Doncic

[Dr Positivity]

His offensive impact is pretty legit by on/off, ORPM, etc., maybe not god level like the boxscore, but perhaps on his way. However it suggests he plays no defense. Harden is all around good comparison in both offense/defense and style of play. But at his age he could easily turn that around the D in a few years.

[Crow]

Doncic ranks 411th in league on LA-DRAPM. 412th on defensive efg% allowed factor. 458th on Def. turnover rate impact. 390th on opponent offensive rebounding rate. 41st best on impact on opponent FT rate is the difference between him being bottom 20% on LA-DRAPM and perhaps being bottom 5%.

[Mike G]

Zero titles won in those player seasons yet (with this year's playoffs TBD). 2 Finals appearances, 1 total finals game won. Doesn't appear to the recipe for success but lots of factors involved. Maybe it works sometime soon. Maybe it doesn't.

The players on the list who won titles took a different style in these successes.

Good observation. It's a modern thing, the ball-dominant guard (or sometimes F or very big G). Even dialing it back to ORtg and Ast% both at 30, nobody had ever done it before Jordan in 1989.
Bird topped out at 30.2 Usg and 28.9 Ast% (not in the same year.) Magic at 26 Usg%

http://bkref.com/tiny/5QfF6
Jordan in 2002 re-starts the list; basically more every year, and this year 2 on the Rockets.
I find LeBron with the highest Finals-winner Ast% at 36.4 in Miami.
Again at 36.0 in 2016 w Cle -- and in those Finals he was at 33 and 44. With LeBron, all things are possible.

[Crow]

Even on the dialed way back criteria just above only in 4 out of 69 tries did the player win the title that way.

In 2010-11, Dirk had 28% usage in regular season and 32% in playoffs. Doncic at over 37% now and might try 40% in playoffs... unless it doesn't work and he is told to dial it back.. and does. Dirk that year with slightly better efg% and ts% than Doncic at the moment. 2019-20 Mavs about .020 above league averages on efg% and ts%. 2010-11 Mavs were about .025. The average have gone up for Mavs and league but 2010-11 Mavs were more superior on relative shooting / scoring efficiency without the super high usage guy. 2010-11 Mavs had 3 other guys over 20 min /g and near 25% usage. 2019-20? Just one other and he is currently injured.




A article I saw mentioned in passing today apparently found that more play usage entropy by players in general worked better in playoffs.

Regular season isn't playoffs. There is more that has been said before or could be said, new or again. But I may put this down for awhile.

[Mike G]

Came across an article at 538 that covers some of this.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... on-so-far/

Since last discussion, Mavs' O-Rtg has shot up to 117.5
http://bkref.com/tiny/Umfyx
That's now 1.6 higher than the previous record of 115.9 by the Dubs last year. The next 1.6 (to 114.3) covers the next 15 best team-seasons.

Updating a previous table comparing the Mavs' 2-9 players' previous rates and this year's, I added Usg% and TO%, and here are the changes this season:

Code: Select all

deltas :    TS%   ORt   TO%   Usg%
Porzingis -.025   -1    0.7    0.1
Hardaway   .034    9   -2.2   -0.5
Brunson   -.012    4    0.8    0.8
Curry      .003    5   -1.1    0.4
Jackson   -.028    0   -3.7    2.0
Wright     .026   12   -1.2   -2.8
Kleber     .048   10    0.0    0.1
F-Smith    .085   18   -0.8   -0.5
Powell     .053   10    1.7   -4.2

. avg     +.020  +7.4  -0.6   -0.5

These are ranked by Usg% this season. Note the great improvements are with the lower-usage guys.
As a starter this year, Dwight Powell's usage is way down, and his efficiency is even higher.
Team ORtg is up 8.1 from last year. TO% is down 1.3, eFG% up .027

[Crow]

After today's data is incorporated into the season averages, Doncics efg% will be even a bit lower compared team and league averages, ft% will fall to be a bit closer to the averages as well though slightly higher and his ts% advantage will be a bit smaller though still modestly helpful. An an earlier point his ts% advantage over team average was 3-4 percentage points. Now it is a bit more than 1.

[Crow]

For January efg%, ts% and ft% are all now below league average, especially ft%. Offensive rating continues to fall month to month. Defensive rating is a lot worse than before. Raw on/off in January is 8 points worse than November / December though still mildly positive. On /off is barely positive.

Last March before he shut down was his worst NBA shooting and it was quite bad. He faded significantly the previous season in Europe as well. What will he do in late April?

[Crow]

Duplicate removed.

[Crow]

10 games missed last season. 10 so far this season and counting.

[Mike G]

Including a game (Dec.14) he played just 1:40, Mavs are 5-6 when he doesn't play, 27-15 when he does. Extrapolated to a season, it's the difference between 37 wins and 53.

[Crow]

Fwiw, his DARKO projection is only mildly positive and has slipped recently. A harder evaluation than me?? I guess partly it is tough on youngsters?

Will be interested in how he returns / finishes season.

[DSMok1]

In BPM 2.0, there are 4 Dominant offensive forces (around +8 on offense, which is unusual historically) in the league this year. Harden, Giannis, Lillard, and Luka Doncic.

He's also considered an above average defensive player. BPM 2.0 puts Doncic as the third best player in the league, per possession, behind Giannis and Harden.

[Crow]

Hasn't play in playoffs yet. But against current western playoff seeds in regular season he has shot below lg avg overall, from 3 and ft line. Well below his overall numbers.

http://hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantas ... s/20/6/105

Includes 26% from 3 against best 8 in west.

[Crow]

Triple dub... but 26 pts on 34 possessions used. All shooting efficiencies will fall a bit.

7 turnovers. 21st game with 5 or more. A bit short of half his games.

[Crow]

Not playing today. More than 15% of possible career games missed due to injuries, rest and tanking (last season).