2025-26 Rookies

[Mike G]

Projected to the full season, now at 5.5% complete, rookie eWins are projecting to a total of 57.
With no change in their current minutes per game :

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
8.1   VJ Edgecombe   Phl  161  .578   17.3   5.2   4.2   1.7   1.8   .5   1.19
6.5   Dylan Harper   SAS  104  .557   20.3   7.4   5.9   1.2   2.6   .0   1.48
6.4   Cedric Coward  Mem  122  .800   23.6   5.4   2.3   1.6   1.1   .8   1.54
4.6 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha  106  .905   14.5  10.2    .8   1.4   2.1  1.4   1.03
3.8   Kon Knueppel   Cha  118  .696   18.1   5.3   1.9    .6   2.5   .0    .76

3.7   Cooper Flagg   Dal  161  .496   12.8   6.8   2.7   1.0   2.3   .7    .68
2.9   Sion James     Cha   79  .868   15.5   3.9   2.0   1.3    .4   .9    .86
2.5   Tre Johnson    Was  107  .578   15.1   4.0   1.9    .3   1.6  1.0    .56
2.4  Jeremiah Fears  NOP  104  .546   15.1   2.4   3.1   1.6   3.1   .0    .55
2.0   Derik Queen    NOP   85  .500   10.2   8.7    .3   1.1   2.0  1.2    .56

e82    per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.9   Will Richard   GSW   71  .711   13.2   5.0   2.9   2.4   1.9   .0    .79
1.8  Walter Clayton  Uta   78  .536   10.8   6.3   4.4   1.2   3.0   .0    .55
1.2  Collin M-Boyles Tor   62  .593   14.3   3.6   1.2   1.9   1.7   .6    .58
1.1   Egor Demin     Brk   82  .625    9.9   7.2   3.1    .9   3.3   .0    .38
0.9   Javon Small    Mem   89  .516    9.4   2.7   6.4    .0   2.6   .4    .28

0.3   Hugo González  Bos   45  .375    3.3   4.0    .7   3.0    .0   .8    .17
-.1   Ace Bailey     Uta   63  .320    4.8   5.1   2.7    .0   1.1   .5   -.04
-.3   Ben Saraf      Brk   91  .308    3.3   5.0   4.9    .9   3.3   .0   -.09
-.5 Brooks Barnhizer OKC   41  .429    3.9   4.9    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.34
-.6  Tyrese Proctor  Cle   47  .313    4.0   3.0   1.8   1.3   2.8   .0   -.38

These are all the rookies with >40 minutes total.
30 eWins among West rookies to 27 in the East.

[Crow]

Kalkbrenner and S James are my biggest good draft calls so far.

[Mike G]

I see we both put Charlotte down with 31 wins in the contest. I used Pelton minutes and applied them to 4 different stats.
Hornets are using 4 rookies, all drafted in the top 34. Last night 3 of them started, and they got shellacked.
Here I'm comparing their projected Wins with their predicted wins contributed:

Code: Select all

.  Hornets   predicted based on draft number      current, projected to 82 G
. rookies   dr#  mpg   perW   WS  bpmW    eW     mpg   perW   WS  bpmW   eW*
K Knueppel    4   26   5.0   5.3   4.9   4.7      29   2.5   1.0   1.1   3.7
L McNeeley   29    7    .8    .8    .7    .7       6   1.2   2.0   1.4    .3
Sion James   33    3    .3    .3    .3    .3      21   4.0   5.3   5.0   3.1
Kalkbrenner  34   17   1.7   1.7   1.6   1.5      27   6.6   6.5   4.5   4.8
.   totals        53   7.7   8.1   7.5   7.2      84  14.3  14.8  12.0  12.0
                                    
. rookies    min    PER   WS/48   BPM  e484       min   PER   WS/48    BPM  e484
K Knueppel  2128   16.1   .123    0.6  1.08      2378   10.5   .021   -4.1   .76
L McNeeley   608   11.5   .065   -2.2   .56       525   15.8   .190    1.6   .31
Sion James   228   11.3   .063   -2.3   .54      1755   15.9   .149    2.0   .86
Kalkbrenner 1368   11.3   .063   -2.3   .53      2247   18.8   .143   -0.2  1.03
. totals    4332   13.7   .093   -0.9   .81      6904   15.0   .106   -0.8   .84

Minute totals on the left are KPel; on the right, current*82/5
* - eWins rate does not include last night's game: McNeely was great, Kalk good, James meh, Kneup terrible.
Kneuppel largely cancels overachievement by the other 3.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00CHO.html

[Mike G]

