Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)

[josecarlos]

Doncic had 3 20 plus point games is first 3 weeks. 5 in last 12 weeks. 60% decline in frequency.

Almost no year to year change (or improvement) in his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks per minute. The boxscore change is almost all about usage, better ftr, 2pt shooting. 3pt fg% is meh and career worst.

Jaycee Carroll shooting better FG%s and only 7% less on points per minute due to Doncic's ftr. Anthony Randolph with better FGs and only 20% behind on points per minute for same reason. Any interest in NBA for either of these guys? IDENTICAL FGA per minute rates so this is not a imbalanced comparison for the shooting part.

Doncic 7th on team on TS%. SLIGHTLY ahead of that NBA phenom Jeffery Taylor.

Good analysis.

[Crow]

Thanks. It is quick & brief but highlights parts of the story. There are positives (well covered) and probably more to uncover with exposure / time.

How much of the great scoring efficiencies by Doncic teammates are BECAUSE OF DONCIC or at least helped by him? I dunno. Surely some but how much? Would have to watch a lot. Assists suggest good help but may or may not be extraordinary. With / without analysis for this season and this season vs. other seasons without him in this role would help.

[Nathan]

Doncic had 3 20 plus point games is first 3 weeks. 5 in last 12 weeks. 60% decline in frequency.

Almost no year to year change (or improvement) in his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks per minute. The boxscore change is almost all about usage, better ftr, 2pt shooting. 3pt fg% is meh and career worst.

Jaycee Carroll shooting better FG%s and only 7% less on points per minute due to Doncic's ftr. Anthony Randolph with better FGs and only 20% behind on points per minute for same reason. Any interest in NBA for either of these guys? IDENTICAL FGA per minute rates so this is not a imbalanced comparison for the shooting part.

Doncic 7th on team on TS%. SLIGHTLY ahead of that NBA phenom Jeffery Taylor.

First off, this isn't really a fair comparison because Doncic is 18 years old. He "should" be a college freshman this year, not playing against pros. Given that former NCAA players Jaycee Carroll, Anthony Randolph, Chasson Randle, Jeffery Taylor, and Trey Thompkins are averaging 8, 10, 2, 6, and 10 points respectively for Real Madrid this year, compared to 22, 16, 20, 16, and 16 points in college, what kind of numbers might Doncic put up if he were an NCAA freshman? He'd be breaking records left and right.

Secondly, it's no mean feat to increase your scoring rate from 16 points/40 to 27 points/40 while also improving your efficiency. I'm also not sure where you're getting that he's 7th on his team in TS%. I calculated just now, and he's at 64.1%, a hair behind Rudy Fernandez for second on his team (in Euroleague play).

[Crow]

Doncic's NCAA teammate production college vs Euro should be compared by usage level, possessions or minutes. By game is not a fair comparison.

For Jaycee Carroll, he is scoring at same pts / min rate this season all-competition as he did at probably not that tough SOS for NCAA play Utah State. A little less than his career average. His college career ts% is the same as this season. Jeffery Taylor has a higher ts% in Europe than he did in college (61% vs 56%), though it is a much reduced usage role. Trey Thompkims scoring way better in Europe than college (61 ts% vs. 54%) in a slightly reduced role. They were imported probably because they were better than the guys who places they took.



The ts%s I reported are what basketball reference had yesterday "all competition" and it is still true today https://www.basketball-reference.com/eu ... /2018.html In general, I'd rather use all the data than throw half out.

[Nathan]

Doncic's NCAA teammate production college vs Euro should be compared by usage level, possessions or minutes. By game is not a fair comparison.

For Jaycee Carroll, he is scoring at same pts / min rate this season all-competition as he did at probably not that tough SOS for NCAA play Utah State. A little less than his career average. His college career ts% is the same as this season. Jeffery Taylor has a higher ts% in Europe than he did in college (61% vs 56%), though it is a reduced usage role.


The ts%s I reported are what basketball reference had yesterday "all competition" and it is still true today https://www.basketball-reference.com/eu ... /2018.html I'd rather use all the data than throw half out.

Carroll had an easy strength of schedule for sure, but you can't fake your way to 50% shooting from 3 and 92% from the line. He can flat out shoot, and it shouldn't be considered a knock against Doncic that he's slightly less efficient than him.

More importantly though, I would argue that it's more fair to compare Doncic's efficiency against RM's other point guards, Campazzo and Randle, rather than against guys like Carroll who score a lot of points off of assists. It's not uncommon for star players to have fairly average scoring efficiencies relative to their teammates simply because they get fewer high-percentage shot attempts.

[Crow]

Yeah I didn't know Carroll before but I bet most didn't either. Saying Carroll's ts% is higher than Doncic's (along with 5 others on same team) may or may be a fair knock but it adds context. People talk about NCAA vs Europe. For the 3 guys I tracked, they were equal or better on scoring efficiency in Europe. That could be about self improvement but it doesn't demonstrate tougher conditions there.

Comparing Doncic to Doncic is probably the fairest comparison. Yr to yr his true shot attempts are up 50%. His ts% is up about 3.5%. That is still impressive but it is also added context. What shot rate will he get in NBA?

Role does matter but stars usually get the first, best looks AND tougher ones. Campazzo and Randle may play same position but not same role and at 5-10 and 6-2 aren't similar physically either.

[Nathan]

Yeah I didn't know Carroll before but I bet most didn't either. Saying Carroll's ts% is higher than Doncic's may or may be a fair knock but it adds context.

Comparing Doncic to Doncic I probably the fairest comparison. Yr to yr is true shit attempts are ul about 50%. His ts% is up about 3.5%. That is still impressive but it is also added context. What shot rate will he get in NBA?

