ATL 5.99
BOS 6.87
BRK 6.20
CHA 6.99
CHI 4.45
CLE 4.66
DAL 4.34
DEN 4.83
DET 4.45
GSW 3.35
HOU 4.05
IND 4.51
LAC 4.19
LAL 4.20
MEM 4.33
MIA 5.18
MIL 4.56
MIN 8.47
NOP 4.63
NYK 4.28
OKC 5.88
ORL 5.58
PHI 4.20
PHX 5.21
POR 4.42
SAC 4.21
SAS 4.73
TOR 4.23
UTA 4.12
WAS 5.42
The commom man perspective on Jae Crowder is that he constantly takes terrible contested threes that he can't make, he actively hurts the celtics, and he hates the celtics fan base. The common fan is stupid.
Crowder is average to slightly above?
He's a weaker rebounder than Channing Frye, no better as a scorer but a bit better passer.
I guess he's more credibly a backup to LeBron, and lots better than R Jefferson.
Crowder is outstanding on RPM estimate and not just a one year fluke. But RPM is probably better at assessing impact on team than impact rank in league or in abstract or on another team, though it tries.
As part of my campaign to maximize the number of views adjusted plus minus technique can give, I call for a RAPM split into 3 pieces for player time spent in lineups where the other 4 are plus 2 & above cumulatively on RPM, 2 to -2 and below -2. RPM knows that context matters, so let's see player impacts in those 3 contexts.
GSW 67.5
BOS 56.5
HOU 55.5
SAS 54.5
CLE 53.5
OKC 51.5
TOR 48.5
MIN 48.5
MIL 47.5
WAS 47.5
DEN 45.5
MIA 43.5
LAC 43.5
PHI 42.5
CHA 42.5
POR 42.5
UTA 40.5
NOP 39.5
DET 38.5
MEM 37.5
DAL 35.5
ORL 33.5
LAL 33.5
IND 31.5
NYK 30.5
BRK 28.5
SAC 28.5
PHX 28.5
ATL 25.5
CHI 21.5
Kevin Pelton looked at which teams differed the most from his RPM projections posted earlier this year:
That Boston line is so strange, I don't think I've seen a single person who thinks it's over. I get the east is weak but that's too high. Same for Philly.
I'm pretty sure the max bets at Westgate on these are only $1K and it wouldn't take more than a few max bets on the under to move the line down a couple wins. So there's not a massive amount of liability in posting a slightly off-market opener in this case.
