Rookies 2016-17

[Mike G]

Ranked by eWins projected over the full season.

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e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.5   Joel Embiid      Phl   22  .585   30.6  11.8   1.7    .7   7.2  3.8  2.12
3.2   Dario Saric      Phl   27  .489   13.6   8.1   2.3    .8   2.9   .3   .71
2.2   Pascal Siakam    Tor   19  .563   12.2   8.3    .5   1.0   1.2  1.0   .71
2.2   Malcolm Delaney  Atl   17  .446   11.1   4.1   8.5    .7   2.8   .0   .76
1.9   Domantas Sabonis Okl   22  .535   12.1   5.5   2.4    .6   1.9   .6   .50

1.8   Buddy Hield      NOP   19  .457   14.8   4.4   2.0    .8   1.8   .2   .57
1.8   Malcolm Brogdon  Mil   20  .459   11.3   4.2   4.2   1.7   2.1   .1   .54
1.8   Jaylen Brown     Bos   17  .529   14.5   4.4   1.6   1.6   1.7   .9   .64
1.7   Kris Dunn        Min   20  .397    6.5   5.6   6.0   2.3   2.3   .4   .50
1.2   Andrew Harrison  Mem   24  .455    9.5   3.2   4.5   1.8   2.4   .3   .32

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Jonathan Gibson  Dal   26  .638   28.6   6.6   3.5   2.0   6.7   .0  1.58
1.1  Willy Hernangomez NYK   10  .526   14.2  10.8   1.0   1.4   3.9  1.4   .87
1.1   Juan Hernangomez Den   12  .685   11.0   8.8   1.4    .6   1.4   .5   .67
1.1   Brandon Ingram   LAL   22  .473    9.4   5.0   2.2    .9   1.5   .7   .29
1.0   Jamal Murray     Den   20  .444   11.3   3.6   3.5    .9   2.5   .1   .30

1.0   Tomas Satoransky Was   19  .488    8.8   3.5   4.9   1.0   2.0   .0   .30
0.9   Jakob Poeltl     Tor   17  .500    7.8   9.4    .6   1.0    .8  1.1   .50
0.9   Mind. Kuzminskas NYK    9  .541   15.0   5.7   1.4   1.5   1.2   .0   .78
0.9   Tyler Ulis       Phx   12  .468   10.5   2.8   6.1   5.3   1.7   .4   .93
0.8   Marquese Chriss  Phx   15  .465   11.8   7.4   1.3   1.0   4.0  1.0   .33

e82    per36 rates     tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.8   Jake Layman      Por    9  .644   19.5   2.7   2.4   1.5   1.6   .5   .99
0.8   Rodney McGruder  Mia   18  .520   10.0   3.8   1.3   1.2    .5   .3   .27
0.7   Deyonta Davis    Mem    7  .579   12.2   9.2    .0   1.0   1.0  1.4   .80
0.6  Sheldon McClellan Was   13  .525   14.5   2.3   1.3   1.8    .5   .0   .54
0.6   Yogi Ferrell     Brk   18  .561   13.1   2.7   5.4    .4   3.4   .4   .44

At 15% of the season, rookies total about 43 projected eWins for the season, at current rates and minutes.
East 25 - 18 West.

[Mike G]

The Nuggets' rookie Jamal Murray appears at #15 in the above list, with eW/484 = .30
A week later, he ranks #2 in projected eWins, e484 = .77

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Gms     mpg  TS%   TRb%  Ast%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%   ORt  DRt  GmSc
1-12   20.0  .448   5.2  15.5   0.4  15.3   15.3    88  111   3.4
13-16  28.5  .660   8.6  16.8   2.2   8.5   26.1   125  112  16.2

He's gotten 21.3 ppg these last 4 games, after averaging 7.0 thru 12.

The only players to avg 1+ 3-pointer and 2+ blocks for a full season are Raef LaFrentz in 2002 and Serge Ibaka in 2015.
Joel Embiid is averaging 1.1 3FG and 2.4 Blk thru 11 games.

