Poll: Your all-time greatest players

[Mike G]

These players are from alltime top 35 career Win Shares, top 35 VORP, top 25 playoff WS or VORP, and/or top 25 playoff PER.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_p.html
You may pick up to 20. You may change your selections later.

[Mike G]

5 respondents have voted for 25 of the 50 listed. An avg of 16 votes per voter.
10 players have received 5 votes:
Kareem, Wilt, Duncan, Garnett, LeBron, Magic, Jordan, Olajuwon, Shaq, and Russell.
4 : Bird, Jokic
3 : Kobe
2 : Curry, Durant, Karl Malone, Paul, Oscar, Robinson, West
1 : Giannis, Barkley, Moses, Pippen, Stockton

[Mike G]

Here's about an hour's worth of looking up top vote-getters' rank in some stats -- regular season*, playoffs
* - for some categories I've listed rank for (RS+PO), PO
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... eaderboard

Code: Select all

player    min*   PER    WS*   WS/48    BPM    VORP*
Kareem    2,3   13,20   2,4    7,14   17,29  (9,10)
Wilt      9,9    7,23   3,6    4,9    (x,x)  (x,x)
Duncan    6,2   14,10   6,3   17,11   17,23   6,3
Garnett   8,46  31,44  12,37  41,74   19,32   7,27
LeBron    1,1    3,4    1,1    9,4     3,3    1,1

Magic    68,10  15,22  24,5    8,7     4,7   10,4
Jordan   27,12   2,2    5,2    2,1     2,1    2,2
Olajuwon 23,34  20,7   25,18  51,19   28,10  19,13
Shaq     22,6    5,6   10,7   19,24   22,27  16,7
Russell  28,11 (x),75  22,9   32,30   (x,x)  (x,x)

player    min*   PER    WS*   WS/48    BPM   VORP*
Bird     62,16  21,37  27,13  24,41    6,12  15,6
Jokic    (x,x)   1,1   47,49   1,3     1,2   23,25
Kobe      4,4   28,25  15,8   64,59   30,28  12,5

x means it doesn't exist, or not in top 100.
Parentheses under BPM and VORP means the career -- Kareem -- was partly before the BPM era.
Suggestions for making this more readable?

[Crow]

It is good enough as is. If want quick reference, there it is.

Key word is RANK.

I guess PER does not hurt to list but I am not paying attention to it. Winshares, a closer call.

[Mike G]

Any decent stat has a purpose, and PER is at least consistent with itself. You can see, for example, if a guy's playoffs tended to be better or worse than his regular seasons.
PER and winshares are done back to 1952, so that's pretty much all we have for the old timers.

Hakeem is hardly top 10 in anything; Garnett similar and less in postseasons.
Current players can of course be expected to decline in per-minute rates while continuing to boost their totals. Joker would have to retire very soon to miss the top 10.

[eminence]

Voted for 20, in the order from the list (*=top 10):
KAJ*
Bird
Kobe
Wilt*
Steph
Duncan*
DrJ
KG*
LeBron*
Magic
Jokic
Jordan*
K. Malone
Mikan*
Nowitzki
Olajuwon*
Shaq*
CP3
Oscar
Russell*

Rough tiers on top 10
LeBron/Russell
Duncan/KAJ
KG/MJ/Shaq/Mikan/Wilt/Hakeem

Magic my #11, who I'll put top 10 depending on how I'm feeling about placing Mikan.

[Mike G]

A list of total VORP, broken down by regular season and playoff totals.
Total+ weighs playoff VORP 3 times as heavily as RS.
tot+ = 5/6 *Reg + 2.5*Pla
The great majority of those listed get their total boosted by this formula; but they tend to have better teams and get more minutes in postseason. Overall, total VORP (or WS or whatever) are about even.
* indicates incomplete totals, since they played before 1974.

