Improvement of 2015-16 rookies in 2016-17

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Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Improvement of 2015-16 rookies in 2016-17

Post by Mike G »

Ranked by avg of 5 summary metrics' estimated wins added, over and above last year's rates, in this year's minutes.

Code: Select all

xW+    2016-17 rates    tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   RPM      PER   WS/48   BPM  e484   RPM
.63   Terry Rozier     Bos   380   12.7   .083  -1.1    .59   -.8       5.0  -.047  -6.6   .15  -5.3
.60   Myles Turner     Ind   567   20.0   .152   1.5   1.57   1.7      15.4   .109  -2.3  1.19  -3.4
.43   Larry Nance Jr.  LAL   441   17.5   .155   2.7    .98   1.7      13.4   .083  -1.4   .67   -.3
.40   D'Angelo Russell LAL   348   17.4   .064   1.3   1.37    .2      13.2   .001  -1.8   .65  -3.7
.30 Kristaps Porzingis NYK   716   19.8   .150   1.7   1.57   2.2      17.7   .102    .1  1.46   2.5

.26   Tyus Jones       Min   202   16.3   .142    .2    .76   -.4      11.2   .027  -3.7   .40  -3.6
.19   Kevon Looney     GSW   153   18.8   .233   3.1   1.25    .0      18.6   .192  -9.5   .90  -2.2
.18   Devin Booker     Phx   660   13.4   .028  -3.3    .79  -1.4      11.9   .043  -3.1   .58  -4.6
.18   Emmanuel Mudiay  Den   646    9.6  -.021  -3.3    .72  -2.1       9.9  -.049  -4.3   .68  -3.8
.17   Rashad Vaughn    Mil   134   10.6   .052  -3.2    .38  -2.1       4.2  -.036  -6.1  -.18  -5.8

xW+    2016-17 rates    tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   RPM      PER   WS/48   BPM  e484   RPM
.15   Richaun Holmes   Phl   298   17.8   .120   1.3   1.02   -.5      15.9   .103   -.9   .72  -1.8
.14   Norman Powell    Tor   241   15.5   .158   1.0    .97    .8      13.3   .105   -.4   .78   -.9
.12   Kelly Oubre      Was   295    9.8   .063  -3.4    .33  -2.1       8.2   .031  -5.8   .38  -3.5
.10   Trey Lyles       Uta   522   12.9   .072   -.9    .85  -2.0      11.6   .079  -2.8   .79  -2.4
.10   Anthony Brown    NOP   125    8.7   .041  -2.2    .13  -1.8       4.9  -.024  -5.0  -.15  -3.7

.10 Karl-Anthony Towns Min   733   22.8   .159   2.9   2.04   1.1      22.5   .151   2.8  1.87    .8
.08   Stanley Johnson  Det   264    8.9   .064   -.4    .30  -1.6       8.7   .018  -2.6   .52  -2.7
.08   Bobby Portis     Chi   208   14.3   .127   -.9    .66  -2.5      13.8   .066  -3.3   .95  -3.8
.03   Jerian Grant     Chi   198    8.7   .046  -3.1    .48  -1.1      11.2   .030  -3.4   .46  -3.7
.03   Nemanja Bjelica  Min   355   12.6   .073   -.6    .77   1.0      11.2   .087    .3   .58    .1

xW+    2016-17 rates    tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   RPM      PER   WS/48   BPM  e484   RPM
.03   Montrezl Harrell Hou   164   17.3   .096  -1.8   1.01  -1.7      14.6   .118  -1.9   .54   -.9
.00   Jahlil Okafor    Phl   420   15.2   .045  -3.5    .92  -3.6      17.1   .037  -4.1  1.16  -5.3
.00   Frank Kaminsky   Cha   501   12.7   .060  -1.2    .93   -.3      12.5   .093  -1.2   .78  -1.4
-.02  Jonathon Simmons SAS   419   11.2   .077   -.5    .49    .3      11.9   .119  -1.0   .63  -2.8
-.05  Willie Reed      Brk   169   15.3   .150  -1.3    .58  -1.0      19.2   .134  -1.6  1.09   -.4

-.08  Salah Mejri      Dal   174   13.3   .129    .2    .81   -.6      16.8   .156   1.1  1.03    .2
-.08  Darrun Hilliard  Det   143    7.1   .018  -4.0    .04  -3.0      10.7   .066  -3.6   .39  -2.2
-.11  Justise Winslow  Mia   323    8.6  -.008  -2.5    .58  -1.8       8.4   .054   -.6   .37   -.9
-.14  W. Cauley-Stein  Sac   202   12.7   .084  -2.7    .49  -2.2      15.3   .130    .7   .93  -1.9
-.15  T.J. McConnell   Phl   403   11.6   .055  -3.3    .37  -2.0      14.5   .058  -2.1   .71  -1.5

xW+    2016-17 rates    tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   RPM      PER   WS/48   BPM  e484   RPM
-.15  Josh Richardson  Mia   365   10.6   .048  -1.1    .62  -1.5      11.4   .109    .6   .44    .1
-.16  Justin Anderson  Dal   401   12.0   .033  -2.2    .69  -3.4      12.3   .083  -1.2   .63  -1.0
-.18  Jordan McRae     Cle   116    4.9  -.065  -8.8    .14  -3.6      14.2   .087  -4.3   .64  -2.3
-.26  Mario Hezonja    Orl   157    2.2  -.147 -10.1   -.03  -4.0       9.4   .029  -2.8   .25  -3.2
-.41  Jarell Martin    Mem   327    6.6   .012  -8.8    .41  -3.5      14.0   .100  -3.2   .79  -2.1

-.42  Nikola Jokic     Den   423   16.7   .143   3.0   1.23   1.4      21.5   .185   4.8  1.77   6.0
-.47 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk  412    9.5   .018  -3.1    .50  -2.5      14.2   .094   1.2   .96    .5
These (37) 2nd-year players have all played at least 100 minutes this season.
eW/484 rates are a couple of days old.

Total rates for the 37, last year and this year:

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. yr    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484   RPM
2016   13.5   .075   -1.68   .82  -1.66
2017   13.8   .078   -1.10   .87   -.82
Actually, the 2016 line is last year's rates * this year's minutes.
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Crow
Posts: 10624
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: Improvement of 2015-16 rookies in 2016-17

Post by Crow »

6 of the top 20 draft picks at or above .100 on ws/48. 2 are positive on BPM. Only a couple positive on RPM. Got to wait longer generally for even league average performance. Most won't make it.
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