[Mike G]

At .215 into the season, rookies have slipped to 40 eWins projected for the year.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.3   Joel Embiid     Phl   23  .578   30.7  11.7   2.2    .8   6.8  3.6  2.06
2.7   Jamal Murray    Den   22  .527   16.0   4.4   3.2    .7   2.2   .4   .72
2.3   Dario Saric     Phl   25  .456   12.1   7.9   2.6    .6   3.0   .4   .53
2.1   Pascal Siakam   Tor   19  .558   11.4   7.8    .6   1.1   1.1  1.1   .65
2.0   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   20  .496   12.2   3.8   4.0   1.5   2.0   .1   .58

1.8  Domantas Sabonis OkC   22  .538   11.7   5.7   2.4   1.0   2.1   .4   .48
1.7   Malcolm Delaney Atl   17  .476   12.0   3.7   6.4    .9   2.9   .1   .60
1.3 Willy Hernangomez NYK   14  .598   13.9   9.9   1.6   1.0   4.2  1.0   .70
1.3   Andrew Harrison Mem   26  .418    7.9   3.2   4.6   1.7   2.1   .6   .31
1.2   Kris Dunn       Min   18  .391    5.8   5.0   5.0   2.6   2.3   .6   .41

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Jaylen Brown    Bos   15  .492   12.4   4.7   1.6   1.4   1.8   .8   .49
1.1   Brandon Ingram  LAL   25  .460    9.4   5.2   2.3    .9   1.9   .6   .27
1.1   Buddy Hield     NOP   17  .435   12.9   4.1   2.0    .6   1.6   .3   .38
1.0  Juan Hernangomez Den   12  .586   10.6   7.6   1.2   1.2   1.2  1.0   .65
1.0   Rodney McGruder Mia   22  .548   11.0   4.4   1.2   1.0   1.5   .4   .28

1.0   Marquese Chriss Phx   15  .473   12.5   6.6   1.2   1.2   3.4  1.3   .38
1.0   Jonathan Gibson Dal   19  .583   21.0   3.6   3.2   1.2   4.2   .0   .84
0.8  Mind. Kuzminskas NYK   11  .500   11.4   4.6   2.4   1.5    .8   .0   .54
0.8   T Waller-Prince Atl   11  .583   12.8   6.6   2.1    .9   2.3   .9   .62
0.7   Troy Williams   Mem   13  .538   14.1   3.1   1.8   1.5   1.8   .4   .50

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.7   Jakob Poeltl    Tor   15  .500    7.9   9.7    .5   1.0   1.0  1.0   .51
0.7  Tomas Satoransky Was   18  .450    7.6   3.7   4.7   1.2   2.0   .0   .22
0.6   Deyonta Davis   Mem    8  .571   10.7   8.4    .3    .3   1.2  2.4   .62
0.6   Jake Layman     Por    7  .609   15.9   3.5   2.2   1.9   1.2   .4   .81
0.5   Davis Bertans   SAS   11  .616   11.5   3.7   1.0    .2    .9  1.8   .34

[Mike G]

Now at .315 of the season, rookies are as unpromising as ever; projecting to just 36 eWins on the season.

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e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.0   Joel Embiid   Phl   24  .554   28.5  11.7   2.8   1.0   5.9  4.3  2.34
2.6   Dario Saric   Phl   24  .491   13.8   8.6   2.4    .7   3.0   .4   .64
2.1   Jamal Murray  Den   22  .497   14.7   4.7   3.4    .7   2.5   .4   .55
2.0   W Hernangomez NYK   14  .584   14.9  12.0   2.1   1.1   3.5  1.4  1.08
1.8   Pascal Siakam Tor   19  .543   12.2   7.9   1.1   1.2   1.4  1.3   .57

1.8   Buddy Hield   NOP   18  .471   15.1   4.5   2.3    .5   1.6   .3   .57
1.7 Malcolm Brogdon Mil   21  .515   12.6   3.6   4.8   1.5   2.1   .1   .49
1.4 Marquese Chriss Phx   17  .499   14.8   7.2   1.0   1.2   2.6  1.2   .49
1.3  Doman. Sabonis OkC   21  .536   11.7   6.2   2.4   1.1   2.1   .7   .36
1.0   Jaylen Brown  Bos   14  .532   13.7   4.8   1.6   1.1   1.9   .9   .41

e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.9   J Hernangomez  Den   12  .558   10.6   7.9   1.5   1.2   1.0   .9   .55
.8  Malcolm Delaney Atl   16  .463   11.5   3.9   6.1    .8   3.2   .1   .29
.8  Jonathan Gibson Dal   16  .484   16.7   3.4   3.7   1.2   3.3   .0   .54
.7   M Kuzminskas   NYK   11  .500   13.1   4.2   2.4   1.4   1.6   .3   .45
.7   Troy Williams  Mem   19  .475   12.4   4.2   1.8   2.1   2.4   .9   .28

