2017-18 team win projection contest

[shadow]

Standings based on updated win projections derived from my power rankings:

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Entry  Avg Error
shad	4.96
sbs.	5.39
RyRi	5.46
gold	5.49
538_	5.51
kmed	5.63
Josh	5.65
sndi	5.76
cali	5.79
lnqi	5.81
AJBk	5.83
GK5.	6.08
Crow	6.11
Nath	6.28
ATCt	6.66
Mike	6.68
emin	6.89
ncs.	6.91
knar	7.28

FWIW, 4.96 would have only beat 2 entries (538 & Regressed-Pythag) at the end of last year in average error.

[Mike G]

As you'd expect with square errors, a lot of Shadow's lead is a function of being higher on big outperformers like Detroit, Boston, and Memphis..

Except that his unsquared-error lead is bigger than his squared error lead. At least relative to b-r.com projections.

Last year on Nov. 22, our errors ranged from 5.08 to 6.28
So we are actually better than at the same time last year.
But on Nov 26, the range was 4.32 to 5.27
On Nov 29 we were 3.99 to 4.98
Dec 3 -- 4.55 to 5.53
Dec 8 -- 3.89 to 5.26
...
http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9188

[Mike G]

Before last night's games, both Atl and Sac were projected 26-win teams.
Now Atl looks like 30 W and Sac is at 22. A 45-pt blowout at this point changes your MOV by 3 or so.

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_avg + err  RMSE       avg + err  RMSE
shad   5.3   6.4      sndi   6.1   7.2
gold   5.5   6.3      Josh   6.3   7.3
sbs.   5.7   6.7      Crow   6.4   7.5
RyRi   5.7   6.7      GK5.   6.5   7.5
kmed   5.8   7.2      Nath   6.5   7.6
538_   5.8   7.0      ATCt   6.9   7.9
AJBk   5.8   7.0      Mike   7.0   8.3
vegas  5.9   7.0      emin   7.2   8.4
cali   6.1   7.2      ncs.   7.2   8.7
lnqi   6.1   7.1      knar   7.6   8.8

Everyone looks about .20 worse, due to that one gnarly game.

[Mike G]

Yesterday, Orlando was projecting to exceed everyone's expectations by at least 7 wins, and an avg of 11.
And Utah was running at least 4, avg 8 wins short of our guesses. With a 40 point margin, both teams are "corrected" by 4 wins.
Here's a summary of yesterday's b-r.com projections and today's, for last night's contestants.

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tm    Pts   11-18  11-19  diff
Uta   125   34.5   38.5    4.0
Orl    85   43.8   39.8   -4.0

Dal   111   24.5   27.7    3.2
Mil    79   43.1   39.4   -3.7

Hou   105   53.7   55.7    2.0
Mem    83   43.9   42.3   -1.6

Cha   102   38.2   39.2    1.0
LAC    87   39.9   38.4   -1.5

Por   102   45.1   44.5   -0.6
Sac    90   23.9   23.8   -0.1

Bos   110   56.7   56.8    0.1
Atl    99   30.3   30.1   -0.2

GSW   124   59.6   60.0    0.4
Phl   116   43.0   43.9    0.9

The changes aren't symmetrical in most cases, at this time of year, because previous-opponent strengths are being recalibrated.
Both the Sixers and the Dubs look better today, and we presume it's because both were under-rated prior to the game.
Blazers and Kings both look worse for their efforts -- esp. the winners!

Some teams which did not play had their forecast change more than some who notched a win or a loss:

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dnp  11-18  11-19   diff
Min   44.2   45.0   +0.8
Was   45.3   45.9   +0.6
Tor   53.2   53.6   +0.4
...
Det   47.9   47.6   -0.3
Cle   39.5   39.1   -0.4
NOP   38.5   38.1   -0.4
SAS   46.2   45.7   -0.5

After all this, our little race has tightened some, and we may say there are co-leaders:

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
shad   5.05   6.11      sndi   5.69   6.67
gold   5.12   6.07      Josh   5.80   6.79
RyRi   5.29   6.31      GK5.   5.94   7.07
538_   5.38   6.63      Nath   5.96   7.16
sbs.   5.39   6.31      Crow   6.10   7.39
kmed   5.39   6.73      ATCt   6.54   7.69
AJBk   5.48   6.69      Mike   6.63   7.80
vegas  5.53   6.61      emin   6.68   7.69
lnqi   5.56   6.56      ncs.   6.73   8.41
cali   5.65   6.72      knar   7.31   8.40

