Pistons

[jgoldstein34]

Pistons had what most considered to be a really disappointing season, only winning 37 games after winning 44 in 2015-16 and 32 in 2014-15. I think the question is which season was the outlier. Was 2015-16 a combination of virtually every guy have a career year, or was Reggie Jackson getting hurt this season really worth 7 wins? They seem to have a lot of guys who you'd want as the 3-5th best player on your team, so maybe there's a trade market for a few of them.

With $96 million already committed for next season, assuming Aaron Baynes opts out and they decline the team option on Darrun Hilliard, what can they reasonably do to improve? Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is probably going to get near-max or the max this off-season, so they won't have cap space anytime soon to sign anyone. They'll probably have the 12th pick in the draft which is fine, but isn't likely to hit on a future star. Is the best move for them to try and trade Reggie Jackson and the pick this year to try and move up in the draft?

[Crow]

In 2015-16 they were a leading Moreyball team. In 2016-17 they changed away from that to the very bottom part of that scale. If they knowingly changed, wooh. If it accidentally happened, whoops. If the defenses forced the change, not good.

Swapping Ish Smith for Steve Bkake might have seemed alright or good but it was a step away from Moreyball. Lose Ilyasova and Tolliver more steps away. Drummond shooting less free throws another big step away. Other changes probably contributed.

Reggie was a bold Stan / Jeff move that seemed too bold to me. But the move away from Moreyball is the bigger even harder to understand deal. How did it happen? Absolutely have to reverse it. Did SVG miss what he was doing? And nobody stopped him? He comes off super sure of himself (to me) and he has acted like he had "analytics" under control or "pegged" but sure didn't turn out that way this season.

This isn't a full analysis. Another detail that bugged me though was the criminal under-utilization of Marjanovic. I could be wrong but I would have played him 2-3 times more or until it was proven to not work. Stanley Johnson seems like a total dud on offense as well. On defense they only did half the job, the most passive things (rebound and don't foul). They need to become above average at either contesting shots / forcing less good ones or forcing turnovers. There may be issues with personnel and schemes. Either way or both, the basic problems remain same as year before. Not a good sign.

It seemed like SVG and Jeff Bower were among the most sure on their flurry of committing moves. Looking at them one by one they probably should undo almost all of them. They'll re-sign Pope and that move will push them further in the cap bind. Can they change the style of play without changing the roster or without being changed out themselves? I am skeptical but they probably get 1-2 years chance. My gut says they screwed it so badly they both lose their jobs and it takes 5-10 years to come back to anything above meh.

[jgoldstein34]

They went from having the 9th highest Morey Index [ (3PA+FTA)/FGA ] in 2015-16 to the 30th lowest in 2016-17 so the numbers back up what you're saying. Drummond's free throw rate plummeted from .553 to .390. Especially with how bad he is a FT shooting, if he's not getting there a ton he becomes bad real fast. Their defense also got worse at limiting Moreyball shots, going from 2nd last year to 7th this year; still good, but with the amount they dropped on O any slip on D is a killer.

The slip on D isn't necessarily predictive of anything, it isn't very far. On O, is that drop really the difference between Reggie Jackson being the solid starting PG he was in 2015-16 and Ish Smith in 2016-17? I'm not sure I'd buy that, especially with the team being +5.3 points per 100 this season better with him on vs off. NBAwowy and the Impact stats on NBA.com aren't working for me so I can't check how the Morey Index changes with him on vs off to see if he was that much of a drag.

This team just seems a little doomed to mediocrity. They're young enough that they can reasonably expect internal development, but even if everyone improves, within reason, they're a high 40's win team in my view. Obviously if Drummond magically comes back next year and can actually score in the post, not likely, they'd be a lot better. When do they get to the point where they tell him he's not getting any post touches? If he goes back to the lob threat role on offense, the team would automatically be better. He averaged 0.73 points per possession in the post this past year (and 0.73 last year!), 1.06 (1.10 last year) as a roll man. 1.06 isn't great, it was 57th percentile, but it's way better than 0.73. He's just really, really bad at it. I get they built him up to be the next Dwight Howard, but it's just not accurate at all. I honestly think them telling Drummond he's not getting a post up would do so many good things for their offense.

As expensive as Pope is going to be, if they genuinely think this core has a chance they have to bring him back at all costs. And that's really it, that's all they can do outside of a trade or minimum contracts/exceptions. Not going to get many impact players with that being the best you can do, just ask the Clippers.

[Dr Positivity]

Decline of Reggie is where I'd start, from their best-ish player last year, to someone that was killing them this year both because of lower boxscore numbers and chemistry problems. Overall I don't like their situation, as none of their players are that great. KCP seems like he should be an analytics friendly 3 and D guy but when you look at closer at his numbers, 29th in SGs for RPM, .086 WS/48, 0.9 BPM it's not max worthy. I thought Stan was going to build this team of 3pt shooters around Drummond but somewhere along the way the Pistons got suckered into this team of shot creating perimeter guys in Jackson, Harris, Morris.

[Mike G]

They went from having the 9th highest Morey Index [ (3PA+FTA)/FGA ] in 2015-16 to the 30th lowest in 2016-17...

Wouldn't 30th lowest be 1st/highest?

Drummond's free throw rate plummeted from .553 to .390.

His FT% got steadily worse, as his FTA/36 remained about the same all year.

Code: Select all

2016-17   mpg    FT%  FT/36
Oct-Dec   30.0   .455   5.4
Jan-Feb   31.1   .378   5.1
Mar-Apr   27.8   .278   5.3

Perhaps those late-season FTA were a lot of deliberate fouls, since it's better to hack a 30% shooter.