.7   Kay Felder     Cle   10  .489   15.0   4.8   7.4    .6   2.9   .3   .88
.7  Andrew Harrison Mem   27  .413    9.4   3.3   4.9   1.7   2.3   .8   .15
.6  T Waller-Prince Atl   10  .516   12.4   7.4   2.3    .8   2.3  1.0   .51
.6   D Finney-Smith Dal   21  .527    9.8   5.0   1.6    .9   1.0   .6   .17
.6   Kris Dunn      Min   18  .455    8.1   4.8   5.3   2.2   2.7   .5   .19

e82   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.5   Deyonta Davis  Mem    8  .582   11.4   9.2    .4    .2   1.7  2.9   .51
.5   Davis Bertans  SAS   11  .590   11.4   4.2   1.7    .4    .9  1.6   .31
.5  Rodney McGruder Mia   25  .486    9.1   5.1   1.8   1.1   1.2   .5   .11
.4   Brandon Ingram LAL   27  .438    9.3   5.1   2.3    .7   1.9   .6   .09
.4   Tyler Ulis     Phx   10  .462   10.8   2.3   5.9   3.7   2.8   .2   .41

[Mike G]

How weak is this year's rookie crop?
In the past 20 NBA seasons, there have been just about 100 rookies who got 1000 minutes and either :
>15.0 PER
>0 BPM
> .100 WS/48
So, about 5 per year (of each) would be the norm; a bit more in a full 82-game season.

If a rookie this year has 300 minutes now, he's on pace to hit 1000 by year's end. So how many above-avg rookies are there, by any of the above measures?

300+ minutes so far
PER: Embiid 21.6 (next: Siakam 12.5)
BPM: Embiid 1.7, Siakam 0.0 (McGruder -0.2)
WS/48: none (Siakam .096, Brogdon .067)

200-299 min.
PER: W Hernangomez 17.0
BPM: Bertans 1.1
WS/48: J Hernangomez .115, Bertans .113

A player with 250 minutes is only getting ~10 per game.
Without 3rd-year rookie Embiid, it's especially grim.
No American-born rookie is above avg in anything (in 200+ min). Only McGruder is even close, in BPM.

[Mike G]

After a monster game, Joel Embiid now has the 9th highest rookie PER of all time, 20+ mpg.

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PER   rookie     yr   WS/48 
22.9  Felix     1954  .155
24.4  Pettit    1955  .194
23.6  Baylor    1959  .165
28.0  Wilt      1960  .245
25.9  Oscar     1961  .210
26.3  Bellamy   1962  .233
22.5  Kareem    1970  .187

PER   rookie     yr   WS/48  BPM
22.8  Cummings  1983  .164   3.5
25.8  Jordan    1985  .213   8.2
26.3  Robinson  1990  .241   6.5
22.9  Shaq      1993  .163   3.7
24.7  Sabonis   1996  .233   5.6
22.6  Duncan    1998  .192   5.5
22.5  Towns     2016  .151   2.8
23.5  Embiid    2017  .094   2.9

Yesterday, his numbers were 21.6, .064, 1.7

He had a Game Score of 30.3 last night. How great was this in the last 20 years of Sixers ball? Others who have hit 30 GmSc since 1997-98:
73 times: Iverson
3: Webber
2: Coleman, Holiday, T Young
1: Brand, MCW, Iguodala, Lou Williams, Andre Miller, Covington, James Anderson, and Embiid
http://bkref.com/tiny/oP5n8

[Dr Positivity]

Looks like Willy Hernangomez is emerging as a non Embiid bright spot in this rookie class, although not 2016 draft again

[Mike G]

Still looking at 36 eWins for the year, at 37% of the season.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.5   Joel Embiid     Phl   24  .560   28.7  11.2   2.5   1.0   5.5  3.7  2.27
2.3 Willy Hernangomez NYK   14  .605   15.9  11.6   2.0    .9   3.0  1.3  1.16
2.3   Dario Saric     Phl   24  .477   12.8   8.5   2.3    .7   2.8   .3   .56
2.2   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   22  .540   13.1   3.6   5.1   1.6   2.2   .1   .59
1.9   Pascal Siakam   Tor   19  .556   12.1   7.7   1.1   1.1   1.6  1.7   .59

