2025-26 team win projection contest

[Crow]

Fwiw, the composite projection from Nov. 14 I assembled from other entries and 3 projections from mid-Nov. (page 5 of thread) has an average variance from current BRef projection of 4.91 wins.

My personal revised projection from then (page 6) has a variance of only 4.39.

Both closer than any pre-season entry.

A couple weeks of new season data and reflecting on it was quite helpful. Not a surprise, but wanted to see how much it helped.


Might check things again at the end.

[Mike G]

DARKO may be onto some secret sauce; and while they weren't in the contest last year, wasn't it determined they would have won it had they entered?
Winning 2 years in a row would be noteworthy, as for most entries it seems very random -- at least over these last 2 seasons.

Here are everyone's correlations between their predictions and DARKO's:

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corr.  darko  disco
.948   bmgm   .052
.942   Walr   .058
.939   Ebet   .061
.938   Crow   .062
.937   knar   .063
.933   dtka   .067
.929   bpmW   .071
.929   Mgoo   .071
.921   EExp   .079
.901   medi   .099
.891   eWin   .109
.864   WShr   .136
.862   perW   .138
.850   DQin   .150
.849   KPel   .151

The correlations all look at least "pretty high", so I added a dis-correlation column, (1-corr.) to accentuate the dissing between them.
I don't know if DARKO is influenced by any of these higher correlators, or vise versa. I kinda suspect Walrus is in cahoots.

[Crow]

Top 5 correlation with Darko for me is a positive.

I know I have some outliers. They are often my downfall. Can be rewarded but more often hurt. Half the gap for me from lead is due to my massive bet against the Heat. They were so terrible in playoffs and pre-season. However neither of those is the regular season. They are 6W-10L recently but the big early success buffers that so far. 1W-2L in last 3.

Probably should have been more restrained. Hard beat the best metrics at regression though. But also can beat myself. Got to be different to win, but it has to be right amount, right places to win against a strong field.

[Mike G]

The field averages .13 bigger error overnight and is overall worst since Nov. 21.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   6.59   8.20   .48      Mgoo   7.34   8.99   .40
knar   6.84   8.34   .46      dtka   7.42   8.97   .40
bmgm   6.91   8.47   .50      eWin   7.52   9.16   .37
bpmW   6.93   8.54   .45      25pr   7.54   9.66   .32
Walr   6.94   8.54   .45      perW   7.55   9.84   .30
Ebet   7.08   8.52   .50      Crow   7.86   9.65   .37
EExp   7.20   8.66   .43      medi   8.19   9.76   .38
WShr   7.26   9.16   .38      KPel   8.71  10.39   .29
avgA   7.29   8.80   .42      DQin   9.06  11.05   .28

KPel with personal worst for the 4th day in a row, and the top-bottom spread is largest since mid-Nov.

How are we doing with our high and low guesses?

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W-L   who     Highest            Lowest
3-0   Walr   Uta                Dal LAC
3-1   DRKO   Was Uta            LAL Mem
3-1   Ebet   NYK LAL            Chi Uta
2-1   bmgm   Det NYK             Uta   
3-2   WShr   Brk             Mil Phl NOP SAS
3-2   eWin   Mia Orl Tor        Bos Cle
3-2   medi   Cle Phl Min Por     Phx
2-2   knar   Cha NOP            Ind Den
4-4-1 perW   Dal Den SAS   
.                   Cle GSW Hou Min OKC Por
0-0   bpmW
0-0   Mgoo             
2-3   Crow   Chi Det           Atl Mia Uta
0-1   dtka   LAC
4-6-1 DQin  Bos Ind Hou Mem OKC Phx        
.                        Cha Det NYK Orl Tor
1-4   KPel   Mil Tor GSW        Brk Was

Ties are included, defined as within half a win predicted.
OKC currently projects midway between the high and low guesses, so neither a W nor a L for either.
I think all other teams sit clearly closer to high or low end right now.

UPDATE Jan. 10 -- DARKO had their biggest lead of the season yesterday.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   6.53   8.25   .47      Mgoo   7.17   9.02   .40
bpmW   6.77   8.53   .45      dtka   7.36   8.89   .40
knar   6.83   8.31   .46      25pr   7.39   9.58   .33
Walr   6.85   8.54   .44      eWin   7.42   9.19   .37
bmgm   6.94   8.44   .51      perW   7.59   9.91   .29
WShr   7.04   9.11   .38      Crow   7.78   9.63   .37
avgA   7.09   8.77   .42      medi   7.92   9.64   .39
EExp   7.09   8.61   .43      KPel   8.60  10.28   .30
Ebet   7.12   8.53   .50      DQin   8.90  10.93   .29

[Crow]

Heat lose 3rd in last 4 games to Pacers by 24 pts. Next 5 opponents are playoff ranked.

