2019 playoff summaries

[Mike G]

Here's a data dump of 1st round winners' stats, from b-r.com and moi.

Code: Select all

Rd 1 vs Ind        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Kyrie Irving      Bos   148   20.9   .224   .69   7.4   .38   2.49   .77
Jayson Tatum      Bos   142   15.5   .140   .41   2.0   .12   1.52   .45
Al Horford        Bos   138   11.0   .086   .25   2.5   .18   1.28   .37
Gordon Hayward    Bos   124   13.4   .174   .45   3.2   .18    .94   .24
Jaylen Brown      Bos   117   11.6   .150   .37   1.8   .11   1.05   .26

Marcus Morris     Bos   105   13.8   .169   .37   -.8   .02   1.10   .24
Aron Baynes       Bos    77    7.1   .142   .23   3.7   .11    .22   .04
Terry Rozier      Bos    75   11.4   .094   .15   2.6   .10    .91   .14
Daniel Theis      Bos    27    6.5   .108   .06  -4.9  -.01   -.08   .00

Rd 1 vs SAS        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Nikola Jokic      Den   261   31.1   .289  1.60  13.2  1.00   2.87  1.56
Gary Harris       Den   240   16.2   .139   .70   1.8   .22    .90   .45
Jamal Murray      Den   230   18.0   .077   .40    .1   .12   1.31   .63
Paul Millsap      Den   214   10.3   .050   .20  -3.3  -.08    .32   .14
Malik Beasley     Den   157   13.0   .076   .20  -1.7   .01    .56   .18

Torrey Craig      Den   155   15.6   .154   .50   3.4   .21    .87   .28
Will Barton       Den   155    6.6  -.088  -.30  -6.6  -.19    .38   .12
Monte Morris      Den   141   14.9   .066   .20  -2.3   .00    .79   .23
Mason Plumlee     Den   104   14.6   .132   .30   1.6   .10    .59   .13

Rd 1 vs LAC        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Kevin Durant       GS   218   30.9   .291  1.32   8.3   .59   2.47  1.12
Klay Thompson      GS   216   12.8   .076   .34  -1.0   .08    .60   .27
Draymond Green     GS   213   15.4   .113   .50   3.2   .29   1.12   .50
Stephen Curry      GS   201   24.8   .249  1.04   6.7   .42   1.97   .83
Andre Iguodala     GS   154   19.0   .184   .59   5.3   .29   1.09   .35

Kevon Looney       GS   108   17.2   .195   .44   1.6   .10    .84   .19
Andrew Bogut       GS    88   20.9   .245   .45   6.8   .20   1.66   .30
Shaun Livingston   GS    77    4.6   .001   .00  -4.3  -.02   -.01   .00
DeMarcus Cousins   GS    25    6.2  -.130  -.07  -4.9  -.01    .93   .05
Quinn Cook         GS    42    9.6   .005   .00  -5.5  -.02    .37   .03

Alfonzo McKinnie   GS    58   13.6   .134   .16  -4.9  -.02    .58   .07
Jacob Evans        GS    10   13.2   .019   .00   -.7   .00    .47   .01
Jonas Jerebko      GS    16    5.3  -.013   .00  -1.9   .00    .54   .02
Jordan Bell        GS    15   10.8   .025   .01  -2.2   .00    .54   .02

Rd 1 vs Uta        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
James Harden      Hou   182   22.0   .145   .55   9.3   .51   3.00  1.14
P.J. Tucker       Hou   179   14.4   .201   .75   5.9   .38   1.08   .40
Eric Gordon       Hou   176   12.7   .127   .47   3.0   .21    .76   .28
Chris Paul        Hou   165   18.8   .145   .50   6.2   .32   1.89   .65
Clint Capela      Hou   158   17.6   .194   .64   4.0   .22   1.54   .51

Danuel House      Hou   115    5.9   .046   .11  -2.2   .00   -.11  -.03
Austin Rivers     Hou    87    7.4   .083   .15  -1.8   .00   -.12  -.02
Gerald Green      Hou    55    8.0   .074   .08  -2.5   .00    .07   .01
Kenneth Faried    Hou    51   24.0   .366   .39   3.3   .09   1.92   .20
Iman Shumpert     Hou    17   -3.1  -.049  -.02  -6.1  -.01  -1.12  -.04

