Playoff notes and summaries, 2017

[Mike G]

Playoff leaders thru the conference finals. Ranked by xyzWins, the average of Win Shares and 'wins' suggested by PER, BPM, and fauxRPM (another of my contrivances).

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xyzW     Player        tm   Min   WS/48   PER   BPM  fRPM
3.00   LeBron James   CLE   532   .299   30.4  11.0   9.5
2.46   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   429   .316   31.7  11.3   8.4
2.19   Stephen Curry  GSW   412   .287   27.9  11.3   7.8
2.08   Draymond Green GSW   416   .264   21.3  11.0  10.1
1.97   Al Horford     BOS   610   .165   20.2   4.6   2.9

1.62   John Wall      WAS   507   .138   23.1   4.2   2.6
1.54   James Harden   HOU   407   .159   23.2   7.9   4.4
1.49   Kevin Durant   GSW   334   .256   25.1   7.1   5.8
1.49   Kyrie Irving   CLE   452   .193   22.6   1.9   2.8
1.42   Kevin Love     CLE   417   .198   19.7   3.5   4.0

xyzW     Player        tm   Min   WS/48   PER   BPM  fRPM
1.31   Otto Porter    WAS   428   .165   16.6   3.1   4.7
1.31   Chris Paul     LAC   260   .248   28.0  12.2   6.2
1.29 Tristan Thompson CLE   429   .188   15.4   3.8   2.9
1.29   Jae Crowder    BOS   596   .108   14.6    .7   1.4
1.25   Gordon Hayward UTA   411   .143   20.8   4.1   2.1

1.24   Bradley Beal   WAS   505   .113   18.1   1.1   1.8
1.03   Isaiah Thomas  BOS   521   .078   18.2   -.3   -.2
1.03   Clint Capela   HOU   286   .199   21.2   4.2   4.6
.95    Mike Conley    MEM   224   .205   27.6   8.5   3.6
.91 Russell Westbrook OKC   194   .107   27.9  13.1   9.6

Westbrook has .43 WS and 1.18 bpm-wins
fRPM has best correlation with the average; PER has the weakest.
All 4 are scaled to 75 total wins.

[Crow]

Only 3 lineups have been used 100 plus minutes in playoffs. Wiz' starters best, then Cavs starters. Both outstanding at near 20 minutes per game. Good job, coaches. Houston's starters sucked at around a 100 minutes but at least they tried.

10 teams had a lineup over 50 minutes total, some multiples. Everybody could / probably have gotten there but 6 coaches didn't. The 4 conference finalists all did, everybody but Cavs at least twice. Celtics lead with two over 50 that were negative. GSW and Spurs had negative ones as well. GSW with the best over 50. Not the death lineup, the starters. Houston's great (2nd best overall) lineup was starters with Lou Williams over Harden. Huh.

Last season Cavs had 3 of the 4 best over 50 minutes and GSW peaked at 9th place.

[Crow]

The teams whose coach didn't play any lineup over 50 minutes are Utah, Chi, LAC, IND, Toronto and Portland. 4 lost in first round, mostly badly and 2 lost in second round. Low lineup concentration, low hope.

[Mike G]

The 106 FGA put up by the Dubs last night are the most in a non-overtime playoff game since 1988; around which time this sort of behavior abruptly stopped.
http://bkref.com/tiny/ZdvSi

In a game against the Nuggets in 1985, the Lakers attempted 10 more and missed 22 fewer, winning 153-109.
Of 9 teams to try 100 FGA in this century, just 3 have won the game.
Dubs only team ever to shoot 100 times with at least 30 being threes, and win, PS/non-OT

[Crow]

Mike, where did J Butler and P George rank on your recent shown above combined metric list? We know it wasn't top 20.

Hayward 15th, right behind Crowder. Replace Crowder on court or play much with him? Anybody notice / get concerned about his horrendous playoff on the on court and on / off raw plus minus 2 years running? Or is the narrative set that he is the "perfect" acquisition for Celtics? Or is Quinn Snyder at fault instead of or also? Box score metrics had him at horrendous overall in 2016 playoffs, modestly above average this time but way below regular season level. $30 mil. / yr? I'd think long & hard about that. And probably say no. If he did get $30 mil., he'd be fighting Brook Lopez for third place for worst next season salary to trailing RPM ratio among RPM's top 60 players at about 10mil / point. Second, Whiteside. Who is worst? Al Horford by a very substantial difference (close to 15 -1). The only way this is tolerable is with the super values for Thomas & Crowder. When that changes, boy will it change. Retain anybody else? Hello huge, sustained tax payments.

