Saric rookie comparisons

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JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Crow wrote:Using space isn't an issue to me. Immediately fully visible is easy.

Curry having Parsons as a comp isn't "bad" but I consider Parsons as something of an empty calorie scorer. Not really empty, just less diverse a contributor than you might expect / want.

Cuban might have gotten too excited in print for Ferrell. At that salary it is fine but still more likely a minor addition than anything that special.

On weights, I'd weight shooting / scoring efficiency higher than other stuff, especially for perimeters.
Definitely on Ferrell. If he maintains this sort of production, next year will be really valuable from a production to $$$ standpoint. The value will go away after that.

I'll post my Excel file later tonight once I get home from the office, so people can play around with it. It's a little ugly, as I never expected to send it out, but it's pretty self-explanatory. In theory, this can be the basis for projections moving forward. I haven't had a chance to mess with it much since I created the file a few weeks ago, but my wife is heading out of town starting tomorrow, so I'm going to have a bunch of a free time in the next couple days to make updates/changes.

*I'd be happy to add DRPM, or anything else, I just don't have it. I would need that, or the % at rim, back to 1985.
Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

DRPM and player tracking data won't go back that far.

The options are to leave it out or maybe do a second file of just time that have them. While I can handle guys from 80s / 90s, I am generally more interested in more recent player comparisons. Last 5 year file could be good as second file.

Thanks for offer to allow access. I look forward to it.

Comparing your similars to Pelton's and Mike Goodman's (and others?? I don't think Layne Vashro's is still visible in public) would be interesting. The lists can change a lot based on methodology / weighting.
Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

One way to express how the Zingis comps list is weak is to note that only one player on it has a ws/48 much over .100 / league average for that season. None for Saric, Booker and Wiggin comps, among others.

I was too harsh on Parsons. It is more about value with him and recent performance / injury issues than performance in his best years. Seth might be headed to a much bigger next pay day, from someone most impressed with shooting / scoring.
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

I think that leaving it out won't matter too much. I definitely want to play around with the stats I'm using. Whether its trimming the list, or adding a few more stats that add context.

I have added the file I use to my website, so for anyone that wants to download it, you can go here: http://joshengleman.com/nba/

I have an active file that handles most of the calculations, since the dataset is so large. The only real calculations in this file are the zscores. For people that are just looking to quickly mess around, the "Data Pivot" sheet is all you need. Cells W1/X1/Y1 are the only places you'll need to input anything. It just needs the season in question, the player name, and now, a dropdown for either (Guard,Wings,Big,All). I have the weights for these set on the _Help sheet. I have them all set to 1 right now, so it won't matter what you pick, but you can play around on your own and it will adjust based on the dropdown. You can either set calculations to manual and use the two macro buttons, or set it to automatic and just use the refresh pivot button. If I'm just changing the player, the sheet recalcs in like 5 seconds, so it's not too bad.
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Crow wrote:DRPM and player tracking data won't go back that far.

The options are to leave it out or maybe do a second file of just time that have them. While I can handle guys from 80s / 90s, I am generally more interested in more recent player comparisons. Last 5 year file could be good as second file.

Thanks for offer to allow access. I look forward to it.

Comparing your similars to Pelton's and Mike Goodman's (and others?? I don't think Layne Vashro's is still visible in public) would be interesting. The lists can change a lot based on methodology / weighting.
Trying to re-create Layne's tool (tools?) is a pet project of mine. I've been obsessed with comps for a while. Maybe this thread will be the kick in the butt I need to try to learn how to set it up.

Curry's issue is that he'll be 27 next year. He just needs to cash in as much as possible, since his career trajectory is different.
Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

The salary estimate for players is a feature that I think should get attention / use especially for upcoming free agents.


Al Horford comes back as worth $18-20 mil. this season. Isiah Thomas closer to what Horford is making.

The ever so important Andre Roberson question, $10-11 mil.
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Crow wrote:The salary estimate for players is a feature that I think should get attention / use especially for upcoming free agents.
Yeah, I wasn't totally comfortable with my assumptions, but I think we're in the neighborhood of $4M per win moving forward.

Here's one for George Hill. Expanded to 25, added some additional summary stuff.

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JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Crow wrote:The salary estimate for players is a feature that I think should get attention / use especially for upcoming free agents.


Al Horford comes back as worth $18-20 mil. this season. Isiah Thomas closer to what Horford is making.

The ever so important Andre Roberson question, $10-11 mil.
I started looking at team salaries/value in two hidden tabs for the Hawks and Heat.
Last edited by JoshEngleman on Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

I updated the file and added a few little things, namely an estimate for the next 4 years. Here's an example for Jeff Teague:

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Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

A multi -year horizon on wins and salary value is good so that one can total them. Most actual salaries increase. For guys past peak the actual performance is often moving the other way. A contract can be good in first year but be bad value for full term. Or it can be bad value the whole way, like I assume Horford's is projected to be and probably will be.

If you wanted to get even fancier, look at salary value vs. actual salary awarded by performance tiers (for last year or two by the "winning" GMs) and show both and calculate the net values. I.e. what is Caldwell -Pope projected to be worth for 4 years vs. what is the market likely to pay him? This extra step would take your system beyond the others.
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Here's a look at your Horford example. I don't really think this current contract will be a problem, so long as he doesn't have a dramatic decline. If he declines naturally, I wouldn't expect him to pick up the 2019-20 Player Option, so he is effectively on a 2 year, $57M deal.

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JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Tim Hardaway Jr. will be an interesting guy this off-season. Using his comps, he has a shot to grow into a league average guy (based on this crude method, at least). $15M per year seems pretty reasonable this off-season. Using the table here, he'd be looking at 4 years, $68.4M. I just can't see a reason why the Hawks would want to sign that deal.


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Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

The Celtics should probably hope so. Not sure if they assumed it.

Cool for taking the extra step.
Crow
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by Crow »

Horford is "worth" more today than yesterday (using your file yesterday afternoon) because...?

I think I understand you increased the value of wins in future years but it looks like they are still worth the same S4 mil. this season? Anything else change?
JoshEngleman
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Re: Saric rookie comparisons

Post by JoshEngleman »

Crow wrote:Horford is "worth" more today than yesterday (using your file yesterday afternoon) because...?

I think I understand you increased the value of wins in future years but it looks like they are still the same this season? Anything else change?
Hmm, not sure what the difference could be. Maybe looking at two different columns? So Horford's value for the 2016-17 season alone would be calculated using the "Wins/48" column. That is solely based on this year's stats. "Talent" would be something like 60% this year, 30% 2015-16 and 10% 2014-15. So Horford's estimated talent heading in to '17-18 is higher than his '16-17 performance. That's the only thing that could have changed from yesterday to today.

$ per win is using $4M per for '17-18 (which might be a little low), with an increase of 5% per year.
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