2026 Playoff Summaries

[Mike G]

2-game leaders. xyz is a mix of eWins, VORP, and WS. Other available stats are shown.

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xyz     Player        Pos   tm   min   PER   WS   WS/48   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.309   Shai G-A       PG   OKC   67   32.8   .56   .403   9.5   .20   2.57   .36
.303  Cade Cunningham PG   Det   78   24.3   .32   .194   8.1   .20   2.74   .44
.299 Donovan Mitchell SG   Cle   68   31.4   .43   .302   8.5   .18   2.88   .41
.295   Jayson Tatum   PF   Bos   71   25.1   .41   .278   8.3   .19   2.64   .39
.290   Jaylen Brown   SF   Bos   68   27.4   .36   .252   9.9   .21   2.58   .36

.272   James Harden   PG   Cle   68   27.4   .34   .241   9.3   .20   2.37   .34
.271   Luke Kennard   SG    LA   80   24.0   .42   .254   6.3   .17   2.05   .34
.269  Jalen Williams  SG   OKC   52   33.8   .44   .408  13.8   .21   2.47   .27
.268   LeBron James   SF    LA   78   24.1   .43   .263   5.2   .15   2.40   .39
.256   Evan Mobley    PF   Cle   66   26.7   .42   .305   7.1   .16   2.41   .33

xyz     Player        Pos   tm   min   PER   WS   WS/48   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.252  Robert Williams  C   Por   40   36.2   .35   .418  20.0   .22   2.90   .24
.251   Nikola Jokić    C   Den   80   20.6   .22   .132   6.8   .18   2.22   .37
.241   Marcus Smart   SG    LA   69   23.4   .29   .202   8.2   .18   2.03   .29
.231   Karl-A Towns    C    NY   66   24.4   .32   .233   7.2   .16   2.11   .29
.220   Josh Hart      SF    NY   72   18.9   .27   .178   6.2   .15   1.91   .29

.209  Scoot Henderson PG   Por   65   23.6   .26   .189   7.6   .16   1.80   .24
.198   VJ Edgecombe   SG   Phl   69   23.4   .21   .143   8.2   .18   1.48   .21
.192   Luke Kornet     C   SAS   42   29.9   .31   .358  11.2   .14   2.32   .20
.189   Jalen Brunson  PG    NY   72   20.8   .20   .135   4.1   .11   2.01   .30
.188   Jamal Murray   PG   Den   82   19.5   .20   .116   3.4   .12   1.73   .30

xyz     Player        Pos   tm   min   PER   WS   WS/48   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.186  Vi. Wembanyama   C   SAS   45   27.6   .19   .202   8.4   .12   3.03   .28
.183  Alperen Şengün   C   Hou   71   21.2   .16   .109   5.4   .14   1.76   .26
.183   OG Anunoby     PF    NY   76   17.0   .31   .198   4.6   .13   1.23   .19
.174   Chet Holmgren  PF   OKC   57   24.9   .31   .258   5.4   .11   1.75   .21
.172  Collin M-Boyles PF   Tor   46   28.8   .23   .239   9.6   .14   1.96   .19

.172   CJ McCollum    PG   Atl   69   23.7   .11   .075   6.0   .14   1.82   .26
.166  Paolo Banchero  PF   Orl   71   17.3   .14   .095   4.4   .12   1.70   .25
.161  Do. DiVincenzo  SG   Min   62   17.4   .20   .154   7.4   .15   1.21   .16
.159  Wendell Carter   C   Orl   61   17.9   .29   .227   5.9   .12   1.19   .15
.159   Tyrese Maxey   PG   Phl   76   18.9   .12   .074   4.3   .12   1.49   .24

xyz     Player        Pos   tm   min   PER   WS   WS/48   BPM  VORP   e480  eWin
.159  Anthony Edwards SG   Min   78   18.2   .10   .062   3.6   .11   1.71   .28
.159   Royce O'Neale  SF   Phx   57   20.4   .22   .184   9.9   .17   1.04   .12
.157  Onyeka Okongwu   C   Atl   67   19.0   .25   .177   4.3   .11   1.28   .18
.156   Ajay Mitchell  SG   OKC   51   22.5   .31   .288   6.9   .12   1.39   .15
.149   RJ Barrett     SF   Tor   68   21.7   .18   .126   3.3   .09   1.52   .22

I think at least one player from each team is included here.

