2022-23 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

There's a negative-0.41 correlation between the age of a team and how they're over-achieving relative to predictions.

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tm     age   over       tm    age   over
LAC   29.7  -10.0      NOP   25.9    5.5
Mil   29.5   -0.5      Tor   25.7   -3.4
Brk   28.7   -5.3      Cle   25.6    8.6
LAL   28.4   -8.2      Min   25.5   -7.3
Phl   28.3   -5.8      Por   25.4    9.4
Dal   28.2   -0.5      Sac   25.4    8.3
Mia   28.1   -9.0      Atl   25.1   -2.6
Chi   28.0    2.5      NYK   25.1   -3.0
Phx   27.7    3.3      Mem   24.6   -3.5
GSW   27.5  -10.1      SAS   24.4   -7.3
Bos   27.4    3.7      Ind   24.2   14.0
Uta   27.1   12.6      Det   24.0   -1.1
Den   26.8   -6.9      Orl   23.1    2.4
Was   26.6    4.5      OKC   22.9   12.6
Cha   26.0   -6.3      Hou   22.4    4.0

Relative to the avg of predictions here (not including dummy entries), the 10 oldest teams (by age on the court) are projecting to under-achieve by 43 wins.
The 10 youngest teams appear headed to win 24 more games, and the middle 10 total 20 more than expected.

The contrast is even more dramatic if the old guys were getting their expected minutes: Lakers without LeBron, for example, register as younger than they'd be with him on the floor.

[Crow]

(I don't see enough reason to edit past summaries. As soon as a new summary is posted, anything earlier fades away imo. In the end, it is about the last one.)

[Crow]

But if the past is remembered and valued, trend lines or smoothed trend lines or trend lines with weighted decay on past results could be explored.

At one point DARKO had a team rating (I thought) but it isn't on site now.

There probably is better than BRef. Could use average of 4 current best entries or 4 best from last season or a blend of whatever you want. I know other things have been tried in past. Or keep it simple as is / good enough.

[Mike G]

I am de-regressing the b-r.com forecast a bit more each day. Today, they say Bos is headed to 56 wins, but I'm comparing your guesses to 59 for Bos.
Worst team Spurs are exacerbated from 22.4 down to 19.1

Seeing how closely teams are trending toward last year's record and 41-41, I've ditched the Pythagorean '22 and replaced it with ('22 + 41)/2 -- called 22Re.
Also added 41-41 for every team as a 'submission', and they are riding in the middle of the pack.

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.   avg err   rmse          avg err   rmse
LEBR   5.11   6.45      emin   6.82   8.11
22Re   5.45   7.24      vegas  6.86   8.75
ncs.   5.70   7.01      TmRk   6.88   8.59
DRKO   5.91   7.10      538E   6.93   9.04
vzro   5.94   7.20      538R   7.08   7.84
EBPI   5.97   6.99      AnBa   7.33   8.86
dtka   6.15   6.91      nuFi   7.46   8.98
trzu   6.27   7.47      EExp   7.52   9.00
Crow   6.40   7.75      MPra   7.86   9.47
4141   6.65   8.74      2022   8.03   9.62
BIPM   6.66   8.29            

UPDATE Nov.28 -- big improvement for all but dummies

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.   avg err   rmse          avg err   rmse
LEBR   5.01   6.33      emin   6.54   7.86
22Re   5.45   7.27      TmRk   6.64   8.24
ncs.   5.53   6.77     vegas   6.64   8.39
EBPI   5.69   6.71      538E   6.77   8.84
vzro   5.72   6.96      4141   6.88   9.15
dtka   5.82   6.67      538R   6.88   7.65
DRKO   5.83   6.89      AnBa   7.01   8.43
trzu   6.11   7.14      nuFi   7.21   8.61
BIPM   6.24   7.84      EExp   7.33   8.64
Crow   6.24   7.39      2022   7.68   9.30
.                       MPra   7.72   9.10

[knarsu3]

Either works for me. BIPM might make more sense

Great, that makes all kind of sense. I'll try to work it in for the next summary.
Meantime I suppose I can edit all the previous ones, replacing LEBR with BBIP -- or BIPM, if you prefer -- I just like 4-character column headers.

[bbstats]

@mike - Can we add Pelton's in?

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/inside ... s-slipping

Also if you could share / show how your target is generated, or just post to google sheets that would help analyze a bit.

[Mike G]

@mike - Can we add Pelton's in?

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/inside ... s-slipping

Without objection, yes.
This link was offered up earlier, but:
1) I'm not gonna pay money for it; and
2) He didn't offer up his player minutes, nor did he actively submit his entry. He not only is aware of our annual contest, he started this site.

If you (or anyone) posts his predictions here, I can add them to the field.

[knarsu3]

@mike Can you add in R^2 as well?

[knarsu3]

Here are Pelton's:

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Pelton 	Wins
PHO	49.0
DEN	47.9
NO	47.6
MEM	46.1
MIN	45.7
LAC	43.6
DAL	43.1
GSW	41.9
LAL	36.8
POR	36.6
SAC	36.5
UTA	34.9
SAS	31.2
OKC	26.9
HOU	26.7
BOS	53.9
MIL	49.5
PHI	48.3
TOR	47.4
ATL	46.2
MIA	45.9
BKN	45.6
CLE	42.9
NYK	41.5
CHA	40.8
WAS	40.0
CHI	38.1
IND	38.0
ORL	30.6
DET	25.7

@mike - Can we add Pelton's in?

