2019 Finals: Warriors - Raptors

[Mike G]

Exclusive to this forum! advanced b-r.com stats and eWins by playoff round:

Code: Select all

rd   Raps    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Green    143    9.1   .120    4.0    .54
2   Green    231    8.6   .094    0.9    .15
3   Green    147    4.5  -.020   -0.7   -.19

1  VanVleet  115    9.0   .094   -2.1    .57
2  VanVleet  118    2.5  -.044   -3.9   -.39
3  VanVleet  164   10.5   .082   -0.6    .49

1   Leonard  170   28.6   .305    9.7   2.72
2   Leonard  278   31.7   .278    9.4   3.33
3   Leonard  248   25.4   .209    7.5   2.36

rd   Raps    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Lowry    177   15.0   .172    4.8   1.31
2   Lowry    271   12.4   .101    1.0    .90
3   Lowry    224   18.8   .204    6.7   1.71

1   Gasol    129   19.3   .291   10.8   1.58
2   Gasol    243   10.9   .121    2.2    .59
3   Gasol    190   10.8   .065    3.1    .85

1   Powell    96   16.2   .198    3.1   1.07
3   Powell   137   12.9   .073   -0.8    .78
3   Powell    67   13.0   .118   -1.5    .49

rd   Raps    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Siakam   188   21.5   .236    5.5   1.94
2   Siakam   242   19.0   .144    1.8   1.72
3   Siakam   221   12.1   .054    1.3    .68

1   Ibaka    103   17.9   .216    4.1   1.50
2   Ibaka    154    9.6   .041   -5.2    .42
3   Ibaka    127   13.2   .063   -2.1    .70

All stats agree Siakam and Green are trending downward. Less unanimous re Gasol and Powell.
Lowry, Ibaka, and VanVleet once were down but now are up.

Draymond and Livingston are steadily rising by all measures.

Code: Select all

rd   Dubs    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Bell      15   10.8   .025   -2.2    .54
2   Bell      11   24.0   .294   11.3   1.35
3   Bell      54   21.7   .213    3.6   1.42

1   Bogut     88   20.9   .245    6.8   1.66
2   Bogut     22    8.9   .015   -3.7    .40
3   Bogut     24   18.5   .249    9.2   1.39

1   Cook      42    9.6   .005   -5.5    .37
2   Cook      16    7.1  -.024   -4.1    .37
3   Cook      47   10.6   .052   -5.1    .25

rd   Dubs    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Curry    201   24.8   .249    6.7   1.97
2   Curry    236   15.5   .075    0.6   1.23
3   Curry    158   31.1   .306   10.6   2.76

1   Durant   218   30.9   .291    8.3   2.47
2   Durant   212   22.4   .139    1.6   1.76

1   Green    213   15.4   .113    3.2   1.12
2   Green    241   17.5   .134    5.8   1.41
3   Green    149   22.3   .185    9.1   2.03

rd   Dubs    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1  Iguodala  154   19.0   .184    5.3   1.09
2  Iguodala  208   18.0   .158    6.5   1.08
3  Iguodala   79    9.5   .073    1.0    .43

1   Jerebko   16    5.3  -.013   -1.9    .54
2   Jerebko   31    7.9   .013   -3.7    .20
3   Jerebko   48   12.8   .098    0.1    .73

1  Liv'ston   77    4.6   .001   -4.3   -.01
2  Liv'ston   80   11.7   .099   -1.9    .33
3  Liv'ston   67   15.9   .205    2.2    .57

rd   Dubs    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
1   Looney   108   17.2   .195    1.6    .84
2   Looney   110   17.6   .177    5.0    .78
3   Looney   110   22.3   .255    7.8   1.11

1  McKinnie   58   13.6   .134   -4.9    .58
2  McKinnie   50    3.0  -.019   -5.1   -.26
3  McKinnie   70   12.0   .121   -1.2    .39

1  Thompson  216   12.8   .076   -1.0    .60
2  Thompson  249   12.8   .042    0.9    .74
3  Thompson  165   10.6   .000   -3.4    .74

Is Klay Thompson the worst player on the team (WS)? Or a steady contributor (eW)?

