Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

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Mike G
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Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Yesterday in the Hou 113-109 OKC game, the Thunder were +14 when Westbrook was on the floor, thus -18 in the 9 minutes he was resting. That's -2 points per minute.
For the series (4 G), they're +3 when he plays and -40 when he sits, just -1 Pt/Min
Rockets meanwhile have been a bit better when Harden rests.

In the Spurs' overtime loss to the Grizz in game 4, Kawhi Leonard's 44 minutes netted +18 on the scoreboard.
In their 9 minutes without him, they lost 20 points to Memphis.

The Bucks' Greg Monroe seems to be enjoying his first postseason, after 15,955 career regular-season minutes.

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Mil'17PO   mpg   PER  WS/48  BPM   e480
Giannis    39   19.1  .129   6.2   2.34
Middleton  38   12.2  .113   1.1   1.28
Brogdon    32    5.9  .021  -1.5    .52
Snell      30   14.0  .211   4.8    .90
Delly      26    5.5  .047  -3.2   -.02
Monroe     24   31.0  .377  11.0   3.14
Those 5 with more minutes are all G and SF. Maybe because he's the only C on the team, he fills a void?
He doesn't seem to qualify for the playoff leader boards at b-r.com. If he did, he'd be 1st in PER, WS/48, and BPM.
As is, he's 4th in Win Shares and 9th in VORP.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

After 4 games for everyone (5 for Tor/Mil), here's a composite leaderboard.
After scaling avg VORP to Win Shares (1.95 multiplier), xyz is the average of these per-game rates.

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.xyz      per game     tm   mpg   eWin   2vorp   WS
.310   Kawhi Leonard   SAS   37   .275   .308   .348
.273   Chris Paul      LAC   36   .219   .338   .262
.242   LeBron James    Cle   44   .254   .260   .213
.220   James Harden    Hou   37   .290   .187   .183
.213 Russell Westbrook OKC   38   .328   .244   .069

.207   Draymond Green  GSW   35   .138   .263   .220
.198   Stephen Curry   GSW   34   .172   .220   .201
.197   Mike Conley     Mem   36   .177   .237   .178
.164   John Wall       Was   37   .180   .142   .171
.151   Al Horford      Bos   35   .136   .148   .170

.xyz      per game     tm   mpg   eWin   2vorp   WS
.150   Paul Millsap    Atl   35   .155   .141   .153
.144   Giannis A       Mil   39   .163   .157   .112
.138   Paul George     Ind   43   .155   .138   .122
.136   Nene Hilario    Hou   21   .140   .113   .155
.129   Jimmy Butler    Chi   42   .134   .111   .141

.122   Dennis Schroder Atl   34   .126   .106   .133
.115   Greg Monroe     Mil   24   .105   .105   .136
.102   Lou Williams    Hou   27   .110   .069   .127
.096   Kyle Lowry      Tor   37   .080   .106   .102
.096   Norman Powell   Tor   18   .078   .098   .113

.xyz      per game     tm   mpg   eWin   2vorp   WS
.095   Robin Lopez     Chi   27   .064   .081   .141
.082   Joe Ingles      Uta   35   .055   .124   .066
.081   DeAndre Jordan  LAC   37   .100   .027   .115
.080   Isaiah Thomas   Bos   37   .131   .039   .070
.067   DeMar DeRozan   Tor   36   .107   .023   .071
This is everyone in the top 20 of eWins, WS, or VORP.
VORP has the fewest outliers (correlates best with the avg).
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Most playoff minutes in 1st round by a player 40 or older, since 1984

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Min.  rd1 @ 40+     yr
195  Vince Carter  2017
194  Karl Malone   2004
158  Jason Kidd    2013
149  John Stockton 2003
141  John Stockton 2002
http://bkref.com/tiny/IXYhq
These geezers collectively hit 83% of their FTA (57/69)
Mailman went on to get 798 minutes in the Lakers' run.

Highest Usage% over most minutes:

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year   playoffs   Min   Usg%
2005  Hamilton   1079   25.5
1994  Ewing      1032   28.6
2001  Iverson    1016   36.8
1992  Jordan      920   37.1
2015  LeBron      844   37.6
1993  Jordan      783   38.0
2001  Malone      199   38.4
2017  Westbrook   194   47.0
1993  R Lewis      13   47.7
...               etc.
RW is the only player to hit 40% Usage over 20 minutes (since 1984).
Rip just has the biggest-minute postseason.