I completely agree that his improvement from last year is more modest than raw box score stats would suggest. But in his defense, his assist/rebound numbers were already excellent last season. Other than Simmons, what guy comes into the NBA with the body of a power forward and the vision of a point guard? I think he'll have a really successful career, like some kind of strange James Harden Kevin Love hybrid.

[Crow]

I tend to be somewhat skeptical til shown in NBA. I think an average to good starter career is more likely than great. But a lot depends if coach / team lets him dominate the ball and play his way for his stats.

[Nathan]

I tend to be somewhat skeptical til shown. I think an average to good career is more likely than great.

That's fair. I remember making a draft rater a few years ago and being surprised at first when just a few players rated better than +5, or so. That reflects the exact point you're making, of course. Doncic is a bit of an exception in my opinion because we have such a large sample size for him, over 3,000 professional minutes logged over the last 3 years. We've already seen him play alongside and against NBA-caliber players (in particular at Eurobasket) and he's more than held his own. There's never been a prospect like him in that sense.

[Crow]

Yeah. It is not a thin case like Ntilikina.

I don't know how high to project Doncic. What little I studied (compared to time needed to make a pro decision) just seems enough to say that maybe the ultra-praise might be too free and is maybe not treating the context change with enough caution. Rubio was young and supposed to get a lot better and fix his flaws but he ended up far less than projected.

[Crow]

Harden-Love hybrid is really up there in terms of ceiling or expectation. Less lofty but til interesting would be Doncic: better or worse start than B Simmons? Better or worse career? Are you solidly for better on both? Equally fabulous? Different but both still at least level 1 fabulous?

Should Simmons NBA data be used to improve Doncic's NBA projection? How? How confidently? Should it be taken to skill / biometric level and/ or play type level instead of just simple stat comparison?

[Nathan]

Yeah. It is not a thin case like Ntilikina.

I don't know how high to project Doncic. What little I studied (compared to time needed to make a pro decision) just seems enough to say that maybe the ultra-praise might be too free and is maybe not treating the context change with enough caution. Rubio was young and supposed to get a lot better and fix his flaws but he ended up far less than projected.

That's a fair point, though I'd argue it's more a lesson in the fact that all great 18-year-olds don't go on to become great players in their primes, rather than a lesson in European stats failing to translate to the NBA. For whatever reason, Rubio went from scoring ~17 points per 40 on ~55% true shooting at age 17 to under 10 points per 40 on under 50% true shooting at age 20, before coming to the NBA at age 21. Bizarre.

[Crow]

One detail that a pro evaluation should include in all cases would be performance against starters vs. bench. Still hard to evaluate strength of opponent... especially until we get NCAA and Euro RAPM.

If we had NCAA and Euro player RAPM separately, someone could take a stab at blending them together with NBA RAPM. High concept, imprecise but maybe better to try than to not try and continue with separate worlds and sketchy translations. My understanding is that Vashro's public article was about league strengths. Did he take the comparison down to individual level? If he did that is kept between him and Nuggets.

[Nathan]

Harden-Love hybrid is really up there in terms of ceiling or expectation. Less lofty but til interesting would be Doncic: better or worse start than B Simmons? Better or worse career? Are you solidly for better on both?

I'm very high on Simmons, in part because I think he'll be a top-5 defensive player in the league for most of his prime. That won't be Doncic.

On the other hand, his jump shot is for real, better than his percentages imply. He's probably shot around 15 halfcourt or beyond 3's at the ends of quarters that most players aren't interested in taking for the sake of their percentages. Subtract those off, and his percentage would be in the mid-upper 30's around where you'd expect it for a high volume guy who takes a lot of shots off the dribble.

Like Simmons, he really is an elite rebounder. He's probably close to 240 pounds with an 8'10" standing reach, and he uses those physical tools well.

I'd also say Doncic is a somewhat better passer. Better assist/TO against better competition at a younger age. Like Simmons, he can comfortably facilitate either as a traditional point guard or from the block thanks to his size. Both guys have huge upside in that regard.

So in summary, I think he'll be a better offensive player, perhaps among the very best in the league, and mildly above average defensively. I think Simmons will probably be a fringe top-20 offensive player in his prime, and as I said before a top-5 defensive player. That probably adds up to them both being top-10 players in the league overall.

[Crow]

Ok, thanks for spelling your view out.

But, if you are game, let's go further.

Doncic projected above Simmons. What about Giannis?

Is Giannis a Harden-Love hybrid? How much chance do you give Doncic to get to Giannis' current level? Do you give him any chance of surpassing Giannis?

And how about LBJ on offense?

Any prediction about "leadership quality" of Doncic and for those other names? By what means if any can we project leadership quality? Individual stats alone usually don't get the ultimate prize.

RPM / BPM ratio? Or just high on both? Actual win% vs Pythagorean expected? Clutch and crunch play? Peak performances? Leadership assessment of interview texts? Visual analysis of teammate interactions? Statistical responses to adverse conditions including road games, losing streaks, top opponents (individual & team) but more granular too (poor shooting streaks, not getting to line experiences, pair data with stars, avg. and weak players, etc.)

Collaboration skills with coaches & GMs? Assessment of importance of various goals? Assessment of confidence level or confidence type? Listening skills / coachability? Ability to rise above coaching? Teammate reaction to star behavior & personality on and off court? In what ways is he like / not like Hakeem, Manu, Pau, Dirk as a person / player? (and Hezonja, Bogdanovic, Porzingis, Giannis, Galinari, Jokic, Mirotic, JVal and other non NBA titlists, yet)