1.8   Jamal Murray    Den   22  .493   13.6   4.8   3.2    .7   2.2   .5   .49
1.5   Buddy Hield     NOP   19  .472   14.5   4.4   2.3    .5   1.7   .2   .48
1.5  Domantas Sabonis OkC   21  .541   12.2   6.3   2.3   1.1   2.1   .7   .43
1.4   Troy Daniels    Mem   21  .522   18.0   2.4   1.4    .7   1.2   .2   .61
1.4   Marquese Chriss Phx   17  .489   14.2   7.6   1.1   1.1   2.7  1.0   .48

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.8  Juan Hernangomez Den   11  .560   10.9   7.8   1.4   1.1   1.0   .8   .58
0.8   Andrew Harrison Mem   26  .418    9.4   3.3   5.0   1.5   2.3   .7   .18
0.7   Jaylen Brown    Bos   14  .494   12.5   4.7   1.4   1.0   1.6   .8   .31
0.7   Kay Felder      Cle   10  .491   15.5   4.3   7.2    .8   2.7   .5   .95
0.7   M. Kuzminskas   NYK   11  .510   12.6   4.1   2.6   1.4   1.4   .4   .45

0.7   Jonathan Gibson Dal   14  .484   16.4   3.5   3.6   1.2   3.1   .0   .53
0.7   Kris Dunn       Min   17  .447    8.4   4.9   4.9   2.1   2.7   .7   .23
0.6   Cheick Diallo   NOP   13  .574   17.3  10.7    .8    .9    .9   .9  1.39
0.5   Malcolm Delaney Atl   16  .459   10.9   3.5   5.5    .8   3.0   .1   .19
0.5   D. Finney-Smith Dal   23  .518    9.3   5.1   1.5   1.0   1.1   .6   .13

[Mike G]

At 42% thru the season, no sign of a surge; looking at 35 eWins for the year.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.6   Joel Embiid     Phl   25  .562   29.5  11.2   2.6   5.4   1.2   5.8  3.7  2.28
2.6   Dario Saric     Phl   24  .483   13.1   8.8   2.4   2.8    .7   2.7   .3   .65
2.5   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   23  .545   13.0   3.8   5.4   2.7   1.5   2.2   .1   .63
2.1   Buddy Hield     NOP   20  .504   16.0   4.5   2.2   2.2    .5   1.7   .2   .62
1.8 Willy Hernangomez NYK   14  .585   14.2  11.2   1.9   3.7    .8   3.1  1.2   .93

1.6   Pascal Siakam   Tor   18  .535   11.2   7.9   1.0   4.9   1.1   1.5  1.8   .52
1.5   Jamal Murray    Den   21  .488   12.8   4.7   3.1   2.6    .8   2.1   .5   .44
1.4  Domantas Sabonis OkC   21  .518   11.3   6.5   2.3   4.4   1.0   2.0   .9   .39
1.4   Marquese Chriss Phx   17  .487   14.4   7.2   1.0   6.3   1.1   2.8  1.1   .48
1.1   Andrew Harrison Mem   27  .431    9.7   3.4   5.0   4.6   1.4   2.1   .7   .26

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.0   Kay Felder      Cle   12  .528   17.4   3.6   5.9   3.4   1.1   2.0   .5  1.07
0.8   Kris Dunn       Min   17  .450    8.1   4.9   5.0   4.2   2.1   2.5   .8   .29
0.8   M. Kuzminskas   NYK   11  .538   13.8   3.9   2.3   3.3   1.3   1.4   .4   .49
0.7   Jaylen Brown    Bos   13  .503   12.0   4.7   1.5   3.6    .9   1.4   .8   .31
0.6  Juan Hernangomez Den   11  .560   10.6   7.6   1.4   2.9   1.1   1.0   .8   .53

0.6   Jonathan Gibson Dal   14  .484   15.9   3.4   3.6   3.1   1.2   3.1   .0   .50
0.5   Cheick Diallo   NOP   13  .574   17.2  10.6    .8   2.6    .9    .9   .9  1.33
0.5   Alex Abrines    OkC   14  .534   14.2   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.5   .3   .26
0.4   Troy Williams   Mem   17  .472   11.6   4.0   1.7   3.7   2.1   2.4   .8   .21
0.4   D. Finney-Smith Dal   23  .523    8.9   4.9   1.5   2.8    .9   1.1   .5   .10