Kawhi Leonard has a large lead over the field in Win Shares so far: 1.97 vs #2 Chris Paul at 1.30
He also leads comfortably in TS% .715 - .655 over DeAndre Jordan.
While a good TS% is favorable to Win Shares, the leaders are typically dominated by low-usage guys and first-round exiters.

Recent others who have placed top 10 in both categories:

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year    PO Rank:   TS%  WS
2017   Kawhi        1    1
2015  Chris Paul    4    6
2014   LeBron       2    1
2012   Durant       3    2
.      Harden       7    5
2011   Harden       6    9
.     T Chandler    7    5
.      Nowitzki     9    3
2010   Nash         6   10
2009   Billups      1    5
.      Nowitzki     6   10
.     D Howard      8    3
2008   Posey        6    7
2007  B Davis       6    7
.      Billups      7    4
Tim Duncan has the all-time most WS in a postseason, 5.94 in 2003 -- 1.48 per PO series.
LeBron got 4.83 without making the Finals in 2009 -- 1.61 per series.

Best Game Scores in a 1st round series since 1984, separated by games played.

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year    3 games   GmSc
1992   Jordan     38.4
1994   Barkley    35.0
1986   Jordan     30.6
1995   Barkley    30.4
1989   K Johnson  29.8

year    4 games   GmSc
1988   Olajuwon   34.2
2009   LeBron     30.3
1994   Olajuwon   28.7
2017 * LeBron     28.4
1990   Jordan     28.2

year    5 games   GmSc
1988   Jordan     34.0
1984   B King     31.7
1989   Jordan     30.9
2010   LeBron     29.5
1993   Olajuwon   29.2

year    6 games   GmSc
2017 * K Leonard  26.6
2008   LeBron     25.4
2013   Durant     25.1
2003   Shaq       24.9
2006   Arenas     24.7

year    7 games   GmSc
2005   McGrady    22.9
2015   Griffin    22.3
2003   McGrady    22.3
2003   Dirk       21.9
2016   P George   21.6
http://bkref.com/tiny/i68tX
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Here's everyone (since 1978?) to have a postseason of more than 32 minutes and both:
Usg% > 30
ORtg/DRtg > 1.20

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30@1.2    yr    min   Usg%   ORt   DRt
Jordan   1996   733   32.9   123   101
Jordan   1991   689   32.7   127   101
LeBron   2009   580   36.4   128   100
George   2016   275   30.5   121   101
Kawhi  * 2017   226   31.5   141   107
Paul  *  2017   220   32.2   128   107
Olajuwon 1988   162   32.7   134   102
Robinson 2000   155   32.1   101    84
Paul     2016   125   30.9   125   103
http://bkref.com/tiny/EUdxi
ORtg/DRtg is a handy reference, since it incorporates team, opponent, and league-avg ORtg and DRtg

Not-quite first round leaders in per game averages:

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Points per game
37.4  Westbrook
33.2  Harden
32.8  LeBron
31.2  Kawhi
29.8  Curry
29.5  Wall

Rebounds
13.8  D Jordan
11.6  Westbrook
11.0  T Thompson
10.7  D Howard
10.7  Gortat

Assists
10.8  Westbrook
10.3  Wall
10.0  Paul
10.0  Rondo (2 G)
9.0   LeBron

Steals
3.5  Rondo (2 G)
3.0  LeBron
2.4  Westbrook
2.4  Roberson
2.3  Beal
2.2  Giannis

Blocks
4.3  D Green
3.4  Roberson
2.6  Capela
2.3  Ibaka
2.3  McGee
2.3  Gortat
Javale McGee in just 12 mpg. He'd get 7 (and foul out) in 36 minutes.
Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Going into game 7, Chris Paul has done as much as any 2 opponents in the series, according to Win Shares, VORP, and eWins.

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. Jazz         mpg   e480  ws/48  BPM   eWins   WS  vorp
Gordon Hayward  36   2.19  .179   4.5    .97   .79   .36
George Hill     36   1.04  .096    .8    .47   .44   .16
Rudy Gobert     16   2.27  .222   6.4    .44   .43   .20
Joe Johnson     32   1.16  .106   2.3    .47   .43   .22
Derrick Favors  26    .95  .123   2.0    .30   .39   .16
Joe Ingles      33    .28  .058   2.5    .11   .24   .23
Boris Diaw      19    .35  .075    .5    .08   .17   .07
Raul Neto        5    .26  .124   1.1    .02   .08   .03
Shelvin Mack     7   -.34 -.062  -6.3   -.03  -.05  -.04
Rodney Hood     26    .22 -.029  -5.5    .07  -.09  -.13
. totals       234                      2.91  2.84  1.27

