Raptors

[Crow]

GM Ujiri says team needs to change style of play. They get to line strongly but are very low on shots within 3 feet and from 3 pt land. Yeah, change needed.

[Crow]

Only 11th best regular season record against top 10.

Player playoff stats unacceptable in most cases Need massive changes. Will it start at Coach? Will see sone unwanted changes at player direction that will some or a lot.

I'll probably do more analysis on them later.

[jgoldstein34]

I don't want to read too far into what Ujiri said, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them blow it up really. He has a history of not liking to settle on a team that isn't good enough to win a chip. Not sure how much trade value DeRozan has, but he's probably worth a decent 1st round pick and some filler guys. With both conferences having a dominant team right now, I think blowing it up and rebuilding to be good in 3-5 years is the right move for most teams. If they want to win 50 games each year and pay a ton in luxury tax that can bring everyone back, but I just don't see that being the outcome. Who knows, Ujiri is a great gm so maybe he can swing some trade to get a player who can shoot 3s at will and they'll finally fit together and be a real contender. They were ready to blow it all up a few years ago when they trade Rudy Gay, just weirdly turned into a contender.

[Dr Positivity]

I don't want to read too far into what Ujiri said, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them blow it up really. He has a history of not liking to settle on a team that isn't good enough to win a chip. Not sure how much trade value DeRozan has, but he's probably worth a decent 1st round pick and some filler guys. With both conferences having a dominant team right now, I think blowing it up and rebuilding to be good in 3-5 years is the right move for most teams. If they want to win 50 games each year and pay a ton in luxury tax that can bring everyone back, but I just don't see that being the outcome. Who knows, Ujiri is a great gm so maybe he can swing some trade to get a player who can shoot 3s at will and they'll finally fit together and be a real contender. They were ready to blow it all up a few years ago when they trade Rudy Gay, just weirdly turned into a contender.

There is a version where they bring back Lowry, Derozan and Ibaka but stay under the lux tax depending on whether they find teams to take some of these other contracts. Joseph and Valanciunas is 23 million they can live without. Joseph is the 56th ranked PG in RPM, probably a decent chance whoever's best of Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet next year can live up to his meh production, and it's worth the shot they're better. Valanciunas is 34th in RPM for Cs and doesn't fit Lowry and Derozan that well, his skillset compared to Bebe and Poeltl of creating more offense isn't used that well on a team with ultra high usage backcourt, while Poeltl and Bebe are better defenders who's offense is high efficiency finishing. Overall giving the spot to Poeltl who looked like a young Amir Johnson this year seems like it could turn out better as early as next year.

Overall I would probably trade Derozan, I think he is at the heart of why they're a predictable 1 on 1 team in the playoffs, and if you put floor spacing in his place beside the strong 3pt shooter that Lowry is, it would change the offense. I don't think hoping a new coach can change how the Lowry and Derozan combo is guarded in the playoffs is the answer

[JoshEngleman]

I don't want to read too far into what Ujiri said, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them blow it up really. He has a history of not liking to settle on a team that isn't good enough to win a chip. Not sure how much trade value DeRozan has, but he's probably worth a decent 1st round pick and some filler guys. With both conferences having a dominant team right now, I think blowing it up and rebuilding to be good in 3-5 years is the right move for most teams. If they want to win 50 games each year and pay a ton in luxury tax that can bring everyone back, but I just don't see that being the outcome. Who knows, Ujiri is a great gm so maybe he can swing some trade to get a player who can shoot 3s at will and they'll finally fit together and be a real contender. They were ready to blow it all up a few years ago when they trade Rudy Gay, just weirdly turned into a contender.

There is a version where they bring back Lowry, Derozan and Ibaka but stay under the lux tax depending on whether they find teams to take some of these other contracts. Joseph and Valanciunas is 23 million they can live without. Joseph is the 56th ranked PG in RPM, probably a decent chance whoever's best of Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet next year can live up to his meh production, and it's worth the shot they're better. Valanciunas is 34th in RPM for Cs and doesn't fit Lowry and Derozan that well, his skillset compared to Bebe and Poeltl of creating more offense isn't used that well on a team with ultra high usage backcourt, while Poeltl and Bebe are better defenders who's offense is high efficiency finishing. Overall giving the spot to Poeltl who looked like a young Amir Johnson this year seems like it could turn out better as early as next year.

Overall I would probably trade Derozan, I think he is at the heart of why they're a predictable 1 on 1 team in the playoffs, and if you put floor spacing in his place beside the strong 3pt shooter that Lowry is, it would change the offense. I don't think hoping a new coach can change how the Lowry and Derozan combo is guarded in the playoffs is the answer

The question then becomes, what do you do to fill out the team? I can't imagine Lowry coming back if you trade DeRozan. The bigger issue in all of this is actually getting a future free agent to come to Toronto. They are in a really tough spot right now. They don't really have a path to the top or the bottom.

[Dr Positivity]

A post I made on RealGM on what the Raptors would do if they went all in on how RPM rates their players

Clearly it's not as simple as saying either stats or eye test is what we should follow, but just an exercise, here is how our summer would go if we treated RPM as gospel:

Resigning Lowry and Patterson is the biggest priority

Lowry ranks 4th for PGs and 10th in the league. Patterson rates 10th for PFs and 43rd in the league. Last year Lowry was 4th for PGs and 7th in the league, Patterson was 17th for PFs and 59th in the league. Patterson is a 28 year old who by RPM's analysis is going to come at a bargain price this summer making it an easy choice to resign him.