[Mike G]

In the conference finals, the GSW outscored Por, a +4.4 SRS team in the RS, by 9.6 pts/100 poss. This you would expect of a +14.0 SRS team.
MIl was a +8.0 SRS team that Tor outscored by 1.0 pts/100 -- making them +9.0 for the series.
But in just the last 4 games by each team, it was +7.5 MOV for Tor, or 15.5 SRS equivalent vs 14.0 by GS.

I expect a 7 game series, and the Raptors have a good chance to win it. B-R.com gives them 48% chance...
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoffs.html
... and they don't factor in the injuries to Durant and Cousins.

Raps about 1.3 pts/100 better in their last 26 games, with Marc Gasol.
Also, in the ECF, Kyle Lowry was Kawhi Leonard's equal in both Win Shares and VORP/BPM.

Reason for these comments is that only 2 of the 21 'experts' at espn pick the Raps to win, while 3 picked the Dubs in 5.
edit after G1: b-r.com link above now shows Tor as 61-39 favorites.

[Mike G]

Raptors 1 , Warriors 0
118 - 109
Pyth wins .74 - .26 , eWins .62 - .38

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Pascal Siakam  Tor   39  .889   38.8   8.9   5.4   .9   1.9  1.9   2.92
.14   Stephen Curry   GS   41  .680   29.7   5.3   4.1   .9   2.8   .0   1.62
.13   Marc Gasol     Tor   30  .769   28.4  10.3   1.5  2.5    .0  1.2   2.14
.11   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   43  .575   18.5   8.0   5.1   .8   1.7   .0   1.26
.05   Kyle Lowry     Tor   36  .350    4.9   7.3  12.1  1.0   3.1   .0    .73

.05   Draymond Green  GS   40  .417    6.4  10.9   9.8   .9   5.8   .0    .59
.05   Andre Iguodala  GS   29  .429    5.5   9.2   9.7   .0   2.7  1.3    .77
.05   Danny Green    Tor   29  .611   13.6   3.0   1.6  1.3    .0  2.6    .75
.04   Klay Thompson   GS   39  .583   16.9   5.6   1.0   .0   2.0   .0    .48
.03 Shaun Livingston  GS   17  .429    8.2   9.4   2.1  2.0    .0  2.0    .80

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Fred VanVleet  Tor   33  .682   16.8   1.3   2.5   .0   1.1   .0    .40
.02   Jonas Jerebko   GS    8  .750   24.4   4.9    .0   .0    .0   .0   1.10
.01   Quinn Cook      GS    9  .667   20.7    .0   3.8   .0    .0   .0    .79
.01   Jordan Bell     GS   12  .500    4.9  11.4   3.3   .0    .0   .0    .51
.01 DeMarcus Cousins  GS    8  .375    8.3    .0   8.5  8.2   4.3   .0    .69

.01 Alfonzo McKinnie  GS    8  .750   25.3   4.9    .0   .0   4.3   .0    .65
.01   Patrick McCaw  Tor    7  .750   15.8    .0   5.8   .0    .0   .0    .70
.01   Kevon Looney    GS   28  .750   11.4   4.4   1.3  1.2   1.3   .0    .17
.00   Norman Powell  Tor    5  .500   10.9   7.7    .0   .0    .0   .0    .14
-.00  Serge Ibaka    Tor   17  .313    6.2   7.0   2.6   .0   3.9  2.0   -.08

shooting: Tor .634 - .583 GS
rebounds: GS 38 - 36 Tor
turnovers: Tor 10 - 17 GS

[Mike G]

Some improbable stats are recreated for a single game.

Code: Select all

Dubs    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
Curry    41   25.9   .220   8.4   1.62    .19   .11   .14
Green    40    5.1  -.099  -5.6    .59   -.08  -.04   .05
Thompson 39   10.6  -.009  -2.6    .48   -.01  -.01   .04
Iguodala 29   10.3   .005   0.2    .77    .00   .02   .05
Looney   28   11.5   .055   2.3    .17    .03   .03   .01

Liv'ston 17   13.3   .067   1.3    .80    .02   .01   .03
Bell     12   10.8   .072  -1.0    .51    .02   .00   .01
Cook      9   19.8   .168   0.0    .79    .03   .00   .01
McKinnie  8   14.7  -.052  -8.2    .65   -.01  -.01   .01
Cousins   8   14.3   .053  11.3    .69    .01   .03   .01
Jerebko   8   26.7   .275   6.2   1.10    .05   .02   .02

totals  239   13.7   .051   0.7    .76    .25   .16   .38

Without Curry, this was a lottery team.
In 30 minutes, Marc Gasol's postseason ws/48 went from .141 to .157, bpm from 4.5 to 5.1
Other astounding results, too.

