Usage up to 36% now.
3 PT shooting slightly better than last season but welll below league. 233rd best.
69th best 1 yr LÀRAPM at a moderate 0.69. Gives up half of his offensive impact on defense.
Doncic - Porzingis now working on average, though not nearly as well as some Doncic pairs.
Brunson Doncic Hardaway Wright not used ever but 315 other quads got run. Quads with 3 of the 4 were fantastic if they included Hardaway but meh at best otherwise. Did not need Doncic to be great. All variations of these 4 guys need more time testing.
Doncic
Re: Doncic
Doncic also is unassisted on 3/4 of his 3's, while teammates are >90% assisted. He resembles some other MVP types in this regard.
Here's the whole history of player-seasons with Usg% > 35 and TS% > .550minimum 600 minutes. Career year for most of these guys.
Doncic ranks behind only Harden this year in TS%, behind only Giannis in ORtg/DRtg
Here's the whole history of player-seasons with Usg% > 35 and TS% > .550
Code: Select all
player yr Usg% TS% ORtg DRtg O/D
Gervin 1982 35.0 .562 114 110 1.04
B King 1985 35.1 .585 113 111 1.02
Jordan 1987 38.3 .562 117 104 1.13
McGrady 2003 35.2 .564 116 104 1.12
Kobe 2006 38.7 .559 114 105 1.09
Wade 2009 36.2 .574 115 105 1.10
Carmelo 2013 35.6 .560 112 108 1.04
Embiid 2017 36.0 .584 103 102 1.01
Cousins 2017 36.5 .562 107 105 1.02
Westbrook '17 41.7 .554 112 104 1.08
player yr Usg% TS% ORtg DRtg O/D
Harden 2018 36.1 .619 120 105 1.14
Harden 2019 40.5 .616 118 108 1.09
Harden 2020 39.2 .640 122 109 1.12
Doncic 2020 36.0 .624 122 105 1.16
Giannis 2020 37.5 .613 117 96 1.22
Doncic ranks behind only Harden this year in TS%, behind only Giannis in ORtg/DRtg
Re: Doncic
Titlewinners in those years on this list? Zero, right? So do something different or do it anyway?
Re: Doncic
Yes, titles are won with more balanced offense. The Bulls got Pippen et al, Lakes snapped up Gasol, the Heat add LeBron and Bosh; and Giannis may scale back with Middleton around.
Of course a random sample of 15 will only have an expected (15/30) 0.5 title-winners present. These teams were made competitive by one superstar.
Of course a random sample of 15 will only have an expected (15/30) 0.5 title-winners present. These teams were made competitive by one superstar.
Re: Doncic
Mavs back to having twice the net rating with Doncic off compared to on. With him on vs off team offensive rating improved by 2.8 pts but defensive rating weakens by 3 times that amount.
A lot of this is how the lineups are managed. Stacked to score or threaten to score with Luka. Stacked with better defenders when he is off.
A lot of this is how the lineups are managed. Stacked to score or threaten to score with Luka. Stacked with better defenders when he is off.
Re: Doncic
Doncic slips to 80th on LARAPM estimate.
December boxscore numbers so far are down in many ways compared to November. One thing that is up in December is usage, at over 40%.
December boxscore numbers so far are down in many ways compared to November. One thing that is up in December is usage, at over 40%.
Re: Doncic
Doncic's usage higher than ever for month. Fg%s good. FT% has fallen every month to modestly above average. Steals at monthly low, turnovers and fouls at monthly high.
Re: Doncic
His season to date efg% is slightly below team average. TS% is moderately above team average for season but his January TS% is below team average for season. FT% in January below league average. His offensive rating for season is 7th best on team. On huge usage. Among other marks, mostly good or great.
Re: Doncic
There are 4 Mavs who go more than 2 mpg and have higher O-Rtg
Code: Select all
Mavs ORtg On Off
Powell 131 118 115
Kleber 125 114 119
Wright 125 113 118
F-Smith 122 118 114
Doncic 119 120 111
PKWF-S 126 116 117
Mavs eFG% On Off
Powell .643 .564 .525
Kleber .588 .511 .579
Wright .523 .526 .558
F-Smith .587 .558 .525
Doncic .585 .562 .519
PKWF-S .585 .540 .547
Mavs %3s 2%as 3%as
Powell .182 .803 1.00
Kleber .624 .889 1.00
Wright .294 .295 .833
F-Smith .566 .606 .984
Doncic .450 .181 .252
PKWF-S .417 .648 .954The others are unassisted on just 35% of their 2pointers and 5% of threes; vs Doncic 82% and 75%.
Team ORtg and eFG% (On and Off) resemble Doncic for starters Powell and Finney-Smith.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... 20/on-off/
Re: Doncic
7th offensive rating of all 16, 5th of top 10, 4th of top 6 including all of the starters. The basic point is not as high as some might assume.
Extremely high usage can be considered "burden" or tremendous opportunity. Low assisted is mostly a player choice.
My interpretation of the data is that he could probably ease back on the usage including the unassisted usage some without there being a net loss. He persists with his way though.
