Inferred playoff RPM?

[Crow]

One could take RPM estimates from end of regular season and thru end of playoffs (JE says later dated releases include playoff activity), minutes weight the values and derive an inferred RPM estimate for just the playoff minutes. I understand there could be objections to the technique but in lieu of producing a playoffs only RPM estimate, it is one way to go. I might do later. Average errors would be high but it might identify cases worthy of further study by other means.

Or one could choose to not to contemplate the potential clue about playoff impact.

[Crow]

Looking for inferred RPM by this method (everyone might not like it but I wanted to check a few):

LBJ regular season +7.3 RPM, inferred playoff RPM using data from a few days ago +12.1
(assuming all change in currently reported RPM is due to the playoff data, not re-evaluation of the regular season value. this method might make the playoff value move more than it should if the re-evaluation of regular season was considered "proper")

Draymond regular season +7.0 RPM, inferred playoff RPM +9.9

Harden and Isiah Thomas barely changed. Westbrook changed up dramatically but the small sample and the extraordinary raw on /off for him and Christon in playoffs causes me to not want to use this value. Kyrie up from about +2 in regular season to about +3. Jimmy Butler +7 in regular season, inferred at +1.2 for playoffs, with complicating issues or not.

[Mike G]

Interesting. Do you have team RPM?
BPM in playoffs tend to be greater than zero on avg. I wonder how they compare to inferred RPM.

[Crow]

I don't have that right now; but if I do more with the data, it is possible.

[DSMok1]

Interesting. Do you have team RPM?
BPM in playoffs tend to be greater than zero on avg. I wonder how they compare to inferred RPM.

That is because BPM calculates team strength based on the regular season BPMs. So rather than all teams summing to 0, the regular season BPMs of the actual players who play in the playoffs are summed up to estimate each team's theoretical strength. That is then used to develop the playoff "efficiency differential" for each team, based on their actual point differential and their opponents' theoretical strength.

[shadow]

I used the statsnba package to create playoff matchup files and EvanZ's guide to generate playoff RAPM from those files.

This is vanilla RAPM with a zero prior and doesn't include anything fancy (off/def splits, up by X affect, etc.). The range of the ratings is obviously a bit smaller than what you'd normally see in regular season RAPM due to the limited sample size, which keeps everyone closer to 0.

Ratings can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ng/pubhtml

LeBron finishes #1. GSW with 4 of the top 7 players.

statsnba - https://github.com/ethanluoyc/statsnba- ... r/statsnba
RAPM Guide - http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/EvanZ/ ... eb14f28d58

[Crow]

Great.

Wall #143
Hayward #179
Butler #205

Conventional hype... plenty of misses.

[JoshEngleman]

Interesting to see Butler so low. Per Mike G's stats, Butler led the Bulls in eWins for the series.

[Mike G]

Thanks for noticing. Yet Butler's on-off numbers were pretty weak in 4 of 6 games.
In some blowouts, Bulls mop-up players did well against their Celtics counterparts. Butler therefore looks bad by comparision.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
When you don't account for garbage time, and it's a small sample besides, it may be that RAPM is just not very meaningful.

Butler led the Bulls in Pts, Reb, Ast, and Stl; 1st or 2nd in WS and VORP.

[shadow]

Here's 16-17 RAPM for regular season and reg+playoffs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... gw/pubhtml

Butler finished 10th in the regular season and 17th when including playoffs.

[Crow]

Butler's raw plus minus was -7, third worst on team. It may be that his raw production (mostly offensive) was just not that "meaningful" when you add in shot defense and various impacts on teammates. Given the raw plus minus, the RAPM value seems quite plausible. It seems implausible that he was great and still the team plus minus with him on court was THAT pathetic. Theoretically possible but not compellingly plausible. Winshares / 48 and BPM had hin as barely above average player in playoffs... like RAPM and my inferred RPM.

[JoshEngleman]

Thanks for noticing. Yet Butler's on-off numbers were pretty weak in 4 of 6 games.
In some blowouts, Bulls mop-up players did well against their Celtics counterparts. Butler therefore looks bad by comparision.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
When you don't account for garbage time, and it's a small sample besides, it may be that RAPM is just not very meaningful.

Butler led the Bulls in Pts, Reb, Ast, and Stl; 1st or 2nd in WS and VORP.

You're in Asheville. I notice your stuff by default.

[Jinxed]

Here's 16-17 RAPM for regular season and reg+playoffs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... gw/pubhtml

Butler finished 10th in the regular season and 17th when including playoffs.

