2025-26 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

Wizards have won 6% of games so far. BRef is projecting they win 24% of the remainder.

How strong a candidate for worst record in league history?

Of their top 11 players (as of a few days ago), 2 show major improvements: George and Sarr.
Another 3 are pretty stable, and 6 have experienced precipitous declines.
This 3:1 bad:good ratio might be expected to even out somewhat over time.

Their current SRS of -14.7 suggests a win% of about .100, so they should have won 1.6 games out of 16.
And this projects to 8 expected wins on the season, if nobody else steps up.

Thru 13 games, their net player improvement from last year summed to -.38, or about .03 per game.
Add that to their remaining 66 games, and expect another 2 wins. That's if everyone returns to last year's proficiencies.
If it's only the decliners recovering (while current improvers continue), expect 6 more wins, for a total of 14.

They've had the 2nd toughest schedule in the East, and their remaining SOS is about 1 ppg easier. Another couple of W there?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

[Crow]

Wizards up 22 at half tonight.

[Mike G]

EExp take a dive -- error up .22 while avgA sheds .19 and Darko .32

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   6.34   8.41   .49      eWin   7.16   9.08   .41
vegas  6.60   8.16   .55      dtka   7.28   9.02   .42
bpmW   6.75   8.43   .49      WShr   7.45   9.42   .38
avgA   6.76   8.81   .44      Crow   7.49   9.85   .37
knar   6.82   8.50   .47      KPel   7.67   9.85   .37
Mgoo   6.92   8.87   .44      medi   7.72   9.73   .40
perW   7.00   9.83   .33      25pr   8.22   9.87   .33
EExp   7.05   8.53   .47      DQin   8.80  11.24   .28
Walr   7.10   8.55   .47               

Just 3 games last night. Blowouts all : Was>>Atl and Orl>>Phl helped most or all of us; LAL>>LAC not so much.

UPDATE Nov. 29 -- new leader, and on all fronts

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
vegas  6.66   8.24   .56      eWin   7.51   9.24   .42
DRKO   6.69   8.67   .49      dtka   7.60   9.23   .42
bpmW   7.07   8.64   .49      WShr   7.77   9.58   .39
knar   7.16   8.74   .48      KPel   7.79   9.92   .38
avgA   7.17   8.98   .45      Crow   7.82  10.08   .36
Mgoo   7.23   9.04   .45      medi   7.88   9.86   .41
EExp   7.27   8.71   .48      25pr   8.62  10.07   .33
Walr   7.32   8.69   .48      DQin   8.86  11.27   .29
perW   7.40   9.94   .35               	

UPDATE to end the month

Code: Select all

W  Atl   W  Bos   W  Brk   W  Cha   W  Chi   W  Cle   W  Det   W  Ind
46  DQ   50  DQ   33  WS   36  Wa   41  Cr   58  md   53 b-r   47  DQ
46  dt   48  WS   31  kn   34  kn   38  WS   57  DO   46  Cr   46  KP
45  md   46  DO   28  bW   32  eW   38  KP   56  dt   46  md   43  WS
45 b-r   46 b-r   28  DO   31  DO   37 b-r   55  DQ   45  eW   41  Cr
44  kn   46  Cr   27  pW   31  pW   36  kn   54  WS   44  DO   41  pW
44  KP   46  KP   27  eW   31  bW   36  md   53  Wa   44  WS   40  md
44  pW   43  kn   26  DQ   31  Cr   35  DQ   53  bW   43  bW   39  Wa
44  bW   42  dt   26  Wa   31 b-r   35  bW   52  Cr   43  Wa   36  bW
43  eW   42  bW   25  dt   30  dt   35  DO   51  kn   43  KP   36  DO
43  DO   42  md   24 b-r   29  KP   34  dt   50  KP   42  pW   36  dt
42  WS   41  Wa   22  Cr   27  WS   34  pW   50  pW   41  kn   36  eW
42  Wa   39  pW   19  md   26  md   33  Wa   50  eW   41  dt   33  kn
39  Cr   37  eW   18  KP   23  DQ   32  eW   48 b-r   35  DQ   24 b-r
^  Atl   ^  Bos   ^  Brk   ^  Cha   ^  Chi   ^  Cle   ^  Det   ^  Ind
                                             