[Mike G]

Thru the first 22 playoff games, 20 best individual performances.
GameScore is multiplied by 100/(Opp Pts) to derive GSc2.
"game" (for lack of another term) = (GSc2 + 2*(BPM+5.25)*min/48)/3 -- the BPM component counts twice as much as adjusted GmSc, for now.

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game    Player         tm   opp   G   GSc2   BPM   min   TS%   Pt  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO
24.1  Scottie Barnes  Tor   Cle   3   32.5   22.1   35   .77   33   5  11   1   1   1
22.2   Marcus Smart   LAL   Hou   2   27.8   21.0   36   .82   25   2   7   5   1   3
21.2   Marcus Smart   LAL   Hou   3   25.1   18.2   39   .76   21   4  10   5   2   3
20.4   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   Bos   2   27.6   17.5   35   .75   30  10   2   2   0   2
20.3   OG Anunoby     NYK   Atl   3   26.0   17.6   37   .76   29   9   1   1   3   0

19.2  Alperen Sengun  Hou   LAL   3   27.3   10.3   47   .58   33  16   6   3   1   3
19.2   Jrue Holiday   Por   SAS   3   23.1   15.2   41   .81   29   6   5   4   0   2
19.2   Amen Thompson  Hou   LAL   3   26.4   10.2   48   .66   26  11   4   3   3   1
19.0   Dylan Harper   SAS   Por   3   25.2   20.3   30   .92   27  10   3   1   1   1
18.4   RJ Barrett     Tor   Cle   3   26.3   12.4   39   .75   33   5   5   2   1   2

game    Player         tm   opp   G   GSc2   BPM   min   TS%   Pt  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO
18.0   Shai G-A       OKC   Phx   2   28.5   10.7   38   .64   37   5   9   1   0   3
17.9   Jason Tatum    Bos   Phl   1   28.0   13.7   32   .64   25  11   7   2   0   1
17.5  Jalen Williams  OKC   Phx   1   26.8   16.1   29   .69   22   7   6   1   1   1
17.5   Jaylen Brown   Bos   Phl   2   23.1   13.3   38   .62   36   7   4   1   1   3
16.8  Wendell Carter  Orl   Det   1   19.8   14.8   37   .94   17   7   5   2   1   0

16.6   CJ McCollum    Atl   NYK   2   24.2   12.2   35   .64   32   3   6   2   1   2
16.6   James Harden   Cle   Tor   2   23.6   12.7   35   .76   28   5   4   5   1   5
16.4   Karl-A Towns   NYK   Atl   3   22.5   13.5   34   .72   21  17   4   2   2   3
16.3   Deni Avdija    Por   SAS   1   22.6   10.7   40   .64   30  10   5   1   1   2
16.3  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS   Por   1   24.4   12.6   33   .75   35   5   1   0   2   4

[Mike G]

OKC 4 - 0 Phx
Game-by-game eWins, approximately.

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eWins    by game :    tm     1     2     3     4
.85   Shai G-A       OKC   .14   .22   .35   .14
.47   Chet Holmgren  OKC   .10   .11   .07   .19
.36  Is. Hartenstein OKC   .07   .08   .05   .16
.33   Dillon Brooks  Phx   .05   .08   .12   .08
.29  Jalen Williams  OKC   .15   .12   .03   .00
.28   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   .06   .09   .04   .09
.26   Jalen Green    Phx   .05   .02   .12   .07
.19   Devin Booker   Phx   .06   .07   .06   .00
.19 Collin Gillespie Phx   .02   .04   .07   .06
.14   Alex Caruso    OKC         .05   .05   .04
.14   Oso Ighodaro   Phx   .02   .02   .04   .06
.13   Royce O'Neale  Phx   .02   .10  -.03   .04
.12   Cason Wallace  OKC   .04   .03   .00   .05
.10  Jaylin Williams OKC        (.06)  .03   .01
.06   Luguentz Dort  OKC   .04   .02   .05  -.05
.06   Grayson Allen  Phx               .00   .06
.03   Jared McCain   OKC        (.04) -.01
.03   Isaiah Joe     OKC   .04   .01  -.02   .00
.02   Aaron Wiggins  OKC         .02   .00
-.03  Khaman Maluach Phx       (-.03) -.01   .01
-.05  Ryan Dunn      Phx  -.01  -.02  -.01  -.01

(.xx) = may include some earlier minutes.