Thanks Shadow. Do you plan on doing a prior informed version as well?

[shadow]

I corrected an error in my code, Butler is now 12th and 18th in regular season and reg+playoffs respectively.

There were about 20 games the statsnba package couldn't process due to issues with the play by play. So until I figure out how to fix those issues I probably won't be posting any more ratings.

[Mike G]

Using Crow's suggestions -- RS RPM from knarsu table, RS+PS from espn -- here are biggest gainers in RPM due to their playoffs:

Code: Select all

RPM+   w playoffs     tm   min   RPM
1.10  LeBron James   Cle   744   8.42
.94   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   429   7.08
.73   Draymond Green GSW   593   7.14
.72  Markieff Morris Was   373   1.86
.68   Boris Diaw     Uta   203  -3.08

.66   Otto Porter    Was   428   3.56
.64   Deron Williams Cle   262   -.22
.62   Kevin Love     Cle   578   5.03
.57   Terry Rozier   Bos   277  -1.06
.55   Taj Gibson     OkC   118    .26
.55   George Hill    Uta   281   3.75

So LeBron was at 7.32 at season's end; leapt to 8.42 with playoffs.
Boris dragged his up from -3.76

Biggest losers:

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RPM+    w playoffs      tm   min    RPM
-.92   Kelly Oubre     Was   184   -2.43
-.73 Patrick Patterson Tor   185    2.31
-.69   Al Horford      Bos   610    1.82
-.66   Jerami Grant    OkC   111   -4.71
-.64   Channing Frye   Cle   154    1.04

-.63   Tyler Zeller    Bos    78   -2.30
-.61   Avery Bradley   Bos   645   -2.16
-.56   JJ Redick       LAC   206    -.38
-.49   Andrew Harrison Mem   119   -1.58
-.48   Nikola Mirotic  Chi   162    2.23

Median for 213 playoff participants is -.02

Inferred playoff RPM leaders, 99+ minutes:

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PO     RPM inferred    tm     RS   +PO
12.6  LeBron James     Cle   7.3   8.4
12.5  Kawhi Leonard    SAS   6.1   7.1
10.6 Russell Westbrook OkC   6.0   6.3
10.2  Draymond Green   GSW   6.4   7.1
9.9   Blake Griffin    LAC   3.5   3.8

9.5   Taj Gibson       OkC   -.3    .3
8.8   Stephen Curry    GSW   7.1   7.4
8.1   Mike Conley      Mem   4.1   4.5
7.6   Myles Turner     Ind   2.4   2.7
7.6   Otto Porter Jr.  Was   2.9   3.6

7.1   Kyle Lowry       Tor   5.7   5.9
7.1   Kevin Love       Cle   4.4   5.0
6.8   George Hill      Uta   3.2   3.8
6.7   Chris Paul       LAC   8.1   7.9
6.4   Markieff Morris  Was   1.1   1.9

6.2   Kevin Durant     GSW   5.6   5.7
5.9   Nene Hilario     Hou   1.8   2.3
5.8   Steven Adams     OkC   1.1   1.4
5.4   Joe Ingles       Uta   2.1   2.6
4.9   James Harden     Hou   4.8   4.8

And the worst with 99+ min.

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poRPM   inferred       tm      RS    +PO
-13.8  Jerami Grant    OkC   -4.1   -4.7
-10.5  Kelly Oubre     Was   -1.5   -2.4
-7.6   Andrew Harrison Mem   -1.1   -1.6
-6.9  Bojan Bogdanovic Was   -3.5   -3.9
-6.8   Noah Vonleh     Por   -2.7   -3.0

-6.4   JJ Redick       LAC     .2    -.4
-5.7   Paul Zipser     Chi   -3.2   -3.6
-5.1   Jaylen Brown    Bos   -3.1   -3.4
-4.8   Channing Frye   Cle    1.7    1.0
-4.5   Dennis Schroder Atl   -2.3   -2.5

A few more with 50-99 minutes:

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poRPM   inferred       tm      RS    +PO
-7.1   Matt Barnes     GSW   -1.1   -1.3
-6.6   Kevin Seraphin  Ind   -3.7   -4.0
-6.5   Tyler Zeller    Bos   -1.7   -2.3
-5.9   Isaiah Canaan   Chi   -3.8   -4.1
-5.8   Alex Abrines    OkC   -1.8   -2.1

These guys take the brunt of the star players' tendency to step up.