Update 11-21

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
shad   5.54   6.71      lnqi   6.20   7.27
gold   5.63   6.70      Josh   6.25   7.39
sbs.   5.86   6.93      Nath   6.49   7.62
RyRi   5.89   6.93      GK5.   6.62   7.77
538_   5.94   7.16      Crow   6.64   7.85
vegas  5.98   7.18      Mike   7.11   8.13
kmed   6.02   7.38      ATCt   7.12   8.37
cali   6.16   7.44      emin   7.13   8.27
AJBk   6.16   7.21      ncs.   7.40   8.89
sndi   6.18   7.20      knar   7.81   8.88

We've all taken a beating.

Update 11-26:

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
shad   5.46   6.62      Josh   6.01   7.19
sndi   5.62   6.83      Nath   6.05   7.37
vegas  5.68   6.87      AJBk   6.09   7.17
kmed   5.69   7.23      Crow   6.37   7.71
gold   5.69   6.86      GK5.   6.53   7.80
cali   5.77   7.12      emin   6.72   7.80
sbs.   5.79   6.82      Mike   6.76   7.79
RyRi   5.87   6.87      ATCt   6.81   8.25
lnqi   5.90   6.94      ncs.   7.13   8.75
538_   5.99   7.15      knar   7.29   8.55

[Mike G]

Here are teams ranked by how much better they are doing, than what we expected.
On the left are the over- and under-achievers, teams which are projecting entirely above or below all our guesses.
On the right, the middle has been pulled aside: These teams affect your avg error relative to everyone else's.
Current projection = avg + off

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tm   off   avg      tm  off  avg
Phl   14   36      Por    4   41
Ind   13   32      Orl    3   33
NYK   12   30      Mem    2   36
Det   10   36      Atl    1   27
Bos   10   48      Hou    1   58
LAL    7   28      NOP    0   42
Tor    6   48      Sac   -2   26
Brk    5   29      Dal   -2   33
. . .              Den   -3   47
Chi   -5   26      Mia   -3   43
Min   -6   48      Was   -3   48
Cha   -6   45      Phx   -3   27
GSW   -7   67      Uta   -3   43
Okl   -8   51            
SAS   -8   53            
Mil   -8   46            
LAC  -10   48            
Cle  -11   55            

So, when the Cavs win, or the Sixers lose, everyone's avg-err improves; and nothing changes in the contest.
With any win or loss by a team on the right, your place in the race is affected.

[Mike G]

Improvements by everyone in 2 days, and a general tightening:

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
shad   5.29   6.36      Nath   5.83   7.14
sndi   5.36   6.57      lnqi   5.91   6.76
vegas  5.51   6.71      AJBk   5.91   6.99
sbs.   5.54   6.59      Crow   6.10   7.49
kmed   5.58   7.05      GK5.   6.21   7.49
RyRi   5.61   6.61      Mike   6.39   7.45
Josh   5.68   6.86      emin   6.47   7.59
gold   5.70   6.77      ATCt   6.61   7.93
cali   5.74   6.94      ncs.   6.78   8.40
538_   5.81   6.90      knar   7.06   8.28

[caliban]

Not much change since the 10 game update. Very compact field. shadow still the boards best hope against Vegas.

[Mike G]

You can get the same as (RMSE+MAE)/2 by taking the 1.45 root of the sum of the 1.45 power of all errors.

[Mike G]

Whoa

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
sndi   5.27   6.53      Nath   5.83   7.10
gold   5.56   6.74      AJBk   5.92   7.19
cali   5.56   7.06      Josh   5.99   7.10
kmed   5.65   7.09      emin   6.32   7.46
RyRi   5.67   6.72      GK5.   6.37   7.70
shad   5.67   6.55      Crow   6.37   7.66
538_   5.72   6.99      ATCt   6.69   8.06
sbs.   5.74   6.70      Mike   6.71   7.67
lnqi   5.76   6.76      knar   7.09   8.28
vegas  5.83   6.84      ncs.   7.12   8.53

sndesai now looking best (or tied) on Brk, Cha, Chi, and SAS; worst on none.
shadow still in virtual tie for the lead in RMSE. He went low on Hou, high on Mem.