. Clippers     mpg   e480  ws/48  BPM   eWins   WS  vorp
Chris Paul      37   3.36  .334  15.9   1.54  1.53  1.00
DeAndre Jordan  38   1.58  .114  -1.0    .74   .53   .07
L Mbah a Moute  35    .48  .100   2.6    .21   .44   .25
Raymond Felton  17    .30  .109   1.4    .07   .23   .09
M Speights      15    .89  .114   1.0    .17   .21   .07
Blake Griffin   17   1.97  .099   -.2    .41   .20   .05
J.J. Redick     31   -.14  .007  -2.8   -.05   .03  -.03
Paul Pierce     13   -.33  .014  -2.0   -.06   .02   .00
Austin Rivers    9   -.04 -.011  -3.3    .00  -.01  -.01
Jamal Crawford  27    .19 -.009  -4.4    .07  -.03  -.09
. totals       237                      3.08  3.16  1.40
Paul has half of the Clippers' WS and eW, 71% of their VORP.

With minimum 200 minutes, the best-ever playoff BPM:

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year  playoffs   G    PER  WS/48   BPM
2009  LeBron    14   37.4  .399   18.2
2017  Paul       6   33.1  .334   15.9
1977  Kareem    11   32.4  .332   14.8
1990  Jordan    16   31.7  .284   14.3
1991  Jordan    17   32.0  .333   13.8
It's not a fluke for Chris Paul to be in this territory.
Career PO BPM leaders, 2000+ minutes:

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playoffs   G    PER  WS/48   BPM
LeBron   203   27.7  .238   10.7
Jordan   179   28.6  .255   10.1
Paul      75   26.1  .216    8.7
Magic    190   23.0  .208    7.4
Barkley  123   24.2  .193    7.3
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

First round leaders in eWins per game.

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eW/G     per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.301 Russell Westbrook OKC  39  .500   32.0  10.7   7.6   2.3   5.7   .4   3.73
.282   LeBron James   Cle   44  .590   27.4   8.9   8.0   2.5   3.8  1.7   3.09
.274   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   38  .695   38.4   7.2   3.9   1.9   2.4   .2   3.50
.273   James Harden   Hou   37  .578   36.6   6.2   6.4   1.6   5.9   .6   3.50
.206   John Wall      Was   39  .610   31.2   3.8   8.8   1.6   4.5   .6   2.56

.205  Chris Paul      LAC   37  .584   27.7   5.9   8.8   1.7   2.8   .1   2.65
.198  Giannis A       Mil   41  .548   26.5   9.5   3.4   2.0   3.1  1.5   2.35
.191   Stephen Curry  GSW   34  .613   36.4   5.8   6.5   2.5   3.8   .7   2.72
.182  Mike Conley     Mem   37  .609   25.8   3.7   6.8   1.6   2.1   .4   2.34
.172  Paul George     Ind   43  .544   21.6   7.9   5.9   1.5   3.0   .4   1.92

eW/G     per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.163  Paul Millsap    Atl   37  .582   26.5   9.8   4.0   1.5   4.0   .7   2.15
.154   Gordon Hayward Uta   36  .613   27.3   8.3   2.7    .7   2.8   .3   2.03
.154   Draymond Green GSW   35  .663   16.9   9.5   7.2   1.8   2.1  3.8   2.09
.153  Dennis Schroder Atl   35  .576   26.7   2.5   7.4   1.2   1.8   .0   2.09
.145   DeMar DeRozan  Tor   37  .534   26.8   6.0   3.1   1.7   3.0   .0   1.89

.141   Nene Hilario   Hou   22  .773   28.9   9.9    .8    .9   2.0   .9   3.07
.140   Al Horford     Bos   35  .640   19.0  10.0   7.2   1.4   1.5   .6   2.30
.131  DeAndre Jordan  LAC   38  .607   16.9  16.7    .6    .4   2.5   .8   1.67
.122   Isaiah Thomas  Bos   37  .555   28.5   4.5   5.9   1.0   4.3   .0   1.93
.119   Lou Williams   Hou   28  .595   23.1   5.1   1.8   1.0   1.3   .0   2.01

eW/G     per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.116   Bradley Beal   Was   39  .538   23.1   3.6   1.9   2.2   2.0   .7   1.45
.115  Jimmy Butler    Chi   41  .504   19.6   6.5   4.9   1.2   2.3   .9   1.59
.107  Greg Monroe     Mil   24  .598   24.6  11.7   2.3   1.9   2.7   .7   2.18
.102  Marc Gasol      Mem   40  .583   17.9   6.6   3.8    .3   2.5   .5   1.22
.100   Tony Parker    SAS   27  .613   25.1   3.7   4.6    .7   2.4   .0   1.77

