Fixing the Cavs

[Crow]

Besides suggesting new owner, GM, Coach, scouting department and possibly analytics staff:

Trade almost everybody.

Especially Love and one or preferably both of Sexton / Garland.

Cut Sexton and Garland to about 20 minutes per game each unless they are rolling / defending.

Try Nance - Zizic. They haven't. If it doesn't show promise, trade one or both.

Play Windler 20 plus minutes per game if he ever gets healthy.

Give Exum 25 plus minutes per game for at least a month.

Play for way more Moreyball shots.

[Crow]

Outside of 12 day stretch where they went 4-2 (despite being outscored by 17 cumulatively), Cavs are 6-25.

[Crow]

Sexton - Garland is -13.4 pts / 100 possessions in 820 minutes. The worst of the 20 most used pairs for Cavs. Both are bad to horrible with everyone in rotation. (Least bad with Henson, though who cares.)My guess they will remain awful if they retain them.

11 others of the most used 20 are -9 or worse and 19 of the 20 negative.

Best bigger minute trio is Osman - Nance - Thompson. Just -1. If you don't totally blow it up, this could be the core to build around.




What was the worst performing pair that got fixed well later? There is no pair that played over 1000 minutes together at -10 pts / 100p in last 10 years that ever got fixed to strong and achieved anything notable (beyond first round). They rarely last more than a year. But both Cavs and Bulls are on track to repeat multiple such horrible pairs. This year, probably next season and how long?

Further: There are no pairs over 800 minutes and -5 or worse in a season that got strong / became meaningful in last `10 years. Harris - Barton is the first pair I see that got fixed- with the arrival of Jokic- and it still took a couple of years. Big minute pairs that are bad almost never get strong / meaningful. The only other recent ones I saw were Hayward- Kanter in a new city with a different coach & cast and Middleton - Ilyasova with full effect Giannis, new core pieces and a new coach. Not sure if they really got "fixed" or just overwhelmed by new power.

[Crow]

2-12 recently with 6 blowout losses. Lots of deep problems. Requires massive changes in personnel and strategy. And years.

[Dr Positivity]

The best player they've drafted since 2011 is Joe Harris in the 2nd round, and in that time they've had 1 or 2 #1 picks (depending on whether Wiggins was their draft evaluation), a #4, a #5, a #8 and a #19. The Cavs like to tank and get as many draft picks as they can by trading capspace for it, but they will need to hit the picks as Lebron isn't coming to save them this time

[Crow]

Zizic is probably their toughest keep or move decision. Almost everyone else should be move if you can.

[Crow]

A move down to take Okongwu might make sense. Or Toppin. They could use anything but I'd guess they stay with their lousy young perimeters and target PF.

[Crow]

What is the design really and who fits it, including Coach?

[Crow]

Bickerstaff has been hit & miss with top lineups in past runs. Used very top lineup more his 3rd season than the first two but it was still modest minutes. Do the usual coaching random blunderblast of lineups and he won't last long.

In neither of his previous stops did he change the team. In Houston they continued to play fast without defense. In Memphis they continued to play slow without shooting accuracy.

So expect more slow without shooting or defense this time? I would without a fierce change approach. His elevation as a move is opposite of that.

[Crow]

Sexton Garland Osman Nance is less bad than most of their lineups. Has gotten about 200 minutes. Should easily get at least 300 more minutes of testing.

[Dr Positivity]

Code: Select all

Player		Vol.	Eff.	Def.	Spac.	VEDS	VEDS/minute
K. Love		6.85	2.88	3.43	7.77	20.93	0.67
L. Nance 	3.49	4.08	4.22	4.52	16.31	0.65
T. Thompson	5.23	2.2	5.27	1.68	14.37	0.47
C. Osman	4.47	0.2	2.45	6.03	13.15	0.45
J. Clarkson	5.53	3.98	-0.26	3.41	12.66	0.55
C. Sexton	8.15	0.37	0.45	2.31	11.27	0.35
J. Henson	2.11	0.89	4.1	2.08	9.18	0.65
Drummond	8.08	-6.3	4.71	1.32	7.81	0.31
K. Porter	4.32	-2.4	1.92	3.2	7.04	0.31
D. Exum		2.24	0.1	1.54	1.39	5.26	0.32
A. Zizic	1.52	2.12	0.76	0.51	4.91	0.5
D. Garland	5.99	-5.12	-0.21	4.16	4.81	0.16
A. McKinnie	2.02	-1.42	1.16	2.6	4.35	0.3
M. Dellavedova	1.59	-1	0.02	2.06	2.67	0.22
D. Wade		0.54	0.35	0.98	0.71	2.57	0.48
M. Mooney	0.4	0.47	1	0.41	2.28	0.91
T. Cook		0.49	1.6	0	0.1	2.18	0.68
M. Bolden	0	0	1.75	0	1.75	0.58
B. Knight	2.7	-3.52	-0.23	2.7	1.65	0.11
J.P. Macura	0	0	0.11	0	0.11	0.11
M. Newman	1.55	-5.63	-1.18	0	-5.26	-1.31

Love rates as still pretty good, but his DBPM is friendlier than DRPM or on/off defensively this year

Nance’s is taking 2.9 3s a game at 35% so if he can improve that along with his other athletic strengths seems like a decent asset for his salary and a player other teams should target

Their guard play is a mess clearly. Garland has atrocious numbers but his possession efficiency is so clearly bad that if he can get that back to normal next season he might at least be playable as a 3pt shooter. Sexton does not have a lot going for him other than taking a lot of shots. Either way looks like an unfortunate couple drafts for them so far.

[Crow]

What is lg avg VEDS / min?