Code: Select all

Raps    min   PER   WS/48    BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
Leonard  43   15.0   .036    1.9   1.26    .03   .04   .11
Siakam   39   33.3   .291   13.3   2.92    .24   .15   .24
Lowry    36   11.3   .112    3.9    .73    .08   .05   .05
VanVleet 33   24.6   .377    8.4    .40    .26   .09   .03
Gasol    30   30.6   .445   16.3   2.14    .28   .14   .13

Green    29   11.4   .030    5.1    .75    .02   .05   .05
Ibaka    17   -5.9  -.252  -13.5   -.08   -.09  -.05   .00
McCaw     7   17.9   .193   -2.7    .70    .03   .00   .01
Powell    5   14.0   .120  -11.9    .14    .01  -.01   .00
              
totals  239   18.9   .172    5.9   1.26    .83   .46   .61

[Crow]

Some talented streetball players out there.

The coaching? I am not sure.

[Mike G]

Raptors 1 , Warriors 1
avg score 111 - 109
Pyth wins 1.12 - .88 , eWins 1.06 - .94

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.36   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   41  .594   26.7  10.7   3.4    .9   3.1   .4   2.10
.29   Pascal Siakam  Tor   40  .579   20.4   8.0   4.7    .5    .9   .9   1.74
.27   Stephen Curry   GS   41  .613   24.6   3.8   4.0   1.8   1.9   .0   1.59
.20   Klay Thompson   GS   36  .639   23.1   5.5   3.2    .5   1.7   .0   1.39
.16   Draymond Green  GS   41  .500   10.3   9.5   8.8   1.4   5.3   .5    .95

.15   Marc Gasol     Tor   31  .619   16.6   8.5   1.8   1.2   1.2  1.2   1.16
.13   Andre Iguodala  GS   29  .467    7.2   9.5   8.8    .6   2.8  1.3   1.10
.10 DeMarcus Cousins  GS   18  .500   11.5  10.2   7.9   1.9   4.1  1.9   1.34
.08   Fred VanVleet  Tor   36  .561   15.4   2.6   2.0   1.5   1.5   .0    .53
.06   Serge Ibaka    Tor   17  .400    9.0  13.4   1.0   1.9   1.9  1.0    .81

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Danny Green    Tor   28  .594   13.0   5.1   1.4    .7   2.0  1.3    .48
.05   Kyle Lowry     Tor   32  .444    9.9   4.4   6.6   1.2   2.9   .0    .40
.04 Shaun Livingston  GS   17  .500    9.7   4.1   4.0   1.0   1.0  1.0    .51
.03   Quinn Cook      GS   16  .714   15.8   1.1   1.1    .0    .0  1.0    .42
.02   Jonas Jerebko   GS    7  .500   13.7   6.8    .0    .0    .0   .0    .54

.01   Jordan Bell     GS    6  .500    4.5   8.8   2.9    .0    .0   .0    .32
.01   Norman Powell  Tor   13  .500   10.0   2.6   2.5   1.2   1.2   .0    .14
-.01 Alfonzo McKinnie GS    9  .571   12.4   3.6   1.8    .0   3.6   .0   -.21
-.03  Kevon Looney    GS   19  .750    8.3   3.6    .9    .9   1.8   .0   -.35

shooting: GS .583 - .555 Tor
rebounds: Tor 42.5 - 40.0 GS
turnovers: Tor 12.5 - 16.5 GS

the other stats
Warriors

Code: Select all

dubs     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Green     81   10.4   .021   1.5   .04   .07
Curry     81   21.1   .195   6.1   .33   .16
Thompson  71   18.2   .111   2.1   .16   .07
Iguodala  57   12.4   .055   2.5   .07   .06
Looney    38    5.6   .016   0.0   .01   .02

Cousins   36   15.5   .115   3.3   .09   .05
Liv'ston  33   12.8   .089  -1.5   .06   .00
Cook      31   14.1   .144   1.0   .09   .02
McKinnie  18    4.6  -.077  -1.3  -.03   .00
Jerebko   14   14.7   .082  -2.3   .02   .00