.096   Kyrie Irving   Cle   34  .495   22.7   2.6   3.7   1.1   2.7  1.1   1.35
.095  Damian Lillard  Por   38  .541   24.3   4.1   2.5   1.2   3.3   .5   1.21
.094   Serge Ibaka    Tor   30  .513   16.4  11.3   2.1    .6   1.8  2.9   1.52
.093  Jeff Teague     Ind   36  .630   17.7   3.6   6.0   1.0   2.2   .8   1.26
.084   George Hill    Uta   36  .570   18.8   4.8   3.5    .3   2.0   .1   1.11
.084  Dwyane Wade     Chi   34  .509   18.2   5.6   4.8    .8   2.3  1.7   1.41
At every level, about half of all star players did not advance.
Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Data dump: First-round numbers for those moving on.

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. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Avery Bradley    BOS   7  255   15.0   .108   2.1
Isaiah Thomas    BOS   7  247   19.6   .137   1.3
Jae Crowder      BOS   7  238   13.5   .126    .9
Al Horford       BOS   7  238   26.6   .312   9.3
Marcus Smart     BOS   7  210   13.8   .119   3.8
Kelly Olynyk     BOS   7  133   18.9   .165   4.4
Terry Rozier     BOS   6  103   15.7   .189   2.7
Gerald Green     BOS   6   96   10.0   .041  -4.6
Jonas Jerebko    BOS   6   58    9.8   .049  -1.1
Amir Johnson     BOS   4   41    5.3  -.027  -5.2
Jaylen Brown     BOS   6   36   10.3  -.036  -7.1
Tyler Zeller     BOS   3   17    7.5   .028 -11.7
James Young      BOS   4    8     .5  -.049 -11.6

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
LeBron James     CLE   4  175   30.1   .232  10.1
Kyrie Irving     CLE   4  137   17.4   .016  -6.2
Kevin Love       CLE   4  132   15.7   .109   -.9
Tristan Thompson CLE   4  125   14.4   .098    .6
J.R. Smith       CLE   4  115    5.9   .004  -1.5
Kyle Korver      CLE   4   69   11.7   .086    .4
Deron Williams   CLE   4   62   24.9   .337   7.1
Channing Frye    CLE   4   61   26.3   .307   7.8
Iman Shumpert    CLE   3   50    4.8   .041  -1.4
Richard Jefferson CLE  3   33    7.7   .068  -1.6

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Draymond Green   GSW   4  141   23.2   .290  12.8
Klay Thompson    GSW   4  137    9.6   .019  -4.7
Stephen Curry    GSW   4  135   28.3   .274  10.5
Andre Iguodala   GSW   4  120   10.8   .146    .5
Patrick McCaw    GSW   4   83   11.6   .166   2.8
Ian Clark        GSW   4   75   12.2   .156  -2.5
Zaza Pachulia    GSW   4   58   14.0   .134  -1.4
David West       GSW   4   58   21.0   .264   5.5
Kevin Durant     GSW   2   56   24.1   .199   3.4
JaVale McGee     GSW   4   49   38.9   .428  13.9
James M McAdoo   GSW   3   21   14.6   .168  -6.1
Shaun Livingston GSW   1   15    5.7   .145   -.4
Damian Jones     GSW   2   12   10.5   .164  -2.2

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Trevor Ariza     HOU   5  190    5.6   .055   1.3
James Harden     HOU   5  187   26.6   .221   8.5
Eric Gordon      HOU   5  167   12.5   .119   1.9
Ryan Anderson    HOU   5  143    5.8   .034  -2.8
Lou Williams     HOU   5  142   21.8   .224   3.0
Patrick Beverley HOU   5  138   14.2   .117   4.4
Clint Capela     HOU   5  111   18.5   .164   5.0
Nene Hilario     HOU   5  110   26.4   .300   5.7
Bobby Brown      HOU   1    4   16.2   .093 -11.8
Montrezl Harrell HOU   1    4    3.8   .180 -11.9
Troy Williams    HOU   1    4  -10.0  -.406 -21.1