Dec. 5 update:

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
sndi   5.11   6.34     vegas   5.79   6.75
cali   5.48   6.86      AJBk   5.84   7.18
538_   5.51   6.79      Nath   5.89   7.09
sbs.   5.56   6.56      GK5.   6.09   7.47
shad   5.57   6.49      emin   6.37   7.31
RyRi   5.58   6.63      Crow   6.47   7.67
gold   5.63   6.74      ATCt   6.51   7.86
Josh   5.64   6.89      Mike   6.53   7.36
lnqi   5.66   6.63      knar   6.96   8.12
kmed   5.74   6.90      ncs.   7.04   8.38

Desai now nailing Uta and Hou, as well as the 4 named above.

Update, Dec. 9

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
sndi   4.96   6.28      Nath   5.66   6.95
cali   5.30   6.88      AJBk   5.68   7.17
RyRi   5.40   6.56      kmed   5.72   6.87
sbs.   5.47   6.53      GK5.   5.97   7.46
shad   5.48   6.48      emin   6.07   7.14
538_   5.48   6.87      Mike   6.37   7.29
gold   5.48   6.72      Crow   6.41   7.68
lnqi   5.53   6.59      ATCt   6.44   7.89
vegas  5.55   6.70      knar   6.81   8.10
Josh   5.65   6.88      ncs.   6.84   8.30

Separating east from west teams, ranked by their over-projection, relative to our average prediction.
We guessed the Pacers would win 32.2, but they're headed for 45.8, so we're off by almost 14, on avg.

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West  off     East   off
LAL   5.1      Ind  13.6
Hou   3.5      NYK  11.6
Uta   2.0      Det   9.6
Por   1.0      Phl   9.3
Sac  -0.6      Bos   9.0
Mem  -0.6      Brk   7.5
Dal  -0.8      Tor   7.3
Phx  -1.8      Orl   2.3
NOP  -2.0      Atl   0.1
SAS  -4.3      Was  -3.0
Min  -4.4      Mil  -3.6
Den  -5.5      Chi  -6.0
GSW  -6.0      Mia  -6.3
Okl  -8.0      Cle  -6.8
LAC -14.5      Cha  -8.4

tot -36.7      tot  36.4

Lakers most surprising in the West, would only rank 8th in the East.
East still + 5 in inter-conference games.

Update Dec 10 -- improvements as much as .32 overnight!

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
sndi   4.82   6.14      AJBk   5.49   6.95
RyRi   5.13   6.34      Josh   5.58   6.75
cali   5.17   6.67      kmed   5.59   6.73
sbs.   5.21   6.28      GK5.   5.87   7.25
shad   5.25   6.23      emin   5.96   6.94
gold   5.29   6.55      Mike   6.09   7.13
lnqi   5.32   6.36      Crow   6.20   7.45
vegas  5.33   6.42      ATCt   6.25   7.68
Nath   5.40   6.73      ncs.   6.52   8.07
538_   5.40   6.73      knar   6.55   7.86

[shadow]

Too late to vote for RMSE as the official metric?

[Mike G]

shadow would be in the lead with any exponent between 2.4 and 7.6
Above 7.6, it's eminence.
Below 0.12 it goes to Nathan
sndesai leads with exponent between .13 and 2.3

[Mike G]

General improvement and tightening.

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avg abs err   RMSE      avg abs err   RMSE
sndi   4.68   5.92      AJBk   5.18   6.47
RyRi   4.87   5.97      Josh   5.29   6.43
cali   4.93   6.34      kmed   5.33   6.41
sbs.   4.93   5.99      GK5.   5.58   6.87
shad   5.00   6.04      emin   5.74   6.72
538_   5.02   6.42      Mike   5.83   6.84
lnqi   5.07   6.06      Crow   5.88   7.16
gold   5.07   6.36      ATCt   5.97   7.32
Nath   5.12   6.53      knar   6.14   7.49
vegas  5.17   6.29      ncs.   6.20   7.66

Improvements in 2 days range from .14 (sndi) to .41 (knarsu), avg .28

[nbacouchside]

gonna be bringing up the rear the whole year, it seems

[Mike G]

For sure -- provided the Cavs' surge runs out, the Pistons dive is contained, the Celts maintain their inordinate high, and the Lakers and Sixers keep outdoing themselves.
If any of those don't happen -- or if Atl goes south, Cha gets it together, Chi keeps improving, Mil figures it out, Curry comes back, Min makes a playoff run, NOP flex their muscles, Por can't keep it up, Kawhi IS back -- so many ways things get better.

I sort of don't see the Clipps righting their ship; otherwise, most developments should be favorable.

[Crow]

Not surprising to me, all my big misses are in the east except for the Clips. That has happened before.