2026 Playoff Summaries

[DSMok1]

I think the primary reason is that in the playoffs the opponents spend a lot of time crafting custom game plans to take away the opponent's top players and preferred actions. In almost all cases this involves the other team's MVP candidate being significantly limited on offense by the defensive game plan and forcing the remaining players on their team to take on a greater role or greater responsibility than in the regular season.

[Mike G]

Those can all be factors, and offsetting those are perhaps better refereeing (or more protective of stars), better teammates (thus Less pressure), no back-to-backs.
Last year's playoffs did not show this RS-to-PO statistical collapse. There were 12 who received mvp votes, and their RS stats held very well thru the postseason.

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'25   PER   WS/48  BPM
RS   23.7   .190   6.3
PO   23.5   .177   7.2

'26   PER   WS/48  BPM
RS   25.0   .221   6.9
PO   19.9   .131   3.2

The minutes-weighted PO BPM is still 7.2
I suspect the 2025 results are more typical. Scoring is way down from the RS, and it's largely due to elite players not measuring up.
Others not included in the 2026 sample come to mind: Reaves, Edwards, Randle, Maxey, Booker, Avdija, Clingan, Nickeil, A Gordon, D White, Ingram ... with major dropoffs across the board.
These summary stats bring the whole field up to average: poor shooting and turnovers are attributed to stronger defense.

[Mike G]

A wee bit late: Leaders thru 2 rounds.

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xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
1.82  .182   Karl-A Towns   NYK   285   30.4  .393  14.4   3.03    1.63   2.24   1.72   1.80
1.80  .129   Evan Mobley    Cle   494   20.7  .189   6.6   1.79    1.66   1.86   1.80   1.85
1.64  .117  Cade Cunningham Det   572   18.2  .098   3.4   1.71    1.58   1.12   1.52   2.04
1.54  .154  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS   288   27.9  .275   9.3   3.00    1.47   1.58   1.29   1.80
1.39  .139   Jalen Brunson  NYK   347   23.9  .253   4.5   2.12    1.44   1.75   1.04   1.53

1.37  .171   OG Anunoby     NYK   282   25.9  .331  10.0   2.03    1.30   1.86   1.32   1.19
1.35  .096   Jarrett Allen  Cle   403   21.3  .199   4.1   1.63    1.42   1.60   1.16   1.37
1.32  .094   Do. Mitchell   Cle   503   18.4  .110   1.2   1.63    1.42   1.10   1.00   1.70
1.28  .159   Shai G-A       OKC   279   28.0  .280   6.2   2.32    1.43   1.56    .98   1.35
1.26  .090   James Harden   Cle   524   16.5  .095   2.2   1.34    1.23    .99   1.20   1.46

xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
1.25  .089   Tobias Harris  Det   485   16.5  .134   2.1   1.43    1.14   1.30   1.09   1.44
1.18  .084  Ausar Thompson  Det   427   16.4  .138   5.3   1.20    1.00   1.18   1.38   1.07
1.15  .104  Stephon Castle  SAS   350   19.5  .201   3.1   1.79    1.08   1.40    .90   1.31
1.11  .111   LeBron James   LAL   384   18.7  .088   3.0   1.84    1.11    .67    .97   1.47
1.10  .100   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   437   18.5  .069   2.8   1.41    1.24    .60   1.08   1.28

1.09  .137   Chet Holmgren  OKC   251   25.9  .274   6.2   2.16    1.16   1.37    .88   1.13
1.08  .154  Scottie Barnes  Tor   273   22.8  .174   8.1   1.97    1.06    .95   1.12   1.12
1.00  .167   Jayson Tatum   Bos   218   23.9  .212   8.9   2.54     .90    .92    .95   1.15
.98   .089   De'Aaron Fox   SAS   366   17.0  .159   1.5   1.51     .91   1.16    .76   1.15
.97   .138  Paolo Banchero  Orl   273   20.0  .108   6.5   2.08     .87    .59    .98   1.18

xyzW  xyz/G   player         tm   min   PER   WS/48  BPM   e484    pWin    WS    bWin   eWin
.96   .159   Nikola Jokić   Den   237   22.7  .133   8.0   2.29     .91    .63    .96   1.13
.93   .085  Jul. Champagnie SAS   310   16.4  .229   5.7   1.06     .72   1.42   1.04    .68
.89   .089   Rui Hachimura  LAL   386   15.6  .134   3.6    .85     .83   1.03   1.05    .69
.88   .080   Dylan Harper   SAS   277   19.9  .227   4.0   1.37     .88   1.26    .79    .79
.87   .109   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   238   23.0  .234   3.9   1.86     .93   1.11    .67    .92

.87   .124   Joel Embiid    Phl   233   23.7  .116   6.0   2.15     .95    .54    .80   1.05
.87   .087   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   292   17.9  .146   5.4   1.35     .79    .85    .95    .82
.83   .064  Duncan Robinson Det   383   13.3  .139   3.9    .74     .61   1.06   1.08    .59
.76   .096  Is. Hartenstein OKC   204   22.8  .273   4.5   1.72     .79   1.11    .61    .73
.76   .076   Mikal Bridges  NYK   292   16.7  .209   2.8    .97     .70   1.22    .72    .59

[Crow]

Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.

A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.

[Mike G]

Opponent adjusted could be an additional step.

I've experimented with that, and in this rendition "wins" still add up to # of games played. The BPM component gives a bonus for opponent strength, while PER punishes team defense (relative to offense) and WS over-rewards winning margin. All occasionally get it 'right'.

A sort by xyz/G could make quality comparisons easier.

Per game is included for the curious.
Quality matters more when it's sustained. Last year, Giannis had far and away the best PO rates, but for only 5 games. No one remembers or cares; and winning does matter.

[Mike G]

MVP vs wannaVP
Thru 5 games of the WCF
Shai looks like a model of consistency, while Wemby may take 20 shots or 4 shots, get 20 rebounds or 4 rebounds.
Here are their regular season and playoff averages and their average deviations (from their averages) in each interval.

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Wemby  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM      Shai  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM
RS     32.4   122   100   22.4  10.7      RS    33.5   134   108   26.4  11.7
avedev  5.2   17.1  11.0   7.4   7.9     avedev  3.7   18.6   8.9   5.9   6.4
                                    
Wemby  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM      Shai  USG%   ORtg  DRtg  GmSc   BPM
PO     27.6   121    99   21.0   9.9      PO    32.0   125   114   22.3   6.3
avedev  4.8   15.1  13.9   6.2   6.4     avedev  3.0   15.6   7.7   5.6   3.5
all **  4.7   18.2  14.4   8.2   8.3    

Wemby's playoff avedev omits his two 12-minute games (concussion and ejection) which were distinctly his 2 worst so far.
** - includes those 2 "games".

D-Rating is largely a Team measure, so Shai works with a consistent system, while SAS defense = Wemby defense, in large part.
In RS, Wemby's BPM variance was 23% bigger than Shai's. In PO almost twice as much.