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Kawhi Leonard    SAS   6  226   37.0   .418  13.4
LaMarcus Aldridge SAS  6  224   14.7   .105   -.8
Tony Parker      SAS   6  163   21.6   .171   1.7
Danny Green      SAS   6  145    9.5   .087   2.4
Pau Gasol        SAS   6  140    9.8   .047  -1.7
David Lee        SAS   6  130   14.1   .167   3.5
Patty Mills      SAS   6  130   15.2   .145   2.2
Manu Ginobili    SAS   6   93    7.5  -.012   1.9
Jonathon Simmons SAS   5   54   13.1   .124    .6
Kyle Anderson    SAS   5   51   17.6   .134   1.3
Davis Bertans    SAS   5   47    9.8   .051   -.9
Dewayne Dedmon   SAS   5   43   12.4   .125   1.8
Bryn Forbes      SAS   1    9   17.7   .256    .9
Dejounte Murray  SAS   2    9   13.4   .114  -4.3

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Kyle Lowry       TOR   6  231   14.4   .135   3.3
DeMar DeRozan    TOR   6  221   18.9   .124    .5
Serge Ibaka      TOR   6  178   16.0   .120   2.8
P.J. Tucker      TOR   6  145    3.4   .031  -1.3
Jonas Valanciunas TOR  6  126   12.4   .071  -7.7
Norman Powell    TOR   5  120   20.7   .242   5.7
Patrick Patterson TOR  6  114    9.8   .094   1.4
DeMarre Carroll  TOR   6  110   14.3   .158   3.6
Cory Joseph      TOR   6  103    4.3  -.036  -6.1
Delon Wright     TOR   6   57   16.2   .182   3.7
Jakob Poeltl     TOR   4   17   16.2   .109 -10.2
Fred VanVleet    TOR   3   11   13.6   .234  -7.2
Lucas Nogueira   TOR   3    7   25.6   .305 -11.5

. first round     Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Gordon Hayward   UTA   7  255   22.2   .180   3.7
George Hill      UTA   7  253   14.9   .113   1.2
Joe Ingles       UTA   7  235   10.9   .100   4.5
Joe Johnson      UTA   7  224   16.6   .101   1.6
Derrick Favors   UTA   7  184   17.8   .174   3.8
Rodney Hood      UTA   7  173    8.6   .003  -4.2
Boris Diaw       UTA   7  128   14.3   .102   1.4
Rudy Gobert      UTA   5  107   20.9   .201   4.4
Shelvin Mack     UTA   5   42    1.7  -.045  -6.1
Raul Neto        UTA   5   34   11.2   .099   -.2
Dante Exum       UTA   3   24   10.7   .136   1.4
Jeff Withey      UTA   3   21   14.6   .202   6.1

. first round *   Tm   G   MP   PER   WS/48   BPM
Bradley Beal     WAS   7  271   18.9   .097    .4
John Wall        WAS   7  271   25.9   .172   4.6
Marcin Gortat    WAS   7  227   14.7   .115   1.5
Otto Porter      WAS   7  218   15.6   .169   2.5
Markieff Morris  WAS   7  183    9.9   .007  -4.7
Bojan Bogdanovic WAS   7  148   15.5   .137  -2.3
Kelly Oubre      WAS   7  124   11.1   .079    .9
Jason Smith      WAS   7  109    3.7  -.033  -6.3
Brandon Jennings WAS   7  105   12.6   .101  -3.9
Tomas Satoransky WAS   6   14    -.6  -.097  -7.5
Daniel Ochefu    WAS   4    5  -19.5  -.464 -26.1
Sheldon McClellan WAS  3    4   26.4   .158  -5.5
* WAS numbers unfortunately include game 1 of round 2.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... anced.html

Correlations with minutes:

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rate:  PER    WS/48   BPM
Min.   .180   .096   .444
MPG    .208   .094   .482
That's for all players, not just the winners.
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Players who have gotten at least 14 blocks and 14 3-pointers in first 6 games of a postseason:

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year   thru 6 G      3FG  Blk
2017  Draymond Green  18   20
2010  LeBron James    16   14
http://bkref.com/tiny/innq3
18 and 18 thru 9 games:

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year  thru 9 G  3FG  Blk
2017  Draymond   18   20
2016  Draymond   19   22
2010  LeBron     18   19
Kind of an exclusive club. Yeah, that's if Green gets no more in next 3 games.
Last year, he totaled just 19 and 19 after this, in 14 games.

This postseason has already produced 14 of the 100 highest single-game 3-Pt totals for a team since the short-arc period. Last year's playoffs had 26 of 'em; added to 2015, we get 53% of them in just the last 2.x postseasons.