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tot+   VORP          tot  Reg  Pla
219   LeBron James   191  155  36
159   Michael Jordan 141  116  25
122   Tim Duncan     110   91  19
121   John Stockton  119  107  13
113   Karl Malone    111   99  12
112   Magic Johnson   98   80  18
112   Chris Paul     110   99  12
110   Kevin Durant   102   87  15
107   Kobe Bryant     96   80  16
104   Kevin Garnett  106   97   9
104 * Kareem A-J      99   86  13
103   Larry Bird      93   77  15
101  Shaquille O'Neal 91   76  15
100 * Julius Erving   94   80  13
100   Dirk Nowitzki   97   85  12
100   James Harden    95   82  12
94   Hakeem Olajuwon  87   74  13
92   Charles Barkley  91   80  10
92   Stephen Curry    85   73  12
90   David Robinson   91   82   9
88   Scottie Pippen   77   63  14
85   Jason Kidd       83   73  10
85   Clyde Drexler    81   70  11
83   Nikola Jokić     80   71  10
83   Dwyane Wade      75   63  12
79   Reggie Miller    76   66   9
75   Paul Pierce      74   66   8
72   Kawhi Leonard    61   48  13
68   Giannis A        67   59   7
68   Ray Allen        65   58   8
67  Russell Westbrook 66   59   7
66   Pau Gasol        65   58   7
66   Manu Ginóbili    58   48  10
65   Gary Payton      68   63   5
63   Jimmy Butler     58   49   9
59   Vince Carter     62   58   4
59   Patrick Ewing    57   50   7
58   Al Horford       52   44   9
58   Anthony Davis    59   54   5
57  Chauncey Billups  52   44   8
56   Tracy McGrady    60   56   4
56   Isiah Thomas     50   42   8
55   Damian Lillard   58   54   4
55   Allen Iverson    55   50   5
54   Steve Nash       54   48   6
52   Paul George      50   44   6
52 * Artis Gilmore    55   52   4
52   Maurice Cheeks   49   42   7
51   Moses Malone     51   45   5
50   Jeff Hornacek    48   42   6
50   Terry Porter     49   43   6
50   Andre Iguodala   47   41   6
50   Bobby Jones      47   41   6
49   Shawn Marion     52   48   4
49   Kyrie Irving     48   43   5
48  Dominique Wilkins 53   51   3
48   Rasheed Wallace  45   38   7
48   Kevin McHale     42   34   8
47   Kyle Lowry       48   43   4
47   Ben Wallace      43   36   7
46   Robert Parish    45   41   5
44   Dwight Howard    44   39   5

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... eer_c.html

Same deal with Win Shares:

Code: Select all

tot+    Win Shares    tot    Reg   Pla
371    LeBron James   328    269    59
317    Kareem         309    273    36
285  Wilt Chamberlain 279    247    31
278   Michael Jordan  254    214    40
267    Tim Duncan     244    206    38
253    Karl Malone    258    235    23
231    Chris Paul     235    214    21
230   Dirk Nowitzki   229    206    23
229  Shaquille O'Neal 213    182    31
226   John Stockton   229    208    21
218   Julius Erving   208    181    27
215    Kobe Bryant    201    173    28
211    Kevin Durant   201    174    27
211   Magic Johnson   188    156    33
206    Bill Russell   191    164    28
202    Jerry West     189    163    27
201   Kevin Garnett   208    191    16
196  Charles Barkley  197    177    20
196    James Harden   192    171    22
195   Reggie Miller   194    174    20
193   David Robinson  196    179    18
192  Hakeem Olajuwon  185    163    23
192  Oscar Robertson  203    189    14
191   Artis Gilmore   203    190    13
186    Moses Malone   194    179    15
184    Larry Bird     171    146    25
171    Dan Issel      174    158    16
170   Stephen Curry   161    139    22
166    Ray Allen      163    145    18
166    Paul Pierce    166    150    16
163   Scottie Pippen  149    125    24
161   Robert Parish   163    147    16
159    Pau Gasol      160    144    16
158   John Havlicek   151    132    19
155    Dwyane Wade    142    121    22
154    Dolph Schayes  156    142    14
152    Dwight Howard  155    142    14
152  Chauncey Billups 141    121    21
152    Clyde Drexler  151    136    16
152    Jason Kidd     153    139    14
149    Gary Payton    157    146    11
149    Horace Grant   138    118    20
146    Kevin McHale   134    113    21
143    Bob Pettit     148    136    12
142    Al Horford     134    115    18
142    Jimmy Butler   136    119    17
141    Nikola Jokić   139    124    15
141    Kawhi Leonard  123    100    23
141    Manu Ginóbili  127    106    21
141    Patrick Ewing  141    126    14
140    Rick Barry     142    129    13
138    Steve Nash     142    130    12
134    Walt Frazier   129    114    16
134   Adrian Dantley  143    134     9
133  * George Mikan   126    109    17
130    Elvin Hayes    132    121    12
127    Jeff Hornacek  123    109    14
127    Shawn Marion   134    125     9
127    Tony Parker    125    111    14
126   Rasheed Wallace 120    105    15
125    Anthony Davis  129    119    11
125    Elgin Baylor   120    104    15
125    Zelmo Beaty    121    106    15
124    Giannis A      127    116    11
124    Wes Unseld     123    110    13
123    Chet Walker    128    117    10
123    Vince Carter   133    125     7
122   Dikembe Mutombo 127    117    10
121    George Gervin  126    116    10
121    Terry Porter   122    110    12
120    Walt Bellamy   135    130     5
120    Buck Williams  128    120     8
119 Russell Westbrook 123    113    10

At the bottom of the list are several who are not helped by the playoff enhancement. We may assume there are a few others who would rank higher than Westbrook. Horry?

[DSMok1]

For all-time greatest lists, I prefer to look at VOA, or Value over Average. This is more reflective of value on a contending team in the playoffs--players below average shouldn't get playing time in late rounds of the playoffs.

This would just be BPM*(minutes/3936) as opposed to VORP, which is (BPM + Replacement Level, currently 2.0)*(minutes/3936).

