Home for all your discussion of basketball statistical analysis.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:25 pm
Finals game 1
Code: Select all
gm 1 tm min PER WS/53 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 47 43.2 .340 18.1 .33 .24
D Green GS 47 22.3 .204 11.7 .20 .16
Curry GS 46 22.7 .163 6.4 .16 .10
Livingston GS 18 33.3 .344 7.9 .13 .04
Looney GS 25 16.6 .192 4.9 .10 .04
Durant GS 46 19.5 .102 .6 .10 .03
Nance Cle 19 28.1 .193 .2 .08 .01
McCaw GS 4 36.0 .527 18.6 .04 .02
K Thompson GS 45 14.6 .077 -1.8 .07 .00
Bell GS 13 15.1 .165 .9 .04 .01
gm 1 tm min PER WS/53 BPM WS vorp
J Green Cle 36 9.1 .008 .4 .01 .02
Hill Cle 31 6.0 .030 -0.6 .02 .01
McGee GS 6 29.8 .165 1.6 .02 .01
West GS 4 16.4 -.092 -9.2 -.01 -.01
Smith Cle 39 6.7 -.016 -3.2 -.01 -.01
Love Cle 40 16.7 .043 -7.3 .04 -.05
Korver Cle 16 2.6 -.027 -9.6 -.01 -.03
Young GS 10 -6.9 -.225 -16.4 -.05 -.04
TThompson Cle 20 .8 -.138 -9.9 -.06 -.04
Clarkson Cle 17 -1.1 -.263 -13.8 -.09 -.05
gm 1 tm min PER WS/53 BPM WS vorp
totals GS 265 19.6 .147 3.6 .81 .37
totals Cle 265 15.3 .054 -.6 .30 .09
Since 1.0 win was earned in 53 game minutes (530 player minutes) you might expect Win Shares to sum to 1.00 instead of 1.11
Without scaling WS rates by 48/53, WS total 1.22
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:21 am
After 2 games, Dubs winning by 14.5 ppg
Code: Select all
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/51 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 46 34.0 .224 14.7 .43 .38
D Green GS 44 17.2 .200 8.1 .36 .22
Durant GS 43 24.0 .206 6.8 .37 .19
Curry GS 42 23.3 .163 8.0 .29 .21
Livingston GS 17 30.9 .346 8.1 .25 .09
K Thompson GS 40 15.5 .102 .4 .17 .05
McGee GS 12 28.3 .281 5.0 .14 .04
Hill Cle 33 11.3 .059 1.0 .08 .05
Bell GS 12 16.4 .207 2.9 .10 .03
West GS 8 24.5 .226 10.2 .07 .05
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/51 BPM WS vorp
Looney GS 18 11.0 .104 1.3 .08 .03
Nance Cle 16 23.5 .103 -2.2 .07 .00
Love Cle 37 20.4 .074 -3.8 .11 -.03
TThompson Cle 22 10.4 -.018 -7.9 -.02 -.07
J Green Cle 28 7.4 -.049 -5.2 -.06 -.04
Korver Cle 17 2.5 -.098 -9.7 -.07 -.06
Smith Cle 35 3.9 -.103 -6.2 -.15 -.07
Young GS 13 -11.4 -.262 -15.3 -.14 -.08
Clarkson Cle 13 -1.7 -.299 -13.3 -.16 -.07
gm 1-2 tm mpg PER WS/51 BPM WS vorp
totals Cle 253 15.2 .026 -1.6 .27 .05
totals GS 253 19.3 .168 4.5 1.78 .82
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:43 pm
After 2 Finals games, LeBron'18 already ranks 5th in postseason Win Shares
Code: Select all
WS per G yr G mpg Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
5.9 Duncan 03 24 42.5 24.7 11.4 5.3 .3 3.3 3.2
5.8 LeBron 12 23 42.7 30.3 9.7 5.6 1.9 .7 3.5
5.4 Dirk 06 23 42.7 27.0 11.7 2.9 1.1 .6 2.1
5.2 LeBron 13 23 41.7 25.9 8.4 6.6 1.8 .8 3.0
5.0 LeBron 18 20 41.7 34.6 9.2 9.0 1.4 1.0 4.2It's his 3rd highest total and likely to end up as his 2nd best playoff run.
And in VORP -- holy cow!
Code: Select all
vorp per G yr G mpg Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
3.5 Duncan 03 24 42.5 24.7 11.4 5.3 .3 3.3 3.2
3.5 LeBron 18 20 41.7 34.6 9.2 9.0 1.4 1.0 4.2
3.2 LeBron 12 23 42.7 30.3 9.7 5.6 1.9 .7 3.5
3.1 LeBron 16 21 39.1 26.3 9.5 7.6 2.3 1.3 3.6
2.9 Bird 84 23 41.8 27.5 11.0 5.9 2.3 1.2 3.8LeBron is the vorp man, and by halftime tonight he is likely to have the top spot.