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.4   Malcolm Delaney Atl   17  .444   10.0   3.5   5.5   3.1    .8   3.2   .1   .14
0.4  T. Waller-Prince Atl   10  .493   10.8   6.8   2.3   3.5    .8   2.2  1.0   .38
0.4   Tyler Ulis      Phx    9  .468   11.4   2.4   5.0   2.9   2.9   2.7   .2   .38
0.3   Deyonta Davis   Mem    8  .582   10.8   8.8    .4   5.9    .2   1.6  2.4   .43
0.3   Rodney McGruder Mia   26  .495    8.3   4.9   1.9   2.7   1.0   1.1   .4   .08

0.3   Thon Maker      Mil    4  .652   19.8  11.0    .0   4.7    .0   1.2  1.8  1.13
0.3   Jakob Poeltl    Tor   11  .460    7.8   9.7    .9   6.9   1.2    .8  1.0   .35
0.3  Nicolas Brussino Dal    7  .481    7.7   5.8   3.7   2.7   1.5   1.6   .8   .32
0.3 Sheldon McClellan Was   14  .530   12.4   2.5   2.0   2.1   1.2    .5   .2   .34
0.3   Brandon Ingram  LAL   27  .422    8.2   5.3   2.4   2.6    .5   1.7   .5   .06

[Mike G]

Rookies now project to total 41 eWins this season, at the 52% mark.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
7.1   Joel Embiid     Phl   25  .566   28.7  11.5   2.6   1.2   5.5  3.5  2.29
3.5   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   25  .544   12.6   4.2   5.6   1.5   2.2   .2   .84
2.7   Dario Saric     Phl   24  .489   12.6   8.7   2.2    .8   2.9   .4   .65
2.1   Buddy Hield     NOP   20  .502   14.5   4.9   2.3    .5   1.7   .2   .62
1.7   Marquese Chriss Phx   18  .495   13.1   7.2   1.2   1.1   2.5  1.0   .56

1.7 Willy Hernangomez NYK   13  .574   13.1  11.4   1.8    .6   3.1  1.2   .91
1.5   Andrew Harrison Mem   25  .442    9.2   3.4   5.0   1.3   2.1   .6   .40
1.4  Domantas Sabonis OkC   21  .502    9.9   6.3   2.2   1.0   1.9   .8   .39
1.3   Pascal Siakam   Tor   17  .517    9.4   7.7    .8   1.0   1.4  2.0   .47
1.3   M. Kuzminskas   NYK   14  .566   14.4   4.1   2.2   1.3   1.6   .4   .66

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Jamal Murray    Den   20  .482   11.3   4.5   2.8    .8   2.1   .6   .37
1.2   Malcolm Delaney Atl   17  .480   10.4   3.5   5.7   1.0   3.0   .0   .40
1.0   Kay Felder      Cle   10  .466   14.2   3.8   5.6    .9   1.5   .4   .95
0.9   Brandon Ingram  LAL   28  .455    8.6   5.2   2.5    .5   1.6   .6   .20
0.8   Kris Dunn       Min   17  .430    6.7   4.7   4.7   2.0   2.7   .9   .30

0.7   Jaylen Brown    Bos   13  .501   11.0   5.0   1.6    .8   1.5   .7   .33
0.7  Juan Hernangomez Den   11  .554    9.0   7.6   1.2   1.1    .9  1.0   .51
0.7   Caris LeVert    Brk   18  .534    9.9   4.4   2.8   1.5   1.3   .2   .42
0.6   Davis Bertans   SAS   10  .622   11.5   3.9   2.2    .6   1.2  1.3   .42
0.5   Dejounte Murray SAS    7  .554   18.0   3.8   4.6   1.1   4.1   .5   .86

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.5  Isaiah Whitehead Brk   22  .468    9.2   4.1   4.5   1.0   3.7  1.0   .17
0.5   Jonathan Gibson Dal   14  .484   14.6   3.4   3.5   1.1   3.0   .0   .50
0.4   T Waller-Prince Atl   10  .511   10.3   6.2   2.1   1.0   2.0  1.0   .42
0.4   Rodney McGruder Mia   26  .474    7.2   4.9   1.9    .9   1.0   .3   .11
0.4   Alex Abrines    OkC   14  .551   12.3   2.9   1.1   1.1   1.4   .3   .21

Embiid is not just the lone above-avg player (1.00 eW/484), he's the only above avg (15.0) scorer; just 5 others are better than avg (6.6) rebounders.