Here are playoff games to date, in which a team has scored more than half their points from beyond the arc:

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%3's    yr    Tm   3fg   Opp
.610   2016   CLE   25   ATL
.583   2016   GSW   21   OKC
.561   2016   CLE   20   DET
.531   2016   GSW   17   OKC
.529   2017   CLE   21   IND
.524   2017   HOU   22   SAS
.522   2015   GSW   20   HOU
.521   2016   GSW   21   HOU
.521   2016   CLE   21   ATL
.506   2016   GSW   15   CLE
Teams are scoring more this year, not just from long range.

Highest % of points from 3's for both teams combined:

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%3's    yr    Tm1  3fg  3fg   Tm2
.489   2016   CLE   25   11   ATL
.485   2016   CLE   21   16   ATL
.476   2017   CLE   21   16   IND
.457   2015   GSW   20   17   HOU
.426   2014   ATL   15   14   IND
.426   2016   CLE   14   12   TOR
.413   2017   HOU   22    9   SAS
.408   2016   POR   17   14   GSW
.396   2016   CLE   15   11   ATL
.396   2007   GSW   14   12   DAL
http://bkref.com/tiny/0qxJB

In that Cle-Atl series last year, 13 guys averaged at least 1 3FG per game

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player     tm  3fg  3a
Love      Cle   19  40
Smith     Cle   14  28
Irving    Cle   12  18
Frye      Cle   11  19
Schroder  Atl    9  19
LeBron    Cle    8  19
Sefolosha Atl    6   8
Korver    Atl    6  14
Horford   Atl    5  13
Bazemore  Atl    5  23
Jefferson Cle    5   6
Shumpert  Cle    4   6
Teague    Atl    4  15
Hawks hit .373, Cavs .506
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Through 3 games of round 2, and losing by 18 Pts/G, the Raptors have generated negative Win Shares and VORP.

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Raps rd2   Min    PER   e480   WS/48    BPM
DeRozan    106   15.5    .85   -.021   -3.8
Ibaka       94   10.8    .49   -.057   -4.1
Powell      83    4.8    .12   -.152   -5.8
Valanciunas 74   23.5   1.46    .149   -4.7
Lowry       69   21.8   1.13    .078    1.1

Joseph      69   13.0    .67   -.016   -1.1
Patterson   61    5.5   -.18   -.067   -4.6
Tucker      60   10.6    .54   -.020   -3.0
Carroll     39    -.2   -.28   -.216   -7.1
Wright      35   13.0    .11    .035   -1.6

. Totals   709   13.0    .60   -.018   -3.3
Just one player is holding his own in BPM -- or was.
Just 3 are above zero in WS production; one is out, the other 2 combine for 15% of Tor minutes.
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Best Game Score through first 7 games of a postseason (since 1984) --

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GmSc    per G    yr     Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk
32.0   LeBron   2009   33.7  10.0   6.6   2.1    .7
31.3   Jordan   1988   41.6   7.0   4.4   2.1   1.4
30.8   Jordan   1990   40.0   7.1   6.6   3.1   1.0
29.7   LeBron   2017   34.3   8.3   9.0   2.4   1.6
28.3   Jordan   1992   36.3   7.7   5.0   2.3   1.0

28.2   LeBron   2010   31.1   8.6   7.4   1.7   2.3
28.0   Jordan   1989   35.4   6.7   8.0   2.6    .3
27.5   Hakeem   1994   32.7  13.1   4.7   1.7   3.9
27.2   Bird     1987   29.7   9.4   7.9   1.6    .6
27.2   Hakeem   1993   28.6  15.0   4.4   1.3   5.6
Kawhi ranks #22.

During the Dubs-Jazz game I overheard something like, "He has the best playoff FT% ever". I didn't catch the name or any qualification such as "with at least xxx attempts".
So here are the best FT% with as many FTA.

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FTA @ %    FTA   FT%
Shaq      2317  .504
LeBron    1899  .745
Jordan    1786  .828
Magic     1274  .838
Dirk      1204  .892
Reggie     862  .893
Nash       440  .900
Sharman    406  .911
M Price    214  .944
Hayward     92  .946
J Long      49  .959
Nachbar     27  .963
Sm Parker   14  1.00
That's the immortal Smush with most attempts without a miss.
Hayward is 7-7 with 5 minutes left. If he doesn't miss any, he knocks John Long off the list.
Of all 90% FT shooters with 20+ attempts, Ryan Anderson has easily the lowest FTA/FGA (.158)