Wall and Beal are near the bottom of that group too.

[Mike G]

Butler is #37, George 49.
The Pacers of course only played 4 games, and 86 guys have more minutes than PG.
Not counting the Finals underway, top 20 in per-game xyzWins:

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W/G      Player      tm   G  WS/48   PER   BPM   fRPM
.231   LeBron James CLE   13  .299   30.4  11.0   9.5
.205  Kawhi Leonard SAS   12  .316   31.7  11.3   8.4
.187   Chris Paul   LAC    7  .248   28.0  12.2   6.2
.182  Stephen Curry GSW   12  .287   27.9  11.3   7.8
.182   R Westbrook  OKC    5  .107   27.9  13.1   9.6

.173 Draymond Green GSW   12  .264   21.3  11.0  10.1
.159   Mike Conley  MEM    6  .205   27.6   8.5   3.6
.149   Kevin Durant GSW   10  .256   25.1   7.1   5.8
.145   Giannis A    MIL    6  .139   22.0   5.7   6.0
.140   James Harden HOU   11  .159   23.2   7.9   4.4

W/G      Player      tm   G  WS/48   PER   BPM   fRPM
.136   Paul George  IND    4  .132   21.1   4.3   3.6
.130   D Schroder   ATL    6  .227   22.7   5.4   2.2
.130   Paul Millsap ATL    6  .163   21.4   5.5   5.0
.125   John Wall    WAS   13  .138   23.1   4.2   2.6
.114   Kyrie Irving CLE   13  .193   22.6   1.9   2.8

.114 Gordon Hayward UTA   11  .143   20.8   4.1   2.1
.110   Al Horford   BOS   18  .165   20.2   4.6   2.9
.109   Kevin Love   CLE   13  .198   19.7   3.5   4.0
.108   Jimmy Butler CHI    6  .116   19.5   1.6   3.0
.101   Otto Porter  WAS   13  .165   16.6   3.1   4.7
.100   T Thompson   CLE   13  .188   15.4   3.8   2.9

ok 21

Players with least universal agreement among these stats, ranked by total difference from their average.

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var      Player        tm   WS   perW  bpmW   frW
1.21  Draymond Green  GSW  2.29  1.47  2.24  2.32
1.19   Avery Bradley  BOS   .22   .92   .63  1.11
1.16   Kyrie Irving   CLE  1.82  1.74  1.07  1.32
1.00   Joe Ingles     UTA   .44   .34   .96   .82

.95 Russell Westbrook OKC   .43   .98  1.18  1.04
.89   Isaiah Thomas   BOS   .85  1.48   .86   .96
.88   Kawhi Leonard   SAS  2.82  2.54  2.35  2.13
.86   Danny Green     SAS   .45   .38  1.03   .67

.83   J.R. Smith      CLE   .73   .25   .92   .76
.82   Zach Randolph   MEM  -.19   .25  -.19   .18
.82   Marcus Smart    BOS   .50   .74  1.10   .97
.81   DeMar DeRozan   TOR   .48   .93   .51   .87

Win Shares likes Kawhi and Kyrie; dislikes Bradley, Westbrook, Isaiah, Smart, DeRozan
PER likes Zach, DeRozan, and especially Isaiah; disses Danny Green, Ingles, J.R., and esp. Draymond.
BPM boosts Ingles, Westbrook, Smart, J.R. and esp. Danny; quite unimpressed by Kyrie.
fauxRPM likes Draymond and Avery Bradley a lot more; loves Kawhi less than the rest.

[Mike G]

After 2 games of the Finals, GS winning by 20.5 ppg, extracted stats look like this:

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. Warriors    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Kevin Durant   79   35.1   .414  17.6   .68   .39
Klay Thompson  74    7.8   .088    .6   .14   .05
Stephen Curry  71   28.7   .322  15.4   .48   .31
Draymond Green 60    8.6   .074   2.3   .09   .06
Andre Iguodala 53   11.7   .167   5.3   .18   .10

S Livingston   34    9.7   .119  -2.2   .08   .00
Ian Clark      31   10.8   .117   -.1   .08   .02
Zaza Pachulia  28   13.6   .174   3.1   .10   .04
David West     19    7.7   .101  -1.2   .04   .00
Patrick McCaw  11   -1.4  -.003  -8.6   .00  -.02

. totals      480   17.1   .202   6.2  2.03   .99
                  

. Cavs        min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
LeBron James   80   26.6   .131  13.3   .22   .31
Kyrie Irving   75   10.0  -.130  -4.4  -.20  -.05
Kevin Love     64   24.2   .138   -.3   .18   .03
Tr Thompson    44    7.9  -.070  -3.7  -.06  -.02
Kyle Korver    43    6.6   .015  -2.4   .01   .00