Rd 1 vs Det        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Brook Lopez       Mil   119   17.7   .234   .58   7.4   .29   1.27   .32
Khris Middleton   Mil   118   21.4   .274   .67   4.8   .20   1.80   .44
G Antetokounmpo   Mil   113   31.3   .310   .73   7.3   .28   3.03   .71
Eric Bledsoe      Mil   111   28.4   .321   .74   9.8   .32   2.27   .52
Pat Connaughton   Mil   111   16.0   .217   .50   5.5   .21    .89   .21

Sterling Brown    Mil   103   17.0   .248   .53   7.7   .28   1.25   .27
George Hill       Mil    92   15.9   .238   .46   3.3   .11    .94   .18
Ersan Ilyasova    Mil    81   11.3   .187   .32   3.1   .10    .75   .13
Nikola Mirotic    Mil    60    8.1   .043   .05  -4.1  -.01    .26   .03
D.J. Wilson       Mil    27   11.9   .098   .06   -.6   .01    .66   .04

Tim Frazier       Mil    20   17.2   .235   .10   2.4   .01   1.40   .06
Tony Snell        Mil     6   -9.3  -.108  -.01  -7.0   .00  -1.01  -.01

Rd 1 vs Brk        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Tobias Harris     Phl   176   19.9   .228   .84   4.7   .30   1.63   .60
Ben Simmons       Phl   167   22.9   .217   .75   6.5   .38   1.77   .61
Jimmy Butler      Phl   157   20.2   .200   .65   4.5   .28   1.35   .44
J.J. Redick       Phl   143    6.6   .027   .08  -4.4  -.09    .11   .03
Joel Embiid       Phl    97   39.0   .360   .73  13.3   .39   4.14   .84

Mike Scott        Phl   118    5.5   .056   .14  -1.9   .00   -.02  -.01
James Ennis       Phl    73   11.3   .099   .15   1.0   .08    .40   .06
Boban Marjanovic  Phl    77   24.8   .224   .36   5.4   .12   2.02   .32
T.J. McConnell    Phl    53   17.2   .189   .21   -.3   .01    .88   .10
Greg Monroe       Phl    41   19.4   .152   .13   1.3   .02   1.52   .13

Jonathon Simmons  Phl    34   10.7   .034   .02  -5.9  -.02    .67   .05
Furkan Korkmaz    Phl    24   12.5   .098   .05  -4.0  -.01    .93   .05
Jonah Bolden      Phl    39     .7  -.052  -.04  -9.2  -.08   -.31  -.03

Rd 1 vs OKC        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Damian Lillard    Por   199   26.9   .244  1.01   9.5   .59   2.67  1.11
CJ McCollum       Por   183   19.7   .151   .58   3.4   .23   1.90   .72
Maurice Harkless  Por   150   13.0   .110   .34   1.7   .12    .83   .26
Al-Farouq Aminu   Por   148   14.0   .150   .46   3.7   .21   1.02   .32
Enes Kanter       Por   147   21.3   .224   .69   5.7   .30   1.84   .56

Rodney Hood       Por    99    1.5  -.018  -.04  -2.9  -.01   -.66  -.14
Seth Curry        Por    90   11.5   .122   .23   3.2   .11    .19   .04
Zach Collins      Por    68   12.4   .099   .14   2.8   .09    .46   .07
Evan Turner       Por    56   -1.3  -.130  -.15  -6.5  -.08   -.29  -.03
Meyers Leonard    Por    47    9.2   .091   .09  -5.8  -.02    .14   .01

Rd 1 vs Orl        tm   Min   PER   WS/48    WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
Pascal Siakam     Tor   188   21.5   .236   .92   5.5   .38   1.94   .76
Kyle Lowry        Tor   177   15.0   .172   .63   4.8   .30   1.31   .48
Kawhi Leonard     Tor   170   28.6   .305  1.08   9.7   .50   2.72   .96
Danny Green       Tor   143    9.1   .120   .36   4.0   .21    .54   .16
Marc Gasol        Tor   129   19.3   .291   .78  10.8   .41   1.58   .42

Fred VanVleet     Tor   115    9.0   .094   .23  -2.1   .00    .57   .14
Serge Ibaka       Tor   103   17.9   .216   .46   4.1   .18   1.50   .32
Norman Powell     Tor    96   16.2   .198   .40   3.1   .11   1.07   .21
Jodie Meeks       Tor    32   -2.6  -.150  -.10  -9.9  -.08    .00   .00
Patrick McCaw     Tor    11    3.0   .097   .02   1.4   .00   -.35  -.01

Jeremy Lin        Tor    12   -1.1  -.166  -.04 -12.8  -.02   -.13   .00
Malcolm Miller    Tor    11  -12.4  -.227  -.05 -15.9  -.02   -.84  -.02

Sorry for inconsistent minutes cutoffs; and I must have sorted by Min/G. Anyway, these are handy for extracting the numbers in later series.