INSTANT UPDATE -- Hayward missed his last one, to go 13-14. His line now reads 86 @ .953.
update2 -- Hayward missed another in game 4; still makes the list (edited).
update2.1 -- Ryan Anderson went 2-4 in game 4 (OT loss!), thus tripling his career misses.
In 34 playoff games, it was only the 3rd time he's had as many as 4 FTA .
Bostjan Nachbar, with one miss in 27 attempts, backs into Anderson's spot. He was but a .784 RS FT shooter.
Crow
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Crow »

Odds against it but Cavs & Warriors could end in finals and both be without a playoff loss to date. Has that happened / recently? Not going look that up right now but tell us if you do.
shadow
Posts: 252
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by shadow »

The only time two teams met in the Finals without a prior playoff loss was 1957. Of course back then you only had to win one best of 5 series to advance to the Finals. Although St Louis did have to win two tiebreaker games that year to secure the top seed and then went 3-0 against Minneapolis to go on to face Boston, who swept Syracuse 3-0 in the East finals.
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Best 2nd-round series by Game Score, since 1984:

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GmSc     per game:    G    Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk
35.4   Jordan  1990   5   43.0   6.6   7.4   4.0   1.2
31.8   Jordan  1989   6   35.7   9.5   8.3   2.5   1.3
30.4   LeBron  2009   4   33.8   8.3   6.0   2.5    .5
29.8   LeBron  2017   4   36.0   8.3   5.3   1.3   1.0
28.7   Brand   2006   7   30.9  10.4   4.3   1.0   3.1

28.5   Dirk    2009   5   34.4  11.6   4.0    .8   1.0
28.4   Bird    1984   7   30.4  10.6   7.1   2.7   1.0
27.2   Jordan  1991   5   33.4   8.0   7.8   1.8   1.4
27.1  Hardaway 1991   5   26.8   2.8  12.8   3.8   1.0
27.0   Shaq    2001   4   33.3  17.3   2.3    .5   3.3
In both '09 and this year, LeBron hit 13 of 27 from the arc in round 2.

Best first-8-games in a postseason (limited to players who actually went 8 games)

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GmSc     per game:     Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk
31.8   Jordan  1990   40.6   7.0   7.1   3.0    .8
30.3   LeBron  2009   32.9   9.8   6.8   2.0    .6
29.7   Jordan  1989   36.0   7.8   8.1   3.0    .4
29.3   LeBron  2010   32.0   8.5   7.4   1.6   2.3
29.1   LeBron  2017   34.4   9.0   7.1   2.1   1.5

29.0   Jordan  1988   39.4   7.0   4.3   2.0   1.4
27.8   Jordan  1992   36.4   7.4   4.8   2.1    .9
27.6   Hakeem  1994   32.1  13.0   5.1   1.6   4.0
27.4   Shaq    2000   32.4  17.3   2.6    .8   2.8
27.2   Kawhi   2017   30.3   6.8   4.6   1.9    .4
http://bkref.com/tiny/OdkQ3
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Summary rates via b-r.com, extracted from the first round numbers up-thread, for 2nd round teams:

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. Cavs        min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp  eWin
LeBron James  164   32.0   .360  12.2   3.04   1.23   .58  1.04
Kyrie Irving  138   21.8   .205   3.6   2.27    .59   .19   .65
T Thompson    137   14.2   .203   4.4    .86    .58   .22   .25
Kevin Love    118   11.3   .079  -1.5   1.07    .20   .01   .26
J.R. Smith     93    8.4   .127   4.3    .13    .25   .15   .02

Kyle Korver    87   19.8   .249   7.4   1.02    .45   .20   .18
Iman Shumpert  83   10.4   .128   1.2    .52    .22   .07   .09
Deron Williams 66   10.7   .110   -.7    .70    .15   .02   .10
Channing Frye  53   24.1   .292   7.6   1.44    .32   .13   .16

. totals      945   17.8   .202   4.6   1.39   3.98  1.57  2.73
                        

. Raptors     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp  eWin
DeMar DeRozan 152   14.0  -.023  -3.4    .76   -.07  -.05   .24
Serge Ibaka   129   12.7  -.011  -3.1    .52   -.03  -.04   .14
Cory Joseph   109   18.5   .102   2.3   1.09    .23   .12   .25
Norman Powell 107    4.8  -.142  -5.5    .14   -.32  -.09   .03
P.J. Tucker   106   13.6   .057   1.1    .67    .13   .08   .15

J Valanciunas 100   20.1   .094  -5.2   1.12    .20  -.08   .23
P Patterson    71    5.1  -.088  -4.9   -.13   -.13  -.05  -.02
Kyle Lowry     69   21.4   .057   -.2   1.18    .08   .03   .17
D Carroll      45    1.2  -.186  -6.7   -.13   -.17  -.05  -.01
Delon Wright   35   12.8   .024  -1.8    .16    .02   .00   .01