Bell      12   10.8   .074  -1.8   .02   .00
Bogut      7   28.6   .329   7.5   .05   .02

totals   480   14.2   .091   2.1   .91   .49

Raptors

Code: Select all

Raps     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   WS   vorp
Leonard   82   23.0   .165   6.0   .28   .16
Siakam    80   19.2   .131   4.5   .22   .13
VanVleet  72   18.8   .204   5.8   .31   .14
Lowry     64    9.4   .062   0.5   .08   .04
Gasol     61   15.9   .192   5.5   .24   .11

Green     55    8.6   .006   1.3   .01   .05
Ibaka     34    9.3  -.003  -4.2   .00  -.02
Powell    26   11.5   .048  -3.5   .03  -.01
McCaw      7   17.9   .192  -2.7   .03   .00

totals   480   15.7   .119   3.0  1.19   .60

[Crow]

There are many stories at the finals. The return of Demarcus Cousins is one. Good for him for battling back and playing and contributing.

[Mike G]

Raptors 2 , Warriors 1
avg score 115.0 - 109.0
Pyth wins 2.01 - .99 , eWins 1.76 - 1.24

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.53   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   40  .617   28.1   9.6   4.4   1.2   3.5   .9   2.12
.50   Stephen Curry   GS   42  .615   29.0   5.0   4.2   1.8   2.2   .0   1.93
.38   Pascal Siakam  Tor   40  .564   18.6   8.4   5.5    .3   1.3   .6   1.53
.24   Marc Gasol     Tor   29  .632   19.3   9.2   3.2    .9   1.8   .8   1.35
.20   Kyle Lowry     Tor   36  .544   14.2   4.1   7.6   1.0   2.9   .3    .88

.19   Draymond Green  GS   41  .518   11.3   8.7   6.6   1.5   4.8   .3    .76
.19   Klay Thompson   GS   24  .639   23.0   5.5   2.9    .5   1.7   .0   1.28
.18   Andre Iguodala  GS   29  .521    8.8   8.9   6.5    .8   1.8   .8    .97
.17   Danny Green    Tor   27  .712   18.8   5.9   1.5    .9   1.9  1.3    .99
.12   Fred VanVleet  Tor   35  .589   14.2   2.9   2.2   2.0   1.0   .0    .56

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Serge Ibaka    Tor   18  .450    8.8  11.5   1.3   2.4   2.5  4.0   1.00
.07   Andrew Bogut    GS   10  .857   15.6   9.3   3.1   1.1   1.2  1.1   1.20
.07 DeMarcus Cousins  GS   18  .400    8.4   9.0   6.2   1.9   4.8  1.3    .63
.04 Shaun Livingston  GS   17  .471    8.3   4.3   3.8    .7    .7   .7    .33
.03   Jonas Jerebko   GS    8  .438   12.8   6.7   1.2    .0    .0   .0    .55

.02   Jordan Bell     GS    7  .667    5.8   7.9   1.4    .0    .0  2.9    .44
.01   Quinn Cook      GS   19  .600   12.5   1.2   1.6    .6   1.2   .6    .11
-.01  Norman Powell  Tor   11  .500    7.7   2.1   2.1   1.0   1.0   .0   -.11
-.02  Kevon Looney    GS   13  .750    8.3   3.6    .8    .9   1.8   .0   -.30
-.03 Alfonzo McKinnie GS   12  .478    7.5   4.6   1.7    .0   2.8   .0   -.38

shooting: Tor .590 - .558 GS
rebounds: Tor 41.7 - 40.3 GS
turnovers: Tor 13.7 - 16.0 GS

[Mike G]

With few exceptions, Warriors' stats were beat down last night.

Code: Select all

Dubs     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
Curry    125   25.7   .224   8.2   1.93    .58   .32   .50
Green    122   10.9   .002   0.4    .76    .01   .07   .19
Iguodala  88   14.4   .079   3.3    .97    .14   .12   .18
Thompson  71   18.2   .072   2.1   1.28    .11   .07   .19
Cook      57   10.3   .047  -2.8    .11    .06  -.01   .01

Cousins   55    7.5  -.043  -3.3    .63   -.05  -.02   .07
Liv'ston  51   10.5   .065  -3.7    .33    .07  -.02   .04
Looney    38    4.7  -.022  -1.9   -.30   -.02   .00  -.02
McKinnie  36    1.1  -.098  -4.1   -.38   -.07  -.02  -.03
Bogut     29   22.4   .225   7.2   1.20    .14   .07   .07

Jerebko   24   14.0   .051  -4.0    .55    .03  -.01   .03
Bell      22   13.5   .124   4.1    .44    .06   .03   .02

totals   718   13.9   .066   1.1    .83   1.00   .56  1.25
correl. w min   .35    .17   .37    .58    .57   .72   .84

Some disparities across the stats: Draymond has been nearly average (BPM, eWins) or nearly nothing (WS, PER); Iggy is good or very good (BPM). Cousins atrocious or okay (eW)...

