense
This is the same argument I was making last season, and once again, the numbers are proving me to be correct. And once again, the Cavaliers are featuring more Lebron isolations than Kyrie isolations. Lebron has scored at a rate of 0.68 points per possession on 44 isolations in the playoffs, whereas Kyrie has scored at 0.94 points per possession on 31 isolations. For the regular season, the numbers are 0.85 PPP for Lebron on 354 isolations and 0.95 PPP for Kyrie on 153 isolations, and this has been a down year for Kyrie. This has been a massive problem for the Cavaliers for two straight seasons now. The numbers have proven my genius intuition to be correct time and time again. I am a master of pattern recognition. Remind yourselves that these perspectives are coming from a mind with a certified IQ of approximately 160.

I could drone on and on and diagnose every single problem with the strategies the Cavaliers are employing, but I am too lazy to continue, so I will just stop after having listed the three biggest problems. They won't listen to me anyway, just like they didn't listen to me last season. The ineptitude of their organization will continue to be on full display moving forward, simultaneously highlighting the truth and wisdom of my insights. I will watch with amusement as a plethora of Love post-ups, Lebron isolations, lack of Kyrie isolations, and lack of Lebron full-court drives destroy the Cavalier offense in the NBA finals. The way in which the ineptitude of the Cavaliers will validate the staggering magnitude of my intelligence will be a comforting consolation prize.

[bchaikin]

cav are 8-0 so far in these playoffs. must be doing something right...

[Mike G]

They have a staggering high 3fg% of .462, while their 2fg% is just .460.
The list of successful teams whose playoff 3fg% is above .400, and whose 2fg% is < .050 higher is staggeringly short:

Code: Select all

team  yr    W  L   2fg%   3fg%
Dal  1986   5  5   .487   .517
Bos  2011   5  4   .465   .465
Cle  2016   8  0   .460   .462
SAS  1996   5  5   .475   .453
LAL  1992   1  3   .430   .450
Uta  1995   2  3   .493   .449
Mia  1992   0  3   .453   .447
Uta  1986   1  3   .483   .444
Ind  1992   0  3   .459   .444
Chi  1987   0  3   .436   .438
GSW  1987   4  6   .474   .431
LAC  1993   2  3   .424   .429
Uta  1996  10  8   .469   .428
Sea  2000   2  3   .440   .427
Cle  1994   0  3   .433   .421
Cle  1995   1  3   .408   .417
Sea  1995   1  3   .444   .417
Den  1989   0  3   .458   .410
Uta  1987   2  3   .459   .406
Was  2015   6  4   .441   .403

That's 20 teams who have hit .400+ from the arc and less than .050 better inside the arc.
It looks as if 13 were out in the first round, 5 died in the 2nd round; the Jazz in 1996 and these Cavs have staggered to the conference finals.

[Kathoro]

So are you in favor of drastically reducing the offensive efficiency of the Cavaliers in exchange for helping them avoid qualifying for your arbitrary category that doesn't adjust for defense, the increasing volume of three point shots taken in the modern NBA, or the unique blend of players constituting the roster of the Cavaliers?

4. The primary ball screens that should be set for Irving are from Love in pick and pop action.
This is the best screen action for the Cavaliers in the half court offense. Although this has been a down year for Irving in the regular season, Irving traditionally has shot three pointers off the dribble extremely well. When defenders go under the screen here, Irving will have chances to shoot wide open threes off the dribble. When defenders trap Irving, he should have a simple pass to Love for an open catch-and-shoot three. James should be utilized as a cutter from the opposite wing that the screen from Love is designed to allow Irving to drive to. This will create a plethora of easy finishes for James in the paint in situations in which Irving takes the screen and is able to get a good drive going. Irving is not sufficiently proficient in pick and roll action to justify using a player who cannot shoot from outside to set a ball screen for Irving. He does not understand how to synchronize his drives with a rolling big man in order to create a good passing lane and easy finish for the roller. The pick and rolls with Irving and a player who cannot shoot from outside result far too often in Irving driving into a crowded lane, putting up wild shots with a low probability of entering the basket, and smashing his body into the ground. Another problem with Irving in pick and rolls with a player who cannot shoot from outside is that Irving often wastes tons of time off the shot clock in these situations without making any notable progress breaking down the defense. The current rate at which the Cavaliers are performing pick and pops with Irving as the ball-handler, Love as the pop man, and James as a backside cutter should be drastically increased. This option should be the primary mechanism by which the Cavaliers derive ultra-efficient offense in their half-court sets. Due to my masterful pattern recognition capabilities having caused any sound statistical vetting of any of my profound insights to be thoroughly validated, I will not need to list any statistics supporting my profound insights articulated in this post. Any mortal who soundly examined the efficiency of Irving and Love pick and pops, the efficiency of pick and rolls featuring Irving as the ball-handler and a player who cannot shoot effectively from outside as the roller, and the quantity of time Irving wastes on the shot clock making zero progress breaking down the defense in pick and rolls would once again learn that I am the most brilliant observer of basketball in the history of mankind.