He also has #6 and 7, tied with Bird for 5th actually (2.9)
Jordan has the #7 and 9 WS spots; 8, 10, 11, and 12 in vorp.
http://bkref.com/tiny/xTM9h
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:24 am
Dubs up 3-0 and by 12.3 ppg
Code: Select all
gm 1-3 tm min PER WS/50 BPM WS vorp
LeBron Cle 46 31.8 .207 13.4 .60 .53
Durant GS 43 29.4 .297 10.5 .79 .40
D Green GS 42 15.7 .181 6.6 .48 .27
Curry GS 41 16.8 .093 2.8 .24 .15
Livingston GS 17 26.2 .303 6.3 .32 .11
Love Cle 35 23.5 .135 1.2 .30 .08
Bell GS 12 25.2 .298 5.5 .22 .07
McGee GS 13 28.7 .257 4.5 .21 .06
K Thompson GS 40 12.7 .081 .0 .20 .06
Hood Cle 10 25.2 .168 1.2 .11 .02
gm 1-3 tm min PER WS/50 BPM WS vorp
Looney GS 12 11.0 .106 .2 .08 .02
Iguodala GS 7 14.2 .110 1.1 .05 .02
West GS 7 14.4 .044 3.4 .02 .03
Nance Cle 15 20.0 .072 -2.6 .07 -.01
Hill Cle 31 7.5 -.006 -1.8 -.01 .01
TThompson Cle 26 9.5 -.004 -6.9 -.01 -.09
Smith Cle 34 6.0 -.054 -4.9 -.12 -.07
J Green Cle 25 4.9 -.067 -7.0 -.10 -.09
Young GS 10 -10.0 -.233 -13.7 -.14 -.08
Clarkson Cle 9 -1.7 -.304 -13.3 -.16 -.07
Korver Cle 15 -3.6 -.193 -13.6 -.18 -.13
gm 1-3 tm min PER WS/50 BPM WS vorp
totals GS 249 18.6 .165 3.9 2.57 1.10
totals Cle 249 14.8 .035 -1.1 .54 .17
GS last night was +14 in 22 Iguodala minutes.
Mike G
Posts: 6144 Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 amLocation: Asheville, NC
Post
by Mike G Sat Jun 09, 2018 10:13 pm
Did Durant deserve MVP? Seems he did:
Code: Select all
FINALS tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
Durant GS 165 29.4 .307 11.5 1.05 .56
LeBron Cle 179 28.5 .173 11.1 .65 .59
D Green GS 166 15.8 .200 7.2 .69 .38
Curry GS 162 21.3 .161 6.4 .54 .34
Livingston GS 65 22.2 .275 4.6 .37 .11
Bell GS 54 22.5 .277 5.5 .31 .10
Love Cle 133 21.8 .114 .5 .31 .08
McGee GS 55 25.7 .248 3.7 .28 .08
Iguodala GS 44 18.8 .206 7.2 .19 .10
Nance Cle 68 21.4 .119 2.0 .17 .07
FINALS tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
K Thompson GS 148 10.8 .066 -0.8 .20 .04
Looney GS 39 12.1 .129 -0.6 .10 .01
West GS 28 14.0 .104 2.2 .06 .03
Hood Cle 57 17.7 .038 -1.6 .05 .01
TThompson Cle 94 10.9 .008 -6.2 .02 -.10
Smith Cle 129 6.7 -.040 -3.8 -.11 -.06
Clarkson Cle 26 -2.8 -.317 -12.2 -.17 -.07
Hill Cle 117 4.5 -.065 -4.9 -.16 -.08
Young GS 38 -7.4 -.189 -13.0 -.15 -.10
J Green Cle 97 4.2 -.090 -7.4 -.18 -.13
Korver Cle 65 -6.2 -.233 -15.3 -.32 -.22
FINALS tm min PER WS/48 BPM WS vorp
totals GS 985 18.8 .184 4.6 3.77 1.64
totals Cle 985 13.6 .016 -1.7 .33 .08
Scraping from threads hereabouts, game-by-game for LeBron, Durant, Draymond, and Curry
Code: Select all
Win Shares
G LBJ KD DG SC
1 .33 .10 .20 .16
2 .10 .27 .16 .13
3 .17 .42 .12 -.05
4 .05 .26 .21 .30
VORP
G LBJ KD DG SC
1 .24 .03 .16 .10
2 .14 .16 .06 .11
3 .15 .21 .05 -.06
4 .06 .16 .11 .19
eWins
G LBJ KD DG SC
1 .26 .14 .15 .15
2 .14 .21 .07 .22
3 .22 .35 .06 .04
4 .10 .24 .10 .27
LeBron had .33 WS in G1 and .32 after.