J.R. Smith     42   -7.4  -.225 -11.7  -.20  -.10
Iman Shumpert  38    8.8  -.002  -5.4   .00  -.03
Deron Williams 33   -9.2  -.298 -11.9  -.20  -.08
R Jefferson    28   12.4   .085  -3.7   .05  -.01
Channing Frye  11   -4.5  -.281 -18.7  -.06  -.05

. totals      480   11.6  -.018  -2.2  -.18  -.02

http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... s_advanced
In another thread, see eWins. In putting up today's numbers, I wondered if JR Smith could really be so bad as to produce minus-.10 eWins. In fact, his WinShares are .20 less than they were after the ECF.

So it goes, down the line. LeBron has .31 vorp, and the rest of his team totals -.33; he and Love total .40 WS, everyone else pitches in -.58
The combined (both teams) PER is 14.3, so everyone is undervalued in that column. Total BPM (corrected for strength of opponent) is +2.0 -- and still, only LeBron measures up as above-avg for Cle.

If JR and DWill don't improve, they have the 2 worst cumulative GameScores in Finals history.
http://bkref.com/tiny/RBb8o
Last year, a few Cavs were almost this bad, and Lue stopped playing them.

[Mike G]

Near monotonic increase of Finals proficiency for LeBron James, according to GameScore.

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. yr   G    Min    Pts    Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk   TO   GmSc
2007   4   42.5   22.0    7.0   6.8   1.0   .5   5.8   10.6

2011   6   43.7   17.8    7.2   6.8   1.7   .5   4.0   13.7
2012   5   44.0   28.6   10.2   7.4   1.6   .4   3.8   23.6
2013   7   43.0   25.3   10.9   7.0   2.3   .9   2.6   22.5
2014   5   37.8   28.2    7.8   4.0   2.0   .4   3.8   22.5

2015   6   45.7   35.8   13.3   8.8   1.3   .5   3.5   24.6
2016   7   41.7   29.7   11.3   8.9   2.6  2.3   4.4   26.5
2017 * 2   39.5   28.5   13.0  11.0   1.5  1.5   6.0   26.0

These are per-game averages.
Last night's G2 exertion was his 3rd best Finals GmSc in 42 games, after G 5 and 6 last year.
http://bkref.com/tiny/YsQnR

Best Finals GmSc since 1984:

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per G:  yr     Pts    Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk   TO    GmSc
Shaq   2000   38.0   16.7   2.3   1.0   2.7   2.2   30.6
Shaq   2002   36.3   12.3   3.8    .5   2.8   3.5   30.1
Jordan 1993   41.0    8.5   6.3   1.7    .7   2.7   29.6
Jordan 1991   31.2    6.6  11.4   2.8   1.4   3.6   29.4
Magic  1987   26.2    8.0  13.0   2.3    .3   2.2   28.3

Shaq   2001   33.0   15.8   4.8    .4   3.4   4.0   27.4
LeBron 2016   29.7   11.3   8.9   2.6   2.3   4.4   26.5
Jordan 1992   35.8    4.8   6.5   1.7    .3   4.0   25.8
Wade   2006   34.7    7.8   3.8   2.7   1.0   3.7   25.4
LeBron 2015   35.8   13.3   8.8   1.3    .5   3.5   24.6

Hakeem 1995   32.8   11.5   5.5   2.0   2.0   2.8   24.5
Magic  1988   21.1    5.7  13.0   2.0    .1   2.7   24.4
Duncan 2003   24.2   17.0   5.3   1.0   5.3   3.8   24.1
Bird   1986   24.0    9.7   9.5   2.7    .3   2.7   23.9
Bird   1984   27.4   14.0   3.6   2.1   1.1   3.6   23.7

Durant'17 ranks #1 (33.7) if we go with his 1st 2 games. Curry and LeBron would be #9-10.
http://bkref.com/tiny/S7UlH

[Mike G]

Game Score crudely captures player contributions; and b-r.com makes them available by game or playoff series.
After 3 games of these Finals:

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GmSc      Warriors      1     2     3
30.8  Kevin Durant    33.7  33.6  25.1
26.0  Stephen Curry   26.0  26.2  25.8
13.3  Klay Thompson     .6  16.8  22.4
8.3   Andre Iguodala   8.1   6.4  10.5
7.2   Draymond Green   5.6   9.6   6.3
3.7   Shaun Livingston 1.9   6.9   2.3
3.3   David West       -.2   4.0   6.0
3.1   JaVale McGee     6.1   1.9   1.2
2.9   Ian Clark        2.9   6.6   -.8
0.7   Zaza Pachulia    8.8    .0  -6.7
0.6   Patrick McCaw     .2    .3   1.3
            