Is one of these formats better than the other?

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eWin   Spurs     1    2    3    4    5     eWin  Blazers    1    2    3    4    5
.75   Wemby    .23  .05 -.02  .28  .21     .45   Avdija   .19  .04  .07  .11  .04
.63   Fox      .15  .06  .05  .23  .14     .38  Williams  .09  .15  .06  .01  .07
.51   Castle   .11  .10  .19  .11  .00     .34   Holiday  .04  .07  .19  .06 -.02
.34   Kornet   .10  .10  .10 -.01  .05     .22   Clingan  .01  .07  .06  .03  .05
.30   Vassell  .06  .15  .02  .06  .01     .12 Henderson  .06  .18  .00 -.10 -.02
.30 Champagnie .06  .03  .03  .02  .16     .11   Sharpe   .01  .03  .01  .05  .01
.29   Harper  -.01 -.02  .26 -.05  .11     .08   Grant   -.03 -.05  .03  .06  .07
.10   Johnson  .00  .01  .02  .05  .02     .03  Thybulle  .00 -.02  .01  .01  .03
.10   Bryant       (.01) .04  .04  .01     .01   Camar   -.02  .09 -.10  .02  .02
-.05  Barnes  -.01 -.02 -.01  .00 -.01         

[Mike G]

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. Hou      1    2    3    4    5    6      . LAL    1    2    3    4    5    6
Şengün   .08  .18  .22  .17  .13  .05      LeBron .20  .19  .18 -.01  .17  .24
Thompson .09  .08  .18  .18  .09  .08      Smart  .06  .23  .23  .02  .00  .12
Eason    .12  .02 -.02  .20  .11  .05      Ayton  .15  .00 -.03  .12  .16  .10
Smith    .07  .05  .07  .13  .15  .00      Rui    .04  .04  .09  .05  .01  .16
Sheppard .03  .00  .03  .11  .07 -.02     Kennard .18  .16  .02 -.06 -.02  .01
Durant        .07                          Reaves                     .09  .09
Okogie   .01 -.01 -.01  .04  .03  .00      Hayes  .00  .04  .06 -.03 -.02  .05
Tate     .02 -.02  .00  .01  .00  .02      V'bilt .00  .00  .02  .04  .00  .01
Capela  -.01  .01  .01  .00  .00  .01     LaRavia .03 -.04 -.02  .00  .01  .03
F-Smith                -.02  .01 -.03      Bronny              (-.01) .00  .02
Holiday -.03  .00 -.03  .00 -.01  .01                        

[Mike G]

Code: Select all

. Bos     1    2    3    4    5    6    7    . Phl     1    2    3    4    5    6    7
Tatum   .20  .19  .17  .28  .18  .13  .00    Maxey   .06  .18  .15  .05  .20  .24  .28
Brown   .14  .22  .15  .11  .07  .01  .21    Embiid                 .15  .18  .18  .28
Queta   .08  .03  .06  .10  .06  .04  .12    George  .05  .10  .08  .06  .11  .12  .01
Pritc'd .06  .00  .05  .20  .08  .04  .02  Edgecombe .04  .17  .04 -.06  .02  .09  .10
White   .06 -.02  .05  .02 -.06  .00  .13    Grimes  .01  .00  .02  .06  .08 -.01  .00
Hauser  .08  .03  .02  .01  .01  .00  .01   Drummond .01  .05  .02 -.01  .05  .03 -.01
Garza   .03  .02  .02  .04  .03  .05 -.05    Oubre   .03  .01  .08 -.06 -.03  .05 -.01
Sch'man .02  .02  .05  .03 -.01  .02 -.02    Barlow  .01 -.02  .00 -.01  .01  .00 -.01
Vučević .02  .03  .05  .00  .03  .00 -.02    Bona    .0  -.04  .04 -.02 -.01 -.01  .00
Harper                           .06  .00    Edwards .03  .01 -.04 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01
Walsh   .02  .00 -.01  .01  .02  .02 -.02                  
total   .74  .52  .61  .85  .38  .34  .37    total   .26  .48  .39  .15  .62  .66  .63

