Inquiries into stats and comparative detail

[Crow]

Jokic is at career low usage (23.5%) but 2nd best ts%. 2nd best defensive rebounding. Best assists, steals, blocks and 3pta rates. Career low offensive rebounding rate. Fairly near career low FT rate. Career and all-tim3 recorded high BPM.

Is this the new long-term version of Jokic or just a season start?

15 shots per game is around 25% less than his peak last season but it is his career average.

6 straight seasons of league best BPM. Still All-time career leader. 20% above LeBron, 12% above Jordan. Acknowledged by many as today's best. No GOAT talk though.



Doncic up to 4th, passing Magic Johnson. Career best BPM by almost 20%. Could catch James, possibly Jordan. Giannis A. up to 9th with his best ever BPM (and 2nd best ever) so far this season. Could make and move up in top 5 soon. Leonard, Curry, Durant and Harden just outside top 10 and only movement beyond rank between just them will be down a little. SGA into top 20 of those scored / qualified. Nobody else an ascendant threat for top 20 right now. A Davis 17th but probably slips back some with time.

[Mike G]

Of players listed as Center at b-r.com, there are 13 who avg 10+ FGA per game.
All but one has attempted some 3-pointers. Half have raised their eFG% by shooting 3's -- compared to their 2pt FG% -- and half have been hurt.

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eFG-2%   C     tm  3fga 3fg%   2fga  2fg%   eFG%
.047  Şengün  Hou  3.2  .474   12.5  .480   .527
.038  Towns   NYK  5.1  .361    9.6  .433   .471
.031  Vučević Chi  4.4  .484    8.3  .638   .669
.019  Reid    Min  4.4  .387    5.6  .538   .557
.011  Embiid  Phl  4.8  .333    9.4  .468   .479
.002  Adebayo Mia  6.4  .356   10.6  .527   .529
.000  Ayton   LAL  0.0  ----   12.3  .651   .651

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eFG-2%   C       tm  3fga 3fg%   2fga  2fg%   eFG%
-.119  Jokić    Den  5.2  .290    9.5  .772   .653
-.050  Sabonis  Sac  1.8  .182    9.7  .586   .536
-.029  Wemby    SAS  3.5  .286   14.8  .584   .555
-.007  Sarr     Was  2.4  .353   10.9  .566   .559
-.005  Jackson  Mem  4.1  .394    8.3  .606   .601
-.002 Porziņģis Atl  4.7  .357    7.7  .543   .541

Among 68 players with as many 3fga as Jokic, 8 have worse 3fg%.

[Crow]

Fwiw, at this point, Bulls and Lakers +2 over expected wins based on SRS. Celtics -2.

[Crow]

Kings have 2nd highest minute weight age behind Clippers. Quite an issue for current and last season performance.

Last season, 3 below 24. This season, none (bately).

[Crow]

10 strong teams by SRS. Neatly all above average on own scoring. Close to 50-50 on opponent scoring.

[Mike G]

[Jokic has ...]6 straight seasons of league best BPM. Still All-time career leader. 20% above LeBron, 12% above Jordan..
...
Doncic up to 4th, passing Magic Johnson.

Joker is 30, and Luka is 26, so we could compare them to others at these ages.
Separated into retired and current players:

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ret.     at26  at30  career     curr.  at26  at30   now
Jordan   10.8  10.9   9.21      Jokic   8.9  10.4  10.35
Robinson  8.2   8.7   7.47      LeBron  8.9   9.1   8.53
Erving  * 8.1   7.1   6.21      Paul    7.9   8.0   6.57
Kareem ** 7.5   8.4   5.74      Doncic  7.7         7.69
Magic     6.7   7.5   7.54      Kawhi   6.4   6.9   6.46
Barkley   6.3   6.6   6.13      Davis   6.3   6.0   5.91
McGrady   6.3   5.6   5.20      Durant  6.2   6.7   6.39
Duncan    5.9   6.3   5.62      Shai    5.5         5.64
Bird      5.7   7.2   6.89      Giannis 5.4   6.7   6.80
Stockton  5.7   7.0   6.84      Curry   5.1   6.4   6.45
Shaq      5.6   6.5   5.15      Harden  5.0   7.0   6.33
Garnett   5.2   6.3   5.61               
Wade      5.1   6.8   4.98               
Drexler   5.0   5.9   5.41               
Malone    2.6   4.2   5.14               

Jokic is 2nd only to Jordan thru age 30. Luka -- the bad news is he's only 7th at age 26 -- yet among those who came before, age 30 averages 14.6% better career BPM than at 26. This would put him at 8.8, behind only Jordan, Jokic, and LeBron.
Only players in this top 25 who were/are lower at 30 than at 26: Erving, McGrady, and A Davis.

Avg BPM ratios thru these ages/totals:

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sample    26/T    30/T   30/26
retired  1.013   1.130   1.146
current   .953   1.056   1.134

* - Julius Erving's BPM thru age 26 contains his last 3 ABA years and his 1st NBA year.
** - Kareem's age 26 is only one season, 1974, coming after by far his 3 best years according to WS and PER.
If we assign 9.0 BPM to his at26, the retired 26/T avg rises to 1.03; and their 30/26 ratio exactly matches the current one.
Most of these guys did not step into the league as a top-5 player as Doncic did, before developing 1st-round HOF careers.

[Crow]

Doncic outstanding with a number of stats at career best. Two exceptions are lowest 3pt fg% since 2nd season and only 8th best raw team +/- on court and on / off.

Last playoffs, 3pt fg% was modestly below playoff average and raw team +/- on court was only 10th best at -6.1. 7th best on / off.

[Mike G]

"during Harrison's four-plus-year tenure, which was highlighted by runs to the 2022 Western Conference finals and 2024 NBA Finals. The Mavs were 135-88 in regular-season games in which Doncic played during that time and 47-69 otherwise."

The difference is a .605 Win% when Luka played vs .405 when he didn't. And he missed just over 1/3 of games.
That .200 diff over the 223 Mavs games in which he appeared suggests ~45 wins in 4+ seasons that they would not have won without him.

He had 31 Win Shares in these 4+ regular seasons.
Playoffs are a different matter. He didn't miss 1/3 of games and was seemingly better.