2025-26 NBA win projections

[Crow]

Early lines from sportsbooks:

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nba/n ... tals-bm23/

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2025/0 ... -nba-team/

Didn't see any obvious surprises. Probably will be some though.

Lakers and Warriors tied for 5th / 6th seeds? Spurs beating Griz, Mavs and Kings for 8th seed?

[Crow]

I consider the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets the big 3 in west, followed by a next 6. Some in my 2nd tier probably think they are 1st tier. Some outside my second tier probably think they are in it too. Maybe 1-2 of the aspirants of each level make the next tier, maybe not. Find out in about 6 months. Will be hard for 11 or 12 to met or exceed expectations.

[Crow]

How will Nuggets look by mid-November or Jan. 1? Great, very good, good or less? What level of results would be enough for more change? What is the most likely change? PG?

[Crow]

Clippers have 11 vets to work with. Lineup management will be key. If they need something, will they go get it?

[Crow]

Where do Lakers "need" to be by end of year to satisfy media and fans? Will they meet that or be short? I think there is a good chance they will be short of expectations, which may be too high.

[Crow]

What will Grizzlies starting lineup be? Stable or not, used much or not? Was under 250 minutes last season and nothing else much over 1 minute per game. Not much data on new Coach.

[Crow]

I guess things could work for Sixers but I doubt it. If it starts bad, how bad does it get? How much change, how quick?

[Crow]

Knicks hopes depends on Mike Brown, especially related to getting the highly paid long-term starters to play better defense, the potential deployment of Mitchell Robinson with starters and lineup management in general. And if that isn't working adequately, trades.

Brunson - Towns was ok in regular season, though modestly lesser than team average net margin. -3 in playoffs. -5 against Pacers. Brunson Anunoby Towns Robinson was almost +2 in short minutes then. Test it better. Bridges was not an effective 5th in playoffs.

Robinson with rest of starters and instead of Towns was a colossal failure in brief regular season test. All of the other 9 of the 10 most used Robinson lineups were good, mostly great. Only one with Towns though. Test 5-10 and settle for the best after that.

Decide if Robinson is an important or vital part of future or consider trade options.

[Italian Stallion]

Robinson with rest of starters and instead of Towns was a colossal failure in brief regular season test. All of the other 9 of the 10 most used Robinson lineups were good, mostly great. Only one with Towns though. Test 5-10 and settle for the best after that.

I think Robinson with Hart is always going to be a problem on offense because of the spacing. That's two players on the court the defense can sag off and sometimes help off. Plus, with Motch in the middle, it tends to hurt Hart's ability to drive.

[Crow]

Draft Kings has Wizards going from 1 game better than last place to....

1 game better than last place.


Jazz from last place to last place.

Nets down to 2nd to last.

What will their GMs do if it heads that way or goes that way?

What will the owners do?

Which of the 2025 draft picks will be notably better than -3 BPM? How much new improvements within the recent draft classes?