Is Fred VV a superstar, very good, or so-so? Danny Green good or super (BPM)?

Code: Select all

Raps     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
Leonard  120   25.3   .206   8.1   2.12    .51   .30   .53
Siakam   119   18.0   .114   2.7   1.53    .28   .14   .38
Lowry    107   13.7   .118   1.7    .88    .26   .10   .20
VanVleet 105   17.7   .206   6.1    .56    .45   .21   .12
Gasol     87   17.3   .201   3.8   1.35    .36   .13   .24

Green     82   14.2   .106   5.0    .99    .18   .14   .17
Ibaka     55   13.8   .071   1.5   1.00    .08   .05   .11
Powell    32    8.8   .030  -5.9   -.11    .02  -.03  -.01
McCaw      9   17.7   .201  -3.9    .58    .04   .00   .01

totals   716   17.2   .146   3.7   1.17   2.19  1.03  1.76
correl. wmin    .79    .73   .78    .72    .85   .84   .81

Klay Thompson didn't play last night, but some of his numbers changed:

Code: Select all

Klay    PER   WS/48  BPM   e480
G 1-2   18.2  .111   2.1   1.39
+ G3    18.2  .072   2.1   1.28

Some stats are more stable than others.

[Mike G]

Raptors 3 , Warriors 1
avg score 112.5 - 104.8
Pyth wins 2.88 - 1.12 , eWins 2.44 - 1.56

Code: Select all

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.91   Kawhi Leonard  Tor   40  .634   29.7  10.1   3.6   1.8   2.7   .9   2.72
.64   Stephen Curry   GS   42  .593   25.7   4.7   4.2   1.5   2.4   .0   1.82
.49   Pascal Siakam  Tor   40  .555   18.0   7.5   4.1    .2   1.2   .7   1.47
.32   Marc Gasol     Tor   29  .605   17.0   9.4   3.3   1.0   1.7   .6   1.35
.32   Klay Thompson   GS   28  .685   23.2   4.6   2.3    .3   1.1   .0   1.36

.29   Draymond Green  GS   41  .535   10.4   8.9   7.2   1.4   4.9   .7    .85
.24   Kyle Lowry     Tor   36  .495   12.3   3.6   7.3   1.5   2.8   .2    .78
.23   Serge Ibaka    Tor   19  .585   15.7   9.9   1.3   1.7   2.3  3.6   1.43
.18   Andre Iguodala  GS   32  .452    6.2   7.6   5.1   1.5   1.9  1.1    .68
.16   Fred VanVleet  Tor   34  .560   12.7   3.3   3.2   1.5   1.4   .0    .56

eWins  per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   Danny Green    Tor   28  .588   13.1   5.3   1.4   1.7   2.1  1.0    .51
.07 DeMarcus Cousins  GS   18  .414    9.0   9.3   5.1   1.5   6.0  2.0    .50
.07   Andrew Bogut    GS   10  .857   10.4  11.9   2.1    .8   1.7   .8    .83
.05 Shaun Livingston  GS   17  .524    9.1   4.9   3.2   1.0   1.1   .5    .39
.03   Jonas Jerebko   GS    6  .438   12.4   6.6   1.1    .0    .0   .0    .54

.02   Jordan Bell     GS    6  .667    5.4   7.8   1.3    .0    .0  2.8    .40
-.01  Kevon Looney    GS   15  .633    9.5   5.9   1.0    .5   1.8   .0   -.08
-.02  Norman Powell  Tor   11  .450    5.3   2.3   2.2   1.4    .8   .0   -.23
-.03  Quinn Cook      GS   16  .480    9.1   1.6   1.3    .5   1.1   .5   -.21
-.06 Alfonzo McKinnie GS   11  .394    6.0   5.1   1.2    .0   2.2   .0   -.61

shooting: Tor .576 - .549 GS
rebounds: 40.8 - 40.8
turnovers: Tor 13.0 - 16.8 GS

[Mike G]

Raps are killing at the inside positions.
xyz is amalgam of WS, VORP, and eWins, scaled to 4.0 total wins.