[Mike G]

Roughly converting VORP to "wins", averaging that with Win Shares and eWins; dividing by games played; for a top 30 in 1st-round wins per game:

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W/G      Round 1      tm    Min    PER   WS/48   WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.180   Nikola Jokic   Den   261   31.1   .289  1.60  13.2  1.00   2.87  1.56
.160   Damian Lillard Por   199   26.9   .244  1.01   9.5   .59   2.67  1.11
.147   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   170   28.6   .305  1.08   9.7   .50   2.72   .96
.145   Kevin Durant    GS   218   30.9   .291  1.32   8.3   .59   2.47  1.12
.141   Joel Embiid    Phl    97   39.0   .360   .73  13.3   .39   4.14   .84

.133   Kyrie Irving   Bos   148   20.9   .224   .69   7.4   .38   2.49   .77
.132   James Harden   Hou   182   22.0   .145   .55   9.3   .51   3.00  1.14
.120   Antetokounmpo  Mil   113   31.3   .310   .73   7.3   .28   3.03   .71
.117   Pascal Siakam  Tor   188   21.5   .236   .92   5.5   .38   1.94   .76
.114   Eric Bledsoe   Mil   111   28.4   .321   .74   9.8   .32   2.27   .52

W/G      Round 1      tm    Min    PER   WS/48   WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.108   Stephen Curry   GS   201   24.8   .249  1.04   6.7   .42   1.97   .83
.103   Ben Simmons    Phl   167   22.9   .217   .75   6.5   .38   1.77   .61
.099   Marc Gasol     Tor   129   19.3   .291   .78  10.8   .41   1.58   .42
.097   Tobias Harris  Phl   176   19.9   .228   .84   4.7   .30   1.63   .60
.094   P.J. Tucker    Hou   179   14.4   .201   .75   5.9   .38   1.08   .40

.090   Brook Lopez    Mil   119   17.7   .234   .58   7.4   .29   1.27   .32
.090  Khris Middleton Mil   118   21.4   .274   .67   4.8   .20   1.80   .44
.088   Enes Kanter    Por   147   21.3   .224   .69   5.7   .30   1.84   .56
.087   Chris Paul     Hou   165   18.8   .145   .50   6.2   .32   1.89   .65
.084   Kyle Lowry     Tor   177   15.0   .172   .63   4.8   .30   1.31   .48

W/G      Round 1      tm    Min    PER   WS/48   WS   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.083   CJ McCollum    Por   183   19.7   .151   .58   3.4   .23   1.90   .72
.083   Sterling Brown Mil   103   17.0   .248   .53   7.7   .28   1.25   .27
.080   Rudy Gobert    Uta   152   20.5   .187   .59   6.7   .32   1.33   .42
.080   Jimmy Butler   Phl   157   20.2   .200   .65   4.5   .28   1.35   .44
.080   DeMar DeRozan   SA   251   23.3   .152   .80   3.2   .32   1.75   .92

.076   Derrick Favors Uta   103   27.9   .251   .54   8.7   .29   2.13   .46
.076   Shabazz Napier Brk    28   47.6   .639   .37  19.1   .17   3.70   .22
.076   Clint Capela   Hou   158   17.6   .194   .64   4.0   .22   1.54   .51
.073   Paul George     OK   204   18.8   .108   .46   1.7   .20   1.63   .69
.071   Blake Griffin  Det    58   25.3   .091   .11   7.9   .12   1.86   .22

Griffin was pretty good when he played; and Shabazz led the Nets?

[Mike G]

...these are handy for extracting the numbers in later series.