[Mike G]

Best individual games of the first round:

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xyz     Player         tm  G   GmSc   BPM   min  TS%   Pt  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO
28.8   Ayo Dosumnu    Min  4   37.1   22.1   42  .97   43   4   1   0   1   1
24.8   Shai G-A       OKC  3   38.6   19.5   38  .83   42   4   8   1   0   3
24.0  Scottie Barnes  Tor  3   33.8   22.1   35  .77   33   5  11   1   1   1
23.6   OG Anunoby     NYK  6   31.0   26.6   27  .90   29   7   2   4   1   0
22.2   Marcus Smart   LAL  2   26.1   21.0   36  .82   25   2   7   5   1   3

21.2   Tobias Harris  Det  7   28.6   16.8   36  .78   30   9   2   3   1   1
21.1   Marcus Smart   LAL  3   27.1   18.2   39  .76   21   4  10   5   2   3
20.7   Jalen Brunson  NYK  5   32.4   14.7   35  .74   39   3   8   0   0   1
20.5  Scottie Barnes  Tor  6   28.3   12.7   48  .55   25   7  14   3   3   3
20.4  Cade Cunningham Det  5   33.8   11.5   44  .77   45   4   5   1   0   6

xyz.    Player         tm  G   GmSc   BPM   min  TS%   Pt  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO
20.3   VJ Edgecombe   Phl  2   26.8   17.5   35  .75   30  10   2   2   0   2
20.3 Payton Pritchard Bos  4   28.2   16.7   35  .73   32   4   5   1   0   0
20.2   OG Anunoby     NYK  3   28.3   17.6   37  .76   29   9   1   1   3   0
20.2  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS  4   28.5   15.9   34  .66   27  12   3   4   7   4
19.3   Nikola Jokic   Den  5   30.9   14.3   38  .60   27  12  16   0   2   3

19.2  Alperen Sengun  Hou  3   30.6   10.3   47  .58   33  16   6   3   1   3
19.2   Jrue Holiday   Por  3   27.7   15.2   41  .81   29   6   5   4   0   2
19.2   Amen Thompson  Hou  3   29.6   10.2   48  .66   26  11   4   3   3   1
19.0   De'Aaron Fox   SAS  4   25.8   12.9   39  .75   28   6   7   1   2   3
18.9   Dylan Harper   SAS  3   27.2   20.3   30  .92   27  10   3   1   1   1

xyz.    Player         tm  G   GmSc   BPM   min  TS%   Pt  Rb  As  St  Bk  TO
18.7  Cade Cunningham Det  7   27.1   11.4   40  .71   32   1  12   0   2   4
18.4   Tyrese Maxey   Phl  7   27.4    9.6   45  .73   30  11   7   0   0   1
18.4   Jason Tatum    Bos  4   25.6   14.4   35  .75   30   7  11   0   0   5
18.4   RJ Barrett     Tor  3   27.4   12.4   39  .75   33   5   5   2   1   2
18.2  Paolo Banchero  Orl  5   30.9   11.3   41  .62   45   9   7   2   0   6

18.2   Joel Embiid    Phl  7   27.3   11.6   39  .55   34  12   6   0   1   1
18.1  Paolo Banchero  Orl  4   25.2   13.9   38  .54   25  12   9   3   2   3
17.9   Shai G-A       OKC  2   30.5   10.7   38  .64   37   5   9   1   0   3
17.8   Jason Tatum    Bos  1   25.5   13.7   32  .64   25  11   7   2   0   1
17.6  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS  5   22.4   15.7   34  .88   17  14   3   0   6   1
17.6  Jaden McDaniels Min  6   27.1    8.2   45  .58   32  10   3   2   1   0

xyz = (2/3)*(BPM+5.25)*min/48 + (1/3)GmSc*100/OppPts

[Mike G]

First round team stats, and correlations to player minutes:

