Doncic

[Crow]

At 5.6 assists per game, Doncic is tied with Barea for team lead. But that is the 3rd lowest mark in league for team leader (I think), just ahead of the hapless Cavs and Knicks. Adjusted for pace the Mavs overall are 8th lowest on assists / 100 poss. Will probably need to change that dramatically, though a few good teams are almost as low and get away with it due to strong self-creators. Doncic is a self-creator but not a particularly strong one (below league average efg% and ts%). Being lead ball handler should get you several pretty easy assists per game, at least.

Of the 62 players averaging 4 plus assists per game, Doncic has the 7th lowest A/TO.

Of the 20 players this season with usage of 29% or higher, Doncic has the 4th lowest ts%. Only D Michell, Westbrook and D Russell are lower.

For players with large roles for playmaking and / or scoring, he is one of the least efficient at both.

[Crow]

Familiar story, near triple double but below average efficiency. 24 pts on 29 possessions. Mavs lose his time on court and game. Mavs happy.

Dirk passes Wilt on regular season scoring shortly. If he stays next season it is to try to catch Jordan. And maybe help with another crap season / oh its not a tank, tank.

[Crow]

His efg% for season is lower than the team average for 28th ranked Griz. 4 made shots above 50%. Another bad shooting game and he will be closer to the 29th ranked team. For March the efg% is 44%.

For March he also has his by far worst monthly offensive rating (just 95. average is probably near 110.) and plus minus (-20 / 100 poss.). TS% of 47%. 54.5% FT%. 23% from 3 pt land. Usage while shooting / scoring this bad? His highest yet at 35%.

Have these things gotten noticed / reported anywhere else? Not to my knowledge.

You can create a per game stat "star" by giving them a huge role and freedom. Often creates bad habits hard to break later. Or it might lead to better performance. Or some of both.

[Crow]

A twitter research discussion says second half of rookie season has more predictive power on future performance than first half. On average. But might not be a good sign for Doncic. His second half so far is considerably below his first half. Similar to last season with Real Madrid. RM doing better this season in Euroleague without him than last season on net points and win%. Worse in ACB but still great. Doncic had a negative on / off last season and this season.

On vs. off Mavs shoot better with Doncic on court but turn it over more than off. Assist rate goes down. Offensive rating up a tiny, tiny amount. Opponent shoot better and turn it over less with him on. Get more assists. Opponent offensive rating goes up a modest 2.7 pts / 1oo poss3essins. But that is 13.5 times the Mavs' offensive rating increase with Doncic on.

[Mike G]

Doncic still has crazy splits in his numbers based on number of days' rest. I wondered if other top rookies have shown this tendency. Here are the last few who had rookie seasons with at least 4 Win Shares and 2 VORP:

Code: Select all

. Dal    yr  rest  ORt   DRt   O/D   -tm
Doncic   19   0   101   110    .92   .017
Doncic   19   1   105   109    .96  -.021
Doncic   19  2.3  113   109   1.04   .019
                  
. Uta    yr  rest  ORt   DRt   O/D   -tm
Mitchell 18   0   101   106    .95  -.003
Mitchell 18   1   100   106    .94  -.027
Mitchell 18  2.3  108   105   1.03   .055
                  
. Min    yr  rest  ORt   DRt   O/D  - tm
Towns    16   0   113   109   1.04   .046
Towns    16   1   113   108   1.05  -.003
Towns    16  2.3  106   105   1.01  -.036
                  
. Den    yr  rest  ORt   DRt   O/D   -tm
Jokic    16   0   112   105   1.07  -.031
Jokic    16   1   120   106   1.13   .018
Jokic    16  2.3  114   106   1.08  -.030
                  
. NOP    yr  rest  ORt   DRt   O/D   -tm
Davis    13   0   108   110    .98  -.055
Davis    13   1   115   104   1.11   .020
Davis    13  2.3  108   102   1.06   .015

The 2.3 days of rest actually reads "2 or 3", or 2+ days.

The final column shows the player's variation from his season O/D, relative to the team's variation, on X days' rest.
-- While Doncic in back-to-backs is .060 below his season avg ORt/DRt, the Mavs as a team are even worse at -.077
Thus his 0-rest deficit is actually .017 better than the whole team's. Which causes which is unknown.

Rookie Anthony Davis shows the biggest dropoff @ 0 days rest, relative to team and to his season.
Towns was abnormally strong without rest. Donovan Mitchell the biggest beneficiary of a 2nd day off.
One day off looks optimal for 3 of the 5.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2016

[Crow]

He fought for it and had a triple double but too many 3pt misses, turnovers and presumably defensive issues did them in tonight. 29 pts on 36 possessions. Barely 0.8 pts / poss. Rest of team much better. Game lost with him on the court.

