Final rush of draft chat

[Crow]

Could Magic mess with Ainge and take Jackson? If he does, would Ainge take Ball and use him at SG some or trade him to Suns for another supplement and then take Tatum or Fox? Or trade down again?

[jgoldstein34]

In my view, I think the Celtics trade down again. If the Kings are still willing to do 5 and 10 for 3, I'd do it in a heartbeat. That being said, if Ball is available at 3 you take him and laugh all the way to the bank.

[Crow]

Pelton on a podcast threw some cold water on the idea that this is a great draft... by his analytic work. I dunno know the numbers or videos in depth but I am generally skeptical when the media & insiders get revved up about draft classes.

[Warthog]

Running through all 4 existing models of the draft pick trade value simulator, this is the expected value for the 3rd pick, and 5th + 10th pick:

3rd pick value:
73.98, 66.75, 72.75, 87.66

5th + 10th pick value:
107.35, 99.00, 113.25, 129.18

All 4 models heavily, heavily favor the 5+10 pick over the 3 pick. In fact, all 4 models consider a combination of the 5th and 30th picks as more valuable than the 3rd pick.

[sndesai1]

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts
i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract

i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i would definitely do

[JoshEngleman]

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts
i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract

i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i would definitely do

I touched on this in the trade value chart thread. I try to account for discounting multiple picks in a trade. I have it even if the trade were 3 for 5 & 17.

[jgoldstein34]

I think you can build more complicated models to compare the value of a single pick versus multiple picks, but I think it still holds that multiple top 10 picks are better than just one. The odds of finding a star are pretty level at each pick once you get out of the top 2.

[Crow]

2017 Analytics+Consensus NBA Draft Board is up @tothemean http://www.tothemean.com/tools/draft-mo ... 17/dv2/all …

[sndesai1]

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts
i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract

i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i would definitely do

I touched on this in the trade value chart thread. I try to account for discounting multiple picks in a trade. I have it even if the trade were 3 for 5 & 17.

gotcha. my apologies for assuming incorrectly

[JoshEngleman]

it's a cool tool, but i don't think most draft value charts consider the effect of max contracts
i.e. i think it's better to have a player at 75 than one player at 55 and another player at 30 if both 75 and 55 are ending up with a max contract

i'm referring to 5 and 30 moreso than 5 and 10, which i would definitely do

I touched on this in the trade value chart thread. I try to account for discounting multiple picks in a trade. I have it even if the trade were 3 for 5 & 17.

gotcha. my apologies for assuming incorrectly

No apologies necessary. My "draft chart" isn't really a draft chart. I just made mention of it for the first time yesterday. You're essentially right. I've never seen anything out there trying to analyze what you were talking about.

[Dr Positivity]

My model's final top 30

Code: Select all

1. SF Josh Jackson
2. C Anzejs Pasecniks
3. PG Jawun Evans
4. PG Lonzo Ball
5. PG Dennis Smith, Jr.
6. C Cameron Oliver
7. C Mathias Lessort
8. SG Donovan Mitchell
9. PG Markelle Fultz
10. SF Jayson Tatum
11. PG De'Aaron Fox
12. PF OG Anunoby
13. PF Jordan Bell
14. PF T.J. Leaf
15. SG Sindarious Thornwell
16. C Thomas Bryant
17. SF Jonathan Isaac
18. SG Jajuan Johnson
19. PG Monte Morris
20. PF Aleksander Vezenkov
21. PF Tyler Lydon
22. C Zach Collins
23. C Ivan Rabb
24. SG Malik Monk
25. PF John Collins
26. C Justin Patton
27. PF Deonte Burton
28. SG Wesley Iwundu
29. SG L.J. Peak
30. SF Justin Jackson
(31.) SG Josh Hart

Notable omissions in top 30: Lauri Markkanen, Luke Kennard, Bam Adebayo, Ike Anigbogu, Frank Ntilikina, Isaiah Harteinstein, Terrance Ferguson, Harry Giles, Jarrett Allen

[Rd11490]

Where does your model rank Frank Ntilikina? It's interesting to see him so far back on your board.

[Dr Positivity]

My model says to not draft him, realistically I would bypass that and consider in mid 2nd I guess, around the same as Harry Giles. I lean on productivity for international players and Frank is basically DOA from that perspective, he averages a mediocre 11.1 pts, 4.7 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk, 1.8 Tov per 40 minutes on .53 TS in French Pro A, or 11.9 PER which is 9th on his team for qualified players. He is poor at getting to the line (1.9 FTA on 9.6 FGA per 40) and while he hit 38% in total from 3 for the season he only did 64% FT so his shooting does not project that well, overall there is just not much to hang on to statistically

[Dr Positivity]

Recommended and realistic draft using my model. To control for GMs fear of reaching, assumes available pool of players is 2 * Rank on Draftexpress. For example the #1 picks between the top 2 players on DX, the 10th pick has to pick between the top 20, etc.

Code: Select all

1. PHI - PG Lonzo Ball
2. LAL - SF Josh Jackson
3. BOS - SF Jayson Tatum
4. PHX - PG Dennis Smith, Jr.
5. SAC - PG De'Aaron Fox
6. ORL - SG Donovan Mitchell
7. MIN - PG Markelle Fultz
8. NY - PF OG Anunoby
9. DAL - SF Jonathan Isaac
10. SAC - C Zach Collins
11. CHA - C Anzejs Pasecniks
12. DET - PF Tyler Lydon
13. DEN - SG Malik Monk
14. MIA - PF John Collins
15. POR - PG Jawun Evans
16. CHI - C Mathias Lessort
17. MIL - PF/C Ivan Rabb
18. IND - PF Jordan Bell
19. ATL - PF T.J. Leaf
20. POR - C Thomas Bryant
21. OKC - C Justin Patton
22. BKN - SF Justin Jackson
23. TOR - SG L.J. Peak
24. UTA - SF Jonah Bolden
25. ORL - PF D.J. Wilson
26. POR - SG Josh Hart
27. LAL - SG Wesley Iwundu
28. LAL - C Cameron Oliver
29. SAS - SG Sindarious Thornwell
30. UTA - SG Sterling Brown

[jgoldstein34]

Here's my final projections: https://goo.gl/tXhiyt

I really like Dr. Positives idea for building a realistic draft, may try it myself. Very cool.