GmSc       Cavs         1     2     3
28.1  LeBron James    19.1  32.8  32.4
15.6  Kevin Love      16.0  19.2  11.7
15.3  Kyrie Irving    11.6   9.8  24.4
3.5  Tristan Thompson  -.1   8.6   2.0
3.5   Kyle Korver      -.2   7.7   3.0
3.0   Iman Shumpert    2.7   6.4   -.2
2.3 Richard Jefferson  3.2   5.0  -1.3
1.8   J.R. Smith      -1.8  -3.0  10.3
-2.0  Deron Williams  -4.4    .1  -1.8

Astonishing consistency by Steph.
http://bkref.com/tiny/2t5DD
While I have thought 'strength in numbers' was a pretty lame slogan, it does seem that the Dubs can find 3 to 5 more productive players than the Cavs have, every night. In a series that's heavily reliant on star players, that seems to have made the difference in 2nd halves of games.

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avg   1st   2nd   3rd   4th
GSW    38    27    30    26
Cle    32    27    26    21
diff   6.0   -.3   4.3   5.3

[Mike G]

Finals MVP vote may well be tonight. LeBron holds a slim lead in series VORP, but that's all; and last 2 trips he almost doubled anyone else in that stat. Review of this 3-years war:

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xyz     2015      tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484    WS   vorp  eWin
1.41  LeBron     Cle   275   26.3   .156  13.7   2.84    .90  1.08  1.57
.93   Curry       GS   255   20.2   .156   6.5   2.09    .83   .54  1.07
.77   Iguodala    GS   223   18.0   .198   5.8   1.53    .92   .43   .69
.75   Green       GS   222   16.3   .176   6.3   1.56    .81   .46   .70

.47   Mozgov     Cle   169   21.5   .167   2.3   1.58    .59   .18   .54
.39  K. Thompson  GS   227   12.2   .106   1.3    .80    .50   .19   .37
.38  T. Thompson Cle   247   14.4   .122   -.3    .69    .63   .10   .34
                          
    
xyz     2016      tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484    WS   vorp  eWin
1.90  LeBron     Cle   292   31.6   .249  15.1   2.97   1.51  1.25  1.81
1.05  Green       GS   240   20.7   .208   8.7   1.76   1.04   .64   .88
.98   Irving     Cle   273   24.0   .177   4.8   1.85   1.01   .46  1.05

.59  T. Thompson Cle   226   17.9   .185   1.9   1.04    .87   .22   .49
.58   Curry       GS   246   16.8   .074   3.3   1.49    .38   .32   .76
.54   Iguodala    GS   239   14.0   .111   4.0    .76    .55   .36   .38
.44  K. Thompson  GS   247   15.4   .077   1.3    .99    .40   .21   .51
             
                 
xyz     2017      tm   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480    WS   vorp  eWin
.84   Durant      GS   120   31.6   .352  13.9   3.12    .88   .48   .78
.74   Curry       GS   110   28.0   .321  14.1   2.98    .74   .44   .68
.64   LeBron     Cle   125   28.3   .173  13.6   2.32    .45   .49   .60

.26  K. Thompson  GS   114   13.1   .151   2.2    .84    .36   .12   .20
.23   Iguodala    GS    82   12.7   .162   6.2    .62    .28   .17   .11
.22   Love       Cle   101   20.2   .111    .9   1.45    .23   .07   .31
.11   Green       GS    93    7.6   .040    .1    .82    .08   .05   .16
.04   Irving     Cle   119   14.9  -.028  -2.4    .89   -.07  -.01   .22
-.03 T. Thompson Cle    67    6.5  -.064  -1.4   -.12   -.09   .01  -.02

xyz is the avg of WS, eWins, and a scaled-up vorp.
The Big 3 here all rank in the top 10 best Finals ever by Game Score.

. . .

In 2015 Finals, Cavs were outscored by 25 in LeBron's 275 minutes on-court, or -4.4 per 48.
In 23.5 min without him, they were -18, which is -37 per 48.

Last year, +26 in 292 min. vs -22 in 44 LeBron-less min. Per48, that's +4.3 vs -24

This go-round, they're -26 in his 125 min, or -10.0 per 48. In his 19 resting minutes, they're -20, which is -51 per 48.
Given that games 1 and 2 each had 3-4 minutes of garbage time at the end (with little point-differential), his rest during competitive minutes have seen the Cavs go about -80 pts/48.