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win    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     lose   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
OKC   20.2   .210   3.69   1.38      Phx   13.5  -.008  -0.57   .62
corr   .34    .35    .13    .38      corr   .54    .28    .34   .70
                              
SAS   17.1   .173   3.07   1.32      Por   12.8   .029   0.06   .68
corr   .07    .02    .02    .08      corr   .80    .55    .76   .74
                              
win    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     lose    PER   WS/48   BPM  e480
NYK   18.2   .203   3.31   1.39      Atl   12.6  -.006  -0.97   .61
corr   .47    .45    .59    .65      corr   .68    .37    .60   .69
                              
Min   15.1   .127   1.97   1.13      Den   13.9   .070   0.81   .87
corr  -.11   -.11   -.32   -.21      corr   .65    .18    .52   .68
                              
win    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     lose   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
LAL   14.7   .120   0.47   1.08      Hou   14.2   .089  -0.15   .92
corr   .63    .44    .65    .63      corr   .75    .68    .78   .79
                              
Phl   14.8   .083   1.24    .91      Bos   15.5   .121   1.87  1.09
corr   .29    .18    .34    .31      corr   .30   -.06    .27   .38
                              
win    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     lose   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Det   14.7   .133   2.18   1.15      Orl   13.0   .073   0.92   .85
corr   .85    .76    .71    .89      corr   .26    .12    .31   .38
                              
Cle   15.6   .123   1.36   1.05      Tor   15.2   .085   1.01   .95
corr   .69    .27    .53    .78      corr   .49    .31    .54   .56

Most of the very low stat:minutes correlations are due to a team's best player(s) missing some games.

[Mike G]

Leaders thru 2 games of the 2nd round. Teams have played 6-9 games.

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xyzW    player        tm   min    PER  WS/48  BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.56   Karl-A Towns  NYK   239   30.8  .387  14.0   3.04    1.41  1.89  1.51  1.51
1.43 Cade Cunningham Det   367   21.4  .169   6.0   2.15    1.33  1.27  1.35  1.64
1.42   OG Anunoby    NYK   282   26.3  .338  10.0   2.03    1.36  1.95  1.41  1.20
1.12  Scottie Barnes Tor   273   23.3  .178   8.1   1.97    1.11   .99  1.19  1.12
1.10  Tobias Harris  Det   323   19.5  .187   4.0   1.80    1.02  1.24   .97  1.21

1.10   Tyrese Maxey  Phl   360   20.2  .103   4.1   1.63    1.20   .76  1.09  1.22
1.09   Evan Mobley   Cle   304   20.7  .187   5.7   1.72    1.05  1.16  1.08  1.09
1.08  Jalen Brunson  NYK   281   23.4  .230   3.6   2.03    1.15  1.32   .81  1.19
1.06   Shai G-A      OKC   206   30.2  .325   8.2   2.31    1.18  1.37   .91   .99
1.04   Jayson Tatum  Bos   218   24.4  .216   8.9   2.54     .95   .96  1.01  1.15

xyzW    player        tm   min    PER  WS/48  BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
1.03   LeBron James  LAL   307   20.0  .125   4.2   1.97    1.01   .78   .94  1.26
1.00  Paolo Banchero Orl   273   20.4  .113   6.5   2.08     .92   .63  1.05  1.18
.99   Nikola Jokić   Den   237   22.9  .136   8.0   2.29     .94   .66  1.03  1.13
.97  Ausar Thompson  Det   286   18.2  .185   6.9   1.41     .82  1.08  1.13   .84
.97  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS   178   27.5  .262   9.8   2.93     .91   .95   .88  1.09

.85   Chet Holmgren  OKC   184   26.6  .288   5.6   2.41     .90  1.08   .65   .92
.84   Jarrett Allen  Cle   249   20.6  .187   4.1   1.65     .85   .95   .76   .86
.79   Paul George    Phl   329   16.2  .087   3.9   1.02     .78   .59   .98   .70
.75   Marcus Smart   LAL   277   16.2  .104   4.4   1.32     .66   .59   .87   .76
.73   James Harden   Cle   331   16.2  .074   1.3   1.22     .78   .50   .70   .84

xyzW    player        tm   min    PER  WS/48  BPM   e480    perW   WS   bpmW  eWin
.72   Jaylen Brown   Bos   249   19.0  .082   2.9   1.75     .76   .42   .66   .91
.72  Alperen Şengün  Hou   232   20.2  .123   3.1   1.75     .77   .58   .63   .85
.71   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   173   22.1  .235   8.2   1.69     .66   .83   .76   .61
.70 Donovan Mitchell Cle   318   16.6  .066   0.4   1.39     .78   .43   .57   .92
.70   Amen Thompson  Hou   264   18.1  .140   2.3   1.28     .75   .76   .64   .71

