Indiana vs Portland 14/01/2021

[vzografos]

So....how does something like this happen?




From a relatively equal game for the whole of Q1...and then in Q2 they just go on a 27 point lead!!
I mean I predicted that game correctly but I could never have predicted that run.
Does anyone know what happened there? I wasnt watching and did not do any post-game analysis but was there a different lineup? Something must have happened.

I would really like to know how it would be possible to predict such runs. Any ideas on how one can start to think about modelling this effect?

[DSMok1]

A good place to start is always the PopcornMachine GameFlows. Old, but still the best visualization of what happened during these runs:

http://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20210114&game=INDPOR

The first half of the run (12-0) was against the Enes Kanter / Carmelo Portland bench lineup. Sabonis was still on the floor for Indiana. It looks like they were feeding spot-ups to Doug McDermott.

The second run (also 12-0) was starters on starters, and Brogdon and Turner combined for 3 steals within a few possessions.

[Mike G]

When Sabonis Sr. played for Portland, they had a bad night in Indiana.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 70IND.html

[Crow]

Everyone on Pacers shot well in 2nd quarter but Brogdon.

Good shot making, maybe not so good defense.

[vzografos]

But can you detect something that happened before the 27 point run that could be used to predict it beforehand?