Doncic

[Mike G]

Hasn't play in playoffs yet. But against current western playoff seeds in regular season he has shot below lg avg overall, from 3 and ft line. Well below his overall numbers.

http://hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantas ... s/20/6/105

Includes 26% from 3 against best 8 in west.

Somewhat a tangent, but I notice that every above-avg team in the league is also above-avg in 3-point defense.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... s-per_game
Mil is middling, but the top 10 are Tor, Bos, Mia, Den, Dal, Hou, LAL, LAC, OKC, Ind
Of worse-than-avg teams defending the 3, every one is also worse than avg in general.

Team 3pt% doesn't correlate this closely with Win% or MOV. Team 2pt% is close (Mem is #8)

[Crow]

Best team 3pt fg% defense is less than 2 percentage points better than average. Doncic's 3pt fg% falloff against western playoff teams vs. avg. was 6 points worse. A bit worse now. Shoots his worst against them overall and far worst from FT line too. Randomly or otherwise.

Rest of Mavs only slightly worse than league average from 3pt land against the West's best. Both Doncic and team shoot better from 3 against lottery teams than playoff teams but Doncic still below lg avg from 3 even against lottery teams at under 32%. 284th in league on 3pt fg% overall. Right between Cam Reddish and RJ Barrett.

[Crow]

All his shooting / scoring efficiencies will fall some after tonight. Especially 3 pt fg%. 1 for 8.

[Italian Stallion]

I watch a ton of Dallas basketball.

I'm kind of too lazy to read through this entire thread to see what the consensus is, but here's mind based on observation and a more casual look at the data.

1. He's overrated and overhyped
2. He doesn't play defense well
3. He's a stat stuffer
4. He tries to do way too much and often hurts the cause doing so with terrible shots and stupid TOs

All that said, he's extremely talented and productive on offense now and imo could become an all time great offensive player if he would tone it down a little

[DSMok1]

I watch a ton of Dallas basketball.

I'm kind of too lazy to read through this entire thread to see what the consensus is, but here's mind based on observation and a more casual look at the data.

1. He's overrated and overhyped
2. He doesn't play defense well
3. He's a stat stuffer
4. He tries to do way too much and often hurts the cause doing so with terrible shots and stupid TOs

All that said, he's extremely talented and productive on offense now and imo could become an all time great offensive player if he would tone it down a little

How do you reckon that with their extraordinary offense, one of the best of all time vs. league average ratings? BPM 2.0 thinks his offense this year is up in the top 50 of all time.

[Italian Stallion]

I watch a ton of Dallas basketball.

I'm kind of too lazy to read through this entire thread to see what the consensus is, but here's mind based on observation and a more casual look at the data.

1. He's overrated and overhyped
2. He doesn't play defense well
3. He's a stat stuffer
4. He tries to do way too much and often hurts the cause doing so with terrible shots and stupid TOs

All that said, he's extremely talented and productive on offense now and imo could become an all time great offensive player if he would tone it down a little

How do you reckon that with their extraordinary offense, one of the best of all time vs. league average ratings? BPM 2.0 thinks his offense this year is up in the top 50 of all time.

I said that he's extremely talented and productive on offense now.

However, I think the consensus focuses on his offense without giving due consideration to his bad defense.

I also think he could be MORE productive if he toned down his shot selection and forced passes. He clearly takes some terrible shots and makes some bad passing decisions while piling up those gaudy stats. He happens to be a pretty good "bad shot maker". That makes for great excitement, highlights, and hype, but IMO the team would be even more efficient if he did a little less of that.

[Mike G]

He/they could be even better than the best offense of all time. OK

Code: Select all

O-Rtg    tm    yr    eFG%    TO%
116.9   Dal   2020   .548   11.4
115.9   GSW   2019   .565   12.6
115.6   LAL   1987   .528   14.0
115.6   GSW   2017   .563   13.2
115.5   Chi   1992   .518   11.8
115.5   Hou   2019   .542   12.0
115.4   Bos   1988   .541   14.1
115.3   Phx   2010   .546   13.6
115.2   Chi   1996   .517   13.1
115.1   Orl   1995   .539   14.0

A few teams have shot better, but that TO% is the best in this list.
http://bkref.com/tiny/gnxJD
Sometimes your efficiency depends on whether you are relaxed and having fun. Barkley used to hit 20% from the arc and still lead the league in eFG%.
Almost everyone on the Mavs is enjoying career best shooting%. If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

[Crow]

Rest of team is doing great and surely Doncic helps.