Fred VanVleet  18   24.2   .200   6.2   1.15    .08   .04   .04
Jakob Poeltl    9   25.7   .103  -7.9   1.43    .02  -.01   .03

. totals      950   13.4   .001  -2.5    .64    .02  -.12  1.26
Minutes should total 960, but there were some bit players. Still, Win Shares and eWins total 4.0, so nothing major is excluded.
In neither of these series does PER sum to 15, but maybe it's not supposed to.
BPM is adjusted to strength of competition. In Cle/Tor it seems to be +2.1, and in GS/Uta it's +4.5

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. Warriors     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp  eWin
Draymond Green 142   23.6   .298  12.8   2.19    .88   .53   .65
Stephen Curry  140   25.0   .284   9.7   2.33    .83   .41   .68
Klay Thompson  138    9.6   .073    .5    .51    .21   .09   .15
Kevin Durant   136   25.7   .288   8.3   2.59    .82   .35   .73
Andre Iguodala 107    8.7   .063   1.8    .35    .14   .10   .08

S Livingston    64   11.0   .114    .8    .49    .15   .05   .06
David West      59   16.6   .203   7.1   1.14    .25   .13   .14
Zaza Pachulia   55   14.8   .187   1.9   1.29    .21   .05   .15
JaVale McGee    42   19.4   .268    .7    .91    .23   .03   .08
Ian Clark       40   14.8   .122  -2.2    .70    .10   .00   .06

. totals       940   17.5   .193   5.3   1.41   3.79  1.71  2.76
                       

. Jazz         min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp  eWin
Gordon Hayward 156   19.3   .085   4.8   1.32    .28   .26   .43
Rudy Gobert    139   21.6   .173   3.9   1.54    .50   .20   .45
Shelvin Mack   113   12.9   .036  -1.0    .75    .08   .03   .18
Rodney Hood    104   -1.5  -.194  -8.2   -.37   -.42  -.16  -.08
Joe Johnson    102    2.9  -.142  -6.4   -.07   -.30  -.11  -.01

Joe Ingles      99    8.9  -.032    .8    .31   -.07   .07   .06
Boris Diaw      75    8.3  -.014  -2.1    .13   -.02   .00   .02
Dante Exum      60   14.8   .080    .4    .57    .10   .04   .07
Derrick Favors  41   14.5   .009  -5.0    .72    .01  -.03   .06
George Hill     28    2.9  -.268  -6.8    .01   -.16  -.03   .00
Raul Neto       26   17.7   .198   2.6    .68    .11   .03   .04

. totals       943   11.8   .006   -.8    .62    .11   .29  1.21
Mike G
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Re: Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

Post by Mike G »

Rodney Hood followed a bad 1st round (PER 8.6, ws/48 .003, BPM -4.2) with an incredibly worse round 2 (-1.5, -.194, -8.2). And he consistently got 26 min/G. Yet he doesn't qualify for worst BPM over most minutes nor one of the 15 lowest VORP in a postseason.
Here's a partial list of those guys:

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-BPM @ min.      yr   tm   Min   BPM  VORP
Tim Hardaway    2001  Mia   36  -19.6  -.2
Michael Doleac  1999  Orl   43  -16.3  -.2
Marc Jackson    2005  Phl   65  -14.4  -.2
Shawn Kemp      2003  Orl   72  -14.1  -.2
J.J. Barea      2016  Dal  100  -12.2  -.3
Todd Fuller     1999  Uta  105  -11.0  -.2
Troy Hudson     2002  Orl  106  -10.7  -.2
Andre Drummond  2016  Det  131  -10.1  -.3
Armen Gilliam   2000  Uta  132  - 9.9  -.3
Stephon Marbury 2009  Bos  166  - 9.2  -.3
Jim Paxson      1988  Bos  188  - 9.1  -.3
M Landsberger   1980  LAL  195  - 8.4  -.3
Tom Chambers    1993  Phx  376  - 8.0  -.6
Eddie Johnson   1993  Sea  382  - 6.2  -.4
I'm arbitrarily stopping here. Chambers and EJ had switched teams in the early 90's. But TC'93 does sport the biggest negative VORP in the 3-pt era.
http://bkref.com/tiny/RSJVD
Oh yeah, Hood had 277 min @ -5.7 BPM, vorp = -.16; hardly in Chambers' class.
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