Gaining the advantage with the NBA's forgotten play

[watto84]

Hi All,

Latest post is up where I look into a forgotten and unloved possession in today's NBA and how teams can take advantage of it.

Check it out out www.zigzaganalytics.com

[Crow]

Team with end of first quarter lead wins 60 plus %...

How often does the favored to win game team lead after one quarter?
How often does game winner win 1st tip?
If you ran a multi-variable regression, how important would being the favored team be relative to winning first tip or first quarter or being the home team or anything else?

[watto84]

1 stat i can add is, the team who wins the opening tip and scored on the play has a 61% chance of winning the 1st qtr.

If the team makes a 3 off the jump ball they have a 70% of winning the 1st qtr.

[Mike G]

Something screwy happened with that % of possessions won from initial jump ball chart.

The league avg is shown as 44.8%, implying nobody gains the 1st poss 1/10 of the time.

[watto84]

hmmm i see what you are saying.....in any given game, a team is going to win the jump ball which means 50% of the time a league team will win the jump.

The league average as i have calculated it, is an average of all of the other team averages in the table.

Should have either re-labeled the "league average field" or just not have included it to save the confusion.

The team numbers themselves are still correct.