Let Ibaka walk

Ibaka is only rated 25th for PFs in the league and 109th overall in the league. Last year he was 25th for PFs and 103rd in the league. RPM certainly does not suggest paying Ibaka between 25-30 mil a year so he can take minutes from the higher rated player in Patterson.

Shop Derozan and Valanciunas, possibly Joseph

Derozan ranks 24th for SGs and 141st in the league. Last year he was 23rd for SGs and 157th in the league. Like Ibaka this is not a good use of assets to pay him 28 mil a year. Powell was 31st in RPM this year for SGs and 32nd last year. He could be on his way to Derozan level in RPM for much smaller price. Trading Derozan could give the Raptors great assets in return as well.

Valanciunas is 34th for Cs, 29th last year. Bebe ranks 5th in Cs for RPM, although it's just a thousand minutes, RPM suggests giving that a chance to see if it's real is probably a decent move for a team starved for upside like ours. Poeltl's rating is just ok (50th) but 600 minutes and most rookies are poor in +/- stats, as a top 10 pick he has the upside to be better than JV's current rating for sure.

Joseph ranks 56th in PGs but was a more respectable 31st last year for his salary, considering his defensive play after Ibaka trade if that's more of the real him it's reasonable to keep his salary, but with Delon and FVV coming in it makes a lot of sense to just trade him for capspace too

Keep both Carroll and Tucker unless a big FA opportunity comes up

Carroll rates 21st for SFs and was 27th last year. Tucker is 19th and was 26th last year. If we lose Ibaka we are free to spend some money on solid if unspectacular players. Carroll may be overpaid but at some point it's not a sure thing we can do better.

Use freed up money and assets to target undervalued players

Without the Ibaka contract and possibly players like Derozan, Valanciunas, Joseph traded the Raptors can look to free agency to fill holes or the trade market and maybe target players like Ingles or Dedmon. Ingles rates 13th for SFs, if he was listed at SGs he would be 6th. Going by RPM a lineup like this would be surprisingly good:

Lowry/Wright/FVV
Ingles/Powell
Carroll/Tucker
Patterson/Siakam
Poeltl/Bebe

I don't know if they should do this or not, since a mix of stats and analysis is probably the best method, but it shows the Raptors have some interesting decisions to make in regards to whether to trust stats like RPM or BPM, or to still believe in the old school evaluation of players like Derozan and Valanciunas and "creating your own shot"

[jgoldstein34]

As much as DeRozan is the problem (the team has been better with him off the court for each of the past 5 seasons), he's also best friends with Lowry and I'd be shocked if he comes back if the trade DeRozan. That being said, if they offer him the 5 year max, will be hard for him to turn down.

I think no matter what, they just need to trade CoJo and Valanciunas. Those guys are both replaceable and being paid more than the Raptors can afford.

If they want to keep this going, win 50 games the next few years and be a faux-contender, they absolutely can. Nothing wrong with being a good team that's enjoyable to watch. I don't know if that's enough for Ujiri though, doesn't seem like that kind of GM.

[Crow]

I looked at DeRozan trades with Atlanta, Denver and LAL but Ujiri probably isn't going to try it or get enough to accept.

I think he'll try:

Keep Lowry, Patterson, Ibaka
Trade JVal, Carroll, Joseph

[jgoldstein34]

If there was ever a time to trade DeRozan, it's now after his 3rd team all-NBA. I can't imagine his value getting any higher.

[shadow]

If there was ever a time to trade DeRozan, it's now after his 3rd team all-NBA. I can't imagine his value getting any higher.

Probably true. Even though he doesn't deserve to even be on the 5th team if you watch him play defense. Harden gets ridiculed for his defensive effort (and rightly so), but DeRozan's DRPM this year was -2.08 to Harden's -1.58. There's enough noise in DRPM on a single year basis that it's hard to say if DeRozan is actually worse than Harden, but it's probably safe to say he's in the same ballpark, considering he was also a -2.47 in DRPM last year.

[jgoldstein34]

Agreed, I don't understand why he doesn't have to deal with nearly as much criticism. He's a good player during the regular season, meh during the playoffs. Awful at defense. I think it doesn't come up as much as with Harden because DeRozan doesn't have nearly as much obvious defensive mistakes where the effort level is clearly not there. Him making an all-NBA team was the only glaring issue I had with them this season. But if people really believe his value is that high, now is the time to cash in.

[JoshEngleman]

Agreed, I don't understand why he doesn't have to deal with nearly as much criticism. He's a good player during the regular season, meh during the playoffs. Awful at defense. I think it doesn't come up as much as with Harden because DeRozan doesn't have nearly as much obvious defensive mistakes where the effort level is clearly not there. Him making an all-NBA team was the only glaring issue I had with them this season. But if people really believe his value is that high, now is the time to cash in.

He plays in Toronto. No one cares about Canada.

[jgoldstein34]

He plays in Toronto. No one cares about Canada.

Honestly this could really be a factor sad as it may be.

[Dr Positivity]

Lillard and Isaiah's defense doesn't get treated as badly as Harden's either.

[jgoldstein34]

Nor does Westbrook's, especially not among the average fan. Very odd to see how Harden gets picked on, probably because people don't like his style of play on offense.