At .107 of the season, rookies project to total 53 eWins.
With at least 90 minutes:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
6.1   Cedric Coward  Mem   265  .688   18.9   7.3   3.0   1.4   1.4   .4   1.36
5.9   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   309  .544   14.3   5.6   3.8   1.4   1.8   .2    .90
5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha   246  .806   13.0   9.6    .6   1.6   2.4  3.5   1.09
4.4   Cooper Flagg   Dal   291  .500   13.6   7.3   2.5   1.3   2.4   .8    .80
4.3   Kon Knueppel   Cha   284  .597   16.4   7.1   2.2    .7   2.5   .1    .81

3.8   Dylan Harper   SAS   140  .575   19.6   6.1   4.9    .9   2.6   .0   1.30
3.2  Jeremiah Fears  NOP   202  .510   15.0   4.2   3.8   1.9   3.1   .0    .75
3.0   Will Richard   GSW   136  .745   19.9   5.0   2.7   2.1   1.2   .0   1.29
2.8   Derik Queen    NOP   149  .532   11.8   9.6   1.8   2.1   2.6   .9    .88
2.1   Sion James     Cha   227  .784   13.2   4.3   1.6    .8   1.2   .5    .49

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.5  Collin M-Boyles Tor   146  .532   11.7   5.7   1.7   1.6   2.2   .7    .55
1.5  Walter Clayton  Uta   148  .568   10.2   4.8   5.5   1.2   2.6   .2    .52
1.2   Tre Johnson    Was   233  .561   12.4   3.7   1.4    .3   2.0   .9    .26
1.1   Egor Demin     Brk   155  .489    6.9   5.5   4.2   1.9   2.6   .4    .36
.3   Nique Clifford  Sac   108  .423    4.5   5.9   2.5    .9    .6  1.0    .17

.3   Hugo González   Bos   110  .472    5.7   5.6   1.5   1.8    .9   .3    .18
.3   Javon Small     Mem    99  .515    8.7   2.5   5.8    .0   2.5   .3    .18
.3   Tyrese Proctor  Cle    92  .507    9.7   2.9   2.9   1.3   2.0   .0    .17
-.1   Ace Bailey     Uta   166  .414    7.0   5.7   2.3    .6   2.3   .2   -.03
-.1   Ben Saraf      Brk    94  .350    4.6   5.0   4.9    .8   3.5   .0   -.08

[Mike G]

1/6 of the season done, and rookies total 52 projected eWins.
Here they are listed by draft pick:

Code: Select all

#   e82    per36 rates   tm   min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1   5.3   Cooper Flagg   Dal  478  .519  14.4   7.3   2.9  1.4   2.5   .9   .91
2   2.2   Dylan Harper   SAS  140  .575  18.8   5.8   4.6   .9   2.6   .0  1.20
3   4.8   VJ Edgecombe   Phl  448  .507  12.5   5.8   3.4  1.5   2.0   .4   .75
4   4.8   Kon Knueppel   Cha  424  .603  16.6   7.2   2.6   .9   2.8   .3   .87
5   1.1   Ace Bailey     Uta  261  .507  10.6   6.0   2.2  1.1   2.4   .3   .31

6   1.0   Tre Johnson    Was  327  .536  11.5   4.0   1.4   .5   2.1   .6   .23
7   3.6  Jeremiah Fears  NOP  344  .515  15.6   4.3   3.2  2.5   3.5   .1   .81
8   1.6   Egor Demin     Brk  246  .528   9.0   5.5   4.6  1.6   2.5   .3   .50
9   1.9  Collin M-Boyles Tor  204  .597  13.5   6.1   1.6  1.4   1.8   .8   .72
10   .0  Khaman Maluach  Phx   35  .591   9.8   5.2    .7   .0   4.1  3.3   .06

#   e82    per36 rates   tm   min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
11  5.3   Cedric Coward  Mem  374  .616  15.9   7.4   3.2  1.2   1.5   .5  1.16
13  3.5   Derik Queen    NOP  290  .538  12.4   9.2   3.1  1.3   3.0  1.0   .92
14  -.2   Carter Bryant  SAS   54  .378   5.9   4.5    .0  1.1   2.2   .5  -.30
16  -.2   Yang Hansen    Por   29  .375   5.4   4.1    .0   .0   3.0  2.0  -.43
17   .2   Joan Beringer  Min   30  .800  12.1   7.6    .0  1.0   1.9   .9   .48

18  1.1  Walter Clayton  Uta  178  .557  10.2   4.5   5.2   .9   2.7   .5   .45
19  -.2   Nolan Traoré   Brk   33  .350   3.6   1.0   3.0  2.1   1.9   .0  -.38
21   .2   Will Riley     Was   64  .476   6.4   5.8   2.3  1.0    .9   .0   .23
22   .5   Drake Powell   Brk  124  .614   9.6   4.4   2.9  1.7   2.3   .3   .33
23   .9   Asa Newell     Atl   80  .644  16.8   6.3    .3  1.4   1.5  1.1   .89

