'24-25 commentary

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Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Magic, 2 above league average efg%, 14 below and none close to the average.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Doncic with lowest efg% of career and after tonight might push closer to career low on ts%.

All-time highest usage rate.

Turned 26 a couple of weeks ago.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Risacher by game score:

4 games over GS15 / "good"
14 more over GS10 / "decent"
18 more between GS5 and GS10 / "weak"
22 more under GS5 / "awful"
7 games didn't play.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Max Christie on Mavs, highest usage and pts / gm of career to date. Lowest efficiency and BPM. 17th on team for raw team +/- on the court, 16th on / off.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Doncic on Lakers, BPM barely half of his peak season.

Lakers with 4 straight losses (3 without LeBron) puts them in 5th seed. Quite a spread in probability of final seed. Very unlikely to get back to 2nd seed. 5th or 6th are most likely.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

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Kuzma on Bucks, worst BPM of career. Lowest usage, assist rate and stocks.

Negative on BPM every season.



Kevin Porter Jr., by far best performance of his career.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Could every team in west be about the same or better next season? Maybe in abstract strength, possibly by SRS. Probably not by win-loss, given schedule.

More likely to fall? Maybe Kings, Timberwolves and Lakers.


Could almost every team in east be about the same or worse? Might be biased but that is my take at the moment.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Ryan Dunn, more than -4 on BPM estimate but slightly positive on MAMBA. Every other mainstream metric in -1 to -2 range.

Defensive measure negative on at least a few (didn't check all). 3pt fg% just slightly below 30%. Summer buzz kind of fizzled.


The metrics can vary. In some cases more than others. Using a composite is probably prudent imo. Checking and using just one, not recommended for serious evaluation.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Mamukelashvili.

Plenty could be said.

See what happens in remaining games and in the future.

I'd want him. I would have used more.

Big game raises attention, probably price.

Not sure how much Spurs were actively trying to avoid that. Use was quite light. Far, far less than Sochan, Champagnie, Barnes. 11pts, 7 rebs per game in 2022-23 then bumped back to under 10 minutes per game... Will he stay or go?
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Lakers have lost 7 of last 10. Worst stretch of season. Ups and downs. What's next?

7 of last 11 on road, 9 against playoff or play-in. 2 against Thunder.

2nd to 8th seed all still theoretically possible. 5th is most likely. Tied for 4th at moment.


12-9 when Luka plays.

(A Davis, 2-0 with almost double the BPM. Check back later.)
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Comparing performance In wins and losses, Ja Morant is almost 20 points worse in losses on player offensive rating and 10 pts worse on defensive rating. 7 pts better on net rating at home. Team splits are similar. These marks were for entire season. Recent splits remain bad.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Spurs, 6 years without 35+ wins or a playoff win.


Fox, 18th best raw team +/- on court, 16th best on / off. Worst ts% and BPM with Spurs since rookie season. How much to attribute to a pinkie finger?

Fox - Wembanyama -1 in first 100+ minutes.

Vassell, worst BPM since rookie season.

Champagnie, Sochan and Castle 12th to 14th best on court +/-.

Play Mamukelashvili just 660 minutes and just 140 with Wemby? Re-sign or not? Represented by major agency.

End of the long "beginning" or end the end and began again?

De'Aaron Fox, Julian Champagnie, Jeremy Sochan, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle...

Lineup of future?

Used 1 minute. Sure, circumstances did not allow much time but they sure didn't jump on it.

Quad without Fox? Used just 19 minutes and awful. Much less excuse for not using.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Imo, Pelicans should actively shop everyone on team beyond Williamson and Murphy. And listen if other teams make good offers on Williamson and Murphy.

Missi was not decent this year but was in all of the 9 most used lineups, 8 of which were negative, 5 very bad to putrid. The one positive was starters with Murray. Only got 49 minutes test, 5% of the available Murray time. (Looks ridiculous but I guess need to know rest of the injury pattern..)

Almost 800 lineups used. Plenty of injuries to navigate but there is always most sensible, better proven vs. random dinks.

What did they learn? That they had a disaster and made it worse by not finding anything to emphasize effectively.
GM gone, Coach uncertain.

What is the design now? 1 star? 2 star? Still thinking 3 or 4? What is the evaluation process?What is the timeline? Realistic short-term to intermediate goal? Draft priorities?

Dumars? And who else?

Pelicans transfigure into some version of the Pistons with defense first? Can they sell that to fans? Entertainment or grit or can they pull off both?
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

Rebuild around Booker?

Default or reasoned best option out of all imaginable?

I am very skeptical.
Crow
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Re: '24-25 commentary

Post by Crow »

The Lakers have 8 players they use and then the remaining 10 are generally unimpressive even as deep bench.
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