[Jon Nichols]

1. Kevin Love must restrict his offense to catch-and-shoot threes
In order to prove this point, which I have been making for about an entire year now, determine the points per possession the Cavs score on possessions which end with less than or equal to 16 seconds on the shot clock as a function of the quantity of dribbles Kevin Love performs. The shot clock restriction will eliminate fast break situations and consequently isolate the half court offense of the Cavaliers. The posting up of Love is a horrendous strategy for the Cavaliers. Even in possessions that ended badly for the Cavaliers, contained an attempt to post up Love, and in which traditional statistics would not blame the Love post-up as causing the possession to end badly for the Cavaliers, the attempt to post up Love is the primary reason the possession ended badly for the Cavaliers. The results of my statistical experiment should thoroughly prove this. Due to me having more talent for basketball analytics than any human being in the history of the universe, I do not even need to run the experiment to know that the results would prove my intuition to be correct. Love often struggles to create an easy entry pass to himself in the post, causing the man trying to enter him the basketball to waste precious time off the shot clock. Many times, the entry pass leads to a turnover due to Love struggling to get position and doing a poor job handling the pass. Another experiment that would prove me correct is to examine the turnovers per entry pass to love in the post. Another problem with the Love post-ups is that he often wastes tons of time on the shot clock making zero progress and then makes a worthless pass to someone else in a bad position. Yet another problem is that his post-ups just do not lead to him scoring effectively when he does get a shot up. One additional problem with the post-ups is that it takes away from other offensive options that are better for the Cavaliers. Lastly, Love posting up means he is not spacing the floor and opening up driving lanes for Kyrie and James. I could come up with countless ingenious statistical experiments to run that would prove all of these statements correct. Love is best utilized in the half-court offense of the Cavaliers as a catch-and-shoot three-point shooter. He needs to understand this and embrace this role for the Cavaliers to maximize their potential. Unfortunately, the ego of Love will probably cause him to refuse accepting to embrace this role.

2. The Cavaliers must attempt to transfer every defensive rebound into an immediate full-court drive from Lebron to start the resulting offensive possession.
This is absolute death for the opposing team. One experiment that would prove me correct here is to look at the Cavaliers points per possession on possessions that began with a defensive rebound and a drive attempt by Lebron within the first eight seconds of the shot clock. Even when these do not result in Lebron getting points for himself inside the paint, they often result in drive and kicks to wide open three point shooters. The key for Lebron is for him to build forward momentum behind the half-court line and transfer this forward momentum into the driving attempt. This is the most effective way for Lebron to use his stature and athleticism. His acceleration from a standing dribble in the half-court offense is not extremely deadly to a defense, but when he translates forward momentum that he has built behind the half-court line into a full-speed drive, he is absolute death to the defense. Once Lebron comes to a stop after taking the ball up the court and without attempting a drive, the entire possession is degraded to a lower state for the Cavaliers offense.

3. The Cavaliers must shift from Lebron isolations to Kyrie isolations in the half-court offense
This is the same argument I was making last season, and once again, the numbers are proving me to be correct. And once again, the Cavaliers are featuring more Lebron isolations than Kyrie isolations. Lebron has scored at a rate of 0.68 points per possession on 44 isolations in the playoffs, whereas Kyrie has scored at 0.94 points per possession on 31 isolations. For the regular season, the numbers are 0.85 PPP for Lebron on 354 isolations and 0.95 PPP for Kyrie on 153 isolations, and this has been a down year for Kyrie. This has been a massive problem for the Cavaliers for two straight seasons now. The numbers have proven my genius intuition to be correct time and time again. I am a master of pattern recognition. Remind yourselves that these perspectives are coming from a mind with a certified IQ of approximately 160.

I could drone on and on and diagnose every single problem with the strategies the Cavaliers are employing, but I am too lazy to continue, so I will just stop after having listed the three biggest problems. They won't listen to me anyway, just like they didn't listen to me last season. The ineptitude of their organization will continue to be on full display moving forward, simultaneously highlighting the truth and wisdom of my insights. I will watch with amusement as a plethora of Love post-ups, Lebron isolations, lack of Kyrie isolations, and lack of Lebron full-court drives destroy the Cavalier offense in the NBA finals. The way in which the ineptitude of the Cavaliers will validate the staggering magnitude of my intelligence will be a comforting consolation prize.