Code: Select all

xyz    bigs   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48  BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
.93   Leonard Tor   40   28.2  .281  10.9   2.72    .94   .52   .91
.39   Siakam  Tor   40   16.9  .120   2.2   1.47    .40   .17   .49
.36   Gasol   Tor   29   16.3  .194   3.9   1.35    .46   .17   .32
.25   Ibaka   Tor   19   19.6  .173   5.5   1.43    .28   .14   .23
.20  Dr Green  GS   41   11.9  .026   1.0    .85    .09   .12   .29

.10   Bogut    GS   10   16.7  .159   3.7    .83    .13   .06   .07
.04   Bell     GS    6   14.0  .124   3.6    .40    .06   .03   .02
.01   Jerebko  GS    6   14.0  .046  -4.0    .54    .02  -.01   .03
-.01  Looney   GS   15    8.6  .019  -3.1   -.08    .02  -.02  -.01
-.04  Cousins  GS   18    6.5 -.090  -4.1    .50   -.13  -.04   .07

Short rotation is working beautifully for the north. If one guy is hurt, it would not fly.
On the perimeter, it favors the Dubs, in quality and quantity:

Code: Select all

xyz   smalls   tm   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     WS   vorp   eW
.63   Curry     GS   42   23.3   .186   6.2   1.82    .65   .34   .64
.34  VanVleet  Tor   34   15.6   .171   4.3    .56    .48   .21   .16
.31  Thompson   GS   28   19.5   .134   3.7   1.36    .32   .16   .32
.25   Lowry    Tor   36   12.4   .103   1.1    .78    .31   .11   .24
.18  Iguodala   GS   32   11.0   .039   2.4    .68    .10   .14   .18

.17  Da Green  Tor   28    9.3   .052   3.0    .51    .12   .14   .12
.06 Livingston  GS   17   12.7   .093  -1.9    .39    .13   .00   .05
.00   Powell   Tor   11    7.6   .051  -3.7   -.23    .05  -.02  -.02
-.06  Cook      GS   16    6.0  -.027  -5.9   -.21   -.04  -.06  -.03
-.10  McKinnie  GS   11   -0.9  -.127  -8.0   -.61   -.12  -.07  -.06

[Crow]

There is data here that you don't find in mainstream media. They don't seem interested in going that far. Would be easy to cite or seek simpler summary quotes. Oh well. Maybe you get a few per game stats for the series. Settle for that or go beyond the mainstream media on your own.

Warriors carried more big men on roster than any other team but got these poor big man results. Good that they had depth given injuries, but it appears they still ended up with a significant weakness. Apart from adding Bogut at the very end for modest playoff minutes, nothing was done the entire season to address this issue.

The discrepancies between various boxscore metrics shows how sensitive their ratings are to weights given to certain stats and to the adjustments made to cover stuff not covered by boxscore stats or the lack of such adjustments. There remains strong reason to look at these metrics collectively (as done here) and also consider RPM/RAPM which does not introduce questionable weights on certain stats, doesn't paper over boxscore omissions with subjective adjustments and is not explicitly lacking in consideration of any scoreboard impacts.

[Crow]

It appears that the most likely thing to save the Warriors (if it is not too late and if this would be sufficient) would be the return to above average team efg%. It is meh so far in this series.

Their shot distribution has been meh in the playoffs series generally. Probably in this series too, maybe worse than meh? Meh in regular season and let be that way. Sloppy practice, biting them now. High in 3 point fga rate in regular season but super weak on ftr and shots at rim. Playoff shot distribution adjusted but only to average distribution. May not be enough.

Raptors shot distribution is meh in playoffs too. They are just a bit hotter in this series. Neither side showing that much discipline or ability to get shots you "should' (imo) want to get. Maybe the defense deserves some of the credit but I am not that impressed with the offensive coaching.

The Warriors have become close to a one trick pony and not a good enough one at that. Lack of Durant, arrogance, slack coaching, poor shooting judgement, good defense, "luck", whatever. Their defense is not remotely close to what is was in 2018 playoffs.