[Mike G]

Season now at .635 complete, and rookies project to total 40 eWins; with 24 in the East and 16 in the West.

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.1   Joel Embiid     Phl   25   .569   29.1  11.7   2.9   1.3   5.6  3.6  2.35
3.3   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   25   .531   12.2   4.0   5.6   1.6   2.2   .2   .77
2.6   Dario Saric     Phl   24   .471   12.5   8.5   2.3    .8   2.8   .4   .64
2.5 Willy Hernangomez NYK   15   .561   13.8  12.5   2.1    .8   2.6  1.1  1.15
2.0   Marquese Chriss Phx   18   .498   14.2   7.0   1.1   1.6   2.3  1.2   .63

1.9   Buddy Hield     NOP   20   .491   13.7   5.0   2.3    .5   1.6   .2   .54
1.7   Jamal Murray    Den   20   .499   12.8   4.4   3.1    .8   2.2   .6   .50
1.2   Andrew Harrison Mem   23   .457    9.7   3.2   4.8   1.3   2.0   .5   .34
1.1   M. Kuzminskas   NYK   15   .528   13.2   4.4   2.1   1.3   1.6   .5   .53
1.1   Malcolm Delaney Atl   18   .476   10.6   3.4   5.1   1.1   2.7   .0   .36

e82     per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.1   Pascal Siakam   Tor   17   .520    9.7   7.9    .8   1.1   1.4  1.9   .43
1.0   Davis Bertans   SAS   12   .607   12.9   4.3   2.3    .9   1.1  1.3   .58
0.9   Jaylen Brown    Bos   15   .498   11.3   5.8   1.5    .9   1.5   .6   .36
0.9   Caris LeVert    Brk   20   .541   10.8   4.6   3.0   1.6   1.8   .2   .47
0.8  Domantas Sabonis OkC   22   .478    9.6   6.5   1.9    .9   2.1   .7   .23
0.8   Kay Felder      Cle   11   .472   13.6   3.4   5.1   1.3   2.3   .6   .73

0.8   Brandon Ingram  LAL   28   .444    8.7   5.2   2.3    .6   1.6   .6   .16
0.7   Ivica Zubac     LAL   13   .527   13.7  10.3   1.2    .7   2.0  2.1   .99
0.7  Isaiah Whitehead Brk   22   .460    9.7   4.0   4.8    .9   3.2   .9   .23
0.7  Juan Hernangomez Den   11   .580    9.8   8.1   1.2   1.0    .9   .9   .54
0.6   Kris Dunn       Min   17   .427    6.6   4.8   5.0   1.8   2.8   .9   .24
0.5   Rodney McGruder Mia   26   .491    8.0   4.8   2.0    .9    .9   .3   .13

[Crow]

One star, a handful of good and a lot of overrated / meh to bad.

Brogdon was my best pickup in sim drafts.

'Gomez' bros doing well.

Sabonis sunk far from first month surprise.

[Mike G]

At the break, rookie faux RPM, ranked by points above replacement.
PAR = (fRPM + 5.25)*Min/48

Code: Select all

PAR   rookies         tm    Min   fRPM    BPM   PER   WS/48
150  Joel Embiid     PHL    786    3.9    3.6   24.2   .121
129  Malcolm Brogdon MIL   1406    -.9   -1.3   13.9   .082
86   Rodney McGruder MIA   1390   -2.3    -.3    8.8   .068
85   Dario Saric     PHL   1368   -2.3   -3.0   11.5   .015
81   W Hernangomez   NYK    769    -.2    -.2   18.7   .126

77  Domantas Sabonis OKC   1235   -2.3   -4.9    6.6   .016
76   Andrew Harrison MEM   1162   -2.1   -2.1    8.5   .056
72   Marquese Chriss PHX   1070   -2.0   -2.5   10.9   .034
64   D Finney-Smith  DAL   1143   -2.5   -1.1    7.9   .051
54   Davis Bertans   SAS    556    -.6    2.0   13.0   .142

PAR   rookies         tm    Min   fRPM    BPM   PER   WS/48
52   Kris Dunn       MIN    882   -2.4   -3.2    7.4  -.014
52   Pascal Siakam   TOR    806   -2.2   -1.4   11.0   .077
51   Jamal Murray    DEN   1116   -3.0   -3.0   11.3   .029
49   J Hernangomez   DEN    512    -.6    -.6   13.8   .115
46   Caris LeVert    BRK    642   -1.8   -1.8   11.0   .043