.68   Joel Embiid    Phl   171   24.2  .126   5.8   2.35     .74   .44   .62   .84
.67  Stephon Castle  SAS   216   18.4  .188   2.0   1.74     .63   .83   .50   .78
.67  Jul. Champagnie SAS   196   17.6  .237   7.2   1.13     .53   .95   .80   .46
.67  Is. Hartenstein OKC   146   25.9  .346   5.9   1.99     .69  1.03   .53   .60
.66  Collin M-Boyles Tor   191   23.5  .192   5.6   1.33     .79   .75   .67   .53

[Mike G]

Series overall strength = total/avg BPM of participants.
Round 1:

Code: Select all

tBPM   win    BPM   BPM   lose   W-L
1.57   SAS   3.07   0.06   Por   4-1
1.56   OKC   3.69  -0.57   Phx   4-0
1.56   Phl   1.24   1.87   Bos   4-3
1.55   Det   2.18   0.92   Orl   4-3
1.39   Min   1.97   0.81   Den   4-2
1.19   Cle   1.36   1.01   Tor   4-3
1.17   NYK   3.31  -0.97   Atl   4-2
0.16   LAL   0.47  -0.15   Hou   4-2

rd 2 thus far:

Code: Select all

tBPM   win    BPM   BPM   lose   W-L
1.98   Det   2.46   1.49   Cle   2-1
1.38   OKC   3.82  -1.06   LAL   3-0
1.37   SAS   2.45   0.29   Min   2-2
1.07   NYK   3.81  -1.67   Phl   4-0

Pistons and Cavs both look better in this round.
Spurs and Wolves (esp.) both look worse.

[Mike G]

Game eWins.
Cavs-Pistons thru 5 games:

Code: Select all

Det eW:   1    2    3    4    5    Cle eW:   1    2    3    4    5
Cade    .10  .15  .13  .01  .18   Mitchell .07  .17  .21  .23  .03
Harris  .09  .14  .05  .12  .02    Mobley  .10  .04  .10  .16  .14
Ausar   .10  .10  .07 -.02  .05    Harden  .11 -.03  .12  .17  .16
Reed                   .19  .07    Allen  -.02  .16  .11  .03  .11
D Rob   .10  .13  .07 -.04 -.01    Strus   .10 -.03  .01  .01  .13
Duren   .10  .01  .04 -.01  .06   Schröder .01 -.01  .06  .02  .00
LeVert       .03  .01  .16 -.01    Ellis   .02  .01  .00  .00  .00
Jenkins .09  .08 -.03 -.01  .06    Tyson  -.01  .01  .01  .01 -.01
Stewart .03 -.01  .00  .02  .05    Wade    .00  .04 -.04 -.03  .01
Holland .03  .00  .01  .00  .00            
.total  .64  .64  .42  .36  .44   . total  .36  .36  .58  .64  .56

Spurs-Wolves:

Code: Select all

Min eW:   1    2    3    4    5    SAS eW:   1    2    3    4    5
Edwards .12 -.05  .20  .20  .01    Wemby   .10  .23  .37  .02  .29
Reid    .07  .02  .11  .09  .02    Castle  .14  .13  .04  .10  .14
Gobert  .09 -.04  .10  .13  .00    Harper  .10  .08  .02  .17  .10
McDa'ls .05  .06  .03  .00  .04    Fox    -.04  .10  .05  .12  .10
Dosunmu                .02  .12    Vassell .09  .06  .05  .06  .02
Conley  .12 -.03 -.01  .05  .01    Champ'e .07  .09  .07  .06 -.02
Randle  .04  .02  .00 -.01  .05    Johnson .01  .05  .04 -.01  .12
Clark   .01 -.02  .03 -.04  .00    Kornet -.02  .06 -.01  .05 -.01
Hyland  .01 -.02  .00  .00 -.02    Barnes  .02  .03 -.01 -.01  .00
Shannon .03  .02 -.04  .00 -.05    Bryant      -.02  .01 -.06  .02
.total  .53  .07  .37  .51  .18   . total  .47  .93  .63  .49  .82