This change reduces the effect of a long career and instead gives benefit to star seasons. Below average seasons at the beginning or end of a career do not help; to balance things out it may be most useful to zero out seasons below average so they are not a negative.

--

My personal top 10 looks like this:

1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Wilt Chamberlain
8. Hakeem Olajuwon
9. Kevin Garnett
10. Magic Johnson

[Mike G]

BPM is done since 1974, just after a lot of the early greats had stopped playing.
Kareem is one of the few top-50 favorites to have significant years before and after that time; and his 3 best seasons -- by far, according to Win Shares -- are not counted in his VORP total.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... l_advanced

His first 4 years account for .304 of his career Reg Sea WS and .222 of his PO WS.
Give him this much more VORP for his career, and he would have 111.8 in RS and 15.9 in PO.
With this adjustment, he's #3 in RS (after LeBron and MJ), #6 in PO (after also Duncan, Magic, and Kobe).
This puts him #3 in both raw and PO*3 total VORP for his career.

[Mike G]

My personal top 10 looks like this:

1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Shaquille O'Neal
7. Wilt Chamberlain
8. Hakeem Olajuwon
9. Kevin Garnett
10. Magic Johnson

Is there a statistical basis for Russell being 3 spots over Wilt?
Wilt has 50% more season WS and ends up with 13% more in playoffs.
WS/48 .250 - .190, PER 26-19
Playoffs a bit closer. Russ had better teammates mostly.

[Crow]

No real surprise in consensus top 14, in no real surprise limited voting.

Maybe some surprise in who gets left out of top 14 but top 20-25 shouldn't cause much surprise or much complaint.

[schtevie]

If one is considering regular season BPM as the referential metric in determining GOATiness (as one should) one really ought not ignore the elephant (er, 280 pound Serbian) in the room. Though Nikola Jokic clearly has not yet had anything approaching a full career (is he even at his peak yet?) his record to date clearly establishes him as heads above both LBJ and MJ.

He already has four of the five top season's on record (LJB has #3), and if you rank season's by these three players in terms of descending BPM, taking the top five years, the averages are Jokic 13.20, MJ 11.86, and LBJ 11.70.

Unless one can plausibly argue that Jokic will face an imminent and precipitous drop-off in efficiency, this is only a competition for second place.

As for minutes-weighting the statistic, this strikes me as problematic, especially when comparing players across eras. Minutes are primarily the prerogative of coaches, and beliefs in load management have changed significantly over time.

What's (a bit) interesting (to me) is why Jokic is conventionally ignored in these (often sterile) debates. I think that answer is a bit obvious, but time will out.

[eminence]

Jokic's making his case, but BPM is 'just' an estimate of another stat that's generally preferred by most folks here (BPM is great and I greatly appreciate Daniel sharing his process here), and in that other stat (mid-term rapm), Jokic doesn't measure up *that* well to the top of the class. LeBron/KG/Steph/Duncan generally in some order for guys who had full careers in the pbp era.

Combined with a relative lack of team success to date and being mid career, it's tough to seem him in the top 10 yet, though I could see somewhere around 20th.

[Mike G]

Jokic thru age 29 has shown no sign of decline, but these others have had those down years. So rather than compare his "career" to those which are completed (or nearly), lets compare them in the same age range.

Kareem doesn't fit entirely within the BPM era (1974-) but see above where I estimate his career VORP as proportional to his career WinShares, after and including his 1970-1973 heyday.
BPM is another derivation, and here I've estimated it by bpm = vorp*3970/min-2 -- where vorp is an estimate.

Code: Select all

age 20-29   regular seasons        postseasons
goat?     min     BPM   VORP     min    BPM   VORP  <O>
Jokic    23062   10.3   71.4    3038   10.8    9.8   1
Jordan   25842   10.9   84.0    4645   12.1   16.5   3
LeBron   30154   10.1   91.6    6717   10.0   20.4   2
Kareem   26349    9.2*  74.3*   3023    8.7*   7.8*  1

The last column is "rings". The other 3 would get a few more after 30.
Kareem averaged 42 mpg thru age 29, Jokic is about 32 mpg for his career.
We could focus on age 23-29 or 25-29 or any other subset of a career. We could concentrate on the value of playoffs; titles.

[DSMok1]

Jokic's making his case, but BPM is 'just' an estimate of another stat that's generally preferred by most folks here (BPM is great and I greatly appreciate Daniel sharing his process here), and in that other stat (mid-term rapm), Jokic doesn't measure up *that* well to the top of the class. LeBron/KG/Steph/Duncan generally in some order for guys who had full careers in the pbp era.

Combined with a relative lack of team success to date and being mid career, it's tough to seem him in the top 10 yet, though I could see somewhere around 20th.

I 100% agree with Eminence. BPM is an outlier in its view of Jokic, and this should be treated with a bigger grain of salt than normally. (I've been working on some adjustments that will improve BPM's handling of outlier box score stats a bit more.)

I would consider Jokic a top 10 offensive player but not overall. At his current pace he could reach top 10 by the end of his career but not top 5.