There are only 28 lineups across league used 200 plus minutes for season. So less than 1 per team.
9 better than +8 / 48 min. 5 for really top teams. 2 each for Sixers and Nuggets. Celtics, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Knicks have the others.
No strong qualifiers for Bucks, Cavs, Griz or anybody else.
Lots of failures to produce what seems pretty necessary to go deep in playoffs.
Even 200 minutes is short. Only qualifier equivalent to over 6 minutes per game for season by a really strong team belongs to Nuggets.
Pistons with the by far worst qualifier.
'22-23 Commentary
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
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Re: '22-23 Commentary
~59 games into the season, teams should have 1-2 lineups preferably with 295+ total minutes (i.e., 5 MPG) of court time.
However, even one lineup with between approximately 191 (about 3.2 MPG) and 295 minutes played is fine,
However, even one lineup with between approximately 191 (about 3.2 MPG) and 295 minutes played is fine,
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Kings with biggest minute lineup. Average 11 min / gm for season but 14 min / gm when actually used.
Imo lineup management should aim for that level and some can do more.
Teams with no lineup over 200 minutes include Griz, Hornets, Wizards, Mavs, Bucks, Pelicans, Thunder, Lakers, Clippers and Spurs.
Imo lineup management should aim for that level and some can do more.
Teams with no lineup over 200 minutes include Griz, Hornets, Wizards, Mavs, Bucks, Pelicans, Thunder, Lakers, Clippers and Spurs.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wiseman scores 23. Pistons shot 3 for 26 from 3. Pistons lose.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Spurs will be 4 years without playoff appearance, 6 without a playoff series win.
Thunder, 2 years without playoff appearance, 6 without a playoff series win before this season's outcome.
Contention was quite awhile ago. Not in sight for Spurs at all. Thunder, not clear when. First step is making playoffs. If not this season, next season probably will have tougher competition.
Thunder, 2 years without playoff appearance, 6 without a playoff series win before this season's outcome.
Contention was quite awhile ago. Not in sight for Spurs at all. Thunder, not clear when. First step is making playoffs. If not this season, next season probably will have tougher competition.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Billy Donovan's teams have not won a first round playoff series in 6 years, losing 5 and not making it once.
BRef only gives a 27% chance of making playoffs. Probably close to 90% chance from here they don't win the series. That would make 7 winless years. But extended before the season.
Karnišovas' decisions to hire and extend early. Free agent decisions, etc. Not where they aimed / expected to be, so far. More likely to get worse than better?
BRef only gives a 27% chance of making playoffs. Probably close to 90% chance from here they don't win the series. That would make 7 winless years. But extended before the season.
Karnišovas' decisions to hire and extend early. Free agent decisions, etc. Not where they aimed / expected to be, so far. More likely to get worse than better?
Re: '22-23 Commentary
So Jordan Goodwin was a big rebounding guard in college who is nothing special rebounding in the NBA for Wizards. And Johnny Davis is the same. And now the Wizards get another big rebounding guard out of Australia. Will he rebound above average, for team impact? Is the team rebounding concern going to be fixed by a guard?
And the Wizards have Avdija, a pretty good rebounder, better than the first 2 at least, who some claim is or can be a guard but rarely plays there for Wizards?
And with current roster, is all this just about who gets minutes as 4th or 5th or 6th guard / replaces K Nunn next season?
Or is it bigger than that?
If Kuzma leaves, does Avdija take his place and Kispert take Avdija's place, creating room for more bench guard play?
Are both Morris and Wright going to be back?
Getting to FT line is also a pretty big issue. Morris, Wright, Goodwin, Davis are all below average on FT rate. Cooks got to FT line more this season but only hit 54% of time. Avdija is above average on FT rate but is fairly low usage. Not likely for team to improve there with these guards.
And the Wizards have Avdija, a pretty good rebounder, better than the first 2 at least, who some claim is or can be a guard but rarely plays there for Wizards?
And with current roster, is all this just about who gets minutes as 4th or 5th or 6th guard / replaces K Nunn next season?
Or is it bigger than that?
If Kuzma leaves, does Avdija take his place and Kispert take Avdija's place, creating room for more bench guard play?
Are both Morris and Wright going to be back?