Adebayo loses his 25 minutes by 23, just -1 when he was off.

Worst 3pt shooting of their season at 13%.


And now another loss.

Scoring fell from 125 in October to 110 in January so far. Opponent scoring went from 114 to 119. 20 pt change in margin. Worth noticing to me.

[Crow]

In as continued discussion of my to date biggest miss in the projection contest and whether that miss sees significant reduction.

[Mike G]

Smallest errors of the season for BPM, WS, knarsu, dtkavana, betmgm, and 25pyth-regr.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2          avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   6.06   7.65   .52      EExp   6.75   8.00   .48
bpmW   6.19   7.78   .51      dtka   6.91   8.18   .46
Walr   6.30   7.84   .50      eWin   6.96   8.54   .42
knar   6.35   7.66   .52      perW   7.09   9.25   .34
bmgm   6.45   7.77   .56      25pr   7.13   8.97   .37
avgA   6.51   8.05   .48      Crow   7.23   8.93   .42
WShr   6.58   8.44   .44      medi   7.34   9.00   .44
Mgoo   6.66   8.27   .46      KPel   7.97   9.51   .36
Ebet   6.70   7.85   .55      DQin   8.32  10.35   .33

Smallest top-bottom spread since before xmas; avgA with biggest lead of the month over EExp.

UPDATE Jan. 17 -- after 4 weeks, a new leader.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2         .avg err   rmse   r^2
bpmW   6.08   7.62   .53      EExp   6.81   7.99   .49
DRKO   6.09   7.49   .54      dtka   6.88   8.11   .48
Walr   6.26   7.75   .51      eWin   6.93   8.42   .44
knar   6.26   7.52   .54      25pr   6.98   8.87   .39
avgA   6.45   7.91   .50      Crow   7.12   8.73   .44
bmgm   6.47   7.70   .57      perW   7.17   9.15   .36
WShr   6.54   8.28   .46      medi   7.27   8.89   .46
Mgoo   6.58   8.13   .48      KPel   7.94   9.38   .38
Ebet   6.72   7.79   .56      DQin   8.18  10.16   .35

Best numbers yet for BPM, knarsu, WS, dtka, Crow, medi, avgA, and 25pr

[Crow]

Your modifications on Mgoo elevate from tier 3 by eWin to tier 2.

Lots of tier 2 and tier 3 with small differences within tier and modest between.

About 50% of season to go. Movements will get slower but they are still coming

[Mike G]

Another season best for Crow and the 4th consecutive days of best for knar and 25pr .

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2         .avg err   rmse   r^2
bpmW   6.16   7.78   .52      25pr   6.90   8.96   .38
DRKO   6.21   7.65   .53      EExp   6.96   8.19   .47
knar   6.26   7.67   .53      dtka   6.98   8.29   .46
Walr   6.47   7.98   .49      eWin   7.00   8.56   .43
avgA   6.51   8.06   .49      Crow   7.07   8.86   .43
bmgm   6.58   7.89   .55      medi   7.29   9.04   .44
WShr   6.60   8.41   .45      perW   7.34   9.30   .35
Mgoo   6.65   8.28   .47      KPel   8.01   9.48   .37
Ebet   6.83   8.00   .54      DQin   8.23  10.26   .34

Our avgA is now leading EExp by .44, and the top-bottom is smallest since Dec. 11.

Noticing the West>East projections have gotten to what may be a season high avg of 42.2-39.8 -- still not as extreme as our consensus 43-39 imbalance, but likely producing the recent drop in most of our errors.
A full week of West outplaying the East:

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W > E      E > W
1-17
Phx-NYK   Mia-OKC
GSW-Cha
Den-Was

1-16
Sac-Was   Ind-NOP
LAC-Tor

1-15
GSW-NYK   Det-Phx
Mem-Orl   Cha-LAL
Por-Atl   Orl-Mem
SAS-Mil

1-14
LAC-Was   Chi-Uta
NOP-Brk
Sac-NYK

1-13
Hou-Chi   Mia-Phx
LAL-Atl
Min-Mil

1-12
Uta-Cle
Dal-Brk
LAC-Cha

1-11
Den-Mil   Atl-GSW
Mem-Brk   Orl-NOP 
OKC-Mia   NYK-Por  
Phx-Was

1-10
SAS-Bos   Chi-Dal
LAC-Det   Cle-Min
.         Cha-Uta

That's a stretch of W 18 - 7 E
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... &year=2026