[Mike G]

Conference Finals pre-previews, team BPM in rounds 1 and 2:

Code: Select all

OKC             SAS
vs Phx  3.69    vs Por  3.07
vs LAL  3.46    vs Min  3.20

NYK            Det            Cle
vs Atl  3.25   vs Orl  2.18   vs Tor  1.36
vs Phl  3.81  (vs Cle  2.36) (vs Det  1.61)

Det-Cle are 3-3.
Knicks have been 5-6 ppg better than Pistons and 8-9 over Cavs.
Spurs are closing the gap on Thunder, but J Dub may be back and close to full speed. Then, too, Wemby may not miss games.

[Crow]

IF Thunder lose, it will be heavily "because" of some combination of about 7 Thunder names and probably 3-5 Spurs. Will try to sort that out, if it happens.

[Mike G]

2nd round top players. PER and BPM converted to Wins and all scaled to total 21 (4+4+6+7).
These are averaged and divided by team games played for xyzWins per game. No-shows are zeroes.
An avg player has to go every minute to avg .100 xyz/G

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xyz/G  player         tm  min  PER  WS/48  BPM  e480     pW   WS   bW   eW
.164  Karl-A Towns    NY   94  32.1  .442 16.4  3.27    .58  .83  .63  .64
.162  Jalen Brunson   NY  138  27.5  .330  6.5  2.26    .69  .91  .50  .65
.155  Ajay Mitchell  OKC  121  29.3  .327  8.1  2.55    .66  .79  .49  .64
.154  Chet Holmgren  OKC  130  27.3  .299  6.8  2.43    .65  .78  .48  .66
.141  Vi. Wembanyama  SA  176  25.7  .246  7.0  2.86    .80  .87  .66 1.05

.132  Mikal Bridges   NY  129  23.6  .301  7.7  1.58    .53  .78  .51  .42
.130  Evan Mobley    Cle  260  19.5  .165  7.4  1.65    .80  .85 1.01  .89
.123  Stephon Castle  SA  186  22.0  .267  5.0  2.04    .68  .99  .59  .79
.120  Do. Mitchell   Cle  258  21.0  .149  3.1  1.91    .89  .77  .66 1.02
.101  Rui Hachimura   LA  157  17.5  .114  6.1   .88    .41  .36  .55  .29

xyz/G  player         tm  min  PER  WS/48  BPM  e480     pW   WS   bW   eW
.101  LeBron James    LA  152  18.9  .048  3.8  1.55    .44  .14  .42  .49
.099  Shai G-A       OKC  136  20.7  .146  0.9  1.76    .46  .40  .26  .50
.098  Jarrett Allen  Cle  204  21.9  .211  4.2  1.55    .75  .86  .59  .66
.096 Is. Hartenstein OKC  110  20.5  .237  5.0  1.61    .37  .52  .35  .37
.090  Dylan Harper    SA  150  21.6  .252  5.2  1.61    .54  .75  .48  .50

.085 Jul. Champagnie  SA  167  16.8  .244  5.2  1.10    .41  .81  .54  .38
.080  James Harden   Cle  265  14.9  .070  1.2  1.27    .52  .37  .53  .70
.077 Duncan Robinson Det  171  18.1  .187  8.4  1.00    .47  .64  .71  .35
.074  Naz Reid       Min  175  16.8  .126  4.7  1.00    .42  .44  .54  .36
.071  Josh Hart       NY  139  13.1  .129  1.0  1.01    .21  .36  .27  .29

xyz/G  player         tm  min  PER  WS/48  BPM  e480     pW   WS   bW   eW
.070 Cade Cunningham Det  289  14.2  .027  0.2  1.08    .52  .15  .48  .65
.069  OG Anunoby      NY   68  23.8  .282  7.8  1.60    .28  .38  .27  .23
.067  Devin Vassell   SA  188  13.2  .162  2.1   .83    .29  .61  .42  .32
.066  De'Aaron Fox    SA  189  14.6  .120 -0.6  1.31    .36  .45  .27  .52
.066 Anthony Edwards Min  205  15.6  .018  1.8  1.12    .44  .07  .45  .48