#   e82    per36 rates   tm   min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
24   .1  Nique Clifford  Sac  192  .420   5.0   5.3   2.9   .7   1.2   .7   .04
25  -.2  Jase Richardson Orl   30  .250   1.5   1.0   5.0   .0   2.9   .0  -.68
26  -.1   Ben Saraf      Brk   97  .371   5.0   5.1   5.1   .8   3.3   .0  -.05
27   .1   Danny Wolf     Brk    6  .500   7.3  10.1   7.6   .0    .0   .0  1.17
28   .3   Hugo González  Bos  136  .524   6.4   5.3   1.4  2.2   1.4   .5   .20

29   .1   Liam McNeeley  Cha  112  .507   7.7   5.0   2.5   .6   1.4   .3   .08
30   .6  YK Niederhauser LAC   22  .792  29.1   8.1   2.2   .0   1.3  1.3  2.12
31   .0  Rasheer Fleming Phx   36  .400   6.0   5.0   1.4   .7    .8   .8   .07
32   .5   Noah Penda     Orl   47  .654  10.9   8.3   3.3   .7   1.9  1.3   .81
33  1.1   Sion James     Cha  349  .650   9.9   4.3   1.6  1.1   1.2   .4   .23

#   e82    per36 rates   tm   min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
34  5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha  318  .819  14.9  10.3    .5  1.5   2.3  3.2  1.22
35   .1   Johni Broome   Phl    6  .400  12.5   9.7   3.9   .0    .0   .0  1.16
36   .1   Adou Thiero    LAL    5  1.00  34.0   6.2    .0   .0    .0   .0  2.21
37   .2   Chaz Lanier    Det   98  .492   7.7   3.0   2.4   .6    .3   .0   .12
40  -.3   Micah Peavy    NOP   94  .292   2.0   6.3   1.5   .3    .6   .3  -.25

41   .1   Koby Brea      Phx    4  .667  30.9   0.0   6.0   .0    .0   .0  2.15
42   .3  Maxime Raynaud  Sac   74  .473   7.4   9.3   1.2   .8   2.5   .8   .28
43   .0   Jamir Watkins  Was   21  .750   7.6   7.6    .0   .0   1.4  1.4   .13
44  -.1 Brooks Barnhizer OKC   96  .467   3.5   7.9    .9   .6    .3   .6  -.05
46   .1  Amari Williams  Bos    7  .500   6.9   8.4   3.4  4.2    .0   .0  1.11

#   e82    per36 rates   tm   min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk  e484
48   .2   Javon Small    Mem   99  .515   8.6   2.4   5.7   .0   2.5   .3   .13
49   .1  Tyrese Proctor  Cle  142  .458   9.2   2.7   2.5   .9   1.3   .0   .08
50   .1   Kobe Sanders   LAC   69  .510   8.9   4.2   2.6  1.2   2.3   .0   .08
51   .0  Mohamed Diawara NYK   15  .700  13.1   1.8   1.5   .0   1.9   .0   .12
54  -.2   Taelon Peter   Ind   87  .392   4.2   4.7   3.4   .9   2.8   .7  -.16
56  2.9   Will Richard   GSW  237  .697  18.0   4.6   2.2  1.9   1.4   .1  1.08

[Mike G]

22% of the season done, still adding to 52 expected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
5.5   Kon Knueppel   Cha   600  .626   17.9   6.8   2.5    .9   2.7   .2   .98
5.3   Cooper Flagg   Dal   604  .520   15.2   6.8   3.0   1.5   2.4   .7   .98
4.9   Cedric Coward  Mem   510  .595   15.7   7.6   3.1   1.0   1.7   .5  1.09
4.8   Derik Queen    NOP   451  .542   14.2   9.4   4.0   1.5   3.4  1.2  1.18
4.3 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha   410  .797   13.7  10.7    .4   1.3   2.1  2.6  1.13

