https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... yMiV3KAnwA
Lowest combined Finals rate in at least 60 years (and good chance ever).
FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
Not surprising as the ratio of FTA/FGA in the regular season this past season (2021-22) and the previous season (2020-21) was the lowest in some 40+ seasons:
year--FGA/100poss--FTA/100poss
7778-------85.6-------26.2
8788-------86.4-------28.7
9798-------86.4-------28.5
0708-------86.8-------26.6
1415--------87.6-------24.0
2021--------88.2-------21.8
2122--------88.6-------22.0
year--FGA/100poss--FTA/100poss
7778-------85.6-------26.2
8788-------86.4-------28.7
9798-------86.4-------28.5
0708-------86.8-------26.6
1415--------87.6-------24.0
2021--------88.2-------21.8
2122--------88.6-------22.0
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
In the 43 NBA seasons of the 3-pt era (1980-2022), expected FTA can be projected by the formula:
FTA = 2fga*0.333 + 3fga*0.111 + OReb*.067
alternatively:
FTA = 2fga/3 + 3fga/9 + ORb/15
So one FTA for every three 2-pt attempts, for every nine 3pt attempts, and for every 15 off. reb.
These are eerily 'round' divisors; yet they are rough averages, and there are significant departures for some seasons. From 2005 to 2007, league avg was 2-3 FTA/G higher than the formula would expect. From 1995 thru 1999 also 1.7 to 2.5 more than projected. Perhaps some new foul rules or tightening of rules?
These last 2 seasons were just 0.6 and 0.3 FTA/G short of what the formula calls for.
FTA = 2fga*0.333 + 3fga*0.111 + OReb*.067
alternatively:
FTA = 2fga/3 + 3fga/9 + ORb/15
So one FTA for every three 2-pt attempts, for every nine 3pt attempts, and for every 15 off. reb.
These are eerily 'round' divisors; yet they are rough averages, and there are significant departures for some seasons. From 2005 to 2007, league avg was 2-3 FTA/G higher than the formula would expect. From 1995 thru 1999 also 1.7 to 2.5 more than projected. Perhaps some new foul rules or tightening of rules?
These last 2 seasons were just 0.6 and 0.3 FTA/G short of what the formula calls for.
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
Teams significantly above or below projected FTA by the formula given above, 2021-22 season:
* = playoff team. There doesn't seem to be much correlation between 'extra' FTA (err) and success.
Code: Select all
Team FTA proj err
Rockets 24.5 20.8 3.7
Jazz* 23.4 20.5 2.9
Knicks 24.1 21.3 2.8
76ers* 23.8 21.7 2.1
Grizzlies* 23.1 25.1 -2.0
Magic 19.7 21.8 -2.1
Thunder 19.9 22.1 -2.2
Raptors* 21.3 23.7 -2.4
Clippers 19.6 22.1 -2.5
Suns* 19.9 23.6 -3.7
Spurs 20.4 24.5 -4.1
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
The Finals average was 15.8% compared to regular season average of 19.2%.
I am having posting issues so won't say more at this time.
I am having posting issues so won't say more at this time.
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
Celtics FTA/FGA and 3fga/FGA were consistent from regular season to Finals.
The Warriors, however, increased their 3PAr from .456 in the season to .480 in the Finals. This was mostly due to Klay Thompson getting more minutes. In the season, he took 8% of Dubs FGA, and in the Finals it was 19%.
Klay doesn't get to the FT line much: just about 40% of the avg player who takes as many shots.
Jordan Poole is very prolific at getting to the line; but in Finals, his minutes and shots were reduced about 30% from the RS.
For whatever reason, Stephen Curry shot about 9 fewer FTA in the Finals than he normally would, based on his FGA.
Perhaps the elite refs used are less inclined to give 'star treatment' on the big stage?
The Warriors, however, increased their 3PAr from .456 in the season to .480 in the Finals. This was mostly due to Klay Thompson getting more minutes. In the season, he took 8% of Dubs FGA, and in the Finals it was 19%.
Klay doesn't get to the FT line much: just about 40% of the avg player who takes as many shots.
Jordan Poole is very prolific at getting to the line; but in Finals, his minutes and shots were reduced about 30% from the RS.
For whatever reason, Stephen Curry shot about 9 fewer FTA in the Finals than he normally would, based on his FGA.
Perhaps the elite refs used are less inclined to give 'star treatment' on the big stage?
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
I do believe league direction influences foul rates, especially at certain historic points. When they feel a "need" to tinker with offensive / defensive balance.
It is important to remember that fta rate and ftm / fga are different metrics. Both have been discussed here. I had to correct myself in conparing what I was saying to what you were saying.
Your formula is interesting and the variance is worth thinking about. I hadn't seen it phrased that way. Thanks for looking into it. The negative by the Clippers, Suns and Raptors may be an important issue unless offset in other ways.
I have been aware of the regular season trend for several years. I might be reacting too much to the one finals, but the point of the reaction is to become alert and see what previously happened but also what happens next.
The Warriors probably did do it to themselves to a large degree. Watching tape could affect the split between team style and refereeing. I am not going to spend the time to do that. I'd think the team should, but that's up to them. They won the laat Finals but do they want to do it exactly the same way next time? I dunno. Probably need to look closer at the other Finals won and the losses.
It is important to remember that fta rate and ftm / fga are different metrics. Both have been discussed here. I had to correct myself in conparing what I was saying to what you were saying.
Your formula is interesting and the variance is worth thinking about. I hadn't seen it phrased that way. Thanks for looking into it. The negative by the Clippers, Suns and Raptors may be an important issue unless offset in other ways.
I have been aware of the regular season trend for several years. I might be reacting too much to the one finals, but the point of the reaction is to become alert and see what previously happened but also what happens next.
The Warriors probably did do it to themselves to a large degree. Watching tape could affect the split between team style and refereeing. I am not going to spend the time to do that. I'd think the team should, but that's up to them. They won the laat Finals but do they want to do it exactly the same way next time? I dunno. Probably need to look closer at the other Finals won and the losses.
Re: FT/ FGA level in 2022 Finals
3 of 4 titles were won in Finals while losing on net ft/fga. The one time they won that factor was a clear series win.
Both times they lost finals, they lost ft/fga.
They probably aren't sweating it but I wouldn't be totally complacent about it.
Both times they lost finals, they lost ft/fga.
They probably aren't sweating it but I wouldn't be totally complacent about it.