[Mike G]

Best Team Offensive Ratings in a Finals game, since 1984:

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ORtg    tm - opp   date    TS%   eFG%  ORb%   TO%
142.6  Cle - GSW  6-09-17  .681  .667  .314  .099
138.8  Bos - LAL  6-17-08  .634  .569  .341  .063
135.3  LAL - Bos  6-04-87  .671  .648  .200  .087
133.7  Bos - LAL  5-27-85  .655  .642  .325  .103
131.0  SAS - Mia  6-10-14  .711  .664  .192  .133

130.3  SAS - Mia  6-11-13  .586  .580  .413  .111
129.6  Dal - Mia  6-09-11  .692  .659  .129  .120
129.2  Ind - LAL  6-16-00  .716  .647  .222  .143
128.6  Chi - Por  6-03-92  .606  .588  .372  .098
128.4  LAL - Bos  6-02-85  .608  .563  .361  .097

The Warriors' best is game 4 last year, 128.2
The top 31 ORtg have all won their game.
http://bkref.com/tiny/pdRrs
One team has had a better eFG% in a Finals game: SAS vs Mia 2014 G1 -- .684, but with 5 OReb and 22 TO, ORtg = 119.5
In the last 50 Finals games (100 team-games, since 2009), Cavs' G4 ORb% and TO% both are within the top 20.

[Nathan]

The Warriors have been 28 points per 100 possessions better with Iguodala on the court this series. No other Warrior is even in the same galaxy; next best is Klay Thompson with the Warriors 12 points per 100 better with him on the court.

As crazy as it sounds, the 2015 finals MVP may again be the key to the series. The Warriors may need more from him in game 5 than the 21 minutes he played in game 4.

[Mike G]

Cavs w/wo LeBron thru 3 games:

they're -26 in his 125 min, or -10.0 per 48. In his 19 resting minutes, they're -20, which is -51 per 48.

In game 4, the Cavs were +32 in 41 LeBron min. So -11 in 5 pre-mop-up min.
Per48, that's +37.5 vs -106 ... or basically, off the charts.

The Warriors have been 28 points per 100 possessions better with Iguodala on the court this series.

They're also not great with any of their 3 bigs on the court, which is roughly the same conditions.
Cavs have started games pretty well and do worse as the game moves on. Iggy enters mid-stream in a pretty good position.
By starting and playing just 10-15 minutes, ZaZa is going against about 90% starters. For Iguodala minutes, I estimate almost half the Cavs on the floor are subs. And some of these guys are sub-subs, statistically.

It looks like game 7 has already happened, in game 3 -- Dubs scored last 11 points of the game, hit the go-ahead 3; and this time it's Iggy blocking LeBron's attempt.
Another historic parallel is that other best team in history, the '96 Bulls, going up 3-0 against a very good Sonics team. Then Jordan and Pippen faltered, and it was 3-2.

[Nathan]

Some of it has to do with playing the rare minutes LeBron rests, and playing against the Cavs' subs (though I don't think the Cavs' subs are quite as terrible as they've looked at times this series). You hit the nail on the head though about the Warriors being better when they go small. The gap between Iguodala and the other perimeter options (McCaw, Clark, Livingston) the Warriors have to pair with their big four is massive. Livingston in particular looks like a corpse defensively after being a difference maker on that end just a year ago.

[Mike G]

Other than their big 3, all Cle players look very bad over 4 games.

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. Cavs        min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480   WS   vorp    eW
LeBron James  166   27.9   .202  12.7   2.48   .70   .61   .86
Kyrie Irving  160   19.2   .059   1.5   1.32   .20   .14   .44
Kevin Love    131   22.2   .165   3.5   1.67   .45   .18   .46
J.R. Smith    105    6.5   .001  -1.3   -.24   .00   .02  -.05
Tr Thompson   103    7.7  -.003   1.7    .03  -.01   .10   .01

Kyle Korver    78    5.4   .012  -2.4   -.32   .02  -.01  -.05
R Jefferson    66    9.1   .059  -2.3    .07   .08  -.01   .01
Iman Shumpert  62    8.8   .027  -3.3    .18   .04  -.02   .02
Deron Williams 49   -6.5  -.252 -11.2   -.68  -.26  -.11  -.07

Small positives in one stat or another are overwhelmed by large negative / sub-replacement values. Players 4 thru 9 all seem to have one skill or less. They're well past their prime or never had one, yet called upon for major minutes in the Finals.
And Tristan Thompson..? The guys joked and then apologized over "Kardashian curse".