The regular season and playoff data generally suggested the Raptors were the more well-rounded team. They have shown that so far this series too.

[Crow]

With almost an 8 point net margin the Raptors are looking good. I guess Durant could beat that on his own if he is at his best. But the most likely way the Warriors win would be some combination of Durant contribution, improved play by other Warriors and / or a decline by the Raptors. Probably need 2-3 of these things in general and probably in each game.

[Mike G]

Recap of participants thru 3 rounds and 4 games of Finals. The 2nd column is per game 'impact' in eWins/G.
Warriors:

Code: Select all

Bell     mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .003    3  .333    5.3   6.7   2.1   2.2    .0  2.0    .54
2  .005    2  .667   12.4   6.4   3.0    .0    .0  5.8   1.35
3  .039   14  .587   17.9   5.7   5.4   1.9   1.3  1.2   1.42
4  .005    6  .667    5.4   7.8   1.3    .0    .0  2.8    .40
                              
Bogut    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .051   15  .681   13.6  16.7   5.5    .8   2.0  1.2   1.66
2  .003    4  .250    1.7  15.4   1.7    .0   1.6  1.6    .39
3  .017    6  .750   11.3  15.0   4.7   3.0   3.1  1.4   1.39
4  .017   10  .857   10.4  11.9   2.1    .8   1.7   .8    .83
                              
Cook     mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .005    7  .500   12.9   4.0   2.3    .8   1.6   .0    .37
2  .002    3  .200    1.9   4.4   6.4   2.0    .0   .0    .37
3  .006   12  .588   13.6   4.1    .7    .0   1.4   .0    .25
4 -.007   16  .480    9.1   1.6   1.3    .5   1.1   .5   -.21
                              
Cousins  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .008    4  .393   12.4  17.0   7.4   1.5   9.1   .0    .93
-
4  .018   18  .414    9.0   9.3   5.1   1.5   6.0  2.0    .50
                              
Curry    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .138   34  .695   28.7   7.5   5.3   1.3   3.1   .3   1.97
2  .099   39  .532   20.6   4.8   5.0    .9   2.8   .2   1.23
3  .221   40  .652   38.4   7.7   6.8    .5   3.3   .0   2.76
4  .159   42  .593   25.7   4.7   4.2   1.5   2.4   .0   1.82
                              
Durant   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .187   36  .702   38.1   5.5   4.9   1.5   4.2  1.1   2.47
2  .127   35  .576   28.1   4.7   3.9    .7   2.9   .7   1.76
                              
Green    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .083   36  .507   10.5   8.3   7.9   1.0   2.8  1.8   1.12
2  .115   40  .598   12.2  10.7   7.8   1.1   3.0   .8   1.40
3  .154   37  .579   17.1  11.7   9.1   2.2   4.3  2.5   2.03
4  .072   41  .535   10.4   8.9   7.2   1.4   4.9   .7    .85
                              
Iguodala  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .058   26  .566   12.2   5.3   6.0   1.6    .9  1.5   1.09
2  .077   35  .653   15.1   5.5   3.7   1.2    .9   .9   1.08
3  .017   20  .357    3.4   6.2   5.7   1.9   1.5   .9    .43
4  .045   32  .452    6.2   7.6   5.1   1.5   1.9  1.1    .68
                              
Jerebko  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .003    3  .000     .0  10.4   5.9    .0    .0  1.9    .54
2  .002    5  .409    7.0   8.0   2.2    .0   1.0   .0    .20
3  .018   12  .367    5.3  11.4   4.3    .7    .7   .6    .73
4  .007    6  .438   12.4   6.6   1.1    .0    .0   .0    .54
                              
Liv'ston  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .000   13  .341    3.9   4.6   3.9    .4    .9   .8   -.01
2  .009   13  .500    9.3   3.2   3.0   1.2    .0   .0    .33
3  .019   17  .808   13.2   2.5   3.1   1.0    .5   .5    .57
4  .013   17  .524    9.1   4.9   3.2   1.0   1.1   .5    .39
                              
Looney   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .031   18  .667   13.6   8.7   1.5    .6    .3   .6    .84
2  .029   18  .783   13.1   8.3   1.6    .9   1.8  1.2    .78
3  .062   28  .784   15.3   8.1   1.3   1.5    .3  1.1   1.11
4 -.002   15  .633    9.5   5.9   1.0    .5   1.8   .0   -.08
                              