His offensive rating is slightly below team offensive rating. Not necessarily exactly same calibration but still seems worth noting this comparison.

Little more or less Doncic is a reasonable topic, especially for playoffs. Usage is down slightly in early March... along with every shooting / scoring efficiency (small sample but big drops to monthly lows for season). Intentional or random or short-term usage drop? Let's see in coming games.

11 pts on 16 true shooting attempts so far tonight. Worst shooting on team and 2nd worst raw plus minus. Teammates handling things this time.

[Mike G]

Porzingis was the one guy not having his best offensive season, but lately he is:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2020

Minutes are up, Usg% is up, TS% up, scoring has skyrocketed. Career high 3pAr and % of shots which are dunks!

Meanwhile several key Mavs are injured. Powell is gone, maybe Brunson; Hardaway, DF-S, and now Curry are day2day.
Oddly with shooting less, Luka's assists have not increased.

[Italian Stallion]

I think we have to somehow separate the impact of Doncic on Dallas's offense from the impact of what they've built there. They have a lot of versatile shooters, a ton of space with all that 3 point shooting, and Carlise seems to be use everyone effectively.

1. Prozingis was coming off a very long layoff due to injury. I don't think it's too much of a surprise that it took him a few months to get his confidence about his knee back and back up to game speed. I've been monitoring his shooting percentages all season. He was shooting a lot worse from virtually everywhere on the court (including the FT line) early in the season. Now his efficiency is rising. I think it's due to better shot selection (more 3s and at the rim, fewer midrange). not getting double teamed like in NY, and playing with better PGs in Dallas than in NY. That's been true all season, but what's happening now is that his current shot making ability has slowly returned to it's former level. Same shooting skill + better shots and shot distribution = higher efficiency.

2. Doncic amazes me every night on offense with some of his moves and shots, but for all those points and all that high efficiency, his overall on/off via Basketball Reference is not nearly impressive. Right now it's lower than for Brunson who is the backup PG. There's still something that rings "hollow" about his game to me. That's not meant to insult his game, just to say it doesn't match the hype.

[Crow]

Doncic has strong plus minus on the court for 3 months this season and modest to around neutral for 3 (including the 2 shortest). March is actually slightly negative so far.

I can't find on / off by month at the moment. Missing at BRef and I don't know where it is on other sites.

[Mike G]

From the Doncic game log, his raw +/- can be summed for any range of dates. Then the Mavs' game log can be used to extract his raw on-off.

Code: Select all

mo.    G    mpg    PM      G   mpg   MOV
OcNov 18   34.2   5.6      18   48   7.7
Dec   11   29.3   6.6      15   48   7.4
Jan   14   33.8   2.0      15   48   2.1
FebMa  8   34.5   7.9      16   48   7.6

It's still not positive for the year, but it's improved over each interval.

Code: Select all

mo .    on   off  on-off
OcNov  5.6  12.9   -7.3
Dec    6.6   8.0   -1.4
Jan    2.0   2.3   -0.3
FebMa  7.9   7.4   +0.5

[Crow]

Thanks. I didn't resort to that.

BRef has him at plus 2.2 and 2.1 on / off overall for season at various places. But I don't really trust their data completely, given previous errors and disagreements with other sources. And it is doesn't match up with your info from the game logs.

[Crow]

Doncic's raw plus minus (using dougstats.com) is down more than 2/3rds from prior part of season.

3pt fg% at 27%, ft% at 68% in that period.

[Crow]

Doncic's 3pt shooting- this season month to month, by degree of contest, location and by opponent quality, as well as this season vs. last- could use some review. I don't see getting to it anytime soon but maybe someone else is inclined.