45   Alex Abrines    OKC    643   -1.9   -3.1    9.9   .091
43   Brandon Ingram  LAL   1604   -4.0   -4.4    7.2  -.014
41   M Kuzminskas    NYK    686   -2.4   -2.2   12.5   .056
38   Jaylen Brown    BOS    821   -3.0   -5.0    9.6   .042
38   Buddy Hield     NOP   1161   -3.7   -3.8    9.9   .018

PAR   rookies         tm    Min   fRPM    BPM   PER   WS/48
35   Yogi Ferrell    tot    481   -1.7   -1.2   13.7   .077
35   Malcolm Delaney ATL    991   -3.6   -5.4    8.4   .013
31   Troy Williams   MEM    418   -1.7   -2.8    7.7   .010
27   T Satoransky    WAS    553   -2.9   -2.6    8.9   .054
24   Jakob Poeltl    TOR    345   -2.0   -1.1   10.1   .097

22   Patrick McCaw   GSW    571   -3.4   -2.4    7.8   .060
21   Thon Maker      MIL    218    -.6   -1.8   16.8   .143
20  Isaiah Whitehead BRK   1048   -4.3   -5.8    6.9  -.044
19   Kay Felder      CLE    342   -2.5   -5.0   11.7   .043
19   T Waller-Prince ATL    353   -2.6   -4.0    8.7   .039

[Mike G]

At the 3/4 mark, rookies are limping toward 41 total eWins. Embiid currently has 3.6 and will get no more.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.8   Joel Embiid     Phl   25  .569   27.7  11.5   2.8   1.3   5.5  3.3  2.24
3.8   Dario Saric     Phl   25  .495   14.1   8.8   2.7    .8   2.8   .4   .89
3.6   Malcolm Brogdon Mil   26  .542   12.7   3.9   5.5   1.6   2.1   .2   .82
2.9 Willy Hernangomez NYK   16  .574   13.8  12.6   2.2    .9   2.5  1.2  1.25
2.1   Marquese Chriss Phx   19  .503   13.5   6.7   1.2   1.5   2.1  1.1   .65

1.8   Jamal Murray    Den   20  .500   12.9   4.4   3.0    .9   2.2   .5   .54
1.8   Buddy Hield     NOP   20  .499   13.6   5.0   2.3    .6   1.5   .2   .57
1.2   Jaylen Brown    Bos   16  .522   11.9   6.1   1.5   1.0   1.7   .5   .45
1.1   Andrew Harrison Mem   21  .464    9.6   3.2   4.8   1.4   2.0   .4   .37
1.0   Malcolm Delaney Atl   18  .459    9.9   3.4   5.2   1.1   2.6   .0   .34

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.0  Domantas Sabonis OkC   21  .478    9.5   6.3   1.8    .9   1.9   .8   .28
1.0   Caris LeVert    Brk   21  .524   10.4   4.7   3.1   1.7   1.8   .2   .47
0.9   Pascal Siakam   Tor   16  .517    9.3   7.8    .8   1.1   1.4  1.8   .43
0.9   Mi Kuzminskas   NYK   14  .512   12.3   4.4   2.2   1.1   1.7   .4   .45
0.9   Davis Bertans   SAS   11  .607   12.9   4.2   2.3    .9   1.4  1.1   .57

0.9  Juan Hernangomez Den   12  .591   10.6   7.8   1.2   1.2   1.2   .7   .59
0.9   Ivica Zubac     LAL   14  .510   12.5   9.0   1.3    .8   1.9  2.2   .84
0.9   Rodney McGruder Mia   26  .507    8.6   4.7   2.0    .9    .9   .3   .21
0.7   Brandon Ingram  LAL   28  .446    8.5   5.1   2.3    .6   1.7   .6   .14
0.6   Kris Dunn       Min   17  .427    6.3   4.7   4.9   1.7   2.5   .9   .25

At their current rates, Brogdon would end up with the most Win Shares; McGruder should challenge Embiid for greatest VORP.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ekMFb

[Crow]

Saric at #2 surprises. By winshares per 48 and other metrics he has been pretty awful (compared to league average performance).

Ingram is another big name / high pick disappointment.

Might be useful to see rating for first half season vs. second half to date. Performance in first half may be forgivable or disposable with the late season data available. But which is a better predictor of the future, full rookie season data or last half season?