.065  Kelly Oubre    Phl  128  17.4  .068  2.2   .87    .33  .17  .29  .23
.065  Ausar Thompson Det  198  15.2  .108  3.2  1.03    .41  .43  .51  .42
.061  Jared McCain   OKC   58  25.8  .291  8.9  1.50    .27  .34  .25  .18
.057  Tobias Harris  Det  237  13.4  .076 -0.2   .93    .38  .36  .37  .46
.056  Paul Reed      Det   65  37.0  .306 11.7  3.02    .48  .40  .34  .41

Games: Det and Cle 7; SA and Min 6; LA, OKC, NY, Phl: 4

[Mike G]

Best single games of round 2

Code: Select all

game  G  Player   tm   tm  opp  opp  GmSc   PM  min   TS%  Pt  Rb As St Bk TO
24.9  3  Wemby   SAS  115  108  Min  37.9  20.5  37  .838  39  15  1  1  5  1
19.7  4  Harden  Cle  112  103  Det  25.6  16.7  37  .668  24   0 11  3  1  2
19.6  4 Mitchell Cle  112  103  Det  32.1  12.9  37  .660  43   5  2  1  0  1
18.6  7  Mobley  Cle  125   94  Det  24.4  14.8  36  .708  21  12  6  2  2  2
18.4  6  Castle  SAS  139  109  Min  30.7  16.6  30  .858  32  11  6  0  0  2
18.1  1  Brunson NYK  137   98  Phl  30.6  12.9  31  .813  35   1  3  2  0  1
17.5  5  Wemby   SAS  126   97  Min  25.7  13.9  33  .625  27  17  5  0  3  4

[Mike G]

MVP Contenders seem to not be doing so well in the postseason so far.
Eight players received at least one vote, Luka and Kawhi did not make the playoffs, and 4 others made the b-r.com top 10 mvp-likely list.
Regular season rates on the left, playoffs on the right:

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mvp?   vPts   PER  WS/48   BPM      G   PER   WS/48  BPM
Shai    939   30.8  .323  11.7      9   26.2  .246   6.1
Jokic   634   32.3  .316  14.2      6   22.7  .133   8.0
Wemby   569   29.9  .257  10.7     11   29.3  .298  10.1
Cade    117   21.6  .174   6.3     14   18.2  .098   3.4
J Brown  89   22.0  .135   3.3      7   18.5  .078   2.9

Mitchell  1   22.9  .169   5.1     14   18.4  .110   1.2
Duren     0   26.1  .266   5.0     14   13.8  .094  -1.7
Murray    0   21.8  .173   4.1      6   14.7  .009  -0.8
Durant    0   21.1  .180   4.5      1   13.8  .005  -1.7
Holmgren  0   21.6  .219   4.2      9   23.4  .243   4.9

averages      25.0  .221   6.9     avg  19.9  .131   3.2

We expect dropoff in PER and WS rates, but the BPM drops are nearly universal also.
Perhaps fatigue is hitting the biggest the hardest? Additional minutes should also create more WS and VORP, all else being equal.
Per game WS and VORP, RS and PO:

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mvp?      G   WS/G  vorp/G    G  WS/G  vorp/G
Shai     68   .22   .115      9   .19   .075
Jokic    65   .23   .142      6   .11   .099
Wemby    64   .16   .094     11   .19   .093
Cade     64   .12   .072     14   .08   .056
J Brown  71   .10   .046      7   .06   .044

Mitchell 70   .12   .060     14   .08   .029
Duren    70   .16   .050     14   .06   .002
Murray   75   .13   .055      6   .01   .012
Durant   78   .14   .060      1   .00   .003
Holmgren 69   .13   .045      9   .16   .056

averages      .150  .074     avg  .095  .047
weighted by PO games avg     91   .105  .048

Weighting by games played so Durant's case does not deform the curve as much as those Pistons, say.
The difference is not much.