Thank you for the suggestions!

[Rd11490]

So are you in favor of drastically reducing the offensive efficiency of the Cavaliers in exchange for helping them avoid qualifying for your arbitrary category that doesn't adjust for defense, the increasing volume of three point shots taken in the modern NBA, or the unique blend of players constituting the roster of the Cavaliers?

Do you think that the cavs can continue to hit 3s (especially contested 3s) at their current rate?

[Kathoro]

They can, but the probability is slim. However, the Cavaliers would be able to increase their rate of open looks from three, cut down on the contested threes they are taking, and chop out inefficient components of their offense if they followed my advice.

[Kathoro]

5. The Cavaliers must post JAMES instead of LOVE in the half-court.

Love is operating at a putrid 0.70 pts/poss on his first 54 post-ups in the playoffs. James is operating at 1.13 on his first 24 post-ups. For the regular season, the numbers are 0.98 pts/poss for love on 310 post-ups and 0.89 pts/poss on 197 post-ups for James. With a shallow analysis, we might trick ourselves into believing that Love is the superior post-up option for the Cavaliers. However, we must always dig deeper and analyze each situation from as many angles as possible. The pts/poss numbers for Love and James do not include the assists that Love and James are generating out of the post. Any statistical research into this factor would easily show that James creates tons of shots for his teammates out of the post, whereas Love generates almost zero. When the Cavaliers spread the floor with shooters and have James in the post, they are deadly in the half-court. An additional benefit to having James in the post and Love behind the three point line instead of the other way around is an improvement to the transition defense. Love, who is not as fast as James, has an easier task getting back on defense when he begins behind the three point line. Also, James is extremely fast, so he can much more easily get back on defense from inside the paint than Love can. This improvement to the transition defense would be vital for slowing down the fast breaks of the Thunder if the Thunder advance.

There are certain post defenders, such as Jimmy Butler and Iguadala, that can embarrass James in the post. I was begging Cleveland not to post James against these two defenders last season in the playoffs, but they did not listen. Since the Thunder are the most likely opponent for the Cavaliers in the finals, the posting of James in the half-court is an important and valid option. With some adjustments to the way James posts, however, the posting of James in the half court could also be effective against Iguodala if the Warriors advance. Last season in the playoffs, Lebron chucked up a ridiculous quantity of tough midrange jumpers out of the post against Butler and Iguodala. The most effective strategy for James in the post is for him to attack the paint hard with the idea of scoring while simultaneously believing that the defense will converge on him in the paint and open up wide-open threes for his teammates. If James would do this consistently, the posting of James could even be extremely effective against elite post defenders. The additional benefit of the improvement to the transition defense will also always be present.

The posting of James in the half-court also allows Irving to function in a comfortable role. The less Irving has to think, the better he plays. The more complex of an equation you give him, the worse he plays. With James in the post in the half-court offense, Irving can stand behind the three point line and wait for the pass. When he receives a pass from James, he will immediately be in an isolation situation, which is something he is one of the best players in the league in. Not only this, but the defender responsible for Irving will often be recovering to Irving and thus be out of position. This will allow Irving to maximize his talents and minimize his flaws. No complex pick and rolls which inspire him to dribble out the entire shot clock, force up a shot against sixteen centers in the paint, and smash his fragile body into the ground. Just catch the pass from James and shoot if open, or immediately attack the defender in isolation off the dribble. This is a simple equation that Irving is a master of.

[Kathoro]

6. The Cavaliers MUST avoid playing the Love-Thompson combination.

This combination simply lacks adequate rim protection and pick&roll defense. When Love is on the court as a 4, he must be paired with Frye or Mozgov, and when Thompson is on the court as a 4, he must be paired with Frye. James can slide down to the 4 and play alongside either Frye, Love, Thompson, or Mozgov. It is the Love-Thompson combination that must be avoided at all costs.

[Kathoro]

7. The most-used lineup for the Cavaliers must be Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Frye.

Due primarily to being incredibly quick at all five positions and capable of shooting spot-up three pointers at all four positions around James, this is the optimum lineup for the Cavaliers. Both James and Frye have incredible lateral movement for their sizes when they are engaged defensively. This 4-5 combination should solve the massive problems the Cavaliers are having defending the pick and roll while still having good length and verticality inside. The team speed of this lineup should also help slow the Warriors in transition and accentuate the transition offense of the Cavaliers. James is especially good at driving and kicking and transition, and having 4 shooters around him in these situations will help him be even more effective in transition. The posting of James also becomes much more effective with this lineup due to the shooting coming from the 4 players surrounding James. As I have noted before, posting James and spacing the floor with 4 shooters also helps to slow the Warriors in transition due to the geometry of the offense when shots are released. The Cavaliers are still very likely to lose this series to GSW if they continue avoiding this lineup. Now is the time to have the bravery to make the correct lineup change.

