Finals Outlook

[shadow]

This year is on track to be only the 5th year in NBA history in which one conference occupies the top 5 spots in SRS. It previously happened from 2000 to 2002 and in 2014. Each time it was the West occupying the top 5 spots.

Small sample size alert obviously, but In the previous 4 occurrences, the West won the Finals each time with a cumulative record of 16-4. 2000 Indiana accounted for half the wins by the East.

I suppose if Cleveland gets their act together they could make the Finals competitive. Particularly if they play the Warriors, who I think they match up a bit better with compared to the Spurs. But if those previous Finals matchups are any indication, we might be in for a pretty dull Finals series.

[Crow]

Smashing the Cavs might not be dull. LeBron probably makes it better than dull, in some way.

[Mike G]

The way this works is that both conferences have competitive series, and whoever comes out of the West is beat up and tired, making the Finals more competitive.
In theory.
LeBron's legacy on the big stage is now about whether he's the GOAT there, or if he's done all a human can do.
Track LeBron's avg Game Score thru the last 2 postseasons; and those of the MVP:

Code: Select all

LeBron  1st    2nd    3rd   Final
2015    20.0   19.2   23.5   24.6
2016    18.3   20.7   25.0   26.5
            
Steph    1st    2nd   3rd   Final
2015    24.0   17.6   24.7   17.9
2016    10.5   26.2   20.9   13.1

Curry didn't play much in last year's 1st and 2nd rounds.
LeBron does the most when the competition is greatest.
http://bkref.com/tiny/pOww9

[shadow]

True, but LeBron's team was involved in the last Finals when this happened, which saw the Spurs put on an offensive clinic and make quick work of Miami in 5 games. None of the other West teams that won the Finals in the aforementioned years had much trouble at all in the Finals. There are no back to backs in the playoffs and there's usually a short break before the Finals start, so I don't know about the validity of the "team from the stronger conference gets worn out" theory. Curry suffered multiple injuries in the playoffs last year, but one happened in the first game and the other was on a fluke slip, so they weren't really the result of fatigue. Obviously it's a somewhat big assumption, but if SAS or GSW make it to the Finals unscathed and Durant is at least close to 100%, I wouldn't give the Cavs more than a 20% chance to win the Finals.

This season is actually playing out pretty similar to 2014. In both seasons, LeBron's team is coming off a championship won in 7 games (both involving a series comeback from LeBron's team) and having a relatively mediocre regular season (2014 Heat won 54 games; 2017 Cavs on pace for 53.3) in which their defense has declined from the previous year (Miami fell from 9th to 14th ; Cavs have fallen from 4th to 22nd). The Cavs offense this year is 5.55 pp/100 better than league average compared to 5.85 for 2014 Miami.

[Mike G]

B-R.com shows teams' chance of going to the Finals and winning it all. The ratio Win/Go shows their chances of winning should they get there. As if their opponent were unknown.

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East   SRS    Go    Win   W/Go
Tor   3.42   .278   .047   .17
Cle   3.16   .286   .042   .15
Bos   2.05   .192   .025   .13
Was   1.44   .125   .014   .11
Mia    .61   .021   .002   .10
Mil   -.41   .034   .002   .06
Chi   -.85   .019   .002   .11
Ind   -.89   .022   .001   .05
Atl  -1.42   .023   .002   .09
            
West   SRS    Go    Win   W/Go
GSW  11.55   .689   .636   .92
SAS   7.32   .162   .128   .79
Hou   6.28   .101   .073   .72
Uta   3.75   .017   .010   .59
Mem   1.27   .005   .002   .40
OKC   1.22   .003   .001   .33
Por   -.27   .001   .000   .00

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... _prob.html

...pretty similar to 2014. In both seasons, LeBron's team is coming off a championship won in 7 games (both involving a series comeback from LeBron's team) and having a relatively mediocre regular season...

Alright, but Tristan Thompson hadn't missed a game in eleventy-five years -- and then he did ...!

[Nathan]

Perhaps slightly off topic, but had the thought...is Boston the weakest #1 seed ever? I tried to search this on basketball reference (lowest wins or MOV among #1 seeds) but couldn't find a straightforward way to do so. ESPN's BPI gives them just a 72% chance to advance to the second round, while all other top-3 seeds this year have at least an 80% chance to do so. B-R's projection that Mike posted gives them less than a 1/5 chance to win their conference, and a microscopic 1/40 chance of actually winning the championship.

[shadow]

B-R has Adjusted Net Rating available since 1985-86. Out of the 64 #1 seeds from 1986-2017, Boston has the lowest Adjusted Net Rating at 2.32. The following teams round out the top 5 of worst #1 seeds in that time period:

2003 Pistons: 3.36
2014 Pacers: 3.83
2001 Sixers: 3.92
2002 Nets: 3.94