3.9   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   560  .498   12.0   6.1   3.4   1.3   1.9   .5   .70
3.7  Jeremiah Fears  NOP   508  .530   16.1   4.6   2.9   2.0   3.2   .2   .81
2.7   Will Richard   GSW   330  .674   16.4   5.1   1.9   1.8   1.3   .1   .96
1.8   Dylan Harper   SAS   157  .555   17.6   5.7   4.3   1.2   2.3   .0  1.15
1.7   Egor Dёmin     Brk   355  .504    9.0   5.7   4.5   1.4   2.6   .3   .49

e82    per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.7   Ace Bailey     Uta   366  .544   12.2   5.6   2.2   1.3   2.2   .3   .46
1.2  Collin M-Boyles Tor   256  .586   12.0   5.6   1.6   1.1   1.7   .7   .51
1.0   Tre Johnson    Was   364  .562   12.4   3.9   1.4    .6   2.3   .7   .27
.8   Moussa Cisse    Dal   157  .563    8.0  10.2    .5    .8   2.6  3.5   .57
.7   Drake Powell    Brk   208  .618   10.4   3.6   2.8   1.7   2.0   .2   .32

.6   Caleb Love      Por   197  .410    8.7   5.6   3.2    .7   1.6   .0   .35
.5   Walter Clayton  Uta   207  .515    8.1   4.1   5.0    .9   2.7   .6   .23
.3   Tyrese Proctor  Cle   191  .458    9.5   3.3   2.8    .8   1.1   .0   .20
.3   Maxime Raynaud  Sac   145  .495    7.8   7.7   1.0    .8   1.3   .6   .26
.3   Sion James      Cha   477  .573    7.4   4.5   1.7   1.2   1.3   .5   .06

e82   per36 rates     tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.2   Micah Peavy     NOP   217  .447    6.3   5.5   1.8   1.0    .7   .3   .13
.2   Hugo González   Bos   157  .493    5.4   5.0   1.6   2.2   1.2   .4   .14
.0   Nique Clifford  Sac   250  .448    5.1   5.4   2.7    .8   1.3   .5   .02
-.1  Liam McNeeley   Cha   161  .495    6.6   5.4   1.8    .4   1.3   .2  -.07
-.2  Kobe Sanders    LAC   200  .556    9.8   2.7   1.6    .9   2.4   .3  -.08

These are all with >140 minutes.

Noticing quite a few rookies have been steadily getting stronger or weaker in these updates. Some have just missed time, but I think it's time for the overall projection to get growing.
Dividing their 16-to-19-game 'careers' in half (give or take a game), here are some steady climbers:

Code: Select all

Kon Knueppel    Cha                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
9   282   .602   10.5   11.6   13.4   20.4   112   120   -2.3    .81
9   316   .658    9.1   15.5   14.5   22.2   120   124    1.9   1.13
                              
Cooper Flagg    Dal                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
9   292   .506   10.5   13.0   13.2   21.0    96   110   -3.2    .80
9   314   .544    9.3   17.1   12.0   21.8   108   111   -0.3   1.15
                              
Derik Queen     NOP                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
10  200   .528   15.1   14.5   17.9   22.7   104   114   -3.0    .88
9   252   .569   14.4   29.5   16.8   24.2   114   120    1.9   1.42
                              
Jeremiah Fears  NOP                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
10  263   .511    5.8   21.7   15.0   25.7    98   123   -4.5    .75
9   243   .563    7.5   13.8   13.2   25.5   108   121   -2.2    .87
                              
Egor Dёmin      Brk                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
8   154   .492    9.0   23.5   20.8   15.4    96   122   -3.1    .36
8   199   .516    8.6   25.0   15.8   19.8   101   122   -3.1    .59
                              
Ace Bailey      Uta                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
8   141   .383    9.1   12.1   14.4   18.2    88   121  -10.0   -.03
9   225   .636    8.3   12.7   12.3   20.2   119   124    0.4    .77

The eWins/484 min 1st-half numbers are from the Nov. 7 update.

Another handful have struggled of late:

Code: Select all

Cedric Coward   Mem                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
10  264   .701   11.9   17.3    9.3   18.5   136   115    5.0   1.36
9   247   .509   11.9   15.5   11.5   20.6   105   118   -2.3    .80
                              
VJ Edgecombe    Phl                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
7   272   .591    8.4   18.2   11.0   19.5   122   117    0.9    .90
8   289   .419    9.6   14.3   11.2   19.6    97   118   -5.7    .51
                              
Tre Johnson     Was                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
7   180   .537    6.7    9.0   10.1   20.2   102   122   -3.7    .26
8   182   .596    5.9    7.4   17.1   20.2    97   133   -5.9    .28
                              
Walter Clayton  Uta                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
7   121   .555    9.1   27.8   15.0   15.8   122   118   -0.9    .52
6    86   .472    4.3   32.7   28.6   18.0    93   127   -6.4   -.18
                              
Sion James      Cha                           
G   min    TS%   TRb%   Ast%    TO%    Usg   ORt   DRt    BPM   e484
9   227   .796    6.8    7.6   13.7   10.5   140   121    0.3    .49
9   250   .382    6.9    7.8   14.3   10.7    85   123   -7.2   -.33

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2026/