How many teams will have a minutes weighted average age of 25 years old or less?
Last season there were 9, the most in last 5 years.
6 instances where they made playoffs. Only Griz did that twice in that period.
7 instances in prior 5 years.
So teams with average ages of 25 or less made up about 8% of playoff teams over last 10 years.
So a team 25 or under this season seems unlikely to make playoffs, though 1 or more may.
Will there be 10 plus such young teams? It probably will be close to that.
'22-23 Commentary
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
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Re: '22-23 Commentary
Teams typically have the most regular season success when their high-minute players are between 26 and 30 years old during those players’ statistical peaks.
So, it is not unexpected that most teams that make the playoffs have a higher minutes-weighted age than 25 years old.
So, it is not unexpected that most teams that make the playoffs have a higher minutes-weighted age than 25 years old.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The norm of older teams in playoffs is known. My above comments puts specificity on rarity of the exception.
A number of teams who likely will be under 25 on average age are making some talk about reaching the playoffs. Hopefulness, optimism is to be expected. The history check is here for those interested. People may or may not have an accurate understanding of the rarity. I am not aware of any such prior check in print. Are you?
Griz probably below the age threshold again, though it may be fairly close. To do it twice already is very rare or unique, 3 times certainly would be unique for recent times. Interesting?
Will they be joined by 1-2 others? 2 others would be rare. 3 would be unique in recent times. Worth mentioning as something to watch? I thought so.
I've previously written here about the rarity of championship teams with an average age under 27. 2 in last 42 years and probably longer (1991 Bulls team and 2015 Warriors).
Many teams under 27 think they can do it that way, but very rarely do. Celtics haven't, Griz haven't. Thunder didn't. Will that change this year? Based on history, I lean not but it is possible. Another thing to watch later.
If you really want to make playoffs or win championship, I'd think it wise to go with the norms than to try to be an 8% or 5% exception respectively.
Timberwolves and Raptors made playoffs as exception under 25 last season. Probably won't be under 25 this season. Cavs close to 25 last season. Do they go over? Knicks, Hornets, Pelicans and Kings over last season. Not sure this season but probably. Specific aware of these trends or just generally? I'd guess just generally.
Do the Celtics reach 27? Possible. Griz, nope. Fwiw.
There are exceptions to patterns; but in these cases, they are small.
Mavs and Sixers were under 27 last season, could go either way this season. Clippers above. 7 other contenders were last season and will be again.
A number of teams who likely will be under 25 on average age are making some talk about reaching the playoffs. Hopefulness, optimism is to be expected. The history check is here for those interested. People may or may not have an accurate understanding of the rarity. I am not aware of any such prior check in print. Are you?
Griz probably below the age threshold again, though it may be fairly close. To do it twice already is very rare or unique, 3 times certainly would be unique for recent times. Interesting?
Will they be joined by 1-2 others? 2 others would be rare. 3 would be unique in recent times. Worth mentioning as something to watch? I thought so.
I've previously written here about the rarity of championship teams with an average age under 27. 2 in last 42 years and probably longer (1991 Bulls team and 2015 Warriors).
Many teams under 27 think they can do it that way, but very rarely do. Celtics haven't, Griz haven't. Thunder didn't. Will that change this year? Based on history, I lean not but it is possible. Another thing to watch later.
If you really want to make playoffs or win championship, I'd think it wise to go with the norms than to try to be an 8% or 5% exception respectively.
Timberwolves and Raptors made playoffs as exception under 25 last season. Probably won't be under 25 this season. Cavs close to 25 last season. Do they go over? Knicks, Hornets, Pelicans and Kings over last season. Not sure this season but probably. Specific aware of these trends or just generally? I'd guess just generally.
Do the Celtics reach 27? Possible. Griz, nope. Fwiw.
There are exceptions to patterns; but in these cases, they are small.
Mavs and Sixers were under 27 last season, could go either way this season. Clippers above. 7 other contenders were last season and will be again.
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:24 am
Re: '22-23 Commentary
I would have assumed that the Pelicans, Hornets, Knicks and Kings were younger teams. I really didn’t think of them as “prime-age” teams, i.e., a minute-weighted age between 26 and 30 years old, or close to it.
This season should have interesting implications for their future direction (or at the very least, which of their old vs. young players get playing time).
This season should have interesting implications for their future direction (or at the very least, which of their old vs. young players get playing time).
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Lakers were oldest team period last season and oldest team not in playoffs, followed by Clippers.
Knicks were 3rd oldest / not in playoffs, followed closely by Wizards, Pacers, Kings.
If a team's average age is 26ish and they are not in playoffs, something(s) is / are probably wrong.
Knicks were 3rd oldest / not in playoffs, followed closely by Wizards, Pacers, Kings.
If a team's average age is 26ish and they are not in playoffs, something(s) is / are probably wrong.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
So for last season, it was:
1/3rd of teams with average age under 25 made playoffs (more than normal).