Getting to FT line is also a pretty big issue. Morris, Wright, Goodwin, Davis are all below average on FT rate. Cooks got to FT line more this season but only hit 54% of time. Avdija is above average on FT rate but is fairly low usage. Not likely for team to improve there with these guards.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The Spurs lose by -10pts / 100p on average. They have no 5 man lineups still possible and over 1 minute per game and positive. All 20 most used pairs are negative. K Johnson - Sochan, K Johnson - Collins, K Johnson - KBP and K Johnson - Vassell are the 4 worst at -14 to -17 / 100p.
Strangely up all 5 together and they are positive but in only 45 minute sample. If they believe in group, get 200-300 minutes more test in the final part of season. I doubt that is the future but either prove it or decide to change it.
Strangely up all 5 together and they are positive but in only 45 minute sample. If they believe in group, get 200-300 minutes more test in the final part of season. I doubt that is the future but either prove it or decide to change it.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Mavericks and Warriors chances to get 4th seed slipped a bit tonight. Falling further below 20% chance according to BRef.
First round defeat would be a bitter pill and a pretty negative report card on recent decisions.
First round defeat would be a bitter pill and a pretty negative report card on recent decisions.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Wizards rebounded a lot tonight. But light on getting to FT libe and very poor shooting. Game lost.
Probably make play-in tournament, fwiw; but not assured. Not making that would be pretty bad look.
Probably make play-in tournament, fwiw; but not assured. Not making that would be pretty bad look.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Celtics have 10 on roster with a BPM of -1 of better. G Williams is a bit lower and Pritchard way lower.
Bucks have 11. Sixers 9 and not Milton or Tucker. Cavs 12, with D Green but not quite LeVert.
Nuggets... just 6. Not D Jordan, Braun or J Green.
Griz 9 but definitely not D Brooks, Z Williams or Kennard.
Suns 7. Warriors 9, but not Poole, Kuminga, Green or Moody.
East with deeper lists of "adequate" players. Playoffs are mostly about top players but the last guys in the rotation may have important impacts here and there.
Nuggets and Suns are very short on playables. Should be trying for late adds. Could be criticized some for the extreme shortness of their lists. Cavs and Bucks deserve some praise, for roster depth acquisition and acceptable utilization.
Of course there are other metrics to estimate player adequacy and they will vary some from BPM. BPM was just the first grab.
Bucks have 11. Sixers 9 and not Milton or Tucker. Cavs 12, with D Green but not quite LeVert.
Nuggets... just 6. Not D Jordan, Braun or J Green.
Griz 9 but definitely not D Brooks, Z Williams or Kennard.
Suns 7. Warriors 9, but not Poole, Kuminga, Green or Moody.
East with deeper lists of "adequate" players. Playoffs are mostly about top players but the last guys in the rotation may have important impacts here and there.
Nuggets and Suns are very short on playables. Should be trying for late adds. Could be criticized some for the extreme shortness of their lists. Cavs and Bucks deserve some praise, for roster depth acquisition and acceptable utilization.
Of course there are other metrics to estimate player adequacy and they will vary some from BPM. BPM was just the first grab.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Not re-signing Alex Caruso was a massive failure of judgment by Rob Pelinkas, Jeannie Buss and the Rambis.
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:24 am
Re: '22-23 Commentary
The worst part is that the Lakers essentially chose a fringe rotation player in Horton-Tucker over Caruso.
LAL could have kept the NBA’s best point-of-attack & switching big defensive combo in Caruso and Davis.
LAL could have kept the NBA’s best point-of-attack & switching big defensive combo in Caruso and Davis.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Horton-Tucker rookie stats, only strengths were steal rate and defense. Pretty to very weak elsewhere. Year 2 big improvement on assists and getting to FT line but not much overall improvement as steal rate and DPM both fall by half. Couldn't live without him. Laker ownership couldn't bear to part with the money (presumably profit) to keep both him and Caruso. Year 3 and 4 little improvement and overall decline. Young player with "potential" supposedly but not so much in actual performance.
Big games or month as a rookie? Nope. As a sophomore? 7 big games but no big months. Big games are not enough. Hype is not enough.
Big games or month as a rookie? Nope. As a sophomore? 7 big games but no big months. Big games are not enough. Hype is not enough.
Re: '22-23 Commentary
Lots of teams could be in or out of playoffs to the play-in level. The teams most on in between edge are Raptors, Wizards, Lakers and Pelicans.
Probably the respective GMs and Head Coaches would survive being "out", but not 100% certain in all cases.
Probably the respective GMs and Head Coaches would survive being "out", but not 100% certain in all cases.