[sideshowbob]

7. The most-used lineup for the Cavaliers must be Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Frye.

Due primarily to being incredibly quick at all five positions and capable of shooting spot-up three pointers at all four positions around James, this is the optimum lineup for the Cavaliers. Both James and Frye have incredible lateral movement for their sizes when they are engaged defensively. This 4-5 combination should solve the massive problems the Cavaliers are having defending the pick and roll while still having good length and verticality inside. The team speed of this lineup should also help slow the Warriors in transition and accentuate the transition offense of the Cavaliers. James is especially good at driving and kicking and transition, and having 4 shooters around him in these situations will help him be even more effective in transition. The posting of James also becomes much more effective with this lineup due to the shooting coming from the 4 players surrounding James. As I have noted before, posting James and spacing the floor with 4 shooters also helps to slow the Warriors in transition due to the geometry of the offense when shots are released. The Cavaliers are still very likely to lose this series to GSW if they continue avoiding this lineup. Now is the time to have the bravery to make the correct lineup change.

Unfortunately Lue has been allergic to this lineup and Delly-Smith-Shump-James-Frye in the Finals. Actually he's just avoided playing Channing altogether.

[Mike G]

Thru 3 games, the Cavs are +4 when Tristan Thompson is on the floor (82 min.), -22 when he sits (62 min.), a difference of about 19 pts/48 min.

Other numbers concur that he's an indispensable player:

Code: Select all

. Finals 3Gm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
LeBron James   115   25.2   .120   9.8   2.28
J.R. Smith     108   10.1   .086   3.0    .09
Kyrie Irving   107   18.3   .086   1.4   1.35
Tr. Thompson    82   22.0   .220   1.8   1.30
Ri. Jefferson   72   17.4   .178   3.2    .77

Kevin Love      58    9.0  -.072  -5.6    .67
Iman Shumpert   54    1.0  -.072  -6.0   -.61
Ma. Dellavedova 36    4.9  -.081  -9.4   -.07
Channing Frye   24    2.1   .064  -6.3   -.44
Timofey Mozgov  21    8.1  -.025  -4.3    .41

He's an inside threat, without which perimeter shooting is a lot less effective. And of course, only one guy can take the shot.
With TT on the floor, the Dubs can't optimize their smaller quicker lineups; he'd get all the rebounds.

[Kathoro]

Only one guy can take the shot, but when 4 shooters are surrounding Lebron, the player who shoots the shot usually has a cleaner look than he otherwise would have. And a three game sample size is quite small for using +/- numbers. Love probably had a massive net +/- per 48 minutes over the first two games of the finals. Tristan definitely played a good game 3 though.

If Tristan is going to play, then Love cannot be out there with him. The optimum lineup with Tristan would be Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Thompson. Irving-Smith-James-Thompson-Frye is another effective option. The optimum lineup with Love would be Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Love. Irving-Smith-James-Love-Frye is another effective option.

I still believe the overall optimum lineup is Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Frye.

[Mike G]

Some of your "shooters" don't seem to shoot much, or very well, or both -- nor seem to prosper vs this opponent.
While each shooter might make a slightly better % by 'spreading the floor' -- and this assumes the opponent does not respond to match up as well -- the dropoff in rebounding would be disastrous. Rebounds are keeping the Cavs in these games.

Sometimes a smaller sample, that is specific to an opponent, is better than a bigger, undifferentiated sample. Players who struggle in one series may suddenly prosper in the next one, or vise versa.

[Kathoro]

Shumpert is the only one of the 4 shooters I listed that could be considered a poor shooter. He's still very capable of hitting open catch-and-shoot threes, and his defense is a huge positive. Tristan is obviously entirely useless as a shooter. Moving Lebron to the 4 places him closer to the rim on defense and allows him to be more of a rebounding force. James can put up massive rebounding numbers when he plays closer to the basket. Obviously, the offensive rebounds would likely slip without Tristan on the court. However, this effect can at least be somewhat be offset by the shooting of Frye and the ability of Frye to help more in transition defense due to playing behind the three point line on offense.

Maybe Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Thompson, Irving-Smith-James-Thompson-Frye, or Irving-Shumpert-James-Thompson-Frye is indeed superior to Irving-Smith-Shumpert-James-Frye due to the rebounding impact of Thompson. The most important factor is that the Love-Thompson combination must be avoided.