17% of teams aged 25.0 to 26.0 yrs old made it (less than normal probably)
100% of teams aged over 26 to 27.0 yrs old made it (more than normal probably).
77% of teams aged over 27.0 yrs old made it.
A couple of the teams with average age between 25 and 26 took 1 or more steps to get younger but need to see the new minute divisions, at start of season and toward end. More steps in that direction probably appropriate for those not in contention for playoffs. How many of the 6 in this age band who didn't make playoffs last season but will this season? I dunno. They all think they could.
1/3rd of teams with average age under 25 made playoffs (more than normal).
17% of teams aged 25.0 to 26.0 yrs old made it (less than normal probably)
100% of teams aged over 26 to 27.0 yrs old made it (more than normal probably).
77% of teams aged over 27.0 yrs old made it.
A couple of the teams with average age between 25 and 26 took 1 or more steps to get younger but need to see the new minute divisions, at start of season and toward end. More steps in that direction probably appropriate for those not in contention for playoffs. How many of the 6 in this age band who didn't make playoffs last season but will this season? I dunno. They all think they could.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The 6 teams in the 25.0 to 26.0 age band who didn't make playoffs last season averaged 0.7 guys +2 or better on DRIP and 1.3 between +1 and +2. Only 2 of the 6 met both criteria- the team with best record in group and team with best star, expected in playoffs before injury and tear down.
Lack of a sufficient #1 or #2 or both is a pretty good reason for not making playoffs in that season or future seasons unless that changes.
Of course rest of cast matters, as does Coach and overall organization.
Only 1 of the 6 (Hornets) was above average on offensive efficiency. None on overall defensive efficiency. Typically just 1 above average on specific factors, with just 1 factor with two.
So below average on stars and below average performance almost everywhere is not enough for playoffs. Sounds true. Better change those things next season or try to change those things soon after with roster and / or coaching or other moves.
Lack of a sufficient #1 or #2 or both is a pretty good reason for not making playoffs in that season or future seasons unless that changes.
Of course rest of cast matters, as does Coach and overall organization.
Only 1 of the 6 (Hornets) was above average on offensive efficiency. None on overall defensive efficiency. Typically just 1 above average on specific factors, with just 1 factor with two.
So below average on stars and below average performance almost everywhere is not enough for playoffs. Sounds true. Better change those things next season or try to change those things soon after with roster and / or coaching or other moves.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Lots of changes in league stat averages to date compared to past seasons. But I'll wait longer to see which persist before running thru the long list.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Some of the trends to monitor to see if they persist are slightly less 3ptas and slightly lower 3pt fg%, than last season, about 10 year high on offensive rebound rate, 20 year high on blocks...
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Most effective player pairs in 50 most used so far are Booker - Bridges by almost 50% over next best, which are 3 Anunoby pairs.
Worst in 50 most used are K Porter - J Smith and J Green - J Smith by 50% over next worst, which is Lowry - Herro.
At trio level, 3 Blazer units compete with an Anunoby trio for best in 50 most used (over 100 minutes).
At quad level, the Griz have best performing, followed by Blazers, Hawks, Wizards, Raptors, Suns and Jazz (not in order).
Only 7 lineups in league over 50 minutes. Will check further into 5 man leaders later when the minute levels are higher.
Worst in 50 most used are K Porter - J Smith and J Green - J Smith by 50% over next worst, which is Lowry - Herro.
At trio level, 3 Blazer units compete with an Anunoby trio for best in 50 most used (over 100 minutes).
At quad level, the Griz have best performing, followed by Blazers, Hawks, Wizards, Raptors, Suns and Jazz (not in order).
Only 7 lineups in league over 50 minutes. Will check further into 5 man leaders later when the minute levels are higher.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Warriors playing at almost an average pace of 110 so far. Nobody for full last season was at or above 101. Currently 13 teams are over 101. Lakers at 106. Probably not their choice.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Who are the very best performing teams so far? MOV, SRS and wins have different orders. There is a group of 7-10 with cases. Some will drift down, maybe especially those aided by weak SOS.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Worst performing team? Pistons by MOV, SRS and Net Rating. Magic by w-l.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
By BPM estimate, Barkley's second worst season ever (his last) was better than Klay Thompson's 2nd best.
Thompson, 1 season over +4, just 1 season over +2 actually. Currently -8.3.
Thompson, 1 season over +4, just 1 season over +2 actually. Currently -8.3.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Anfernee Simons. -5.5 BPM, worst of career, though 3 of 5 seasons are close to that.
Not my idea of a $100 million player...
Keon Johnson, doing some things well but 56% turnover rate pulls him to almost -10 on BPM.
Not my idea of a $100 million player...
Keon Johnson, doing some things well but 56% turnover rate pulls him to almost -10 on BPM.