Decline of Reggie is where I'd start, from their best-ish player last year...

Well this year it would have been Ish Smith. (sorry)
Or call him Ishmael; his 81 games with Det are the most he's played with any franchise. He's done 10 teams in 7 years, plus a 2nd term in Philly.

[Dr Positivity]

Ish had .076 WS/48, -0.8 BPM, is 21st (0.53) for PGs in RPM. Jackson in 2016 had .136 WS/48, 2.3 BPM, was 15th in PGs (1.45) for RPM. Ish was a good passer but the combination of inefficiency (.477 TS) and non 3pt shooting (.267) is a tough combination to work around at PG nowadays

[jgoldstein34]

They went from having the 9th highest Morey Index [ (3PA+FTA)/FGA ] in 2015-16 to the 30th lowest in 2016-17...

Wouldn't 30th lowest be 1st/highest?

Haha yes I suppose I phrased it wrong, they had the lowest Morey Index in the league this year. Dead last.

I do expect Reggie Jackson to bounce back a bit, my projection system going from being a -2.6 this past season to -0.7 next year. I do think it's underselling him a little bit because so much of his decline last season was due to injury, but if he can't get back or close to the +2.3 he was 2 years ago this team is already dead in the water. They really need him driving to the rim constantly to open up 3's for teammates and getting Drummond more shots in the flow of the offense.

If they resign Pope and don't make any other major moves, my system has them as a 39 win team. That number will change a bunch as other teams sign players, but is that a playoff team? Maybe the 8th seed? Without major improvement from someone, I just can't see this core group ever getting anywhere.

Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Ish Smith seem to be the best trade candidates to me. Maybe Caldwell-Pope, but with the amount he's expected to get paid it'll be a tough sell to a team. Ish and Morris are both making ~$6 million for the next 2 years and are good role players to a contending team. Harris is making ~$16 million the next 2 years, a bit more but I think he's the best of the three and the youngest so he still offers a bit of upside at just 24.

[Mike G]

Maybe Caldwell-Pope, but with the amount he's expected to get paid it'll be a tough sell to a team.

Why is a player expected to get more than he's worth? Is he only worth this much to one team, specifically the Pistons?

While I never, ever, ever indulge in trade speculation, I do find intriguing the logic that goes into it. Why do we expect a player to be offered more than NBA teams think he is worth? Isn't this self-contradictory?

[JoshEngleman]

Maybe Caldwell-Pope, but with the amount he's expected to get paid it'll be a tough sell to a team.

Why is a player expected to get more than he's worth? Is he only worth this much to one team, specifically the Pistons?

While I never, ever, ever indulge in trade speculation, I do find intriguing the logic that goes into it. Why do we expect a player to be offered more than NBA teams think he is worth? Isn't this self-contradictory?

I think this is referred to as the "It Only Takes One Butthead" rule. *edited for language, just in case

[Crow]

This usage seems mild, so no big deal, imo. Cursing AT someone here wouldn't be acceptable. I probably shouldn't have used wt* casually in this thread to express disapproval. It is probably better if it does not become commonplace as then less mild usages might creep in. So I'll edit my earlier post to restore discipline to myself.

[Mike G]

So to clarify, is it that one "butthead" GM overpays one middling player, and it raises the potential salary of many more players?
And does this lead team managements to believe that their options are either to seriously overpay some guys, or blow up the team and start over from the fragments?

[Crow]

Yes and yes. Many GMs overpay their own free agents in RFA match situations (keep him vs. lose for "nothing", sometimes true even for replacements due to cap operations) or try to overpay to get someone to come to a meh or bad team or perceived unattractive city or an uncertain role. When these things happen it raises tha asking price for others in similar situations.

Stan & Jeff trade for Reggie then pay him big. Max Drummond to keep him. Will overpay KCP to keep him. Paid Baynes and then Marjanovic more than anybody else would to come to Detroit and a not so attractive role. "If they got that, we should try for..." It doesn't work for everyone but it works for guys / agents until the fluid money runs out.

[jgoldstein34]

Specifically for Pope, wing scarcity makes it more likely he gets a big contract. Also the fact that the Pistons have no way to replace him if they lose him. He also has "potential" because he's only 23. Pretty much everything that can drive up a players value is working to help Pope. I really would not be shocked if he somehow ends up with a max this off-season, just takes 1 GM to fall in love with him.

[Crow]

The Griz takeover next season as the team who will be paying the most money to a guy with a horrible RPM last season (Parsons) from Phil and the Knicks (Rose). If KCP gets over $20 mil / yr he'll vie with teammate Drummond for second worst RPM amongst players scheduled to make over $20 mil. Pistons will join Thunder as only other team (so far) with 2 guys going to make over $20 mil / yr while posting less than plus 2 last season (Oladipo and Adams, though they rose from bad starts to almost plus 2). Other guys in this dubious buy category are DeRozan, Anthony & Howard. There are too many bad or at least not good contracts over $15 mil / yr for me to recite.

[JoshEngleman]

So to clarify, is it that one "butthead" GM overpays one middling player, and it raises the potential salary of many more players?
And does this lead team managements to believe that their options are either to seriously overpay some guys, or blow up the team and start over from the fragments?

Basically, yeah. If the Nets go to $20m on KCP and the Pistons wanted $15m, KCP is getting $20m regardless, but his true value is likely still lower. It's basically an inflationary piece of being an RFA. Then, just from the Nets being willing to go to $20m, other guys can use KCP @ $20m as a comp.