[Crow]

Doncic continues to slip on RPM estimate. Down to 1.25. RPM is his best mark imo. Not the per game stuff. It does appear he makes things easier on offense for others AND THAT IS HIS BEST QUALITY NOT HIS DIRECT INEFFICIENT OFFENSE (when you recognize the turnover element).

Doncic has the worst on the court raw plus minus of any Mav over 900 minutes for season. That he has a positive RPM is a positive for him. The raw plus minus is a tribute to Carlisle's tanking and / or poor lineup management. Negative on 10 of 10 most used player pairs. And all of the 10 most used trios and quads still possible. Only 5 man lineup of 10 most used and still possible that is positive is the current starters and just barely. That isn't the future.

[Crow]

Horrible shooting / scoring efficiency last night. Bad plus minus. Mavs lose.

Efg% for season is now below 50%. He is in 316th place on efg%. Under 43% in March.

Still at 23% from 3pt land in March. Under 33% for season.

[Crow]

If compared to league average, a players boxscore stats may contain pluses, minuses and variances of very minor impact. For Doncic, his efg% is .025 below league average. Over 16.4 shots per game he produces 4.1 less points than league average on those shots. Way below FT percentage, costs another 0.5 pts per game. TO/min at twice league average might appear to cost 2.5 more points but it would be less considering time with ball. Still these add up to a lot of lost points. He will offset these with assists, rebounds, more FTs and other stuff. Different metrics aggregate these impacts differently. But it is worth seeing some of the parts on their own. I am not aware of any national media that pays any attention to these weaknesses. There is an apparent assumption tha he'll improve all these things or even become elite at them all. He might or might not. Not til he does.

[Crow]

A lot of close stat similarities with current Russell Westbrook. That comparison is better than Nash or Magic or Bird. Current Westbrook with less defense. Less assists and rebounds too, at least til recently. More 3 attempts and makes but also well below average. Somewhat less turnovers but still high.

Last night was a triple double but with meh overall efficiency, 0 for 9 from 3 pt land, bad plus minus and another loss.

[Mike G]

.. For Doncic, his efg% is .025 below league average. Over 16.4 shots per game he produces 4.1 less points than league average on those shots. Way below FT percentage, costs another 0.5 pts per game...

FT at 71% is much better than anyone else shoots overall, so no, his FT do not "cost" anything; they're very good shots.
Drawing fouls on opponents is also a good thing.
Worse error is confusing .025 eFG% deficit with .250. The FGA "cost" .41 ppg, not 4.1

His TS% is .022 below nba, so his 19.2 TSA generate 0.54 fewer ppg than league avg.
This does not account for shots assisted vs not: 57% of his 3's and 80% of his 2's have been unassisted. How do other players shoot in these conditions?

[Crow]

His points per FT being lower than league average is a cost compared to that. There are different ways of looking at it. Having ball and driving is a good choice but it is also a privilege. If someone takes Doncic's place, they might also use it and might use it better. On average, the average player does score more from FT opportunities. Doncic's main credit is getting more of these shots. TS% was the simpler way to get at efficiency loss overall. I was interested in the parts and didnt calculate at TS% level. With those parts and the total TS% point loss I could calculate how much of his inefficiencies from field and FT are offset by a higher FTrate.

Thanks for catching my error on the cost of worse efg%. Oops.
Should have realized it was too high. Sometimes move too fast.

Unassisted shot tend to be tougher shots on average. But it is part choice and part necessity. Not sure exactly how much extra credit you should get. Some.

His inefficiencies in March are vastly bigger than for whole season.

[Crow]

Tonight, 19 points on 27 possessions used. Mavs lose and totally during his time on court.

[Crow]

Over last 10 games Doncic has by far the worst efg% of the top 9 guys in rotation and is in a fight with the 10th and 11th guy for worst to that depth. He has the worst 3pt fg% of anyone that has taken one, at 20%. Worst FT% in top 11. Second worst raw plus minus per game.

It would make sense to me to shut him down before injuries get worse. He is out tonight. He isn't going to improve his shooting / scoring efficiencies meaningfully at this point. Baring some massive hot streak, he'll end below league average on all of them for season.

80th in league on RPM estimate. So something between a poor #2 guy on a team and just an average #3 guy by estimated total impact, give that 5 guys above him are minor role players. But his role has been as the #1 guy. The only #1s with worse RPM are Booker, Lavine, Wall, Sexton and Young. And Knox if you consider him the #1 over Robinson.

Will he play next season like he started this season or how he ended it? Better or worse than these? Probably in middle but we'll see what he does in a role that isn't new... for him and defenders. It could be coincidence he finished last 2 seasons far less well than he started them as not that well known. Or not.

[Crow]

RPM estimate at just a touch above plus 1. Might still shift slightly as others still play.