W  Mia   W  Mil   W  NYK   W  Orl   W  Phl   W  Tor   W  Was      
53 b-r   45  KP   52  Wa   55  eW   47  md   50 b-r   25  DO      
41  eW   44  Cr   52 b-r   52  Cr   43  pW   41  eW   24  Wa      
41  WS   43  Wa   51  DO   52 b-r   42 b-r   41  KP   23  dt      
40  KP   42  eW   50  pW   51  kn   38  KP   40  DO   23  kn      
40  pW   42  dt   49  md   50  DO   38  eW   39  kn   22  eW      
40  bW   42  DO   49  dt   50  md   38  Cr   38  pW   21  WS      
38  Wa   42  md   48  kn   50  KP   37  dt   38  bW   21  pW      
38  kn   40  DQ   48  Cr   49  Wa   37  DO   38  Wa   21  Cr      
36  DQ   39  kn   48  WS   48  pW   35  bW   37  dt   19  bW      
36  dt   38  pW   47  KP   48  bW   34  Wa   35  Cr   18  md      
34  DO   38  bW   47  eW   46  dt   34  kn   32  WS   17  DQ      
33  md   38  WS   47  bW   43  WS   33  DQ   32  md   17 b-r      
29  Cr   36 b-r   43  DQ   42  DQ   32  WS   28  DQ   14  KP      
^  Mia   ^  Mil   ^  NYK   ^  Orl   ^  Phl   ^  Tor   ^  Was      
                                             
W  Dal   W  Den   W  GSW   W  Hou   W  LAC   W  LAL   W  Mem   W  Min
54  pW   55 b-r   56  KP   59 b-r   53  dt   50 b-r   48  DQ   52  md
51  eW   55  pW   51  DQ   58  DQ   51  Cr   47  pW   47  WS   49  WS
50  DQ   54  md   51  Cr   53  Cr   51  kn   47  dt   46  md   48  DQ
46  Cr   52  KP   50  md   52  DO   50  DQ   47  eW   45  KP   48  Cr
45  bW   52  DO   50  dt   51  md   50  eW   46  bW   43  Wa   48  dt
44  DO   52  DQ   49  bW   50  kn   50  KP   46  KP   43  dt   47  bW
44  KP   52  Cr   48  kn   50  bW   50  DO   44  WS   43  bW   47  kn
44  WS   51  bW   47  WS   50  Wa   49  pW   44  Wa   42  eW   46  eW
43  kn   50  WS   47  Wa   49  dt   49  bW   43  md   41  pW   46  Wa
43  md   50  Wa   46  eW   47  WS   47  WS   42  Cr   41  kn   46 b-r
42  dt   48  dt   44  DO   47  KP   46  md   41  DQ   39  Cr   45  DO
39  Wa   47  eW   43 b-r   46  eW   46  Wa   41  kn   38  DO   44  KP
27 b-r   45  kn   42  pW   46  pW   30 b-r   39  DO   36 b-r   41  pW
^  Dal   ^  Den   ^  GSW   ^  Hou   ^  LAC   ^  LAL   ^  Mem   ^  Min
                                             
W  NOP   W  OKC   W  Phx   W  Por   W  Sac   W  SAS   W  Uta      
36  kn   69  DQ   45 b-r   43  md   44  KP   52 b-r   29 b-r      
35  pW   67  Wa   39  DQ   40 b-r   42  pW   50  pW   28  Wa      
34  Wa   65  bW   37  WS   39  DQ   40  eW   45  eW   28  DO      
34  Cr   65  WS   37  kn   38  WS   40  WS   45  DO   26  kn      
33  bW   64  Cr   36  dt   38  bW   39  bW   43  kn   26  dt      
33  DQ   64  md   35  KP   37  Wa   38  kn   42  Cr   25  eW      
33  dt   64 b-r   35  bW   36  DO   37  dt   42  Wa   25  WS      
33  KP   63  kn   33  eW   36  kn   36  Cr   42  bW   24  bW      
33  md   61  dt   33  DO   36  Cr   36  Wa   40  KP   24  md      
32  eW   60  eW   32  pW   36  dt   35  DQ   40  DQ   23  pW      
32  DO   60  DO   32  Cr   36  KP   35  DO   40  dt   21  DQ      
29  WS   59  KP   32  Wa   32  eW   34  md   40  md   20  KP      
22 b-r   58  pW   27  md   30  pW   26 b-r   38  WS   19  Cr      
^  NOP   ^  OKC   ^  Phx   ^  Por   ^  Sac   ^  SAS   ^  Uta      

Last time we saw this chart, just 7 teams were inside the upper and lower bounds of our guesses.
Now there are 13 in contention, and at least one more (Den) on the edge.

[Crow]

I went very low on Heat based on terrible last playoffs and pre-season, some key player trends and trade speculation.

I will be off substantially but the final amount might not as bad as currently projected.

Spo was motivated enough to blow up the offense. I did not see that coming. Does that keep working as well? Time will tell. Herro off to a strong return but long-term questions will remain for me until there is a bigger sample.