McKinnie  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .012   10  .622   12.1   9.3    .0    .6    .6   .5    .58
2 -.004    8  .350    3.0   7.8    .7    .0    .6   .0   -.25
3  .014   18  .639   11.9   6.4    .5    .5    .5   .0    .39
4 -.014   11  .394    6.0   5.1   1.2    .0   2.2   .0   -.61
                              
Thompson  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .045   36  .571   15.6   3.0   1.5    .7   1.0  1.3    .60
2  .063   42  .550   15.7   4.8   1.8   1.9   2.1   .3    .74
3  .062   41  .467   16.5   3.3   3.0   1.6   2.7  1.0    .74
4  .080   28  .685   23.2   4.6   2.3    .3   1.1   .0   1.36

eW/G and mpg are totals divided by games in the series. DNP count as zeroes.
Sco, Reb, Ast, Stl, TO, Blk are per 36 min., adjusted to standards.
Final column is actually eWins/480 minutes -- or per more min. if there were overtime sessions.

Raptors:

Code: Select all

Gasol    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .085   26  .677   15.6   7.8   4.6   2.9    .6   .8   1.58
2  .043   35  .517    9.4   6.1   3.4    .8    .8  1.4    .59
3  .054   32  .481    8.6   8.3   4.1    .6   1.4  2.3    .85
4  .081   29  .605   17.0   9.4   3.3   1.0   1.7   .6   1.35
                              
Green    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .032   29  .526   11.2   4.4   3.0   1.6   1.3   .7    .54
2  .010   33  .581   10.7   4.8    .7   1.4   1.6   .3    .15
3 -.009   25  .300    2.8   4.9   1.2   2.2   1.0   .7   -.19
4  .030   28  .588   13.1   5.3   1.4   1.7   2.1  1.0    .51
                              
Ibaka    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .065   21  .580   18.0  11.8   2.3    .7   1.7  1.6   1.50
2  .019   22  .473   12.5   7.5    .9    .2   1.6  1.3    .42
3  .030   21  .467   10.3  10.4   1.4    .7   1.3   .5    .70
4  .057   19  .585   15.7   9.9   1.3   1.7   2.3  3.6   1.43
                              
Leonard  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .193   34  .668   38.8   7.1   3.6   1.3   3.1   .4   2.72
2  .276   40  .621   37.8   9.4   3.6   1.2   3.3   .3   3.33
3  .196   41  .561   27.9   8.4   3.7   1.9   2.9   .9   2.36
4  .228   40  .634   29.7  10.1   3.6   1.8   2.7   .9   2.72
                              
Lowry    mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .097   35  .533   13.2   5.0  10.3   2.1   3.2   .4   1.31
2  .073   39  .497   12.5   5.1   6.0   1.0   1.8   .3    .90
3  .129   37  .693   23.9   5.4   4.9    .7   1.9   .0   1.71
4  .059   36  .495   12.3   3.6   7.3   1.5   2.8   .2    .78
                              
Powell   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .043   19  .571   17.5   6.3   1.6   1.4    .4   .0   1.07
2  .010   10  .553   10.5   2.9   4.4    .5    .5   .0    .49
3  .036   23  .578   18.1   4.9   2.0    .5   1.9   .0    .78
4 -.005   11  .450    5.3   2.3   2.2   1.4    .8   .0   -.23
                              
Siakam   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .152   38  .595   25.8   8.1   3.4    .2   1.0   .7   1.94
2  .124   35  .523   21.5   7.1   2.4   2.1   1.7   .5   1.72
3  .051   37  .463   12.2   6.5   2.2   1.2   1.6  1.0    .68
4  .122   40  .555   18.0   7.5   4.1    .2   1.2   .7   1.47
                              
VanVleet  mpg  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1  .027   23  .486   11.2   2.4   7.6    .3   2.1   .3    .57
2 -.014   17  .237    2.3   3.4   2.3   1.9    .9   .5   -.39
3  .027   27  .644   13.4   1.2   3.7    .6   1.0   .6    .49
4  .039   34  .560   12.7   3.3   3.2   1.5   1.4   .0    .56

Toronto's amazing 8 man rotation is drifting to just 7 with Powell's recent ineffectiveness.