For example, Bos vs Mil through 2 games:

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Celtics   mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
J Brown    35   14.6   .120    1.0    .73
Irving     32   13.6  -.064   -0.6   1.33
Horford    31   21.8   .155    6.4   1.88
Hayward    31   11.0   .095    2.0    .24
M Morris   28   25.1   .306   10.5   1.89

J Tatum    27    2.1  -.103   -5.3    .07
Rozier     23   14.9   .150    3.1   1.24
Baynes     10   13.7   .152    4.7    .36
               
totals    215   14.8   .095    2.5   1.02
correl. w Min    .07   -.21   -.20    .27
               
Bucks      mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Middleton  34   23.1   .219    6.5   2.08
Giannis A  33   24.0   .164    3.2   2.24
Conna'ton  27    3.8  -.015   -3.4    .16
Bledsoe    26   21.1   .191    6.3   1.41
Lopez      25    3.3  -.020   -3.9   -.08

G Hill     25   13.9   .146    0.7    .45
Mirotic    23   20.3   .225    5.8   1.50
Ilyasova   18   15.2   .125    0.8    .82
S Brown    18   -7.8  -.217  -12.0   -.86
               
totals    227   14.2   .104    1.1    .99
correl. w Min    .59    .51    .55    .71
               
average =       15.0   .100    0.0   1.00

[Mike G]

GS-Hou after 2 games:

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Warriors  min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Durant     44   19.3   .112  -1.5   1.49
Thompson   42   11.4   .051   0.4    .64
Green      40   21.7   .187   9.5   1.65
Curry      35   17.4   .156   4.8   1.35
Iguodala   34   21.6   .220   8.9   1.34

Looney     16   15.0   .147   6.0    .61
Livingston 14    9.1   .057  -3.2    .27
McKinnie    9    4.3   .024 -11.2    .09
Jerebko     5   21.4   .206   0.9   1.77
Bogut       4   23.6   .191   4.1   1.49

totals    240   17.0   .134   3.2    .88
corr. w min.     .14   -.03   .35    .22
               
Rockets   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tucker     41    9.6   .098   3.3    .23
Paul       38   18.5   .104   3.3   1.10
Gordon     37   15.1   .018  -3.5    .73
Harden     37   24.1   .110   3.0   2.07
Capela     30   16.5   .169   2.5   1.03

House      13   -4.4  -.231 -16.3   -.75
Shumpert   13   -3.8  -.132  -6.9   -.39
Rivers     12   15.3   .065  -1.8    .91
Green       9   16.1   .119  -0.9    .64
Faried      3   11.7  -.071   1.1    .27

totals    231   14.1   .063   0.0    .79
corr. w min.     .44    .53   .45    .50

[Mike G]

A bit late but 2nd-round leaders, after converting PER and BPM to "wins" and averaging the 4. Wins per game.

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W/G     2nd round     tm   mpg   e484    PER   BPM  WS/48
.227   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   40   3.33   31.7   9.4   .278
.211   Antetokounmpo  Mil   34   3.52   31.0  13.0   .312
.200   Nikola Jokic   Den   42   2.29   28.3  10.8   .242
.185   James Harden   Hou   40   2.42   27.8   7.9   .222
.143   Jimmy Butler   Phl   38   1.98   21.8   6.3   .194

.116   Draymond Green GSW   40   1.41   17.5   5.8   .134
.115   Jamal Murray   Den   40   1.44   20.7   2.8   .156
.115   Marcus Morris  Bos   30   1.63   21.3   7.2   .232
.108   Kevin Durant   GSW   35   1.76   22.4   1.6   .139
.106   Damian Lillard Por   41   1.43   19.6   3.6   .090

W/G     2nd round     tm   mpg   e484    PER   BPM  WS/48
.101   Andre Iguodala GSW   35   1.08   18.0   6.5   .158
.100   Pascal Siakam  Tor   35   1.72   19.0   1.8   .144
.100   CJ McCollum    Por   42   1.36   19.7   1.3   .094
.096   George Hill    Mil   25   1.41   20.9   5.7   .269
.095   Chris Paul     Hou   39   1.18   16.7   2.9   .124

.095   P.J. Tucker    Hou   41    .70   14.1   5.0   .142
.095  Khris Middleton Mil   35   1.53   15.6   3.0   .141
.091   Paul Millsap   Den   36   1.26   18.9   1.1   .138
.090   Al Horford     Bos   34   1.29   16.9   4.1   .120
.088   Ben Simmons    Phl   36    .98   14.9   4.8   .126