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/inside ... s-slipping

Without objection, yes.
This link was offered up earlier, but:
1) I'm not gonna pay money for it; and
2) He didn't offer up his player minutes, nor did he actively submit his entry. He not only is aware of our annual contest, he started this site.

If you (or anyone) posts his predictions here, I can add them to the field.

[Mike G]

The 'target' projections are from b-r.com, which has in the last couple of days toned down their regressing-to-.500.
I was de-regressing it to more closely resemble teams' actual performance to date; and now I am scaling back that effort, so that in a week or so it will be just what they say here:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

Adding Kevin Pelton and squared mean root error column.

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.   avg err   rmse   smre          avg err   rmse   smre
KPel   4.85   6.01   4.10      TmRk   6.60   8.24   5.60
LEBR   4.92   6.24   4.01     vegas   6.60   8.35   5.64
ncs.   5.47   6.66   4.79      emin   6.66   7.95   5.83
22Re   5.56   7.32   4.51      538R   6.83   7.64   6.28
EBPI   5.78   6.85   5.13      538E   6.88   8.87   5.63
vzro   5.80   6.96   5.01      AnBa   6.91   8.43   6.01
dtka   5.82   6.67   5.23      4141   7.03   9.22   5.65
DRKO   5.91   6.94   5.32      EExp   7.21   8.63   6.38
trzu   6.10   7.16   5.57      nuFi   7.28   8.59   6.40
Crow   6.23   7.37   5.55      2022   7.62   9.32   6.44
BIPM   6.23   7.70   5.36      MPra   7.64   9.08   6.69   

Kevin's predictions looked kind of wishy-washy at first glance, with all teams between 26 and 53 (Det/Bos).
But he has the highest guess on Ind (by far), OKC, and Was (tie); lowest on Phl, Dal, GSW, Mem -- all of which look very
good right now.

TeamRanking is so close to Vegas, it's hard to consider it a legitimately original entry. I already tossed out 'vegas2' for being a shadow entity.
4141 recently took a dive toward the bottom; but they are the leader at exponent<0.07 -- currently with direct hits on Ind, Was, Mia, and GSW; also best guess on Min, OKC, Sac, and Por.

[bbstats]

Very helpful Mike! Could you add 4141 back in to this post?

[Mike G]

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse          avg err   rmse
KPel   4.59   5.76      TmRk   6.38   8.01
LEBR   4.65   5.89     vegas   6.39   8.14
ncs.   5.23   6.36      emin   6.39   7.70
22Re   5.24   7.02      4141   6.64   8.95
vzro   5.40   6.53      538E   6.68   8.51
EBPI   5.47   6.48      538R   6.73   7.50
dtka   5.53   6.34      AnBa   6.83   8.23
DRKO   5.65   6.69      nuFi   6.95   8.33
trzu   5.83   6.96      EExp   7.05   8.37
BIPM   5.94   7.44      MPra   7.53   8.92
Crow   5.97   7.13      2022   7.59   9.11

UPDATE Dec.3

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.   avg err   rmse          avg err   rmse
KPel   4.26   5.53      emin   6.01   7.50
LEBR   4.83   5.88      TmRk   6.20   7.80
22Re   4.85   6.55     vegas   6.21   7.97
ncs.   4.93   6.21      4141   6.23   8.32
EBPI   5.18   6.23      538E   6.31   8.19
vzro   5.20   6.34      538R   6.60   7.39
DRKO   5.26   6.47      AnBa   6.69   8.09
dtka   5.39   6.23      nuFi   6.88   8.14
trzu   5.58   6.86      EExp   7.02   8.25
Crow   5.81   6.98      MPra   7.45   8.79
BIPM   5.96   7.67      2022   7.71   9.01

[v-zero]

I described the Pelton predictions after they were initially posted on page one as 'fascinatingly conservative'. It certainly seems that 'presciently conservative' would have been a better phrase.

[tarrazu]

I described the Pelton predictions after they were initially posted on page one as 'fascinatingly conservative'. It certainly seems that 'presciently conservative' would have been a better phrase.

That's probably been a fair criticism most seasons and will also look better early in the season.

[Mike G]

"Conservative" could mean all guesses within a narrow range; or close to last year's record; or close to what everyone else thinks. Kevin had at least as many highest and lowest guesses as any of our self submitted entries.
Imagine where the ESPN Experts' consensus would be without KP's input.

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.   avg err   rmse          avg err   rmse
KPel   4.99   6.26      emin   6.56   8.10
22Re   5.24   7.29      TmRk   6.59   8.20
LEBR   5.34   6.45     vegas   6.60   8.33
ncs.   5.35   6.86      4141   6.72   8.90
EBPI   5.52   6.89      538E   6.75   8.76
DRKO   5.59   6.96      538R   6.90   7.88
vzro   5.62   7.05      AnBa   6.94   8.44
dtka   5.69   6.73      nuFi   7.08   8.56
avg.   5.76   6.94      EExp   7.30   8.63
trzu   5.94   7.33      MPra   7.51   9.11
BIPM   6.10   7.92      2022   8.03   9.57
Crow   6.25   7.39