Thunder lineup analysis and other commentary

[Crow]

28th on home attendance now.

[Crow]

Thunder, 2nd best on SRS, 8th on W-L, 11th against Sagarin top 10, 10th against top 16.

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201 lineups used in 18 games. Just one for an average over 1.5 minutes per game.

2nd thru 4th most used are all terrible.

SGA - Holmgren, +13/100p.

SGA - Joe, +27 but only 11th most used.

[Crow]

Thunder down to 11th on at rim shot frequency and 16th on rim fg%.

13th on ft rate, 18th on 3pt rate.

Really average Moreyball distribution but very high on results. Skill and / or randomness.


SGA near +11 BPM, double Holmgren. Joe the by far #3.

Giddey has improved to -2.6. Good for 12th place.

[Crow]

Thunder, best record against East, 10th best against West.
13th best home record, best road record.

Home court in western playoffs? That would be worst look.

[Crow]

Thunder pick numbers are nowhere near known but one name that should be considered desirable and realistic to obtain would be Ryan Dunn. Or Shannon. Others are of interest but may require trade-ups.

[Crow]

Down to 19th on wins against top 10... at just 1.

[Crow]

225 lineups in 21 games.

But apparently a master of the dink game.
Starting lineup down to just +1.3pts / 100p though. Not the mark of a traditional contender.

Of the 3 Giddey, Dort, JDub pairs, Giddey - Willuans is moderately better overall.

Joe continues to have a large number of incredible pairs.

[Crow]

K. Williams +17pts / 100p with Holmgren and should be used more.

Should add other new PF or C for playoffs and beyond, to rebound better and / or guard big scorers. Consolidation trade.

[Crow]

Thunder could probably get Olynyk for playoffs. Do they want to? Probably not.

Good in playoffs, especially last 2 times.

[Crow]

Thunder are top 6 on 5 factors.

To improve, improve over current anywhere; but would appear to be a priority to improve on either or both types of rebounding or fouling less. Or playing more Moreyball. Or contributing to stable, positive bigger minute lineups that Coach D will play and learn more about and can count on.

[Crow]

Tiny minutes but Bertans has shot up to +4 BPM. A mind-boggling 83% fta rate, primarily influenced by one game.

[Crow]

SGA - Holmgren together sees amazing shooting from all levels and horrendous rebounding.

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Thunder are 1 - 4 against top 10.

11 -1 against lottery teams, second only to Sixers. How meaningful is that really for playoffs? The former stat looks more meaningful to me by far.

9 - 6 against West. 10th best among western teams. Very concerning.

Only 11th best home record. Will they take advantage of home court advantage won by beating lottery teams?

Road record slipped to 6th. Good but can a young team be counted on to do it in the playoffs.

Who are the most favorable / unfavorable or likely matchups? Too early to say but 1-3 against 5 most likely first round opponents.

[Crow]

By BPM estimate, Jalen Williams is modestly worse than last season, because of DBPM.

Raw on / off has moved to terrible -11.

By contrast, I Joe's BPM went way up and his raw on / off is +16. Team +/- with him on court is 17 times as good as witj him off. Start him? They haven't and probably haven't seriously considered given design rigidity / politics.

Minutes went down slightly from November to December. That ain't right.

But no critique of Coach D has a chance of sticking in these salad days. Maybe after playoffs, things might be different. Or maybe he'll better deserve the strong praise already received (from dominating the weakest).