May or may not be a big deal with other players or with the soundness of this approach in the playoffs. We'll see how happy and successful they are in late spring and future years.
He and they are ahead of my expectations but it is only January.
Mavs winning only 33% of games against teams with good defensive efg%. 41% against good rebounding teams. 2-3 against 5 most likely first round matchups. 3 of the 5 are at least good on def. Efg% and 2 at right at average. Only 1 of the 5 is good at def. reb. rate but 3 very strong of offensive rebounding.
Doncic's average gamescore against these 5 is 29% less than his avg. GS against all other teams. His 6 best GS were against 3 bad teams and 3 meh teams. Against the playoff liklies, his best game was against the Rockets. Weak against Nuggets and Clips.
Extremely high usage can be considered "burden" or tremendous opportunity. Low assisted is mostly a player choice.
My interpretation of the data is that he could probably ease back on the usage including the unassisted usage some without there being a net loss. He persists with his way though.
May or may not be a big deal with other players or with the soundness of this approach in the playoffs. We'll see how happy and successful they are in late spring and future years.
He and they are ahead of my expectations but it is only January.
Mavs winning only 33% of games against teams with good defensive efg%. 41% against good rebounding teams. 2-3 against 5 most likely first round matchups. 3 of the 5 are at least good on def. Efg% and 2 at right at average. Only 1 of the 5 is good at def. reb. rate but 3 very strong of offensive rebounding.
Doncic's average gamescore against these 5 is 29% less than his avg. GS against all other teams. His 6 best GS were against 3 bad teams and 3 meh teams. Against the playoff liklies, his best game was against the Rockets. Weak against Nuggets and Clips.
Re: Doncic
41st on LA-RAPM estimate. From offensive factors and reduced opponent FT rate. Take out low minute guys and he is about 17th among All-Star candidates.
Re: Doncic
Luka Doncic runs the Mavs' offense, and it's the best offense in the league by a wide margin.That is a 2.4 pts/100 lead over #2. There are then 5 teams within the next 2.4 range.
Holy Cow -- It's the best ORtg ever!Relative to league ORtg (last column) they rank up there with the peak Jordan Bulls, Bird Celts, Magic Lakers, and Nash Suns.
Won't say it's the Doncic Effect, but almost all are well above their pre-2020 efficiencies:On avg, these nine are up .019 in TS% and +6.6 in ORtg, over their previous norms.
Shooting alone won't boost ORtg that much. Seems TO% are also down for most.
Porzingis' TS% was up .038 from Nov. to Dec.
Code: Select all
ORtg Tm
116.8 Dal
114.4 Hou
113.6 Mil
113.2 LAL
112.1 LAC
112.0 BosHoly Cow -- It's the best ORtg ever!
Code: Select all
ORtg tm yr NBA OR/N
116.8 Dal 2020 109.3 1.069
115.9 GSW 2019 110.4 1.050
115.6 LAL 1987 108.3 1.067
115.6 GSW 2017 108.5 1.065
115.5 Chi 1992 108.2 1.067
115.5 Hou 2019 110.4 1.046
115.4 Bos 1988 108.0 1.069
115.3 Phx 2010 107.6 1.072
115.2 Chi 1996 107.6 1.071
115.1 Orl 1995 108.3 1.063
Won't say it's the Doncic Effect, but almost all are well above their pre-2020 efficiencies:
Code: Select all
career: TS% 2020 ORt 2020
Porzingis .535 .510 105 103
Hardaway .540 .566 107 114
Curry .598 .597 113 117
F-Smith .510 .599 104 122
Kleber .578 .620 116 125
Brunson .549 .536 110 114
Wright .544 .580 113 125
Powell .626 .661 125 131
Jackson .543 .523 111 112
Shooting alone won't boost ORtg that much. Seems TO% are also down for most.
Porzingis' TS% was up .038 from Nov. to Dec.
Re: Doncic
There are several perspectives. I have made a point of making sure the less rosy got mentioned. Imo it is worth knowing for a full accounting.The positive is well covered.
His LA-RAPM estimate is +1.6 points overall impact per 100 possessions. Their success appears to be a group effort.
Plenty of story ahead.
His LA-RAPM estimate is +1.6 points overall impact per 100 possessions. Their success appears to be a group effort.
Plenty of story ahead.
Re: Doncic
http://bkref.com/tiny/gxuCS
Only Westbrook and Harden have had a season with Usg% >35 and Ast%>45. Luka is currently at 37 and 48+
Just 9 players have a full season at 30+ Usg and 40+ Ast%. Wade in 2007 was the first.
Only Westbrook and Harden have had a season with Usg% >35 and Ast%>45. Luka is currently at 37 and 48+
Just 9 players have a full season at 30+ Usg and 40+ Ast%. Wade in 2007 was the first.
Re: Doncic
Zero titles won in those player seasons yet (with this year's playoffs TBD). 2 Finals appearances, 1 total finals game won. Doesn't appear to the recipe for success but lots of factors involved. Maybe it works sometime soon. Maybe it doesn't.
The players on the list who won titles took a different style in these successes.
The players on the list who won titles took a different style in these successes.