Comparing BPM and DarkoPM

[kmedved]

1) Yes - DARKO is always a projection. The historic trajectory is a snapshot of where DARKO projected a guy to be as of that game. I don't "go backwards" and update with "well, in retrospect, this uptick in performance was more sustainable than DARKO thought."

The LOESS smoothing can sort of be thought of doing that however (but very crudely).

2) The DARKO projections are always the last datapoint. The trend line is just to aid with visualization, and as noted above, are not out of sample.

[Crow]

Thanks for the reply. Wanted to sure.


Chet and Victor are less than a point apart of DPM and the prior is part of that.

I'll be watching what happens to the large BPM difference. Holmgren 3pt fg% bumps over 50% at the moment.

[DSMok1]

Thanks for the reply. Wanted to sure.


Chet and Victor are less than a point apart of DPM and the prior is part of that.

I'll be watching what happens to the large BPM difference. Holmgren 3pt fg% bumps over 50% at the moment.

Holmgren's 3-point percentage is rightly deemed by DPM to be unsustainable. BPM just measures what he's actually done.

[Mike G]

3-pt shooting may be contagious. OKC currently is tied with Dal for best 3FG% at .395. This is the best team 3FG% since the 2021 LAC.
These Thunders and those Clippers both are/were avg or below league 3PAr (3FGA/FGA) in spite of high accuracy.

Several of those Clipps maintained career-high 3fg%, and almost all were above their career success rate:

Code: Select all

'21 Clippers   3FG  3fg%     3FG  3FG%
Paul George    171  .411    2042  .381
Marcus Morris  140  .473    1252  .376
Reggie Jackson 122  .433    1059  .344
Nic Batum      110  .404    1599  .365
Kawhi Leonard  101  .398     994  .388
Luke Kennard   100  .446     700  .435
Pat Beverley    56  .397     914  .372
Lou Williams    45  .378    1457  .351
Pat Patterson   40  .357     630  .369
Serge Ibaka     39  .339    1709  .359
Terance Mann    38  .418     200  .381
Amir Coffey     23  .411     136  .367
Rajon Rondo     19  .432     449  .324
Dem. Cousins     8  .421     426  .331 

Career totals on the right. How is this explained?
Pat P. was at the end of his career; Serge was also fading fast.