W/G     2nd round     tm   mpg   e484    PER   BPM  WS/48
.079   Stephen Curry  GSW   39   1.23   15.5   0.6   .075
.077   Rodney Hood    Por   24   1.28   22.2   2.3   .218
.073   Nikola Mirotic Mil   25   1.23   16.2   3.9   .184
.071   Kyle Lowry     Tor   39    .90   12.4   1.0   .101
.068   Joel Embiid    Phl   34   1.34   14.9   1.0   .063

Correlations of stat to mpg:
eW/484 : .63
PER : .541
BPM : .539
WS/48 : .44

[Mike G]

Blazers over 3 rounds:

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Blazers  rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Aminu    1   148   14.0   .150    3.7   1.02
Aminu    2   189   10.1   .009   -0.8    .48
Aminu    3    62    6.7  -.058   -6.5    .50

McCollum 1   183   19.7   .151    3.4   1.90
McCollum 2   293   19.7   .094    1.3   1.36
McCollum 3   159   12.9  -.032   -1.5    .76

Lillard  1   199   26.9   .244    9.5   2.67
Lillard  2   289   19.6   .090    3.6   1.43
Lillard  3   162   15.0   .021    1.2   1.02

Blazers  rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Kanter   1   147   21.3   .224    5.7   1.84
Kanter   2   245   14.7   .067   -1.5    .81
Kanter   3    69   16.5   .012   -4.8   1.07

Turner   1    56   -1.3  -.130   -6.5   -.29
Turner   2   102   15.0   .153    2.0   1.05
Turner   3    87    8.9  -.001   -3.5    .23

Harkless 1   150   13.0   .110    1.7    .83
Harkless 2   143   12.4   .055    3.7    .68
Harkless 3    95   20.1   .144    4.3   1.13

Blazers  rd  min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Leonard  1    47    9.2   .091   -5.8    .14
Leonard  2    35   10.4   .044    1.9    .85
Leonard  3    88   24.2   .231    5.8   1.74

Hood     1    99    1.5  -.018   -2.9   -.66
Hood     2   170   22.2   .218    2.3   1.28
Hood     3   104   12.4   .077    0.4    .25

Curry    1    90   11.5   .122    3.2    .19
Curry    2   143    5.0  -.008   -3.5   -.18
Curry    3    93   10.7   .046    1.6    .20

Collins  1    68   12.4   .099    2.8    .46
Collins  2   148   17.2   .127    4.1   1.11
Collins  3    59   10.1  -.013   -3.3    .39

correl. w min       .49    .28    .38    .48

[Mike G]

How the Bucks went thru 3 rounds:

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rd   Bucks    min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e484
1   Lopez     119   17.7   .234    7.4   1.27
2   Lopez     126    3.1   .012   -1.4   -.23
3   Lopez     193   18.6   .195    5.4   1.43

1   Bledsoe   111   28.4   .321    9.8   2.27
2   Bledsoe   135   11.3   .026   -1.0    .78
3   Bledsoe   177    7.5  -.030   -3.5    .36

1   Ilyasova   81   11.3   .187    3.1    .75
2   Ilyasova   93   16.0   .189    4.2   1.02
3   Ilyasova   98   17.7   .188    4.8    .76

rd   Bucks    min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e484
1   Hill       92   15.9   .238    3.3    .94
2   Hill      126   20.9   .269    5.7   1.41
3   Hill      177   17.9   .200    6.3    .95

1   Giannis   113   31.3   .310    7.3   3.03
2   Giannis   170   31.0   .312   13.0   3.52
3   Giannis   231   20.9   .106    6.7   2.03

1  Middleton  118   21.4   .274    4.8   1.80
2  Middleton  177   15.6   .141    3.0   1.53
3  Middleton  220   10.6   .065    0.2    .64

rd   Bucks    min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e484
2   Brogdon    17   24.3   .290    6.1   2.23
3   Brogdon   181   13.5   .105    1.3    .84

1   Mirotic    60    8.1   .043   -4.1    .26
2   Mirotic   127   16.2   .184    3.9   1.23
3   Mirotic   111    9.3   .005   -3.8    .35

1  Conna'ton  111   16.0   .217    5.5    .89
2  Conna'ton  143    9.6   .093    0.5    .62
3  Conna'ton   70   18.4   .147    4.1    .79

1   Brown     103   17.0   .248    7.7   1.25
2   Brown      48   -6.0  -.158  -10.5   -.90
3   Brown      11   24.4   .016   -6.9    .91